Future outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe

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1 Future outlook for Domestic Offsetting in Europe International Workshop on Domestic Offset Schemes Towards scattered ambitions? Zürich, 26 September /10/2013 Bram Borkent

2 Domestic offsetting: what is it? Definition > The generation of emission reduction credits in sectors not covered by an emissions trading scheme, that can be purchased to offset emissions by other entities (within the host country or sometimes abroad). 2

3 Why does it matter? > Carbon price incentive for emission reductions in non- sectors > Attracts domestic investments, innovation, safeguarding jobs > Search engine > Flexibility for regulated sectors (e.g. ) > Marketing 3

4 Trend: increased focus on domestic offset projects Source: 4

5 Key elements and drivers for Domestic Offsetting in Europe 1. EU policy context 2. Demand 3. Supply 4. Cost efficient design 5

6 1. Domestic offsets in EU are embedded in an overarching regulatory frame 6

7 1. Both and non- are capped and allowances can be traded 7

8 2. The lost decade: current GHG targets limit appetite for additional climate policies > EU- Oversupplied by >2 billion allowances Low carbon prices until at least 2023 > Non- 21 Member States on track to reach 2020 target* With existing or currently planned measures > Next decade Low demand for AEAs / EUAs Little incentive to reduce emissions beyond targets *) Source: EEA (2012), Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 8

9 3. Sufficient supply? An example from The Netherlands 9

10 3. Most reduction options are not suitable for Domestic Offsetting leaving limited supply Supply (MtCO2) Transaction costs, implementation barriers, specific issues ~1 MtCO 2 10

11 4. How can you design domestic offsetting cost efficiently? > Three options to be discussed: a. Coupling with the EU ( Article 24a ) b. Government buyer option c. Adoption of a voluntary framework 11

12 Option a: Article 24a Finance for domestic projects by (EU ) market Non- AEA budget Compliance National level 12 ECOFYS 01/10/2013 Name

13 Option a: Article 24a EUA DOC Credits are generated which can be used in EU- Non- AEA budget Government cancels AEAs Compliance National level 13 ECOFYS 01/10/2013 Name

14 Option b: Government buyer option Finance for domestic projects by government Non- AEA budget Compliance National level 14 ECOFYS 01/10/2013 Name

15 Option b: Government buyer option Government sells surplus AEAs AEAs Non- AEA budget Other MS Compliance National level 15 ECOFYS 01/10/2013 Name

16 Option c: Adoption of the voluntary market Finance by market (project developers) Non- AEA budget Compliance National level 16 ECOFYS 01/10/2013 Name

17 Option c: Adoption of the voluntary market Market receives voluntary credits which can be further sold on Government cancels AEAs Non- AEA budget Project developers Private sector Compliance National level 17 ECOFYS 01/10/2013 Name

18 Evaluation of pros and cons: the voluntary market option preferred Article 24a Government buyer Voluntary market Demand Administrative costs Independent Global net mitigation Increases flexibility 18

19 Conclusion > Global trend towards domestic project-based crediting > Domestic Offsetting is an opportunity to reduce emissions and attract domestic investments, but > current European GHG targets provide little environmental incentive for Domestic Offsetting in the next decade > if considered, it should be designed with care, e.g. : Embedding in EU policy context Supply and demand sources Cost efficient design Impact of implementation barriers > The voluntary market is a no lose option; it s benefits need more attention 19

20 Thank you for your attention! > Contact details Dr. ir. Bram Borkent - Consultant Market Based Mechanisms T: +31 (0) M: +31 (0) E: b.borkent@ecofys.com I: 20

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