Chapter 1 International economy
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1 Chapter International economy Executive Board June. GDP growth Seasonally adjusted volume growth on previous quarter. Per cent,,,, -, Spain -, Germany Trading partners - Q Q Q Q Q Q - Sources: EcoWin/ Dept. of Commerce, ESRI, Deutsche Bundesbank, EUR-OP/EUROSTAT, INE and NB Executive Board June
2 . Quarterly change in GDP Annualised contribution to growth in volume. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent 9 Private consumption Stocks Public consump. and investm. Private investment Net exports GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges Bank Executive Board June -. Quarterly change in euro area GDP Contribution to growth in volume. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent Net exports Public cons. Private cons. Stocks Invest. GDP - - Source: EcoWin/EUR-OP/EUROSTAT Executive Board June
3 . Quarterly change in GDP in Contribution to growth in volume. Per cent Private consumption Net exports Stocks Private investment Public consump. and investm. GDP Source: EcoWin/Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) - Executive Board June. Net exports in the, and the euro area In billions of D. Monthly figures Sources: EcoWin/ECB, EUR-OP/EUROSTAT, Ministry of Finance, Dept. of Commerce and NB Executive Board June
4 . Global trade indicator Sum of exports and imports for the, and Germany, in D. Monthly figures. Annual change. Per cent Sources: EcoWin/ Dept. of Commerce, Jap. Ministry of Finance and Deutsche Bundesbank Executive Board June.7 Industrial output in the, and the euro area Percentage change on months earlier. -month moving average. Seasonally adjusted. Volume Sources: EcoWin/Fed Reserve, Jap. Ministry of Economy, Trade and Ind. and EUR-OP/EUROSTAT Executive Board June
5 . New orders in manufacturing (excl. defence), Germany and Sweden. January 99 =. Seasonally adjusted Sweden 9 Germany Sources: EcoWin/Deutsche Bundesbank, Statistics Sweden and Census Bureau Executive Board June.9 Activity in industrial enterprises. The, the euro area and Sweden Purchasing managers index. Monthly figures 7 7 Sweden Germany, ISM index 999 Sources: EcoWin/ISM, Swedbank/I&L and NTC Research Executive Board June
6 7. Activity in business and industry excluding manufacturing in the ISM index. Monthly figures Sources: EcoWin/ISM Executive Board June. Fixed investment in business and industry Seasonally adjusted volume figures. Index. st quarter = Sweden 9 UK Sources: EcoWin/ESRI, Statistics Sweden, Dept. of Commerce and Office for Nat. Statistics Executive Board June
7 . Unemployment and employment Seasonally adjusted a. Unemployment as a share of the labour force Germany UK b. Employment in millions (left-hand scale) 9 Germany (righthand scale) Sources: EcoWin/ Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Conference Board, Federal Labor Office, EUROSTAT, ONS, FSO and Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications 7 Executive Board June. Nominal growth in hourly wage (non-farm), UK (whole economy) and Germany (manufacturing only). Percentage rise on same month previous year UK Germany Sources: EcoWin/Bureau of Labor Statistics, Deutsche Bundesbank and Office for National Statistics Executive Board June
8 . Consumer confidence indicators in the, Germany, France and Italy. Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. Monthly figures 7 (left-hand scale) Germany (righthand scale) - Italy (right-hand scale) France (right-hand scale) Sources: EcoWin/EU Commission and the Conference Board - Executive Board June. Retail trade in the ), the euro area, Germany and the UK Percentage change on same month previous year. -month moving average. Seasonally adjusted. Volume UK - Germany - ) Retail trade in the is a deflated value index Sources: EcoWin/ Dept. of Commerce, Deutsche Bundesbank, Office for Nat. Statistics and ECB Executive Board June
9 . GDP forecasts for and the forecast spread Percentage change on previous year. Spread in CF forecasts shaded ) Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sources: Consensus Forecasts and Norges Bank Executive Board June Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr ) *standard deviation.7 GDP forecasts for and the forecast spread Percentage change on previous year. Spread in CF forecasts shaded ) Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Jan Mar May Jan Mar May - Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Jan Mar May Sources: Consensus Forecasts and Norges Bank - - Jan Mar May - ) *standard deviation Executive Board June
10 . ECB forecasts New forecasts in Monthly Bulletin June Outlook less favourable than expected. Marked downward revision of growth forecasts and some downward revision of inflation forecast for - GDP growth ) : :.7 (.) :. (.) - Price inflation ) : :. (.). (.) Stresses again the importance of reforms Limited growth impulses from monetary policy, little scope for manoeuvre in fiscal policy - must carry out structural reforms. ) Previous forecast in brackets. Figures are midpoints in ECB forecast ranges Executive Board June.9 Projections for GDP growth abroad. Percentage change on previous year. Change since last Inflation Report in brackets (- ½) ¼ (- ¼) ½ (½) ¾ (¼) ¾ () ¼ (¼) Germany (- ½) ¼ (- ¼) ¼ () France (- ½) ½ (- ¾ ) ½ () UK ¾ (- ½) ½ () ½ () Sweden ½ (- ¼) ½ () ½ () Trading partners ) ¼ (- ¼) ¼ () ¾ (¼) ) ¾ (- ½) ½ (- ½) ½ () ) Export weightings trading partners compared with previously ) Purchasing parity-adjusted GDP weights from the IMF Executive Board June
11 . Key rates and expected change in selected countries Key rate Change since.. Change since Executive Board meeting.. Expected level in mths mths ). None ¾ Towards zero None ¾ ¾ UK.7 -. None ¼ ¼ Sweden ½ ¾ Denmark ¾ Switzerland None n.a. n.a. Iceland. -. None n.a. n.a. Canada. Australia.7 New Zealand. Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank Executive Board June. -. None ¼ ¾ None ¼ ¼ -. ½ ¾ ) Not adjusted for any maturity premium. Uncertainty factors Following the Iraq war, uncertainty is reduced. This has resulted in - Some decline in the oil price - Higher equity prices, less expensive corporate funding - But long yields remain low There are still important uncertainty factors - The saving ratio - will it rise sharply? - Will capital stocks be adjusted more than we anticipate? - Further, marked fall in the D? - SARS (appears to be abating, but had a strong impact in Q?) Executive Board June
12 The price picture Executive Board June. Oil and international commodity prices Trading partners currencies. 997=. Weekly figures Brent Blend Commodities Sources: EcoWin/The Economist and Norges Bank Executive Board June
13 . Producer prices trading partners. Percentage change on same month previous year Percentage change on previous month -. Jan May Sep Jan May Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank Executive Board June. Import prices in Germany, Sweden and the UK Percentage change on same month previous year Germany Sweden - - UK Sources: EcoWin/Statistics Sweden, EUR-OP/EUROSTAT and Office for National Statistics Executive Board June
14 . Consumer prices in the, the euro area and the UK Percentage change on same month previous year UK Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, EUR-OP/EUROSTAT and Office for National Statistics Executive Board June. CPI forecasts for and the forecast spread Percentage change on previous year. Spread in CF forecasts shaded ) Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May. Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sources: Consensus Forecasts and Norges Bank - - Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr ) *standard deviation Executive Board June
15 .7 CPI forecasts for and the forecast spread Percentage change on previous year. Spread in CF forecasts shaded ) Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Jan Mar May Jan Mar May. Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Jan Mar May Sources: Consensus Forecasts and Norges Bank Executive Board June Jan Mar May - - ) *standard deviation. Forecast for consumer price inflation abroad. Percentage change on previous year. Change since last Inflation Report in brackets ¼ () ¾ (-½) ½ () -½ () -½ () -¼ () Germany (-¼) ¾ (-¾) ¾ () France ¾ () ½ () () UK (½) ½ () ½ () Sweden ¼ (-¼) ¼ (-¾) () Trading partners ) () ½ (-¼) () ) ¾ () ½ (-¼) () ) Import weights trading partners compared with previously ) Eurostat weights (country's share of euro area consumption) Executive Board June
16 Oil and gas Executive Board June.9 OPEC's reference price with price band D per barrel. Daily figures Sep 99 Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sources: EcoWin/OPEC and Reuters Executive Board June
17 . Oil production in Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria In million barrels per day. Monthly figures Nigeria Venezuela Iraq Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Sources: Energy Information Administration and International Energy Agency Executive Board June. Imports of crude oil to the In million barrels per day. -week moving average Venezuela back and high production in the Middle East 9 9 Imports delayed by difficult weather conditions Strike in Venezuela 7 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May 7 Source: Department of Energy Executive Board June
18 . commercial crude oil stocks In million barrels. Weekly figures 9 9 Including strategic reserves 999 Highest and lowest values in the last five years Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Department of Energy Executive Board June. OECD industry crude oil stocks In million barrels. Monthly figures Highest and lowest values in the last five years 7 7 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: International Energy Agency Executive Board June
19 . Oil price Brent Blend D per barrel. Daily figures Futures prices June Assumption IR / 999 Sources: Norges Bank, Reuters, Telerate and IPE Executive Board June 9. Probability for the oil price in December at June D per barrel. West Texas Intermediate 9 Probability per D 7 % 9 % Assumptions in IR / adjusted for the differential between WTI and Brent Blend 7 7 Sources: NYMEX and IPE Executive Board June
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