RESEARCH REPORT. Executive Summary: Autonomous Vehicles

Transcription

1 RESEARCH REPORT Executive Summary: Autonomous Vehicles Self-Driving Vehicles, Autonomous Parking, and Other Advanced Driver Assistance Systems: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Navigant Research at research-sales@navigant.com. Published 3Q 2013 David Alexander Senior Research Analyst John Gartner Research Director

2 Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 What Is Autonomous Driving? Self-driving road vehicles have been imagined for many years, but early concepts relied on a massively expensive road infrastructure to supply the guidance data that is now available via the relatively recent introduction of satellite navigation systems. With the advent of more accurate global positioning system (GPS) navigation, as well as onboard sensors and the associated advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), cars now have the potential to drive themselves. Yet, several hurdles remain before fully autonomous vehicles can be made available to the public. One of the main barriers to automated driving is the legal requirement in many countries that all vehicles must have a driver in control at all times. Some U.S. states and European countries have begun to issue licenses to companies to conduct testing on public highways under controlled conditions as the technology is being developed. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are always very careful to thoroughly test all systems before launch. Still, assuming responsibility for not just supplying the vehicle, but also driving it is a liability that will entail a great deal of confidence in the technology. From a practical perspective, fully autonomous driving is not going to come to market suddenly. Instead, there will be a gradual introduction of progressively more capable systems that can assume control of certain aspects of driving. The first features will most likely be self-parking, traffic jam assistance, and freeway cruising. Integration with intelligent transportation systems (ITS) will also offer opportunities to explore new functionality. The role of the driver of a vehicle will evolve to be more like that of the pilot of an aircraft. Drivers will be responsible for setting the parameters for a trip and managing the details at the start and end of a journey, but will rely on automated systems to handle the straightforward aspects of driving. Remaining alert and dealing with the unexpected will be a driver requirement for many years. Once autonomous driving systems are in place, there is the potential for greatly reduced accident rates. For example, driver mistakes were found to be the cause of over 80% of all accidents involving personal injuries in Germany in 2010, according to the German Federal Statistical Office. With sensors monitoring the driver as well as the surrounding roads and traffic, self-driving modes could be set to kick in automatically under some conditions. Such modes could also be activated by the driver under specific circumstances like traffic jams and freeway travel. 1

3 1.2 Market Drivers Traffic congestion on major roads and in large cities continues to be a major problem. Developing new solutions for moving people and goods into, out of, and around city streets is essential if cities are to be able to continue to grow as projected. ITS for traffic management are being implemented with some success, and renewed interest in vehicle-to-x technology will provide additional support for automated driving features by enabling communications between vehicles as well as to the local wireless infrastructure. Smart city technologies such as coordinated traffic signals and smart parking are setting the stage for the arrival of autonomous vehicles in the future. Easing congestion is a major contributor to saving fuel because having a more efficient vehicle is of only marginal benefit if long periods are spent in heavy traffic moving slowly. Similarly, finding a parking space quickly without driving up and down city streets will reduce congestion and emissions, as well as saving time for the vehicle occupants. Once fully autonomous vehicles are available, the infrastructure can guide them via the most efficient routes and parking space locations can be optimized. Automated driving has the potential to make roads safer and reduce the large portion of accidents that are caused by driver error. Insurance companies will benefit from fewer collisions and less damage, so they may offer financial incentives to encourage the implementation of automated driving systems. However, these companies will want to be sure that the benefits are real and quantifiable. Regardless, the fundamental market driver for the introduction of new technology is competition among the OEMs for enhanced brand image. Now that ADAS features are available on B-segment vehicles, the high-tech automobile brands such as Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus, and Mercedes will push to be the first to offer autonomous driving modes. Many have already showcased the features they are developing at recent automobile and consumer electronics shows. In the short term, the main driver for growth in the number of autonomous features installed will be the perceived value of the systems to the new vehicle purchaser. In the longer term, as the societal value improvements are recognized, there will likely be additional support from entities such as businesses that stand to benefit if employee commutes are easier and cities that want to improve traffic flow. Insurance companies and/or governments may also provide some incentives once the technology proves that it reduces collisions and injuries. 2

4 1.3 Technology Issues ADAS features are currently offered on a wide range of vehicles, and OEMs have accumulated many years of experience implementing increasingly sophisticated functionality. Numerous vehicles now feature multiple sensors radar, lidar, camera, and ultrasonic. Whereas early systems typically had one sensor per feature, the latest technology takes input from multiple sensors to improve the accuracy of the data analyzed. The replacement of hydraulic assistance by electric motors for faster response and lower energy consumption has also been a key factor in getting new vehicles ready for autonomous systems by providing electronic access to steering and braking as well as engine control. Onboard data communications networks for infotainment are another important piece of the evolution. ITS features such as vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2X) communications will add another level of data input to self-driving technology. These features will also improve the information available to drivers and contributing to the road traffic control system for cities. V2V in particular will be valuable in enabling the safe platooning of autonomous vehicles in convoys or road trains. With most of these technologies maturing into second- or third-generation versions, the market leaders are now comfortable introducing more sophisticated functionality that adds self-driving modes to the option list. One of the first into production is the traffic jam feature on the 2014 model of the Mercedes S-Class, which went into production in 3Q Operational only in slow-moving traffic, the system requires that the driver maintain contact with the steering wheel while the system takes care of speeding up, slowing down, and steering to remain in lane. Navigant Research expects this to be the first of a number of such production announcements in

5 1.4 Forecast Highlights Detailed forecasts of specific autonomous driving mode features are given in the Market Forecasts section of this report. The first fully autonomous functions are expected to go into production in 2020, though the projected numbers are too small to register on Chart 1.1. This chart illustrates the global forecasts for autonomous vehicle sales to The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the three largest markets (North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific) from 2020 to 2035 is expected to average approximately 85%. Navigant Research anticipates the penetration rate of vehicles with autonomous driving modes will average about 4% of the global vehicle market in 2025, rising to roughly 41% in 2030 and 75% by Chart 1.1 Autonomous Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: (Vehicles Millions) North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa (Source: Navigant Research) 4

6 Section 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Executive Summary What Is Autonomous Driving? Market Drivers Technology Issues Forecast Highlights... 4 Section Market Drivers Vision of the Future Driver Benefits Safety Insurance Traffic Flow Smart Cities Legislation and Government Activity Fleet Perspective Military Applications Societal Benefits Next-Generation Customers Section Technology Issues Underlying Technology Advanced Driver Assistance System

7 3.1.2 Vehicle-to-X Navigation Systems Levels of Autonomy Adaptive Speed Control Automatic Emergency Braking Automatic Lane Maintain Freeway Driving Mode Traffic Jam Mode Autonomous Parking System Self-Driving Mode Autonomous Driving Smart Cities Electric Vehicles Sensors The Influence of Other Industries Section Key Industry Players OEMs Audi AG BMW AG Chrysler Daimler AG FIAT S.p.A Ford Motor Company General Motors

8 4.1.8 Honda Motor Company Mazda Mitsubishi Motors Corp Nissan Motor Company PSA Peugeot Citroën Renault S.A Tesla Motors Toyota Motor Corp Volkswagen Volvo Car Corp Major Suppliers Aisin Autoliv Inc Continental AG Delphi Automotive DENSO Corp Harman International Industries Hella KGaA Hueck & Co Robert Bosch GmbH TRW Automotive Valeo Software Companies Google Inc Microsoft Mobileye

9 4.3.4 QNX Software Systems Ltd Other Industry Participants getthere Connected Vehicle Trade Association Ultra Global Other Organizations Section Market Forecasts Global Forecasts Regional Forecasts Technology Forecasts Adaptive Speed Control Automatic Emergency Braking Automatic Lane Maintain Freeway Driving Mode Traffic Jam Mode Autonomous Parking System Self-Driving Mode Autonomous Driving Market Value Conclusions and Recommendations Section Company Directory Section Acronym and Abbreviation List

10 Section Table of Contents Section Table of Charts and Figures Section Scope of Study Sources and Methodology Notes

11 Section 9 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 Autonomous Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.1 Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.2 Autonomous Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.3 Autonomous Vehicle Penetration Rate by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.4 Availability/Take Rate Percentage by Autonomous Feature, World Markets: Chart 5.5 Adaptive Speed Control Fitments by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.6 Automatic Emergency Braking Fitments by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.7 Automatic Lane Maintain Fitments by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.8 Freeway Driving Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.9 Traffic Jam Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.10 Autonomous Parking System Fitments by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.11 Self-Driving Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.12 Autonomous Driving Fitments by Region, World Markets: Chart 5.13 Autonomous Driving Features Value by Region, World Markets: Table 4.1 Other Organizations Active in Some Aspect of Autonomous Driving Table 5.1 Estimated Market Price by Autonomous Driving Feature, World Markets: Table 5.2 Autonomous Driving Feature Value Market Percentages by Region, World Markets:

12 Section 10 SCOPE OF STUDY Navigant Research has prepared this report to provide participants at all levels of the automotive market, including vehicle OEMs, suppliers, government officials, and fleet managers, with a study of the market for autonomous drive technologies on light duty vehicles. The report s objective is to analyze the emerging market and likely future growth for advanced driver assistance systems, how they will evolve toward completely autonomous vehicles, and their impact on the automotive industry. A review of major demand drivers and key industry players within the competitive landscape is also provided. The report s purpose is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies covered, but rather, a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Navigant Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid clients in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included and the forecast period extends through SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Navigant Research s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Navigant Research s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Navigant Research s analysts and its staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Navigant Research s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Navigant Research is a market research group whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. Navigant Research is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets. 70

13 NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value) (1/steps) 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2013 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. 71

14 Published 3Q Navigant Consulting, Inc Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO USA Tel: This publication is provided by Navigant Research, a part of Navigant Consulting, Inc. ( Navigant ), and has been provided for informational purposes only. This publication is intended for the sole and exclusive use of the original purchaser under terms and conditions agreed to by the parties. This publication may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed, or used without the express written permission of Navigant. Navigant makes no claim to any government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data is noted in this publication), and makes no express or implied warranty, guaranty, or representation concerning the information contained in this publication, its merchantability, or its fitness for a particular purpose or function. Any reference to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply an endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Navigant. Navigant does not assume, and hereby disclaims, any liability that may result from any reliance on or use of any information contained in this publication, or for any loss or damage caused by errors or omissions in this publication. If you do not have permission from Navigant covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Navigant at research-info@navigant.com to obtain permission to use this publication Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc. 72