Africa s Exports. Shanta Devarajan* World Bank. *with the assistance of Yutaka Yoshino

Transcription

1 Africa s Exports Shanta Devarajan* World Bank *with the assistance of Yutaka Yoshino

2 I. The Problem

3 Africa s Share of World Trade is Falling

4 Exports and Incomes in Mauritius Mauritius Incomes and Exports Incomes Exports Year 500 Income per Capita Exports per Capita Incomes per capita are in 1996 PPP$ from PENN World Tables. Exports per capita are in 1995 US$ from World Bank Development Indicators

5 Other African countries are following Mauritius Figure Apparel exports to US from SSA, $Mn 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 Rest of SSA Mauritius SACU Madagascar Kenya 1, Source: UN Comtrade

6 Exports are important Non-oil export share of GDP (%) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% % 0% E. Asia and Pacific ECA Latin America & Caribbean MNA S. Asia SSA Source: IMF WEO database. Note: export shares are unweighted average.

7 but are growing slowly 30.0% Exports growth annual %, simple average 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Africa Average Africa top performers Asia top performers China 0.0% 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000~2005 Creating an export push

8 and are declining in importance for Africa s top performers 70% 60% Africa average Africa top performers Asia top performers China 50% Export as % of GDP 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000~2005

9 Africa s exports remain concentrated Concentration and Diversification of Export: Average Europe and Central Asia East Asia- Pacific South Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub Saharian Africa 0 Export Concentration Index (0-100) left axis Share of Top 5 Products in Total Exports (%) left axis No. of Exported Product Categories right axis Source: World Bank World Trade Indicators

10 II. What do we know about Not much solutions? Very little plant-level panel data (except for RPED and repeated ICAs) What we know about firms Large firms export more

11 Exporting and firm size Percentage of Firms Exporting to Africa and Outside of Africa GHANA KENYA NIGERIA SOUTH AFRICA TANZANIA Large Medium Small Large Medium Small Large Medium Small Large Medium Large Medium Small To Africa To Outside of Africa

12 Changes in the Size Distribution of Manufacturing Firms in Ghana

13 II. What do we know about Not much solutions? Very little plant-level panel data (except for RPED, repeated ICAs) What we know about firms Large firms export more Foreign-owned firms export more (but very few of them, compared to large number of domestic, informal firms) Positive correlation between export orientation and productivity (self-selection or learning?)

14 II. What do we know about solutions? Behind-the-border factors Trade facilitation

15 Factory floor costs compare well with India & China Direct cost per male shirt $0.80 $0.60 $0.65 $0.40 $0.20 $0.16 $0.18 $0.12 $0.16 $0.19 $0.17 $0.29 $0.00 Madagascar Kenya Ghana Mozambique Lesotho South Africa India EPZ China

16 The time to clear goods at port is several days in many countries in Africa Eritrea Ethiopia Mozambique Nigeria Uganda Zambia Kenya Morocco China India Days to clear imports, median Days to clear exports, median

17 II. What do we know about solutions? Behind-the-border factors Trade facilitation Domestic supply constraints

18 Africa lags in access to infrastructure Access to electricity by region Access to electricity (% of population) % 40.8% 86.6% 87.3% 90.4% 0 Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Latin America & Caribbean East Asia & Pacific Middle East & North Africa Data sources: The World Bank WDI database, April Building the private sector

19 Africa lags other regions in the cost of doing business Ease of doing business rank, Simple average by region Average Ranking of Doing Business, the lower the better * 2006** Sub Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific East Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Data sources: World Bank Doing Business Database as of November *Normalized ranking from Doing Business ** Ranking from Doing Business 2007.

20 Alleviating domestic constraints could increase exports in African, particularly for manufactured products Predicted Increase in Bilateral Exports (%) of Africa Export Customs Procedures Internet Access 15.3 Power Infrastructure All Mechandise Exports Manufactured Exports 10% improvement in Exporter Country in Africa Source: Africa s Silk Road (2007)

21 II. What do we know about solutions? Behind-the-border factors Trade facilitation Domestic supply constraints Geography and institutions Affect number of exporters rather than how much each exporter sells in foreign markets (Elbadawi, Mengistae and Zeufack, 2006)