Optimal Quota Allocation in Multispecies Environment

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1 University of Southern Denmark Management and Economics of Resources and the Environment (MERE) Optimal Quota Allocation in Multispecies Environment The Seventeenth International Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade Towards Ecosystem Based Management of Fisheries: What Role can Economics Play July 8, 2014 Barbara Hutniczak

2 Case background 2 The Baltic Sea fishery in Poland Cod (Gadus morhua) 35% revenue Sprat (Sprattus sprattus) 20% revenue Herring (Clupea harengus) 19% revenue 2

3 Case background 3 Multispecies interactions Fishing fleet Harvest mortality (F) Environment (Salinity index) (Vessels) Natural mortality (M) Cod (recruitment) Cod (age >1) Sprat Herring (1 age class) (7 age classes) (8 age classes) (8 age classes) Predation mortality (P)

4 Case background 4 Regulations - Individual Vessel Quotas (IVQ) and entry/exit system Total TAC is distributed between vessels according to: w n redistribution coefficient based on vessel s length Strict entry/exit regulations Length category number of vessels in 2012 w for cod w for herring w for sprat m m m m m m m m

5 Case background 5 Polish TAC and vessels with cod harvest permit TAC cod Harvest cod TAC utilization 86% 99% 89% 77% 68% Harvest sprat Harvest herring m m m m m TOTAL

6 Research question 6 How is the TAC utilized? How the multispecies interactions affect the management?

7 Model structure 7 Individual efficiency D I input oriented distance from the frontier E effort [days at sea] y i harvest of species i {cod, herring, sprat, other species} B i,t harvestable biomass od species i {cod, herring, sprat} k capital as power of main engine [kw] v n,t stochastic error term u n time-invariant, firmspecific inefficiency term Properties: - symetry - homogeneity Simplified version for vessels below 12m

8 Model strcture 8 Asymetry in efficiencies Efficiencies for vessels present in units

9 Model structure 9 Economic incentives Substitution possibilities at the frontier π n,t individual profit of firm n at time t ρ discount rate p i price of species i y i harvest of species i c v variable cost per unit of effort e effort Y vector of harvest u inefficiency term c f fixed costs if π n,t < 0 -> harvest activity not profitable Red surface maximum effort

10 Simulation 10 Two TAC scenarios BAU COD: - Current management plan - target F=0.3, critical F of TAC change +/- 15% PELAGIC SPECIES: - F constant - TAC change +/- 15% Alternative management ALL SPECIES: - Multispecies MSY (ICES 2013) - TAC change +/- 15% Starting values based on 2012 ICES estimates Model scalled to Polish share based on EU TAC shares (~30%)

11 Simulation 11 Two TAC scenarios Incorporating production feasibility and profitability

12 Summary 12 Benefits from alternative management scenario (higher TACs): Conservative TAC plan in some cases may not be the optimum solution given the capacity is regulated and there are strongly established species interactions Better flexibility with respect to harvest choice implies higher pofits Importance of entry/exit regulations Adaptive management adjusting quota annually implies no risk of overexploitation (sensitivity analysis results) that may be a result of faster efficiency increase

13 13 THANK YOU

14 14 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Bioeconomic model

15 Management 15 Cod management Cod Individual Vessel Quotas lower 2007 quotas not enforced 2008 EU punishment Three years plan 2012 whole fleet back to fishing 2009 ~1/3 fleet allowed to fish 2010 ~1/3 fleet allowed to fish 2011 ~1/3 fleet allowed to fish 15

16 Discussion 16 WHY VESSELS MAY HAVE LIMITED INCENTIVES TO EXIT? * Under succesfully carried cod management plan, IVQs are expected to be increasing * The model assumes very conservative technological change 1% [efficiency increase by 1% per year] * Sunk cost in form of investment in vessel * Possibility to introduce ITQs in the future [if grandfathered, potentially valuable asset] * changing prices

17 Simulation 17 SSB under full utilization of TAC Scalled to Polish fleet TAC share (~30%)

18 Biological model 18 Fishing mortality Dividing harvest into age categories and stock in number pref i,a - harvest preference or selectivity for species i at age a H i,t total harvest of species i at time t N i,a,t number of species i at age a and time t Fishing mortality derived from nonlinear relationship: Bioeconomic model

19 Biological model 19 Predation mortality Predation (functional responses according to Heikinheimo (2011) with preferences based on cod stomach content from Tomczak et al. (2012) p i,a,b,t - number of fish of species i at age a eaten by cod population of age b in year t λ i,a,b - relative consumption preference of cod at age b over species i at age a x c,b,t - number of cod at age b at time t C b - maximum consumption of herring and sprat by one cod at age b D sh - half saturation constant n - functional response constant p i,a,t - number of fish of species i at age a eaten by cod population in year t Predation mortality derived from nonlinear relationship: Bioeconomic model

20 Methodology 20 Distance function estimates Coefficients for log-values scaled to average of 1 simplified function for vessels 8-12m [minimum harvest of pelagics] coefficient estimate SE cod herring sprat other capital cod*cod cod*herring cod*sprat cod*other herring*herring herring*sprat herring*other sprat*sprat sprat*other other*other capital*capital cod*capital herring*capital sprat*capital other*capital D D D D _cons

21 Distance function 21 At the frontier Days at sea per tone of cod Harvest of cod t [at average vessel size ~270kW]

22 Distance function 22 At the frontier Days at sea per tone of cod 2.0 Effort requirement as function of vessel s size Capital kw [at average cod harvest ~40t]

23 Distance function 23 At the frontier Variable cost of effort as a function of capital: p e = *k Marginal cost of harvesting 1 t of cod PLN [based on individual vessels reports] Capital kw [at average cod harvest ~40t]

24 Distance function 24 At the frontier MP from cod Red surface marginal profit of zero [at average harvests of herring, sprat, other species and biomass]

25 Results 25 Sensitivity analysis Dashed line indicates minimum SSB defined by ICES (2013)

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