Wildfire Management Branch FIRE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT BACKGROUNDER FOR TYPE 4 SS

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1 FIRE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT BACKGROUNDER FOR TYPE 4 SS Background This document is meant to provide more detail about Landscape Fire Planning and Management in addition to the fire hazard and risk products that WMB has available and is planning to complete. Its purpose is to outline the most up to date information regarding Wildfire Management products that are to be used as a filter to provide guidance on choosing areas to treat with LBIS funding through the Type 4 process. The attached Discussion paper provides more information about the integration of Landscape Fire Planning and Management into Type 4 Silviculture Strategies. Discussion Paper Landscape Fire Planning Landscape Fire Planning and Management Process Pilots in Merritt TSA, Soo TSA, and DVA/DJA portion of the PG TSA two year process a) Assessment of the wildfire hazard, and risk to values on the landscape (TSA/Districts) Apply an already completed fire risk analysis (Burn P3 modelling) for the defined area; o Validate the analysis through ground truthing; Collection and identification of values at risk and relative initial ranking using suppression priority themes and land manager resource priorities into a WMB GIS data base of values at risk; Identify where fire has ecological benefit on the landscape and where the highest values are at the highest risk; Determine logical management units (e.g. landscape units) and develop fire management objectives for each unit related to the prioritized values at risk; o Reduce risk from extreme (rank 5, 6) and to moderate (rank 3,4 ) or less o Reduction of size in some landscapes may be a consideration o Objectives need to consider mitigation activities and other costs and benefits o It is expected that full suppression areas will be more obvious and straightforward. Areas where there is some form of modified response will be more complex 1

2 b) District/TSA based collaborative planning Significant consultation with communities, First Nations, and stakeholders will be required to identify landscape fire management actions; o Reaffirm the initial WMB GIS data base of values at risk. This could include identification of economic value of features on crown land o Identify and prioritize management activities to reduce risk and threat to highest values at highest risk A landscape planning committee of district stewardship staff, forest industry, First Nations, local communities, local WMB Staff and the regional fire management specialist will been formed for the planning area. c) Building the plan_coordination of resources for fire management treatment activities Include all information in a Fire Management Plan for the fire zone. Details to include objectives, identified and prioritized values, modified response areas, prescribed burning areas, a Communications plan a fuel management plan, and other details as required/proposed; Incorporate proposed and completed treatments (CWPP) from fire zone and district programs (FFT,ER,BCTS); Propose fuel management treatment priorities at the interface level and the landscape level for each unit; Develop a multiyear operational plan for co-ordinated treatments; Targeted Harvesting in areas identified as high hazard and risk to values to create fuel breaks Alternative silviculture regimes to protect values -Stocking Standards to encourage deciduous or other fire resistant species Fuel treatments for protection of Community and Infrastructure values Ecosystem Restoration Projects and Prescribed Burns for fuel reduction, forest health, habitat Implement management options and assess results, modify as required. Provincial Landscape Wildfire Risk and Threat Modelling The goals are to complete burn probability modeling all management units in BC within the next two years. Five Districts were modeled last year. Results of the modelling are to be used to prioritize areas at risk, set objectives for wildfire risk reduction on the landscape, and support subsequent operational management planning over the next few years. The model used in this process is called Burn P3. Burn-P3 is a simulation model used to evaluate wildfire susceptibility over large fire-prone landscapes. A landscape-level Monte Carlo approach 2

3 combines deterministic fire growth modelling with probabilistic model inputs. The software models fire growth, using fire ignitions, spread events, and fire weather conditions from historical fire and weather data inputted by the user. The resulting approach, called BURN-P3 (probability, prediction, and planning), that allows users to map wildfire susceptibility, expressed as burn probability (BP), for a given year. Parisien et al. (2005) describe the Burn-P3 model in detail. Every fire in a Burn-P3 simulation is modelled deterministically, i.e.) one set of inputs always produce the same output. Prometheus, the Canadian fire growth model, models fire spread and the final perimeter of each fire based on the fuel type-specific spread rates. In contrast, Burn-P3 components are modelled probabilistically, i.e.) inputs are drawn from a probability distribution according to user-specified fire regime parameters. Burn-P3 components include the number of fires per iteration, location of ignitions, weather conditions under which the fires burn, and the number of days on which each fire achieves significant spread. Monte Carlo simulations are modeled iteratively (one at a time) over a single annual time step (fire season). Every iteration area burned is recorded in a grid and this process is repeated for a large number of iterations. The burn area grid, from every iteration run, is then compiled into a cumulative grid of burn frequency. The following equation is used to calculate BP for each grid cell on the landscape, where BP is expressed as a percentage representing the likelihood of burning in a single fire season: BP = (Number of Times Burned) / (Number of Iterations) * 100%. The latest version (Nov 2012), will also produce, for each iteration run, fire intensity (heat output of the flaming front, expressed in kw/m) is recorded as well. A corresponding map can be created to show the intensity of fires on the landscape. A high probability of a high intensity fire on the landscape may be used to prioritize values at risk on the landscape for mitigation/ treatment work. Figure1 shows these analyses completed for the Quesnel District. The burn probability maps will be classified into a provincial hierarchy. Figure 1: Map of Burn Probability (left) and DRAFT Fire Intensity (right) for Quesnel District. 3

4 Strategic Wildfire Preventive Initiative Since 2004, the Strategic Wildfire Prevention Initiative, a collaborative initiative between the Union of BC Municipalities, the First Nations Emergency Services Society, and, the Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations. To date, the SWPI has resulted in the development of a total of 302 Community Wildfire Protection Plans, with 189 community wildfire protection plans in collaboration with local governments and 113 with First Nation communities. As result of the plans, over 46,467 hectares of high risk community interface has been treated, with 25,244 ha in Mountain Pine Beetle areas and 19,219 ha in non-mpb areas. This work is done in an area 2 km or less surrounding communities. The benefit of fuel reduction were clearly demonstrated in 2009 and 2010 wildfire seasons when 3 communities West Kelowna, Alexis Creek and Barnhartvale were spared major wildfire damages as a result of successful fuel reduction projects. The Provincial Strategic Threat Analysis (PSTA) is a collection of datasets that are used together to identify interface areas that may be at risk of wildfire. These datasets are meant to be used at a strategic level and at a coarse resolution suitable to the area of the province of BC. These datasets can be used together to prioritize community wildfire protection planning, and to guide mitigation of wildfire in areas identified to be at risk. The current version of the PSTA was built in 2004 and is currently being updated to include recent weather data and the refreshed fuel type dataset. The expected date that this updated information will be available for integration into Type 4 SS is November 30 th, The PSTA uses current weather, fire behaviour fuel type data, structure density data and fire history data to provide a current and strategic wildfire risk assessment delivered in a package of GIS datasets. Head Fire Intensity: (using 90th percentile weather during fire season, defined as April through October) within each weather zone), classified as follows; 0 2,000 kw/m, 2,001 4,000 kw/m, 4,001 10,000 kw/m, +10,000 kw/m; Escape Fire Frequency: (frequency of fires 4 hectares or larger) Use water features as a mask to avoid these areas being classified. Classified as follows: Low/Moderate /High/ Extreme; Response Time Layer: built on calculating response time based on distances to existing WMB; infrastructure (air and ground transportation) Escape Fire Risk: Combines Escape Fire Frequency, Response Time, and Frequency of Fire Ignition; Interface density: Less than 1 building / km2, 1 10 buildings / km2, buildings / km2, 100 1,000 buildings / km2, More than 1,000 buildings / km2; Spotting Potential: (likelihood of a polygon to spot) / Polygons that have the potential to spot fire up to and including 2 km away classified by Fuel Type and Potential Spotting Distance 4

5 Figure 2: Map of Burn Probability (left) and Fuel Type (right) example from the 2004 PSTA. Summary of Contacts, Information and data available to support Type 4 SS Landscape Fire Management Program Lead Kelly.Osbourne@gov.bc.ca Superintendent Fuel Management Brian.McIntosh@gov.bc.ca Table 1: Summary of contacts and data available TSA Local Wildfire Specialists / Fuels Specialists Prince George Dana Hicks / Harry Offizier Status of contact and Information available with links to that information, e.g. Fire risk maps or reports only provide those endorsed by FLNRO Status of BurnP3 output for the unit Have had no contact with any Type 4 SS. December 31, 2012 Quesnel / Bev Atkins Have not been invited to any meetings. Have had some contact when the Forest Estate Model was being worked on but have not been included as this has morphed into the Type IV. November 15 th, 2012 Lakes Dana Hicks / Tony Falco Initial Meeting completed, share Burn P3, FBP fuel type maps and PSTA information with the group. Supporting discussion around values at risk on the landscape. November 15 th 5

6 Morice Dana Hicks / Tony Falco Wildfire Management Branch Initial Meeting completed, share Burn P3, FBP fuel type maps and PSTA information with the group. Supporting discussion around values at risk on the landscape. November 15 th, Mile House / Bev Atkins Attended inaugural meeting. Consultant presented a fire hazard map that had been competed under the FFT program. It was a previous model and not Burn P3. Have some concerns that the consultant will engage with WMB with regard to the Burn P3 model instead of their model. They had indicated that their model is proprietary, but I now understand this was an early model develop by WMB staff and others. December 31, 2012 Cariboo Chilcotin / Bev Atkins Was invited and was unable to attend. Trying to engage Fuel Management Specialist as support. Unfortunately, she was ill that day. November 15 th, 2012 Okanagan Shuswap / Gord Pratt Attended inaugural meeting. Consultant was very receptive to looking at how the Burn P3 might integrate with the model that they are using. Additional meeting was set up to present the BURN P3. Contractor is requesting a technical contact once they have looked at their data. December 31,

7 Figure 3: Draft Provincial Composite of Burn P3 with relative classification schemes. Burn P3 Technical Contacts: or Note: There are different consultants using different models for Type 4 Silviculture Strategies so will have to be aware of this as we integrate Burn P3. It s important that we compare apples to apples between areas. Status of contact and Information available Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPP) Contact the Local Fuels Management Specialist_WMB generated lists for CWPPS on Fuels SharePoint: Items.aspx?RootFolder=%2Fhpr%5Ftask%5Fteams%2Ffuel%5Fmanagement%2FArticles %20and%20Papers%2FFuel%5FManagement%2FSWPI%20LG%20and%20FN%20Reports %202012%20and%20Rx%20Fire%20Stats%20archive 7