Estimation of Production/Reserves

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1 Flow rate Estimation of Production/Reserves Objective: forecast future production and reserves $worth$ q oi? predicted D i, b? Reserves? t a? q a? time

2 Flow rate Flow rate Estimation of Production/Reserves 1. Based on skin and flow equation kh(p q r B ln e r w p wf 0.75 S If multiphase flow then k o = f(s w )! ) q oi? predicted D i, b? Reserves? time t a? q a? 2. Comparison/analogy with adjacent wells Initial state or current state? q oi? Historical production Of adjacent well time

3 Pressure Flow rate Estimation of Production/Reserves 2. Comparison/analogy with adjacent wells Initial state or current state? q oi? D i, b? predicted Reserves? t a? q a? time p i t i p t 2 S 0 S>0 Accounts for stimulation Accounts for depletion q oi =? Incremental Reduces! Flowrate incremental

4 Flow rate Estimation of Production/Reserves 2. Comparison/analogy with adjacent wells adjusted? q oi? D i, b? predicted Reserves? t a? q a? time q oi {Proposed well} = adjustment factor * q oi {adjacent well} Variations in: Thickness Area Horizontal length Stimulation, etc

5 Flow rate Estimation of Production/Reserves Abandonment rate? Estimate from economic limit equation q oi predicted D i, b? Refine by observing negative cashflow in economic calculations Reserves? t a? q a? time Abandonment time? Same as above Can define some time limit; e.g., 15 years, after which production is assumed to have minimal impact on NPV

6 Flow rate Flow rate Estimation of Production/Reserves 1. Comparison/analogy with adjacent wells Initial state or current state? q oi D i, b? predicted Reserves? t a? q a? time D i? Historical production Of adjacent well time

7 Estimation of Production/Reserves General Arps decline equation where q i = initial rate (neglecting transient decline), q = rate at time t, D = decline constant, b = decline exponent. q q i 1 bdt 1/ b where b can represent: exponential decline: b = 0 hyperbolic decline: 0 < b < 1 harmonic decline: b = 1.

8 Decline Curve Analysis Basic Concepts Various production decline curves Arps (1945)

9 Decline Curve Analysis Advanced Topics Composite of analytic and empirical type curves (Fetkovich, 1980)

10 Decline Curve Analysis Advanced Topics Decline exponent (b) for various drive mechanisms (Fetkovich, et al, 1994)

11 Decline Curve Analysis Advanced Topics Composite production type curve illustrating layer affects (Fetkovich, et al, 1994)

12 Flow rate Estimation of Production/Reserves 1. Material balance Requires measured reservoir pressure data 2. Volumetrics Account for changes in properties; e.g, Sw. How determine recovery factor? Empirical based on drive mechanism, oil gravity, etc From well logs By EUR{RTA}/N{volumetrics} Account for pressure depletion? (RF)well = 10% < (RF)field = 25% 15% remaining for primary? 3. Rate transient analysis q oi RF wd D i, b? predicted Reserves? time S xo S w (t) 1 S wi Implies as Sw increases, then RF will decrease t a? q a?

13 Estimation of Production/Reserves Soln Gor Oil gravity maximum Sandstones average minimum maximum Carbonates average minimum Drive Sandstones Carbonates minimum average maximum minimum average maximum Water drive Solution gas drive without supplemental drives Solution gas drive with supplemental drives Solution Gas Drive Reservoirs (Arps, 1962) Gas cap drive Combined with sandstone Gravity drainage Data not available Gas depletion Gas water drive Recovery factor for different drive mechanisms

14 J h where Estimation of Production/Reserves S m Horizontal Well Performance Horizontal well flow equation Based on infiniteconductivity horizontal well ln / mechanical S CA shape related skin factor S f ln( L / 4r w ), skin factor due to fully penetrating infinite conductivity fracture r e r w k h / o B o.75 S CA S skin f S m Mutalik,etal

15 Estimation of Production/Reserves Horizontal Well Performance PI horizontal > xpi vertical If less than expected, possible cause is L productive < L drilled. Reservoir heterogeneity Wellbore pressure drop Formation damage

16 Flow rate Estimation of Production/Reserves Acceleration Project Investigate the economic advantage of accelerating production through stimulation frac unfrac time

17 Flow rate Estimation of Production/Reserves Acceleration Project Assume constant volume tank; therefore recovery same in both cases but time is different frac Reserves (frac) = Reserves (unfrac) unfrac E.L. time However, subject to economic limit, thus may capture additional reserves since low production maybe uneconomic.

18 Flow rate Estimation of Production/Reserves Acceleration Project Possibility of gaining additional reserves if stimulation communicates with other compartments/layers Reserves (frac) > Reserves (unfrac) frac unfrac time

19 Flow rate Cumulative production Estimation of Production/Reserves Goal for economic analysis estimate an annual production schedule for oil, gas and water q 1 q 2 q3 q n YR1 YR2 time YR1 YR2 time

20 What are the challenges/key technologies of horizontal wells to develop these resources? 1. How to produce from multiple, stacked pays?

21 Multilateral wells Lower Avalon Shale 1 st Bone Spring Carbonate 1 st Bone Spring Sand

22 What are the challenges/key technologies of horizontal wells to develop these resources? 1. How to produce from multiple, stacked pays? 2. How to improve recovery?

23 Improving recovery Spacing and drainage area? Section Section Section

24 Improving recovery Waterflood (EOR) opportunities? GAS INJECTION WATER INJECTION Section Section GAS INJECTION WATER INJECTION WATER INJECTION GAS INJECTION Section Section

25 Improving recovery Waterflood (EOR) opportunities? New Mexico Texas Miles

26 What are the challenges/key technologies of horizontal wells to develop these resources? 1. How to produce from multiple, stacked pays? 2. How to improve recovery? 3. How to improve the fracture design and increase the SRV?

27 Stimulated Reservoir Volume (SRV) is defined as the volume of a reservoir which is effectively stimulated to increase the well performance. CROSS SECTIONAL VIEW MAP VIEW Estimating SRV from microseismic mapping data (SPE , 2008)

28 SRV, frac spacing and azimuth are key for well placement and spacing strategies. Optimization dependent on: 1. Natural geologic and petrophysical features thickness, stresses, natural fractures, barriers k max = 3.34 md k min = 0.03 md Horizontal well paths A B k Matrix = 0.01 md 10 m N

29 2. Engineering design parameters An estimated 50% of perforation clusters and 25% of stages are not contributing to production nth Stage Second Stage First Stage heel Horizontal well toe spacing How to maximize fracture contact area? a. lateral length and orientation, b. treatment sizes and number of stages, perforation clusters, c. diversion techniques and/or openhole packer completion systems.

30 stage length, ft Number of stages Engineering design parameters carbonates tight ss shales carbonates tight ss shales late late Source: Optimization of Completions in Unconventional Reservoirs JPT, July 2011, SPE

31 What are the challenges/key technologies of horizontal wells to develop these resources? 1. How to produce from multiple, stacked pays? 2. How to improve recovery? 3. How to improve the fracture design and increase the SRV? 4. What are the environmental impacts on horizontal wells and how can they be mitigated?

32 Environmental issues with hydraulic fracturing Composition Typical shale Fracturing Mixture Makeup Typical Chemical Additives Used in Frac Water Compound Purpose Common application Acids Helps dissolve minerals and initiate fissure in rock (prefracture) Swimming pool cleaner Sodium Chloride Polyacrylamide Ethylene Glycol Borate Salts Allows a delayed breakdown of the gel polymer chains Minimizes the friction between fluid and pipe Prevents scale deposits in the pipe Maintains fluid viscosity as temperature increases Table salt Water treatment, soil conditioner Automotive antifreeze, deicing agent, household cleaners Laundry detergent, hand soap, cosmetics Sodium/Potassium Carbonate Maintains effectiveness of other components, such as crosslinkers Washing soda, detergent, sopa, water softener, glass, ceramics Glutaraldehyde Guar Gum Citric Acid Isopropanol Eliminates bacteria in the water Thickens the water to suspend the sand Prevents precipitation of metal oxides Used to increase the viscosity of the fracture fluid Disinfectant, sterilization of medical and dental equipment Thickener in cosmetics, baked goods, ice cream, toothpaste, sauces Food additive; food and beverages, lemon juice Glass cleaner, antiperspirant, hair coloring Source: DOE, GWPC: Modern Gas Shale Development in the United States: A Primer (2009)

33 Environmental issues with hydraulic fracturing Contamination Drilled in hydrocarbon bearing zone Drilling or other contamination SOURCE Variable groundwater quality? Challenges to: Testing Procedures Interpretation of data CONTAMINATION Hydraulic fracturing of HC zones Pathways: 1. by uncemented or poorly cemented wellbores 2. By fracturing into the shallow layers 3. By activating existing fractures above the target formation and subsequently increasing connectivity

34 Environmental issues with hydraulic fracturing Water Usage Increase need for fresh water for stimulation of the horizontal wells. An average stimulation treatment consumes 2 million gallons or 6 acrefeet of water per well. In comparison, the City of Carlsbad 2010 usage was 8,537 acrefeet. (Source: City of Carlsbad Municipal Water System, 2010 Annual Consumer Report on the Quality of Your Drinking Water) Reclaim, recycle and reuse flowback water, or use produced water as base frac fluid.

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