The National Transport Model Predictions on Trends in Road Transport

Transcription

1 The National Transport Model Predictions on Trends in Road Transport Philipp Thiessen ITEA Division, Department for Transport

2 Structure of presentation What is the National Transport Model? How does the National Transport Model work? NTM uses over time Traffic and emission forecasts and their key drivers Sub-national use of NTM forecasts

3 What is the National Transport Model for? Forecasts the main transport indicators of congestion, pollution and patronage Supports policy making by providing a multi-modal framework for understanding the impact of different scenarios. Recent use includes the Eddington Study, Road pricing feasibility study, and recent road traffic forecasts.

4 What are the capabilities of the National Transport Model? A strategic policy and scenario testing tool Contains all trips and traffic in GB. Operates using detailed network models But, not suited to analysis of individual roads/areas. A multi-modal model Comprising 6 modes: car driver, car passenger, rail, bus, walk and cycle. Provides Projections of transport demand and emissions Produces forecasts of the number of person trips by distance, journey purpose and mode Forecasts always include an element of uncertainty But, peer review has shown the NTM is fit for purpose!

5 How does the National Transport Model work? NTM is a 4-stage multi-modal model It estimates demand through a bottom up model of travel behaviour How many trips do people make Where do people make trips to and from What mode do they use to make those trips What route is chosen across the network

6 Overview of the National Transport Model Socio-Demographic Inputs Land use Employment Population Income Driving licenses Car purchase price Car ownership model Trip end model Freight Model Road Traffic Data Traffic Counts Fuel Costs Vehicle Efficiencies Vehicle Emissions Road Traffic Model Traffic Growth Congestion Walk Multi Modal Demand Model Cycle Number and location of trips Rail Growth Overcrowding Rail Data Ticket Sales Revenue Timetable and rolling stock data Rail Model Freight Policy Road Policy Bus Local Transport Policy Rail Policy

7 NTM Use over time In its first form, the NTM was developed solely for traffic forecasting. More recently: focus on congestion and the economic costs of time lost in traffic (example of road pricing) With the environment being a key concern, modelling of transport emissions now a key focus.

8 Focus on Congestion: marginal social cost road pricing Pricing on the roads offers potential benefits of up to 28 billion a year in 2025 Compared to 2025 without road pricing Traffic & CO2-7% Congestion - 50% Benefits come from getting relative prices right not pricing everyone off the road 2025 No road pricing 2025 With road pricing

9 Emissions in the NTM Speed/flow curves determine speeds, link by link Speed/emission curves for each vehicle/fuel type Curves move down over time with improved engine technology At link level and for different time periods speeds and vehicle flows determine emissions Total emissions are the aggregation over road & vehicle types and time periods.

10 NTM Forecasts England, Forecasted Changes 2003 to 2025 Scenario Traffic (Vehicle km) Congestion Av. Journey Time CO 2 Road Traffic Emissions PM 10 NO X High 39% 48% 7% -11% -50% -58% 2025 forecasts Central 31% 28% 4% -5% -53% -60% Low 20% 19% 3% 1% -55% -62% Traffic and congestion continue growing; CO2 to stabilise and air pollutants continue falling as engine improvements filter through to entire fleet.

11 NTM Emissions Forecast CO Index (1980=100) Historic Data NO X Forecast PM

12 Key Drivers of Forecast Continued traffic growth, but at a slowing rate: Rising income, rising, but ageing population and falling cost of driving (fuel economy improvements) Carbon: Fuel economy improvements, biofuels Pollutants: Increasingly stringent pollutant standards and old, dirty cars dropping out of the fleet

13 Use of NTM at sub-national level The NTM is essentially a national GB model and peerreviewed as fit for purpose at this level. All assumptions are set at national average (e.g. vehicle fleet). While results can be supplied at broad regional level, they would not reflect regional variations in assumptions We are currently evaluating the accuracy of sub-national results through a comparison to regional models.

14 Where to Find NTM Outputs Eddington Study support paper 2006 Transport Demand to 2025 & The Economic Case for Road Pricing and Investment channexes/researchannexesvolume3/transportdemand Road Transport Forecasts for England for link to regional forecast and more detail on NTM