B. COUNTRY RESULTS. 1. France

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1 B. COUNTRY RESULTS. France (a) Past trends Between and, the total fertility rate in France remained above. children per woman, but later dropped by per cent, from. in - to. in -. During that period the life expectancy at birth, for both sexes combined, increased from. years in - to. years in -. One of the consequences of these changes was that the proportion of the population aged or older increased from. per cent in to. per cent in, while the proportion of the population aged - remained nearly constant at nearly per cent. France was the country with the oldest population at the beginning of the twentieth century. In the potential support ratio was. persons aged - for each person aged or older. It declined further to. in and to. in. (b) Scenario I Scenario I, the medium variant of the United Nations projections, assumes a total of, net immigrants from to and none after. It projects that the total population of France would increase from. million in to. million in, and decline to. million in (the results of the United Nations projections are shown in the annex tables). At that date, persons (. per cent of the total population) would be post- migrants or their descendants. The population aged - would increase from. million in to. million in and then decrease to. million in. The population aged or older would keep increasing, from. million in to. million in, before declining slightly to. million in. As a result, the potential support ratio would decrease by nearly half, from. in to. in. (c) Scenario II Scenario II, which is the medium variant with zero migration, uses the fertility and mortality assumptions of the medium variant of the United Nations projections, but without any migration to France after. The results are very similar to those of scenario I. The total population of France would increase from. million in to. million in and then start decreasing, to. million in. The population aged - would increase from. million in to. million in, and then decrease to. million in. The population aged or older would keep increasing, from. million in to. million in, before declining slightly to. million in. As a result, the potential support ratio would decrease by nearly half, from. in to. in. (d) Scenario III Scenario III keeps the size of the total population constant at its maximum of. million in. In order to achieve this, it would be necessary to have. million immigrants between and, an average of, per year. By, out of a total population of. million,. million, or. per cent, would be post- immigrants or their descendants. (e) Scenario IV Scenario IV keeps the size of the population aged - constant at its maximum of. million in. For this to happen,. million immigrants would be needed between and, an average of, per year. By, out of a total population of. million,. million, or. per cent, would be post- immigrants or their descendants. United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

2 (f) Scenario V Scenario V does not allow the potential support ratio to decrease below the value of.. In order to do this, no immigrants would be needed until, and. million immigrants would be needed between and, an average of. million per year during that period. By, out of a total population of. million,. million, or percent, would be post- immigrants or their descendants. (g) Scenario VI Scenario VI keeps the potential support ratio at its value of.. In order to achieve this,. million immigrants would be needed from to, an average of. million per year, and. million immigrants from to, an average of. million per year. By, out of a total population of million, million, or. per cent, would be post- immigrants or their descendants. (h) Additional considerations As a point of comparison, the official net immigration recorded in France was an average of, per year for - and an average of, per year for -. Thus, the number of migrants needed to prevent a decline in the total size of the population (scenario III) would be comparable to the past experience of immigration to France. Furthermore, the number of migrants that would be needed to keep constant the size of the population of labour-force age (scenario IV) is about double the level experienced in the early s. In addition, under scenario IV, in the proportion of post- immigrants and their descendants within the total population (. per cent) would be comparable to the proportion of foreign-born that exists currently (. per cent in ). Figure shows, for scenarios I, II, III and IV, the population of France in, indicating the share that consists of post- migrants and their descendants. However, the number of immigrants needed to keep the potential support ratio at its level would be vastly larger than any previously experienced migration flow, to times the annual numbers of the last years. Furthermore, more than two thirds of the resulting population in would be composed of post- immigrants and their descendants. In the absence of migration, the figures show that it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of the working-age to years to obtain in a potential support ratio of. in and to about years in order to obtain in the same potential support ratio observed in France in, which was. persons of working-age per each older person past working-age. Increasing the activity rates of the population, if it were possible, would only be a partial palliative to the decline in support ratio due to ageing. If the activity rates of all men and women aged to should increase to per cent by, this would make up for only per cent of the loss in the active support ratio resulting from the ageing of the population. United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

3 TABLE. POPULATION INDICATORS FOR FRANCE BY PERIOD FOR EACH SCENARIO Scenario I II III IV V VI * Medium variant Medium variant with zero migration Constant total population Constant age group - Ratio -/+ not less than. Constant ratio -/ years or older Period A. Average annual number of migrants (thousands) B. Total number of migrants (thousands) C. Total population (thousands) D. Age group - (thousands) E. Age group - (thousands) F. Age group + (thousands) G. Potential support ratio -/ * Scenario VI is considered to be demographically unrealistic. United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

4 FRANCE Figure. Age-sex structures by scenario for, and (Population in millions) Medium variant Constant total population Constant age group - Age Population without migration after Migrants plus descendants United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

5 FRANCE Figure (continued) Ratio -/+ not less than. Constant ratio -/ years or older United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

6 Figure. Population of France in, indicating those who are post- migrants and their descendants, by scenario Population (millions) Migrants plus descendants Population without migration after I. Medium variant II. Zero migration III. Constant total population Scenario IV. Constant working age United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration