Means and Variations in Global Precipitation During the Satellite Era ( )

Transcription

1 Means and Variations in Global Precipitation During the Satellite Era ( ) Robert Adler Guojun Gu Matt Sapiano Jian-Jian Wang University of Maryland

2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Climatology ( ) mm/d GPCP is an often-used analysis based on satellite and gauge data (1979-near present). No TRMM, GPM or Cloudsat data are in the current GPCP. Adler et al., 2003 J. Hydromet Huffman et al., 2009 GRL

3 Absolute Magnitude of Global Precipitation Ocean Land Ocean + Land Precipitation 2.90 mm/d 2.24 mm/d 2.69 mm/d * Current GPCP global long-term number is 2.69 mm/d +/- ~7% With the error based on variations among different estimates (including TRMM) (Adler et al JAMC) But, how well do these very large-scale precipitation numbers compare with more recent data sets and fit in with other components of the water cycle? * New values based on not-released GPCP V2.3 (in testing) slightly higher (~1%) over ocean

4 Global Mean Annual Water Cycle Global mean water fluxes (1,000 km 3 /yr) at the start of the 21 st century GPCP Land Value GPCP Ocean Value [Adjusted upward by ~ 1 %] [Adjusted upward by ~ 5%] Best guess estimates from observations and data integrating models When water balance is enforced, uncertainty decreases From Rodell et al., 2015 J. Clim.

5 Tropical Mean (Ocean) Rainfall Estimates There seems to be a remote sensing consensus emerging of the mean magnitude of tropical ocean rain this doesn t mean that this is the correct answer, but that current remote sensing information (TRMM and CloudSat) does not lead to significant missed rain in the tropics. *Adler et al JMSJ **Behrangi et al., 2014 JClim

6 Global Mean (Ocean) Rainfall Estimates 60N-60S (ocean) GPCP 2.97 mm/d PR + CloudSat; AMSR + CloudSat Behrangi et al JClim 3.13 [GPCP + ~ 5%] GPCP global ocean number still seems reasonable, but needs to be examined again with improved data (e.g., GPM, etc.). If there are faults in the global precipitation magnitude (e.g., underestimation) it probably doesn t have to do with light rain or snow, but perhaps with intense convective rainfall in the tropics.

7 GPM First Year Precipitation from Passive Microwave (GMI) and Radar (DPR) GPM Composite March 2014 Feb Ocean GPM Preliminary GPM Products GPM slightly higher than GPCP in tropics GPM lower in extra-tropics GPCP March 2014 Feb N GPCP GMI Equator 45 S Ocean Zonal Mean (March 2014-Feb. 2015)

8 Variations in Global Surface Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Inter-decadal Shifts and ENSO and Volcano Effects Global Surface Temperature Climate Shift Surface Temperature: Trend:.15 C/decade ENSO: 0.2C amplitude Volcano: 0.4C amplitude Global Precipitation Precipitation: Trend: ~ zero ENSO:.05 mm/d (2%) amplitude 9%/K Volcano:.09 mm/d (3%) amplitude 8%/K New GPCP V2.3 Beta Test

9 Patterns of Trends ( ) Surface Temperature from GISS Water Vapor from SSMI (ocean) C/decade mm/decade mm/d/decade Precipitation Trend from GPCP Is this the pattern of precipitation change related to global warming? 9

10 Global Ocean Surface Temperature, Water Vapor and Precipitation Residual Trends (ENSO and Volcano Signals Removed) SST Climate Shift Column Water Vapor Precipitation With inter-annual ENSO and volcano signals removed, the interdecadal signal (climate shift/warming hiatus) is more obvious in surface temperature and water vapor fields, but not in global precipitation. Shift associated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO)

11 Variations of ENSO, PDO and AMO Indices During Satellite Era Nino 3.4 ENSO Climate Shift PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

12 Precipitation Trend Patterns During Satellite Era GPCP Observed PDO AMO No PDO or AMO Estimate of Precip. Trend Pattern due to Global Warming Technique uses PDO and AMO indices and regression analyses Gu, Adler and Huffman (2015) Climate Dynamics

13 Trends in Global Precipitation During Satellite Era ( ) Observed Trends Although the trend in global total precipitation is near zero (in GPCP analysis), the pattern of observed regional trends (left panel) is related to Global Warming (GW) plus inter-decadal signals such as PDO and AMO (ENSO impact is small). Bottom left panel shows trend pattern after PDO effect is removed, a better estimate of of GW impact on precipitation regional trends and also a pattern closer to that predicted by CMIP climate models (bottom right), but with smaller magnitudes by factor of 2-3. Estimated Trends related to Global Warming Trends from CMIP ensemble mm/d/decade Gu, Adler and Huffman (2015) Climate Dynamics 13

14 Summary 1. Satellite era has resulted in a mature view of the magnitude and distribution of precipitation across our planet, although there is still much to be done in terms of accuracy, length of record and space and time resolutions. 2. Recent missions (e.g., TRMM, Cloudsat) confirm earlier GPCP planetary climatological mean of 2.7 mm/d, but this absolute magnitude still requires study. GPM will aid significantly in next steps. 3. Planetary-scale variations of precipitation related to ENSO and volcanoes are evident in the record, although no significant trend in global mean precipitation has been found for this era. Water vapor on a global scale has increased with temperature at about a Clausius-Clapyron (~8%/C), very different than precipitation (~ 0%/C); however, at inter-annual time scales water vapor and precipitation vary with similar rates (~10%/C) for both ENSO and volcano events. 4. Climate shift (warming hiatus) starting in late 1990s complicates assessment of trend pattern of precipitation. Observed trend pattern is shown to be combination of effects of PDO, AMO and global warming signal. Estimated GW signal derived from observations agrees better with climate model results.

15 Trend Estimated Trend Distribution for Satellite Era due to Global Warming Wet getting wetter and dry getting drier in most areas with a few exceptions Climatology

16 Trends in Precipitation ( ) due to Global Warming [with aerosol effect taken out] Gauges over land; reconst -ruction over water Climate model forced by observed SST, etc. Climate model forced by CO 2 Composite, i.e., mean of the three other fields Gu and Adler (2015) J. Clim.

17