WORLDWIDE ECONOMIC & SHIPPING OUTLOOK 1Q 2015
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1 Thursday, 21 May 215 Mövenpick Hotel WORLDWIDE ECONOMIC & SHIPPING OUTLOOK 1Q 215 Presented By: Maria Bertzeletou, Senior Shipping Analyst 1
2 SECTION 1 SECTION 2 Macroeconomics Review-Projections Shipping Market Review - Projections Global Economy Advanced / Emerging Global Trade Dry / Wet / Container Freight Market Fleet Growth Investment Trends Threats & Opportunities 2
3 SECTION 1 MACRO ECONOMICS 3
4 An Uneven Global Recovery continues Advanced Emerging Firmer Growth from 213 US emerging the strongest Euro delayed recovery Low inflation ratio Weaker Growth from 213 for the first time since 1999 IND emerging the strongest China loosing its supremacy GDP Growth 215 US 3.1% - Euro 1.3% GDP Growth 215 India 7.5% - China 6.8% US appreciation Euro depreciation Recession in Japan Negative growth: Brazil /Russia 4
5 Global Economy: GDP Growth Rates Slower Recovery World Output - GDP Growth % Annual Growth Rate 3.7% % from UPSIDE RISKS LOWER OIL PRICE DOWNSIDE RISKS LOWER INVESTMENT STAGNATION IN EURO JAPAN GEOPOLITICAL RISKS Statistics Figures based on IMF APR
6 Advanced Economies: Stronger GDP Growth GDP Growth % Annual Growth Rate 2.4% % from Emerging Economies: GDP Growth % Weaker GDP Growth Annual Growth Rate 4.5% % from Statistics Figures based on IMF APR
7 World Trade Modest recovery after 3yrs of Slowdown Growth % Annual Growth Rate 3.7% % from E 216E DOWNSIDE RISKS Imports of Emerging < Advanced Weaker Growth of Asia Shipping Demand in Threat Emerging Merchandise Imports- Growth % Annual Growth Rate 5.1% % from Asia E 216E UPSIDE RISKS Exports of Emerging > Advanced Statistics Figures based on WTO APR
8 SECTION 2 SHIPPING MARKET 8
9 FREIGHT MARKET OVERVIEW Dry-Negative Trend : BDI at the lowest since 1986 (fleet growth 89% from 2 - >1, vessels) Wet- Positive Trend: Upside performance of VLCC is closely related to the sharp drop in brent (fleet growth 76% from 2 ->5,9 vessels) EIA estimates brent crude average price $59/barrel in 215 and $75/barrel in 216 Container: SCFI<1 Asia /Europe recession-lowest levels since 29 (fleet growth 92% from 2 ->5, vessels) 9
10 Baltic Exchange Indices Modern Tonnage (DRY / WET) 1 year TC -$/day Dry - Indices % y-o-y Dry /Wet- Large Size Categories % y-o-y % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% BDI BCI BPI BSI BHSI -45% -34% -31% -45% -71% 8% 5% 2% -1% -4% -7% -1% Capesize Panamax VLCC Suezmax -53% -35% 6% 43% Wet- Indices % y-o-y Dry /Wet- Small Size Categories % y-o-y 15% 1% 5% % 1% BDTI 13% BCTI 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% 31% Handymax Handy Aframax MR -28% -14% -1% 1
11 1 year TC -$/day Modern Tonnage (DRY / WET) Dry - Large Size Categories Dry - Small Size Categories 25, 21,7 12, 11,4 8,8 2, 1, 12, 15, 215 8, 8,2 7, , 1, 1,3 7,8 4, 5, 2, Capesize-17, dwt Panamax-75, dwt Handymax-52, dwt Handy-34, dwt Wet - Large Size Categories Wet - Small Size Categories 5, 4, 3, 2, 45, 28,1 33, 23, , 2, 15, 1, 23, 17,5 15,2 15, , 5, VLCC-31, dwt Suezmax-15, dwt Aframax-11, dwt MR-47, dwt 11
12 1 year TC -$/day Modern Tonnage (CONTAINERS) Firm growth against the fall in spot rates Container - Large Size Categories Container - Small Size Categories 15, 1, 5, 15, 1,25 8,8 7, , 8, 6, 4, 2, 9,25 8, 7,4 7, ,4 TEU 3,5 TEU 2,75 TEU 1,7 TEU Container- Large Size Categories % y-o-y Container- Small Size Categories % y-o-y 8% 6% 4% 2% % 7% 33% 4,4 TEU 3,5 TEU 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 25% 14% 2,75 TEU 1,7 TEU 12
13 GROWTH OF SHIPPING INVESTMENTS AFTER 29 ASSET PRICES / INVESTMENT TRENDS 13
14 SECONDHAND/NEWBUILDING MARKET (INVESTMENTS) 14
15 SECONDHAND MARKET (BULKERS/TANKERS) BULKER INVESTMENTS DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT BULKER INVESTMENTS DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL AGE 1-15 YRS 8, 6, 74,69 67,332 81,111 57, , 2, Count of Vessel Purchases Average of Vessel DWT Average of Vessel Age , 6, TANKER INVESTMENTS INCREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT 52,552 67,318 91,45 8, TANKER INVESTMENTS DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL AGE 5-1 YRS 9 9 4, , Count of Vessel Purchases Average of Vessel DWT Average of Vessel Age 11 15
16 Asset Prices Trends BULKER SEGMENT (HANDY / HANDYMAX) 1,-29,999 DWT Handy Vessel Age Shiftting trend >15yrs Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend 3,-39,999 DWT Handysize Vessel Age Shiftting trend 6-1yrs Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend 4,-49,999 DWT Handymax Vessel Age Flat 15-2yrs Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend 16
17 Asset Prices Trends BULKER SEGMENT (SUPRA/PANAMX/CAPE) 5,-59,999 DWT Supramax Vessel Age 6-1 yrs Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend 6,-79,999 DWT Panamax Vessel Age 1-15 yrs Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend Capesize Vessel Age 1-15 yrs Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend 17
18 Asset Prices Trends TANKER SEGMENT (SMALL/HANDY/MR) Small Vessel Age Shiftting trend < 1yrs Asset Price Increasing trend ST ST Handy Vessel Age Increasing trend > 1yrs Asset Price Sharp Declining Trend MR Vessel Age Declining trend < 1yrs Asset Price Soft Increasing Trend 18
19 Asset Prices Trends TANKER SEGMENT (CRUDE SIZES) Aframax Vessel Age Declining trend < 1yrs Asset Price Sharp Increasing Trend Suezmax Vessel Age Declining trend < 1yrs Asset Price Sharp Increasing Trend VLCC Vessel Age Declining trend < 15yrs Asset Price Sharp Increasing Trend 19
20 NEWBUILDING MARKET (BULKERS/TANKER) 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, BULKER NB INVESTMENTS DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT: SUPRAMAX 72,462 92,827 86,79 54, BULKER ORDERING PER VESSEL SIZE Ultramax Handysize Capesize Kamsarmax Supramax Handymax Panamax Handy (1,-29,999) 5% 2% 2% 2% 16% 16% 21% 3% % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, TANKER NB INVESTMENTS INCREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT: CRUDE 9,155 89,92 96, , TANKER ORDERING PER VESSEL SIZE MR-Handymax 39% Handysize 16% Aframax 14% VLCC 13% SMALL 8% SUEZMAX 7% Panamax 3% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2
21 BULKER SEGMENT (HANDY /MEDIUM SIZES) Handysize Country Built China- Major share Asset Price Flat-Upward trend Supramax Country Built Japan- Major share Asset Price Flat trend Ultramax Country Built China- Major share Asset Price Downward trend 21
22 BULKER SEGMENT (LARGE SIZES) Panamax Country Built Japan- Major share Asset Price Flat- trend Kamsarmax Country Built China- Major share Asset Price Flat-Upward trend Capesize Country Built China- Major share Asset Price Increasing trend 22
23 TANKER SEGMENT (HANDY /MEDIUM SIZES) MR Country Built SKR Major share Asset Price Upward trend Handysize Country Built Japan Major share Asset Price Upward trend Small Country Built China Major share Asset Price Upward trend 23
24 TANKER SEGMENT (LARGE SIZES) VLCC Country Built China- Major share Asset Price Increasing trend Suemax Country Built SKR- Major share Asset Price Flat - Downward trend Aframax Country Built China Major share Asset Price Flat - Upward trend 24
25 FLEET GROWTH - ORDERBOOK 25
26 Declining Fleet Growth But Excessive Fleet 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, BULKERS 12% 1,315 4% 3,861 2, E 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, TANKERS % 1% 1, E 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Orderbook Current Fleet Fleet Growth Orderbook Current Fleet Fleet Growth Baltic Dry Index (2-215 ) Baltic Dirty / Clean Index (2-215 ) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, , 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Exchange Clean Tanker Index
27 Orderbook Growth (2-215) BULKERS Declining Trend TANKERS Upward Trend 4,4 4, 3,6 3,2 2,8 2,4 2, 1,6 1, ,9 2,156 1,829 2, ,4 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, ,39 2,76 1,92 1,779 1,441 1, E 15.% % Growth (2-215 ) 6.% % Growth (2-215 ) 1.% 4.% 5.% 2.%.% -5.% % -2.% E Demolitions (2-215) % Demolitions (2-215)
28 EXISTING FLEET -BULKERS (ORDERBOOK) VLOC 218 VLOC 61 Cape 12,-29, Cape 12,-29, Kamsmx-Mini Cape 1176 Kamsmx-Mini Cape 358 Ultramax-Panamax 6,- 171 Ultramax-Panamax 6,- 68 Supramax 5,-59, Supramax 5,-59, Handymax 4,-49, Handymax 4,-49, Handysize 2,-39, Handysize 2,-39, Handy 1,-19, Handy 1,-19, LARGE SIZES : 85% of Cape fleet is -15 yrs old scrapping potentials in the age of yrs 6% of fleet 7% of Ultra/Panamax fleet is -15 yrs old scrapping potentials in the age of yrs 11% of fleet 4% of Handymax fleet is -15 yrs old scrapping potentials in the age of yrs 25% of fleet HANDY SIZES: 2,-35, Dwt : 68% of fleet is -15 yrs old scrapping potentials in the age of yrs 14% of fleet 1,-19,999 Dwt: 6% of fleet is -15 yrs old scrapping potentials in the age of yrs 28% of fleet DELY SCHEDULE VLOC 19 Cape 12,-29, Kamsmx-Mini Cape 176 Ultramax-Panamax 6,- 362 Supramax 5,-59, Handymax 4,-49, Handysize 2,-39, Handy 1,-19,
29 EXISTING FLEET -TANKERS (ORDERBOOK) Small<1,dwt Handysize Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC Small<1,d 67 Handysize 528 Panamax 44 Aframax 138 Suezmax 86 VLCC CRUDE : 91% of VLCC fleet is -15 yrs old scrapping potentials in the age of 16-2 yrs 7% of fleet 86% of Suezmax fleet is -15 yrs old scrapping potentials in the age of 16-2 yrs 1% of fleet 86% of Aframax fleet is -15 yrs old scrapping potentials in the age of 16-2 yrs 8% of fleet PRODUCT: 96% of Panamax fleet is -15 yrs old scrapping potentials in the age of 16-2 yrs 2% of fleet 1,-59,999 Dwt Handy /MR: 9% of fleet is -15 yrs old scrapping potentials in the age of 16-2 yrs 8% of fleet yrs 5% of fleet 66% of Small fleet is -15 yrs old scrapping potentials in the age of 2-34 yrs 2% of fleet Small<1,dwt Handysize Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC DELY SCHEDULE
30 CONCLUSION : OVERCAPACITY PREVAILS : WILL BE CHALLENGING PERIOD 3
31 VESSEL TYPE SIZE-AGE : KEY ELEMENTS VESSEL TYPE : PREFERENCE ON VESSELS WITH THE LEAST RISK OF FLEET GROWTH AND THE UPSIDE RISK OF FIRM DEMAND GROWTH VESSEL SIZE: PREFERENCE ON VESSELS FEXIBLE FOR VESSEL EMPLOYMENT AND MORE SPECIALIZED SIZES (SMALL BULKERS CHEMICAL TANKERS) BULKERS: AVG DWT 52, TANKERS: AVG DWT 8, SOLD THIS YEAR SOLD THIS YEAR VESSEL AGE: MODERN TONNAGE UP TO 1 YRS OLD AVERAGE AGE OF VESSEL SOLD FOR THIS YEAR IS ABOUT 13 YRS SECONDHND OR NEWBUILDING? PREFER GROWTH SECONDHAND: TO LOWER THE THREAT OF FLEET GROWTH AND CONTRIBUTE IN FIRMER BE MORE SCEPTICAL NEWBUILDING: SELECT VESSEL SIZES THAT HAVE AMPLE UNITS OF SCRAP CANDIDATES DEMOLITION ACTIVITY: WILLING TO SCRAP VINTAGE TONNAGE BETWEEN 15-2YRS OLD TO ALLEVIATE OVERSUPPLY IN DRY & WET 31
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