Global Methane Emissions Washington D.C., 29 March 2016
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1 Global Methane Emissions Washington D.C., 29 March 2016
2 Key questions What is the global outlook for natural gas and methane emissions? What is the role of methane emissions in the climate change debate? What is the IEA planning on doing on methane emissions from oil and gas?
3 bcm Plain sailing for natural gas? World natural gas demand by scenario Current Policies Scenario New Policies Scenario Scenario Global gas demand grows in all scenarios; in the New Policies Scenario demand of 5.2 tcm in 2040 brings gas towards parity with coal & oil in the global energy mix
4 Gas retains a global foothold in a stronger climate policy scenario Mtoe Global fossil-fuel demand by scenario Oil Coal Gas New Policies Scenario (NPS) Oil Gas Coal 450 Scenario (450S) Where it replaces more carbon-intensive fuels or aids the integration of renewables, natural gas can be a good fit for a gradually decarbonising energy system
5 What are the trends in methane emissions from oil and gas operations? mln tons CH4/bln boe Global methane emissions from oil and gas industry US methane emissions trend for oil and gas industry mln tons methane US EPA, 2012? 1.5 gas IEA, IPCC, Global emission estimates vary widely due to lack of data and inconsistent measurement methods US data suggests an overall declining trend in methane emission factors over the last 20 years. oil Source: US EPA and EIA 2015
6 Methane emissions: a credibility issue for natural gas? Mt CH4 Global methane emissions from the oil & gas sector by region in NPS European Union Africa United States China Russia Middle East Rest of world Fugitive methane emissions from the global oil & gas sector remain high, despite advances & pledges by some countries to reduce emissions
7 The coverage of CP21 climate pledges is impressive Russia and Caspian Europe North America 2.0 Gt China 3.8 Gt Middle East 6.1 Gt Africa 2.0 Gt India 8.6 Gt Other Asia OECD Asia Oceania South America 1.1 Gt 1.9 Gt 1.7 Gt 2.2 Gt 1.2 Gt Pledges submitted Not submitted pledges Pledges from countries that account for 95% of global energy-related GHG emissions; their full implementation would be consistent with a temperature rise of 2.7 C The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA.
8 but what about methane emissions? The INDCs of four countries specifically mention methane emission: USA: achieve a 40-45% reduction in methane emissions from 2012 levels by 2025 from oil and gas production Canada, Mexico and Gabon: reduce methane emissions from oil and gas production
9 COP21 Bridge Scenario: peak in GHG emissions in next 5 years Gt CO 2 -eq 40 Global energy-related GHG emissions Bridge Scenario Savings by measure, INDC Scenario Bridge Scenario Upstream methane reductions Fossil-fuel subsidy reform 15% 10% 49% Energy efficiency Scenario Renewables investment 17% 9% Reducing inefficient coal IEA proposed five measures shown in a Bridge Scenario using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth
10 Reducing Upstream Methane Emissions Global oil and gas upstream methane emissions and required reductions Reductions are achievable with existing technologies but implementation will take time
11 What is the IEA planning to do next? Global modeling of methane emissions has a high degree of uncertainty. Just like most organizations, the IEA relies on measurements and data collected by others. In absence of new and more comprehensive data, focus will shift towards outlining best practices for policy recommendations. The IEA seeks inputs from energy sector stakeholders in exploring the topic further.
12 Summary Addressing climate change is imperative and reducing methane emissions is one of the key measures that can help secure a peak in global GHG emissions by 2020 and thus provide a reasonable chance of limiting global warming by 2degC. Technologies for reducing methane emissions are available but action is required now to achieve a peak in emissions. Challenges ahead: The global and regional extent of methane emissions is still poorly understood. How can we tackle the more difficult and costly emission sources? Availability of cheap but reliable constant monitoring solutions? What remote sensing technologies can be used globally to identify major sources and track progress? The discussion and actions are progressing, albeit at a slow pace.
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