Gross Domestic Product

Transcription

1 Statistical Release Gross Domestic Product Second Quarter 01

2 1.0 Economic performance During the second quarter of 01, Kenya's economy is estimated to have exped by. per cent which was slightly slower than the growth of. per cent experienced during the same quarter of 01 (see Figure 1 Tables 1 for details). The growth was mainly supported by strong expansions of activities of Electricity Water, Financial intermediation, Agriculture Forestry Manufacturing. On the other h, Hotels Restaurants recorded a significant contraction while Wholesale Retail trade's growth slowed albeit marginally. Compared to the first quarter of 01, the economy exped by 0.7 per cent during the second quarter as measured by seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product. The second quarter of 01 was characterized by low inflation rate, which averaged at.7 per cent compared to an average of per cent that prevailed during the second quarter of 01. The ease in the inflationary pressure was mainly on account of lower food fuel prices as well as a stronger shilling. The Kenya shilling strengthened against all its major trading currencies except the euro during the review period compared to the same period of 01. The most notable gains being against the Japanese Yen the South African R. A 100 Japanese Yen exchanged at an average of KSh during the review quarter compared to KSh in the second quarter of 01. International oil prices declined during the quarter under review compared to the first quarter of 01 but nevertheless remained relatively higher than the levels reached during the second quarter of 01. Interest rates dropped significantly during the second quarter of 01 compared to the same quarter of 01. Inter-bank rates recorded the most drastic drop from 16.8 during the second quarter of 01 to 7.1 in the quarter under review. Average Yield Rates 91 - day Treasury Bills averaged at 8.68 during the review quarter down from 1. recorded in the second quarter of 01. Activities of the capital markets were more vibrant during the quarter under review compared to the same quarter of 01. The NSE registered an upsurge of 7. per cent in the number of shares traded to 11,17 transactions from 77,5 transactions recorded in the second quarter of 01. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Second Quarter 01 GDP Release

3 Figure 1: nd Quarter growth rates.0 Sectoral analysis.1 Agriculture Forestry During the quarter under review, the sector is estimated to have exped by 5.0 per cent compared to a growth of.0 per cent during a similar quarter in 01. Most of the agricultural crops recorded improved production. Tea horticulture remained the major contributors to the sector s growth with tea having recorded a growth of 1.1 per cent during the quarter compared to 8.1 per cent growth during the same quarter in 01. Outputs of coffee sugar cane had little influence on the growth of the sector with respective growths of 1.6 per cent 1.1 per cent during the quarter. The growth in horticulture was mirrored in exports of vegetables fruits that recorded respective growths of 1. per cent.9 per cent during the quarter compared to a decline of 1.5 per cent 16.0 per cent respective growths in the same quarter of 01. Cutflowers experienced a decline of. per cent in production during the quarter under review.. Manufacturing The sector recorded an overall growth of. per cent in the quarter under review compared to.1 per cent over a similar period in 01. The growth was mainly driven by manufacture of non-food products which recorded significant growth of 7. per cent. Production of motor Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Second Quarter 01 GDP Release

4 vehicle tyres, toilet soap cement exped by 0. per cent, 6.7 per cent 1.6 per cent, respectively. Processing of soft drinks, wheat flour milk increased by 8. per cent, 6.0 per cent.9 per cent, respectively. However, processing of sugar, coffee beer declined by.1 per cent, 5. per cent 9. per cent compared to the same quarter in 01.. Electricity Water During the review period, electricity water supply is estimated to have exped by 1.0 per cent compared to 7.9 per cent in the second quarter of 01. The increase was attributed to improved production of hydro geothermal power which are cheaper to produce compared to thermal. Hydro electricity geothermal generation grew by 17. per cent.7 per cent, respectively. However, generation of power through thermal declined by 16. per cent. Total electricity generation increased by 9.5 per cent during the second quarter of 01. Electricity consumption exped by 8. per cent in the second quarter of 01 compared to a contraction of.1 per cent in the same quarter in 01.. Construction The sector recorded a significant growth of 6.7 per cent during the quarter under review compared to 1.1 per cent growth over the second quarter of 01.The growth was reflected in improved production consumption of cement that grew by 1.6 per cent 7.1 per cent respectively during the quarter..5 Hotels Restaurants The sector's economic slowdown experienced in the first quarter of 01 spilled over into the second quarter mainly through low booking by international visitors. Consequently, the sector's growth is estimated to have contracted by 11. per cent compared to a growth of.9 per cent realized in the same quarter of 01. The low bookings were mainly linked to uncertainties over the country's general elections held in March this year..6 Transport Communication Transport communication sector's real value added grew by 5.5 per cent in the second quarter of 01 compared to a growth of.7 per cent in the same quarter of 01. This growth was realized in all the subsectors with Transport Storage growing by 6.0 per cent Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Second Quarter 01 GDP Release

5 compared to a growth of.1 per cent in the second quarter of 01, while Communication grew by.7 per cent compared to a growth of 6.1 per cent. The improved performance of the Transport Storage subsector was largely attributed to the increased l transportation of goods port activities, introduction of more routes by the National Carrier among others. Communication performance was attributed to the adoption of more innovative approaches by the service providers as they enhance their competitiveness in the market..7 Financial Intermediation The net foreign assets of the banking system exped by1.0 per cent in the second quarter to KSh 61. billion in June 01. On annual basis the growth was 18.1 per cent compared to 17.7 per cent increase recorded over a similar period in 01. Over the same quarter the overall domestic credit increased by 1.8 per cent to KSh 1,78.9 billion. The increase in domestic credit, led to a growth in extended broad money supply of.7 per cent to KSh 1,80.6 billion. On annual basis the increase was 1.1 per cent compared to 15.5 per cent in a similar period in 01. The Kenya Shilling recorded mixed performance remaining stable against the US Dollar, at KSh 85.5 weakening against the Euro, but strengthening against the Japanese Yen, South African R East African currencies. Figure : Trends in principal interest rates Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Second Quarter 01 GDP Release 5

6 Over the quarter in review the average interest rate on 91-day treasury bills eased from 9.88 per cent in March 01, to 6.1 per cent in June 01. There was no similar easing for the maximum lending rates which dropped marginally from 17.7 per cent in March 01 to per cent in June 01. Marginal respective reductions were recorded for the overdraft rate interbank rates of per cent 7. per cent. Activity in the Nairobi Stock Exchange continued to increase in the second quarter of 01 as evidenced by an average 0 share index of,790 points compared to an average of,599 points in the first quarter. Figure : NSE 0 share Index Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Second Quarter 01 GDP Release 6

7 .0 Balance of Payments The country s overall balance of payments position deteriorated from a surplus of KSh 50,05 million during the second quarter of 01 to a surplus of KSh 7,86 million recorded in a similar quarter of 01 as shown in Table. The current account deficit worsened by 50.6 per cent to KSh 95,50 million in the quarter under review, from KSh 6,0 million recorded in a similar period of 01. Net capital financial account inflows amounted to KSh 7,767 million in the second quarter of 01. Gross official reserves increased by 17.7 per cent from KSh, 969 million in the second quarter of 01 to KSh 5,700 million in the same quarter of 01. Services account surplus decreased by 5. per cent from KSh 107, million during the second quarter of 01 to KSh 50,160 million in the same period of 01. Current transfers inflows increased to KSh 60,9 million in the second quarter of 01 compared to KSh 5,960 million recorded in a similar period in 01. Personal transfers registered an increase of 7.0 per cent to st at KSh 6,67 million during the second quarter of 01 compared to KSh,909 million recorded in a similar quarter of 01. Merchise trade balance registered a deficit of KSh 0,59 million during the second quarter of 01 compared to a deficit of KSh 19,911 million recorded in the corresponding period of 01 as shown in Table. The value of exports increased marginally from KSh 1,658 million in the second quarter of 01 to KSh 1,8 million during the second quarter of 01. The import bill decreased to KSh 9,6 million during the quarter under review from KSh,570 million in the similar quarter of 01, mainly occasioned by a decline in imports of industrial transport equipment. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Second Quarter 01 GDP Release 7

8 Table 1 Gross domestic product by activity Constant 001 prices KSh million Year Fishing Mining quarrying Electricty water Quarter Agriculture forestry Manufacturing Construction Wholesale retail trade Hotels restaurants Transport communication Financial intermediation , 6,181 6,7 10,67 9,769 0,05 11,75 0,81 156,85 50,06 07,5 5,6 6,5 15,91 1,1,75 18,0 1,98 161,615 51,659 99,1 5,565 6,16 17,060 0,97 9,70 1,60 18,99 171,99 55,75 18,586 5,71 6,76 1,6,9 51,9 15,9 19,796 18,181 60,79,15 5,891 7, 18,198,0 5,78 166,186 0,77 190,65 65,095 5,785 6,09 7,55 15,75 5,776 56,1 176,87 1, 198, 69,9 69,67 1,669 1,87 0,06 6,75 9,0 7,9 5,07,99 11,55 67,5 1,110 1,7 0,7 6,76 8,99 8,661,8,69 11,780 85,98 1,515 1,1 1,07 6,805 9,76,711,80 5,51 11,785 89,77 1,956 1,99 1,66 6,967 9,869 9,71,50,50 1,051 75,89 1,60 1,9 1,76 7,118 8,671 9,95 5,510 6,9 1,17 68,909 1,15 1,568,60 7,559 9,96,0,71 8,86 1,577 85,878 1,55 1,61,060 7,55 11,181 5,7 5,75 0,969 1,65 89,7 1,87 1,699,7 7,567 10,606,06 5,116 0,098 1,758 7,097 1,1 1,66 1,96 7,76 9,15,9,78 6,98 1,699 69, ,68,00 7,880 11,8,6,685 9,015 1,0 81,9 1,6 1,75,81 7,765 1,56 7,78,06,869 1,705 8,591 1,617 1,551,51 7,959 10,805,51,80,78 1,1 70,990 1,05 1,91,6 7,91 11,59,81 7,19 5,10 1,10 66,76 1,1 1,605,695 8,07 1,59,65,986 0,55 1,7 78,761 1,7 1,65,80 7,9 1,585 9,08,091 51,0 1,98 8,0 1,66 1,6 5,5 6,95 1,7 8,97,71,70 1,50 75,188 1,60 1,555 5,677 7,68 11,96 6, 7,16 8,87 1,165 68,05 1,01 1,687 5,6 8,8 1,17 6,586,977,78 1,77 85,6 1,00 1,75 6,7 8,680 1,96,850,501 5,977 15,0 89,51 1,65 1,776 5,775 8,6 1,57 8,065,191 7,58 16,07 75,89 1,77 1,665 7,180 8,05 1, 8,875 7,51 51,86 15,975 71,19 1, 1,868 6,9 8,198 1,81 8,869,085,9 15,98 85,817 1,69 1,87 7,7 7,717 1,78 7,115,605 55,19 16,611 91,117 1,71 1,80 7,07 8,80 1,80 51,7,56 9,55 16,571 76,888 1,56 1,78 7,718 8,90 1,70 0,79 7,761 55,0 16,71 7,607 1,17 1,91 7,0 8,8 1,979 1,570,0 6,1 16,8 90,765 1,566 1,906 8,7 8,806 1,811 9,9,699 56,8 17,78 95,5 1,66 1,95 9,588 9,187 15,81 55,,659 0,5 18,18 8,089 1,78 1,88 9,85 9,88 1,86,5 6,56 57,7 16,8 76,6 1,77,01 8,80 9,90 1,9,81,7 8,700 18,659 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Second Quarter 01 GDP Release 8

9 Table 1 Gross Domestic Product by activity Year Quarter Real estate, renting, business services Educati on Other services FISIM All industries at basic prices Public administration All industries excl. agriculture Taxes on products GDP market prices 70,860 5,01 76,57 8,575-1,17 1,155,991 85, ,855 1,6,86 7,50 5,17 80,771 85,10-10,8 1,168,8 861,07 188,88 1,57,6 75,67 6,01 8,95 87,850-11,95 1,198,70 898,89 196,117 1,9,87 78,089 7,085 86,651 89,71-11,60 1,66,695 98,108 08,607 1,75,0 80,888 8,71 90,86 9,61-11,8 1,15,16 991,711,786 1,59,91 8,58 9,58 95,10 96,98-11,79 1,7,96 1,07,179 7,15 1,610,116 at GDP seasonally adjusted ,888 11,68 18,90 19,79 -,89 60, ,7 8,05 98,15 0,79 16,889 11,605 18, 19,915 -,961 56,75 189,01 8,65 95,111 09,9 16,7 11,55 18,70 0,088 -,956 8, ,97,91 7,868 17,6 17,95 11, 18,96 0,7 -,0 86,01 196,58,08 8,8 17,668 17,09 11,66 19,187 0,1 -,09 76,06 00,1,6 19,89 7,18 17,78 11,7 18,98 0,569 -,118 75,578 06,669,118 19,696,87 18,96 11,1 18,96 0,718 -,01 01,898 16,00 6,77 8,67 5,79 17,689 10,996 19,1 0,867 -,90 0,89 1,77 6,700 9,189 9,799 17,9 11,161 0,1 1,09 -,685 76,758 0,661 6,16,88 1,800 19,960 11,0 0,11 1,19 -,67 8,61 1,086, 6,70 0,90 19,6 11,85 0, 1,57 -,50 06,889 5,97 50,751 57,60,567 16,668 11,5 0,195 1,5 -,669 01,7 16,88 8,56 50,06 1,99 18,875 11,81 0,87 1,760 -,85 95,100,109 7,70,80 5,11,18 11,9 0,66 1,918 -,00 87,6 1,56 5,168,800 7,61 18,178 11,585 0,67,0 -,059 1,081 5,0 50, 6, 7,666 16,0 11,671 0,807,10 -,09 01,57 18,05 5,887 5, 6,17 19,60 11,61 1,80,1 -,788 0,019 6,81 5,717 7,76 58,,5 11,76 1,67, -,76 01,95,519 51,08 5,97 68,9 18,889 11,885 1,561,85 -,811 5,886 50, 5,91 90,817 7,779 17,08 11,99 1,61,701 -,898 6,865 7,51 56,911 8,776 7,66 0,666 11,776,580,971 -,9 1,896 9,608 9,685 6,581 76,859,95 1,05,68,7 -,919 1,060,867 51,6 65,96 81,65 19,75 1,176,78,68 -,06 6,60 60,6 59,99 06,51 87,61 17,571 1,67,879,695 -,966 9,711 8,59 6,67 0,8 9,179 1,50 1,119,66,907 -,851 7,80 50,59 5,08 79,518 9,07,577 1,80,719,066 -,89 5,501 5,89 56,5 81,75 99,09 0,509 1,508,81,17 -,97 61,85 71,089 6,0,886 05,688 18,06 1,577,95,5 -,057 58,19 6,60 65,80,959 11,68,108 1,51,591,51 -,77,588 60,99 55,85 99,07 1,0,6 1,77,591,717 -,1,0 65,976 56,06 98,75 16,99 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Second Quarter 01 GDP Release 9

10 Table Gross Domestic Product by activity Year Quarter Agriculture forestry Fishing Mining quarrying Electricty water Manufacturing Percentage changes at constant prices 001 Construction Wholesale retail trade Hotels restaurants Transport communication Financial intermediation Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Second Quarter 01 GDP Release 10

11 Table Gross domestic product by activity Percentage changes at constant prices 001 Year Quarter Real estate, renting, business services Public administration Education Other services FISIM All industries at basic prices All industries excl. agriculture Taxes on products GDP at market prices GDP, seasonally adjusted Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Second Quarter 01 GDP Release 11

12 Table :QUARTERLY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS In millions of KSh ITEM Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oc t-dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oc t-dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun 1. CURRENT ACCOUNT (76,0.18) (97,90.) (1,51.19) (117,917.78) (81,118.87) (6,0.1) (105,1.98) (11,95.1) (1,76.7) (95,50.8) 1.1. GOODS (167,687.81) (18,118.55) (5,58.8) (7,59.75) (197,56.5) (19,911.1) (18,76.61) (,809.1) (,05.01) (0,59.) Exports (fob) 118,11.1 1, , , , , ,61.9 1, ,97.1 1,8.1 Re-exports 6,.60 6,61.1 8, , , ,5.8 8, , ,06. 10,6.90 Domestic exports 111, , ,1.8 15, , , , , , ,70. Imports (cif) 85, ,1.6 6,7.5 58, ,1.88, , , , ,6.6 Government,71.6,65.75,65.75,65.75,65.75,78.75,70.9, ,889.59, Commercial 8, , , , , ,78.88, ,0.11 5, , SERVICES 0, ,57.55, , , ,.6 6, ,996.0, , Credit 78,17. 85, , , ,078. 1, , , , ,19.6 Debit (7,901.) (5,56.9) (77,989.00) (0,961.50) (6,11.6) (17,8.88) (5,77.18) (7,789.) (5,557.96) (5,59.8) of which Travel account 1, , , , ,1.05 1, , ,.08 1, , Credit 18, , ,81.67, , , ,9.99 1,6.5 19, ,0.5 Debit (,1.6) (,007.00) (5,69.61) (,7.5) (,916.5) (,.1) (,01.) (,0.6) (6,106.0) (6.16) 1.. Income account 6,75.0 (7.08) (,170.75) 1,6.99 (1,91.08) (,58.1) (,6.5) (,70.0) (,90.5) (1,09.89) Credit 8,8.7 1,86.7,55.5 7,16.70,615.87,188.0,79.8,850.17,0.5 5, Debit (,68.5) (,10.80) (6,696.8) (5,51.70) (,556.9) (5,771.15) (6,6.5) (5,55.56) (6,70.87) (7,086.76) 1.. Current Transfers account, ,8.7 50, , ,7.98 5, ,7.5, , ,9.95 Diaspora remittances 16, ,09.0,06.1,0.09 5,51.98,908.69,519. 5,7.1 6,77.1 6,67.6. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 57, , , , , , , , , , Capital Account (capital transfers),89.8,009.0,760.00,7.9,98.,6.05 6,779.00,79.8,10.7 5, Financial Account net 5, ,1.5 10,5.61 6, ,77.7 5, , , , , Investments net 6,1.56 8, , , , ,9. 96, , ,69.1 8, Change in official Reserves (11,0.01) (85.8) 1,51.78 (,506.19) (7,017.57) (50,05.6) (16,67.01) (,711.97) 1,7.75 (7,86.8). NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS 18, , , ,97. 15,5.98 6, , ,150., ,79.8 Memorum items Gross Reserves 5, , , , , , , , , ,57.5 Official,0.7 71, , , ,8.10, , ,960. 7, , Commercial Banks 109, ,0.9 16, , , , ,5. 15,8.7 16, , End period exchange rate against US $ Average exchange rate against US $

13 Table : Balance of Merchise Trade Year Period Domestic Exports Re-Exports Total Exports Imports Balance of Trade KSh Million Volume of Trade 007 Q1 6,586.99, , ,08.60 (8,0.88) 19,656. Q 65,7.87, ,5. 15,89.17 (76,96.9) 1,61. Q 65,86.7, , ,10.96 (85,7.01),9.91 Q 65,5.6, ,8. 15,5. (85,711.01), Q1 78,1.0,87.1 8, , (9,15.9) 58,786.9 Q 77,1.19 5, , ,79.58 (8,080.98) 7,78.18 Q 8, , , , (19,.59) 06, Q 8,6.5 6, , , (10,807.) 0, Q1 8,1.0 5, , ,07.11 (100,51.1) 75,5.08 Q 76,60.11, , ,09.61 (107,116.8) 67,70.8 Q 80,87.9 7, , , (10,16.1) 81, Q 8,78.96, ,9.9 19,78. (11,88.8) 08, Q1 9,65.1 6, , ,61.5 (107,767.) 05, Q 91, , ,550. 1,6.1 (1,081.88) 9,18.7 Q 95, , ,551.7,.6 (10,671.7),76.1 Q 105,69.8 6, , ,065.8 (155,07.79) 79, Q1 111, , , ,87.9 (167,78.1) 0,966.6 Q 117,7.88 6,61.1 1, ,1.6 (18,118.55),10.7 Q 18,1.8 8, ,19.5 6,7.5 (5,58.8) 99, Q 15, , , , (7,59.75) 90, Q1 1,65.6 7, , ,1.88 (197,56.5) 59,11.1 Q 11,15.8 9,5.8 1,658.,569.6 (19,911.1) 67,7.95 Q 10, , ,61.9 6, (18,76.61) 75, Q 11, , , , (,809.1) 9, Q1 11, ,06. 11, ,998.1 (,05.01) 87,971.6 Q 11,70. 10,6.90 1,8.1 9,6.6 (0,59.) 5,59.59