Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler

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1 Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler Making progress in challenging conditions H116 results Financial services The political and economic background in Turkey has been challenging this year but some areas of Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler s (ISY) investment banking business have seen large increases in activity in the first half and ISY has maintained its leading market positions. The current valuation seems reasonable, but a modest increase in assumed returns would increase the indicated value significantly, suggesting an opportunity for investors looking beyond near-term uncertainties. 19 September 2016 Price TRY1.03 Market cap TRY366m Equity (TRYm) at 31 June Shares in issue 355m Free float 28.2% Year end Revenue (TRYm) PBT* (TRYm) EPS* (Kr) DPS (Kr) P/E (x) Yield (%) 12/ / /16e /17e Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. Code Primary exchange Secondary exchange Share price performance ISMEN BIST N/A H1 results ISY s H116 figures showed strong growth in commission revenues (+31%) but a reduction in interest and trading income (-11%), leaving a net increase in revenue of 5.5%. Commission income was particularly strong in foreign exchange and derivative trading. At the consolidated net profit level, there was an increase of 13% versus H115 to TRY26.2m. Segmentally, the main investment banking activity was 40% ahead of the same period last year and asset management recorded an increase of 23%. Losses in the private equity and non-performing loan management businesses reflected weaker trading in investee companies and a delay in collections, respectively. Market environment and outlook The geopolitical background in Turkey has not been easy in recent periods with two general elections in 2015, conflict in neighbouring Syria and Iraq, an influx of refugees, trade restrictions imposed by Russia and, most recently, the attempted coup in July this year. While this is likely to have some continuing effect on the economy, growth has proved resilient and market trading volumes have been strong in some areas. Primary debt issuance has continued to grow although equity IPOs have been muted. Forecasters such as the IMF look for longer-term GDP growth well above the G7 countries at around 3.5%. A period of stability would provide the basis for increased market confidence, increasing the potential for further estimate upgrades for ISY (see page 5 for our estimate changes). Valuation: Balancing risk and reward In a comparison with European investment banks ISY scores well in terms of P/E and return on equity (ROE) and is on a par on price to book value (P/BV). However, using a ROE/COE model, including an assumed ROE of 10%, the current share price appears close to a central value. Positively, increasing the ROE assumption by 1%, easily supported in a more favourable economic climate, would raise the indicated value by 19%. % 1m 3m 12m Abs (1.0) Rel (local) (1.5) 52-week high/low TRY1.15 TRY0.96 Business description IS Yatirim Menkul Degerler s core investment banking division (Is Investment) offers brokerage, corporate finance, investment advisory services, advice on IPOs and portfolio management services. It also has investments in four specialist consolidated subsidiaries. Next event Q3 results October 2016 Analysts Andrew Mitchell +44 (0) Martyn King +44 (0) Julian Roberts +44 (0) Edison profile page Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

2 Company description Established in 1996, Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler (ISY) is part of the Isbank group which is the largest private bank in Turkey; with its affiliates, it owns just over 70% of ISY shares. ISY benefits from Isbank s distribution network and standing among the Turkish business community. ISY s core investment banking division has leading market shares in many aspects of investment banking in Turkey. It is also active in equity IPOs, bond issue, asset management, non-performing loan management and private equity. Turkish financial markets this year The background for Turkish financial markets has been challenging, with political uncertainty including a coup attempt (mid-july) and the presence of regional risks, including troubled neighbours Syria and Iraq. While these have been unhelpful influences for the economy there was positive news at the end of June when Russia announced the progressive removal of its sanctions (following the shooting down of a Russian military jet by Turkish forces in November 2015). In the circumstances, Turkey s Borsa Istanbul 100 index (BIST 100) has been surprisingly resilient; it is up nearly 9% year to date and down less than 6% since the coup attempt (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: BIST 100 index, year to date Exhibit 2: BIST 100 index, last 10 years Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 TRY indexed USD indexed Turkish lira US dollar Source: Bloomberg. Note: to 7 September. Source: Bloomberg Similarly, the exchange rate (Exhibit 3) has displayed relative stability and the two-year government bond yield (Exhibit 4) has fallen since the beginning of the year despite a spike up following the attempted coup. Exhibit 3: Turkish lira vs US$, ytd Exhibit 4: Two-year Turkish govt. bond yield, ytd (%) Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Source: Bloomberg. Note: to 7 September. Source: Bloomberg. Note: to 7 September. Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler 19 September

3 While central bank measures to ease liquidity and support the economy have played a role, these market indicators can also be seen as demonstrating a degree of confidence in the longer-term prospects for the economy and market despite continuing challenges. In terms of the economy it is worth recalling that Turkey recorded compound annual growth of 3.8% between 2006 and 2015 compared with 1.1% for G7 economies, while prospectively the IMF has been looking for GDP growth of approximately 3.5% for the years to Near-term estimates may be trimmed, but longer-term growth expectations seem likely to be broadly maintained. Next we look at trading and issuance activity levels. Exhibit 5 shows the evolution of daily values traded on the equity and derivative markets. While both have shown considerable variation, levels have increased over the period shown; equity trading is marginally ahead and derivative trading is up 7% in the first eight months of this year compared with the same period last year. Exhibit 5: Equity and derivative markets value traded Dec/13 Feb/14 Apr/14 Jun/14 Aug/14 Oct/14 Dec/14 Feb/15 Apr/15 Jun/15 Aug/15 Oct/15 Dec/15 Feb/16 Apr/16 Jun/16 Aug/16 Equity market traded value Derivatives value traded Source: Borsa Istanbul, Edison Investment Research. Note: Indices are based on average daily TRY values. The final two charts in this section show the level of equity and debt issuance since 2006 and 2010 respectively. Equity issuance has been trending down in recent years with increasing economic and political uncertainty following a post-crisis surge. In contrast, there has been no slackening in the growth in debt issues with the run rate year to date ahead of the same period in Exhibit 6: Turkish equity IPOs (number) Exhibit 7: Turkish debt instrument issuance (number) YTD YTD Source: Borsa Istanbul Source: Borsa Istanbul Looking ahead, a period of greater political stability and a normalisation of conditions in the wake of the coup attempt would create more favourable conditions for foreign investment and longer-term economic growth. This would in turn potentially provide an increasingly favourable background for ISY s investment banking activities. Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler 19 September

4 H116 results We start with the performance data by market area for IS Investment (Exhibit 8); here, the largest percentage change between H115 and H116 was in the volume of foreign exchange (FX) margin trading where strong market growth was magnified by an increase in IS Investment s market share from 6.2% to 7.2%. Within primary issuance, debt securities issuance was up 23% and IS Investment retains a leading market share, also at 23%. The number of M&A deals completed remained muted at five versus four last year, reflecting a difficult economic background. While the level of lending for equity margin trading declined 15%, the company reports that profitability here improved. Finally, in asset management overall assets under management (AUM) increased 17% including a particularly strong increase in pension funds (+35%). Exhibit 8: Performance by market area H115 H116 % change % market share Rank FX margin trading (TRY bn) Debt securities issuance (TRY bn) M&A deals closed (number) Equity margin trading (TRY m) Assets under management (TRY bn) of which: Mutual funds Pension funds Other funds Source: IS Investment, Edison Investment Research An analysis of revenues is shown in Exhibit 9. Commission revenues were notably strong (+31% YoY), while there was a decline in interest and trading income. Within commission revenues brokerage saw an increase of over 40% including marked strength in derivative, equity and FX commissions. Corporate finance also showed robust growth with M&A reported as a good contributor despite the still small number of transactions completed, as noted above. Overall revenues increased by 5.5%. Exhibit 9: Revenue analysis TRYm except where stated H115 H116 % change % of total Interest and trading income Commission revenues of which: Brokerage Corporate finance Asset management Other commissions Total revenue Source: IS Investment, Edison Investment Research Costs increased by nearly 17%, with volume-related costs, higher exchange transaction fees and costs denominated in foreign currencies all contributing to the increase. As a result, the cost income ratio increased from 73% to 81%. Exhibit 10: Cost analysis TRYm H115 H116 % change % of total Marketing sales and distribution General administration Other operating expenses Operating expenses % of revenue Source: IS Investment, Edison Investment Research In Exhibit 11 we show the contribution to net profit by segment, summing to consolidated net profits of TRY26.2m, up 13% on H115. Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler 19 September

5 Exhibit 11: Segmental analysis of consolidated net profit TRYm H115 H116 Year-on-year % change IS Investment (100%)* IS Investment Trust (28.9%) IS Private Equity (29.1%) (1.8) (4.9) IS Asset Management (70%) Efes NPL Asset Management (74%) 4.2 (5.7) Elimination Adjustments (18.5) (19.0) Consolidated net profits Source: Is Investment. Note: *Parent company only, percentages in brackets show ISY ownership at 30 June The main business, IS Investment, recorded a 40% increase in net profit from the same period last year and achieved an ROE of 12.5% (group ROE was 8.0% compared with 10.1%). This result would have been significantly higher without a TRY17m corporate bond write-off. IS Private Equity saw an increase in the net loss as a result of weak results from its investee companies (which are consolidated by ISY), reflecting the tough trading background and the fact that these companies are mainly in the investment phase. IS Asset Management s profit increased by 23%. At Efes NPL Asset Management there has been a pause in collections pending the outcome of court proceedings: once resolved, the result for this business is expected to improve. The elimination items largely relate to the investment trust and asset management businesses. Changes to estimates We show the changes in our estimates below reflecting the performance in the first half together with updated assumptions. These include the company s expectation of continued improvement in Asset Management profitability and a higher estimated loss for IS Private Equity than previously. An increase in the expected minority loss within our estimates (increasing equity shareholders earnings all else equal) contributes to a greater attributable profit and EPS increase than we had estimated previously. Exhibit 12: Estimate revisions Revenue (TRYm) Attributable profit (TRYm) EPS (Kr) DPS (Kr) Old New % chg Old New % chg Old New % chg Old New % chg 12/16e % % % % 12/17e % % % % Source: Edison Investment Research Valuation While there are no directly comparable quoted investment banks given ISY s business and geographical profile, we put the company in the context of a group of European banks that have significant investment banking businesses (Exhibit 13). ISY has a considerably higher yield, trades on much lower P/E, and on a comparable P/B multiple despite earning a much higher ROE (c 10% on our estimates). This suggests ISY is relatively undervalued, although currency risk should be borne in mind. We can examine this comparison further by using a rearranged ROE/COE model to calculate an estimate of the risk premium investors ascribe to ISY, assuming a ROE of approximately 10% and growth of 5%. This gives a COE of 12.7% for ISY, versus 6.7% for the European banks on average (using a 4% growth assumption). While the ISY COE derived in this way appears relatively high, it is consistent with the market level of the Turkish 10-year government bond (9.76%), a calculation of the equity risk premium for Turkey (6.8%) and the beta for ISY of 0.48 (both from Bloomberg). This suggests the current share price is close to a central valuation based on a ROE/COE model. Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler 19 September

6 However, we note the sensitivity of the valuation to changing assumptions for the ROE, growth rate or risk free rate. Positive moves could arise from internal measures at ISY or an improvement in the economic environment prompting a higher sustainable ROE input: increasing the ROE assumption to 11%, for example, would give a warranted price to book multiple of 0.75 and an indicated value 19% above the current share price (TRY1.23). Exhibit 13: Peer valuation P/E (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) Return on equity (%) Return on assets (%) 2016e 2017e 2016e 2017e 2016e 2017e 2016e 2017e 2016e 2017e Is Yatirim Average BNP Paribas UBS Credit Suisse Group Société Générale Barclays Deutsche Bank Source: ISY, Bloomberg. Note: Prices as at 16 September Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler 19 September

7 Exhibit 14: Financial summary TRY'm e 2017e Year end 31 December IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS PROFIT & LOSS Total revenue Operating expenses (-266.5) (-314.5) (329.2) (333.6) Other income/expense (net) (-2.1) (-8.5) (12.4) (6.9) Operating profit Share of profit of equity accounted investees (-0.3) (-0.7) (6.0) (6.0) Net financials (-3.0) (-20.1) 1.4 (10.5) Exceptionals Profit Before Tax (norm) Profit Before Tax (FRS) Tax (-7.9) (-11.3) (13.6) (13.9) Profit After Tax (norm) Profit After Tax (FRS) Minority interest 29.7 (-18.1) (-15.4) (-5.4) Net income (norm) Net income (FRS) Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) EPS - normalised fully diluted (kr) EPS - IFRS (kr) Dividend per share (Kr) By Operating entity IS Investment Only IS Investment Trust (28.9%) IS Private Equity (29.1%) 2.2 (7.3) (8.6) (8.1) IS Asset Management (70.0%) Efes NPL Asset Management (74%) (5.7) 8.4 Elimination Adjustments (B) (15.5) (18.6) (19.0) (18.8) Foreign based subsidiaries (0.6) (5.7) Net income BALANCE SHEET Fixed Assets Intangible Assets Tangible Assets Other Current Assets 5, , , ,620.0 Investments Trade receivables 1, , , ,850.0 Cash and equivalents 2, , , ,750.0 Other Total Assets 5, , , ,815.0 Current Liabilities (4,295.0) (4,697.5) (4,725.6) (4,706.9) Short term borrowings (3,140.1) (3,177.6) (3,200.0) (3,200.0) Trade payables (981.2) (1,337.3) (1,350.0) (1,350.0) Other (173.7) (182.7) (175.6) (156.9) Long Term Liabilities (102.2) (175.5) (176.0) (176.0) Long term borrowings (90.1) (140.6) (141.0) (141.0) Other long term liabilities (12.1) (34.9) (35.0) (35.0) Total Liabilities (4,397.2) (4,873.0) (4,901.6) (4,882.9) Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders Minority interest Total shareholders' equity Number of shares at year end (m) NAV per share ROE 11.3% 7.3% 9.7% 9.9% ROA 1.2% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% Cost/income ratio 71.6% 83.3% 82.2% 78.5% Tangible Equity/Assets 17% 15% 15% 15% Tax rate 8% 34% 25% 20% Source: ISY, Edison Investment Research Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler 19 September

8 Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number ) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [ ] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [ ]. DISCLAIMER Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are wholesale clients for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a personalised service and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a class service provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ) FTSE FTSE is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE s express written consent. Frankfurt +49 (0) Is Schumannstrasse Yatirim Menkul 34b Degerler 280 High 19 Holborn September Park Avenue, 39th Floor Level 25, Aurora Place Level 15, 171 Featherston St Frankfurt Germany London +44 (0) London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom New York , New York US Sydney +61 (0) Phillip St, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia Wellington +64 (0) Wellington 6011 New Zealand

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