TERMS OF REFERENCE EXTERNAL CONSULTING FIRM. Package number: GEM/CS/CQ/2016/140

Transcription

1 TERMS OF REFERENCE EXTERNAL CONSULTING FIRM Package number: GEM/CS/CQ/2016/ BACKGROUND The Government of Nigeria has emphasized the importance of diversifying the economy, supporting sectors that have potential for growth and creating massive employment. In line with this commitment, the Government has sought the World Bank s partnership to help Nigeria support Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) operating in different high potential sectors throughout the country. This support is being implemented under the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment (FMITI) and operationalized in the Growth and Employment (GEM) Project by the Project Implementation Unit (PIU). The GEM Project Development Objective is to increase firm growth and employment in participating firms in Nigeria. The project became effective in July 2013, and will close in September The project focuses on manufacturing and service sectors, specifically supporting ICT, entertainment, tourism and hospitality, light manufacturing and construction. Project support addresses cross cutting sector issues, assistance to specific clusters, and more direct support to firms channeled through a platform called the Business Innovation and Growth (BIG) Platform providing various trainings, technical assistance and grant schemes. The Project Implementation Unit (PIU) is organized into two pillars that complement each other: Pillar 1 includes the definition of cluster activities as well as implementation of cluster-level activities while Pillar 2 the Business Innovation and Growth Platform is a an internet-based platform that will channel all firm-level activities. The primary objective of Pillar 1, to which the External experts will contribute, is to identify opportunities and market failure(s) for each GEM sector and formulate recommendations. The team responsible for this Pillar is also in charge of implementing the recommended activities except firmlevel activities that go through the BIG platform (Pillar 2). The External experts will provide the global knowledge in a particular sector (global trends and innovations, opportunities for firms, international best practices and examples of successful interventions) and propose actionable and clear recommendations. They could be firms or individual consultants and will be hired for one particular sector. These Terms of Reference are for a firm (referred as Consultant hereafter) to provide market analysis for the 5 GEM clusters. 2. OBJECTIVE(S) OF THE ASSIGNMENT The objective of this assignment is to provide the GEM project with a deep market understanding of selected value chains within Nigeria, and an appraisal of their competitiveness in relation to other countries recognized for significant trading in these value chains. This intelligence will be used to inform

2 the development of GEM supported interventions, as well as providing valuable intelligence to private sector value chain stakeholders directly, towards the goal of creating jobs and growth. The consultant will produce market assessment reports for seven value chains a year in the five GEM clusters, namely ICT, Entertainment, Construction, ICT and Hospitality. The proposed market analysis will include the elements as per Annex 1. The Consultant will be assessed on the delivery of: 1) 2) 3) 4) A high level of sector-expertise present in the assessments A high level of international expertise specific to the market segment in the assessments A high level of strategic vision on the international trends effecting the market segment in the assessments In coordination with the Project Implementation Unit and the World Bank, proposed recommendations that address the identified market failures and are actionable, feasible and lead to post GEM sustainability. 3. SCOPE AND TASKS OF THE ASSIGNMENT This contract will be renewed yearly upon the quality and timeliness of the outputs. The first year, the assignment will include the following subsectors: leather (including in Aba), Automotive spare parts (including in Nnewi), palm oil production (including in Port Harcourt), music sector, movie sector, MICE (Meeting, Incentives, Conferencing and Exhibitions) sector (including in Calabar), and software production. We define a market sub-segment as a combination of suppliers, producers, wholesalers, retailers, other relevant ancillary services and other key stakeholders as per the graphic below.

3 The task of the assignment is to provide a market assessment for each of the previously cited sectors. The market assessment should be based on the conduct of the following sub-tasks: 1) Collect primary data in Nigeria. The Consultant will be supported by existing data and data collected along the way through a platform. However the primary source of data will be collected by the Consultant. 2) Develop a market analysis for each sub-segment, which will include the following tasks: i. Provide an overview of the international market.the Consultant will provide a list of key countries involved in this market segment, which would include a discussion of market opportunities, trends, and risk factors affecting the segment at the international level. The purpose is to understand the positioning and the potential of Nigeria in the regional, continental, and international market for the particular market segment; ii. Provide a detailed market analysis for each market segment. The Consultant is expected to provide a detailed market assessment for each market segment in Nigeria, based on a combination of detailed primary (including existing in-house market analysis, store checks and interviews) and secondary research (including desk review and data collected by the Technology provider). It will include i) structure of the value chain in Nigeria (linked market, natural resources, etc), i) detailed costs, benefit and margin analysis along the value chain, ii) an analysis of the main players and their market shares, iii) a mapping of the locations of suppliers and customers, iv) an identification of the market segments (profile of customers, pricing and preferences).

4 3) 4) 5) iii. iv. i. ii. Compare Nigerian performance to international performance. The Consultant will compare the key performance indicators to 2/3benchmarks to perform an operational comparison of Nigeria versus the global market segment. Identify market failures, opportunities and risks specific to the Nigerian market. The Consultant will identify which market failures of the Nigerian market are contributing to underperformance. Map out existing support activities to the sub-segment. The objective is to avoid designing interventions for the sub-segment that are already implemented by other donors, NGOs or governmental agencies. Hence, the Consultant will map out key existing support activities - that are ongoing or planned - to support one or more stakeholders in the value chain in Nigeria. The Consultant will also provide 3/4 examples from at least 2/3 comparator countries of 1/2 successful support activitiesand 1/2 moderately satisfactory or unsatisfactory support activities to inform the PIU and World Bank task team of possible actions; Propose strategies for improving competitiveness. Identify possible actions. With the support of the World Bank Task team and the PIU, the Consultant will build on identified market failures to propose strategies for improving the competitiveness of the Nigerian market segment, which will draw on international best practice and segment-specific expertise. Make actionable recommendations on policy intervention.with the support of the PIU and in coordination with the World Bank Task team, the Consultant will align proposed strategies with GEM resources to make actionable recommendations on policy intervention. Provide post-delivery support. The Consultant will provide on-going research support to answer questions on the data, analysis and recommendations. This includes participation to meetings to formulate actionable recommendations. This includes a minimum of 2 full days per sub-segment for policy recommendations, feedback on tailored and refined recommendations from the Nigerian private sector via Video conference or audio (provided by the Technology provider). 4. DELIVERABLES, TIMELINE and PAYMENT FOR THE ASSIGNMENT Deliverable(s) Timeline Comments Payment Inception report October 17th, percent Mid-term deliverables for sub-segment 1 and subsegment 2 December 5th, 2016 A live mid-term review will be used to validate that the progress of the assignment is

5 in line with GEM objectives Draft deliverable for subsegment 1 and subsegment 2 January 16 th, 2017 Final deliverable for subsegment 1 and subsegment 2 January 31 th, 2017 The final deliverable will have incorporated feedback received on the draft deliverable 20 percent Draft deliverable for subsegment 3 and subsegment 4 April 21 st, 2017 Final deliverable for subsegment 3 and subsegment 4 May 5 th, percent Draft deliverable for subsegment 5, sub-segment 6 and sub-segment 7 August 15 th, 2017 Final deliverable for subsegment 5, sub-segment 6 and sub-segment 7 August 30 th, percent Final report on recommendations September 15 th, 2017 This report will include status of the recommendations (proposed, refined and underway/ongoing) as well as the stocktaking of the participation of the Consultant to the agreed meetings 15 percent 5. PLACE AND DURATION OF THE MISSION The Consultant will work remotely, but will be available by video conference to discuss the mid-term deliverable and the final deliverable. It will regularly report to the Cluster Leader on the phone. 6. QUALIFICATIONS The Consultant must demonstrate the following relevant qualifications,: General - At least 10 cumulative years of experience in market analysis - Evidence of a market analysis in each of the GEM clusters (not necessarily in Nigeria) - At least 10 cumulative years of experience in international business or consulting - Experience with international benchmarking and strategy consulting

6 Task-specific - Data Collection.Aproven record in all types of research methodology, including desk review, fieldbased quantitative research, qualitative face-to-face in-depth interviews, web-based survey, focus Group Discussions. - On-the-ground network of research analysts in Nigeria, who are close to sources and industry contacts, and observe markets first-hand. - An established track record on similar engagements, and evidence of experience in market analysis by providing a sample of a market analysis done in Nigeria. - A strong relationship network across the West African value chain, covering market participants and regulators - Evidence of prior success in identifying, designing and implementing market system changing / high impact value chain interventions that addressed market failures ANNEX- DRAFT AND INDICATIVE PROPOSITION FOR THE MARKET ASSESSMENT REPORT 1. Overview of the sector International overview Which are the countries that are most significant to this market segment globally, and why? Which are the major companies operating in this market segment, and where do they do business internationally?

7 1-2 pages What is the macroeconomic outlook for these countries, specifically as it relates to the impact on companies operating in the market segment? How do international trends in the market segment look to impact the market segment in these countries, and what effect will this have on companies operating in this market segment in Nigeria? Based on a discussion of international trends in the market segment, what are the opportunities and risk factors for companies operating in this market segment internationally? Nigerian Overview 1-2 pages What is the market segment s contribution to the national economy, in terms of GDP and employment? How is the market segment distributed throughout Nigeria, in terms of GDP and employment? Provide distribution for the main relevant regions in Nigeria. What are the driving factors behind the geographic distribution of the market segment in Nigeria? How will global trends in the market segment impact the performance of the market segment in Nigeria? What opportunities and risk factors does this present for companies operating in this market segment in Nigeria? 2. Review of market demand Market Sizing (should include tables directly from market sizing financial model) 3-5 pages What is the annual market demand (NGN and units) in the market segment in Nigeria for the last 5 years? What are the major categories of consumption within the market segment? What is the annual market supply (NGN and units) in the market segment in Nigeria for the last 5 years? What are the major categories of production within the market segment? What is the geographic distribution of these markets across Nigeria? Which are the major hubs of production? Which are the major hubs of consumption? Who are the major players in the market segment, and what is their market share in Nigeria? Growth Forecast What is the forecasted annual market demand (NGN and units) in the market segment in Nigeria for the next 5 years? Which categories of market

8 (should include tables directly from market sizing financial model) 3-5 pages consumption most contributed to growth/decline? What is the forecasted annual market supply (NGN and units) in the market segment in Nigeria for the next 5 years? Which categories of market production most contributed to growth/decline? What were the major drivers of growth/decline in the market segment forecast? What are the underlying business issues that will accelerate or hinder the forecast of the market segment? What are the macroeconomic trends that will accelerate or hinder the forecast of the market segment? What was the performance of the major hubs of consumption and production within Nigeria in the forecast? What were the major drivers of this performance? Which are rapidly growing/declining regions in Nigeria? 3. Distribution environment Value Chain (should include tables directly from value chain financial model) 3-5 pages How is the value chain of the market segment structured in Nigeria? What are the major stages of value addition that occur within Nigeria versus imported? What are the major distribution channels in the market segment within Nigeria? How does this effect regional trade relationships within Nigeria? Who are the major customers of the market segment, and where are they located in Nigeria? Who are the major suppliers of the market segment, and where are they located in Nigeria? What are the margins (cost-revenues analysis) at each stage of the value chain within the market segment in Nigeria? Which player in the value chain in Nigeria is making the highest versus lowest margin? How will future market conditions over the next 5 years impact the margins of each player in the value chain in Nigeria? Competitive Landscape 2-3 pages Within the market segment in Nigeria, what is the annual sales and production of the top 10 players in the market segment, and what is the market share of each player? This will include a more qualitative analysis of potentially informal or hidden rules, power relationships, incentives and monopolies along the value chain. What is the total population of players in the market segment in Nigeria.? Is the competitive landscape highly fragmented? consolidated? How will future market conditions impact the competitive landscape in Nigeria?

9 4. Environment & regulatory landscape\ Policy and legislation 2-3 pages Which tax incentives are currently offered to the market segment in Nigeria? How has this changed over the past 5 years? How does this compare to countries presented in the international overview? Which investment incentives are offered to the market segment in Nigeria? How has this changed over the past 5 years? How does this compare to countries presented in the international overview? What national legislation currently regulates business activity in the market segment in Nigeria? Regional legislation? How does the regulatory environment in Nigeria compare to countries presented in the international overview? How can changes in policy and/or legislation in Nigeria affect the market segment in Nigeria? Case studies on existing activities 2-3pages How does a case study illustrate the impact of the policy environment on the market segment s value chain in Nigeria? How does a case study illustrate the impact of the regulatory environment on the market segment s value chain in Nigeria?

10 5. Challenges and market failures Business factors that impact market segment development 4-6 pages What are the underlying mechanisms in the market segment that shape the performance of firms in Nigeria? Are we looking at the export market (international or regional) or the domestic market? Why are firms in Nigeria not capturing more of global growth in the market segment? What is limiting the market segment in Nigeria from achieving more growth? How do these underlying mechanisms look to be effected in Nigeria over the next five years? What risks to firm performance in Nigeria does this present? What opportunities in the market segment does this present? Why will firms in the market segment in Nigeria experience growth/decline in the next 5 years? Policy factors that impact market segment development 1-2 pages What policy factors will impact the market segment in Nigeria? Are there regulator barriers that might improve? Are there investment incentives currently unexploited? Are there trade subsidies that will be removed? What type of opportunities does this present for growth or decline in the market segment in Nigeria? Risk Assessment 3-4 pages What risks might impact the development of the market segment related to the overall macroeconomic environment (e.g. access to foreign currency, ban on imports, etc)? What risks might impact the market segment related to political risk (e.g. security issues, political instability, international diplomacy, etc)? What risks might impact the market segment related to sector-specific market dynamics (e.g. access to distribution, infrastructure, innovation, technology, etc)? How might these risks impact the market forecast developed in the financial model?

11 6. Development strategy&action plan Strategic Recommendation 2-3 pages What strategies should be adopted for improving the competitiveness of the Nigerian market segment? Which strategies will provide the most lift? What international experience can be used to understand how to improve the competitiveness of the Nigerian market segment? What are the similarities, and how does it relate to the situation in Nigeria? What sector-specific experience can be used to understand how to improve the competitiveness of the Nigerian market segment? What are the similarities, and how does it relate to the situation in Nigeria? Recommendation on market segments 1-2 pages Of the market sub-segments analyzed in Nigeria, which are the most attractive? Which market sub-segments have the most lift potential? Provide a Go/No Go recommendation on each of the sub-segments analyzed. Road Map 1-2 pages How can grants and technical assistance be used most effectively to improve the competitiveness of the Nigerian market segment? Which sub-segments should receive which resources? Which interventions are more critical, in terms of the potential for market lift as well as the current context of the policy environment?