05 September Crown copyright 2013 Dstl

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2 Wargaming at Dstl Topic 2: Using wargames for military purpose Mike Larner DSTL/PUB75722 Programme Manager Strategy & Capability

3 Defence Science & Technology Laboratory MOD s science and technology experts 3700 staff (including ~100 military & ~500 analysts) Trading fund recovering costs through projects Carries out sensitive S&T work that is best done in Government Provides independent, impartial S&T advice to MOD and more than 40 government departments and agencies Scientists & analysts deployed overseas to support operations, and across Defence to support decision makers Drawing support from a wide supplier base from very small companies to world-class universities, large defence companies, government departments and other nations Formulates and delivers the MOD research programme ~ 400M/year 60% carried out externally Rapid Campaign Assessment Toolset

4 WORLD WAR II Original wartime OR groups Evolution of OA within MOD POST- WAR OR groups at operational HQs OR groups within Service ministries 1965 OA groups under Service Chief Scientists DOAE R & D Establishment Assessment Div 1992 OA groups at Fleet, ARRC, RAF Strike Cmd D Science staffs DOAC Operational Studies Sector, DRA 1995 Centre for Defence Analysis, DERA PPP 2001 QinetiQ Consulting Analysis capabilities within Dstl

5 Questions we get asked

6 OA Techniques

7 OA Techniques Real operations Exercises, trials & experiments Wargames Complex simulations Simple simulations Abstract methods Realistic Abstract Slow, costly Fast, cheap

8 Dstl examples of wargaming BG Wargame (60s/70s) Lego GRANBY (1990) WISE (00s) PSOM ISAF (2011)

9 WORLD WAR II POST- WAR Original wartime OR groups OR groups at operational HQs Evolution of OA within MOD OR groups within Service ministries FASTHEX, ImageAir, THUNDER, TAMARI DIVWG, IDAHEX, BGWG, JANUS UK, Manual WGs 1965 DRYAD WGs OA groups under Service Chief Scientists DOAE R & D Establishment Assessment Div CAEN 1992 OA groups at Fleet, ARRC, RAF Strike Cmd D Science staffs DOAC Operational Studies Sector, DRA 1995 PPP 2001 QinetiQ Consulting Centre for Defence Analysis, DERA PSOM, WISE, CAEN, Analysis capabilities within Dstl

10 My version of modern history WWII Cold War Blitzkrieg; Carriers; Strategic air war; Submarines; Amphibious; Intelligence; Nuclear weapons MAD; People's war Start of the computing revolution Lots of Wargames Focus on Combat, C4ISTAR and Logs s time

11 My version of modern history WWII Cold War Blitzkrieg; Carriers; Strategic air war; Submarines; Amphibious; Intelligence; Nuclear weapons MAD; People's war Single scenario NATO vs. Warsaw Pact Start of the computing revolution Lots of Wargames Focus on Combat, C4ISTAR and Logs Focus on all-out conflict / one type of warfare Relatively few variables Golden age for wargaming? s time

12 My version of modern history WWII Cold War Blitzkrieg; Carriers; Strategic air war; Submarines; Amphibious; Intelligence; Nuclear weapons MAD; People's war Start of the computing revolution Lots of Wargames Focus on Combat, C4ISTAR and Logs US Ascendancy One superpower Intervention: Gulf War I OOTW: Rwanda, Bosnia, Darfur, Kosovo, Haiti, Sierra Leone, East Timor Wide range of scenarios Complex combat simulations Advances in computing: desktop computing; databases; spreadsheets... Decline in wargaming Emergence of population centric modelling Multiple MoEs s 1990s time

13 My version of modern history WWII Cold War Blitzkrieg; Carriers; Strategic air war; Submarines; Amphibious; Intelligence; Nuclear weapons MAD; People's war Start of the computing revolution Lots of Wargames Focus on Combat, C4ISTAR and Logs US Ascendancy One superpower Intervention: Gulf War I OOTW: Rwanda, Bosnia, Darfur, Kosovo, Haiti, Sierra Leone, East Timor Wide range of scenarios Complex combat simulations Advances in computing: desktop computing; databases; spreadsheets... Decline in wargaming Emergence of population centric modelling Multiple MoEs Multiple scenarios & different types of operation Many new variables Physics of combat well understood/modelled in detail but gaps starting to emerge Decline in wargaming? s 1990s time

14 My version of modern history WWII Cold War Blitzkrieg; Carriers; Strategic air war; Submarines; Amphibious; Intelligence; Nuclear weapons MAD; People's war Start of the computing revolution Lots of Wargames Focus on Combat, C4ISTAR and Logs WWII Cold War Blitzkrieg; Carriers; Strategic air war; Submarines; Amphibious; Intelligence; Nuclear weapons; People's war US Ascendancy One superpower Intervention: Gulf War I OOTW: Rwanda, Bosnia, Darfur, Kosovo, Haiti, Sierra Leone, East Timor Wide range of scenarios Complex combat simulations Advances in computing: desktop computing; databases; spreadsheets... Decline in wargaming Emergence of population centric modelling Multiple MoEs Post 9/11 & Arab Spring War on terror Afghanistan & Iraq Syria, Egypt, Libya, Mali, Chechnya, Dagestan, Yemen, Colombia, Mexico CT, COIN, MASD, UORs Less use of complex combat simulations Lots of novel & ad hoc methods: Social Network Analysis; Agent based & System Dynamic approaches; spreadsheets for all... S2O analysis (campaign monitoring) Drive to understand influence, perceptions and behaviours s 1990s time

15 My version of modern history WWII Cold War Blitzkrieg; Carriers; Strategic air war; Submarines; Amphibious; Intelligence; Nuclear weapons MAD; People's war Start of the computing revolution Lots of Wargames Focus on Combat, C4ISTAR and Logs US Ascendancy One superpower Intervention: Gulf War I OOTW: Rwanda, Bosnia, Darfur, Kosovo, Haiti, Sierra Leone, East Timor Wide range of scenarios Complex combat simulations Advances in computing: desktop computing; databases; spreadsheets... Decline in wargaming Expanding applications Expanding complexity Post 9/11 & Arab Spring War on terror Afghanistan & Iraq Syria, Egypt, Libya, Mali, Chechnya, Dagestan, Yemen, Colombia, Mexico CT, COIN, MASD, UORs Less use of complex combat simulations Lots of novel & ad hoc methods: Social Network Analysis; Agent based & System Dynamic approaches; spreadsheets for all... Need Emergence for flexible of population models/approaches to centric modelling understand/represent Multiple MoEs range of operations and associated threats Evolution of the hybrid environment Start of a revival in wargaming? - Is wargaming a sensible approach? S2O analysis (campaign monitoring) Drive to understand influence, perceptions and behaviours Start of a revival in wargaming? s 1990s time

16 Where next? Today time

17 Where next? Increasing challenge to the West - Space and Cyberspace, Unmanned systems (Drones), Stealth Anti-Access Area-Denial (A2AD) - Large or massed ground forces, major ports, and bases are likely to become highly vulnerable to enemy guided artillery, mortars, and missiles. -Integrated Air Defence Systems (IADs) Traditional approaches to overseas power projection of conventional forces may grow too difficult and costly to sustain. Creating a hostile environment = power / profit for a few + risk to intervening power Today Future... time

18 Where next? Increasing challenge to the West - Space and Cyberspace, Unmanned systems (Drones), Stealth Anti-Access Area-Denial (A2AD) - Large or massed ground forces, major ports, and bases are likely to become highly vulnerable to enemy guided artillery, mortars, and missiles. -Integrated Air Defence Systems (IADs) Traditional approaches to overseas power projection of conventional forces may grow too difficult and costly to sustain. Creating a hostile environment = power / profit The conduct of war is likely to change more fundamentally between now and 2050 than it has since the early 1990s -As others catch up, can our lead be sustained? Most future adversaries are likely to for continue a few + risk to intervening the power trend away from the concept of a 'decisive/conventional battle - asymmetric/indirect approaches are still evolving - conventional military technology will remain battlewinning, but will rarely be war-winning Today Future... time

19 Other challenges... Providing versatile, agile and battle-winning armed forces and a smaller, more professional Ministry of Defence Strategic Defence & Security Review 2015

20 Summary Dstl is the main provider of OA to MOD although we are increasing our use of industry & academia Wargaming is one of the tools we have always used but we do a lot less wargaming than we used to because of the increase in computer power because it seems to have fallen out of favour over time? Consequently Dstl s wargaming capability is fragile pockets of expertise (PSOM, WISE, CAEN) some investment in facilities/approaches (PDW wargaming facility, RCAT, pol-mil gaming) However, the future looks to be at least as complex as today lots of issues that require understanding rather than calculation resolving conflicts (politics & economics) rather than winning battles (physics & tactics) Consequently, we perceive a need to do more wargaming in future proven, structured, responsive, inclusive & relatively low cost(?) approach to handling messy & poorly understood problems

21 What is the way forward? Dstl does not really have a strategy for developing our wargaming capability I would like to start a debate What wargaming capabilities does MOD/Dstl need? How do we develop the people, approaches, facilities etc? What is the blend of internal (Dstl) & external (industry/academia) effort? How can Connections help? How much is it going to cost me?

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