Faheem Jehangir Khan Research Economist Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad

Transcription

1 Achieving MDGs in Pakistan Faheem Jehangir Khan Research Economist Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad Saturday April 28th, 2007

2 Achieving MDGs in Pakistan For attainment of 8 Millennium Goals the UN Millennium Declaration had fixed 18 Targets and 48 Indicators Pakistan has adopted 16 Targets and 37 Indicators Even though for some of the MDGs Pakistan s progress may have been somewhat satisfactory, for most of the indicators performance is not quite adequate One of the reasons for slow progress could be low levels of public sector allocations for the social sectors (e.g. Health, Education, and Water & Sanitation)

3 MDGs Pakistan MDGs Targets Indicators 1 Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger Achieve Universal Primary Education Promote Gender Equality & Women Empowerment Reducing Child Mortality Improving Maternal Health Combating HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other Diseases Ensuring Environmental Sustainability Develop a Global Partnership for Development*

4 Achieving MDGs in Pakistan Education (Goal 2) Target 3 Target 4 Health (Goal 4, 5 and 6) Target 5 Target 6 Target 7 Target 8 Water & Sanitation (Goal 7) Target 9 Target 10 Target 11 {Primary Education} {Eliminate Gender Disparity} {Underfive Mortality, Health and Care} {Maternal Mortality} {HIV/ AIDS} {Malaria, TB and Other Major Diseases} {Environmental Resources} {Improved Water & Adequate Sanitation} {Katchi abadis (Slums)}

5 Financing MDGs (Pakistan) Public Sector Expenditure External Economic Assistance Out of Pocket Expenditure

6 Education

7 Financing Education Total Public Sector Education Expenditure (Federal plus Provincial) Million Rs Development Current Total

8 Financing Education (Contd.) Share in Total Public Sector Education Expenditure Percentage Federal Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan

9 Financing Education (Contd.) Percentage Public Sector Expenditure on Education as % GDP Total Expenditure Development Expenditure

10 Financing Education (Contd.) External Economic Assistance in Education Sector (Million US$) USAID, WFP, 2.89 UNFPA, 0.02 UK, 0.30 OPEC Fund, 1.35 ADB, 5.26 Norw ay, 1.47 Canada, 0.29 Japan, 1.13 IDA, 0.30 Germany, 0.37 EU, 8.18 Total External Economic Assistance in Education = Million US$ (200405)

11 Out of Pocket Expenditure (Education) Out of Pocket Expenditure (Education) OPE Education Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Pakistan Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Monthly Rs/ HH

12 Health

13 Financing Health Total Public Sector Health Expenditure (Federal plus Provincial) Million Rs Development Current Total

14 Financing Health (Contd.) Share in Total Public Sector Health Expenditure Percentage Federal Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan

15 Financing Health (Contd.) Public Sector Expenditure on Health as % GDP Percentage Total Expenditure Development Expenditure

16 Financing Health (Contd.) External Economic Assistance in Health Sector (Million US$) Japan, 9.00 UK, UNDP, 0.01 IDA, Germany, 0.54 USAID, Canada, 1.22 ADB, 9.20 WFP, 0.87 Total External Economic Assistance in Health = Million US$ (200405)

17 Out of Pocket Expenditure (Health) Out of Pocket Expenditure (Health) OPE Health Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Pakistan Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Monthly Rs/ HH

18 Water & Sanitation

19 Financing WatSan Total Public Sector WatSan Expenditure (Federal plus Provincial) Million Rs Current Development Total

20 Financing WatSan (Contd.) Share in Public Sector WatSan Expenditure Percentage Federal Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan

21 Financing WatSan (Contd.) Public Sector Expenditure on WatSan as % GDP Percentage Total Expenditure Development Expenditure

22 Financing WatSan (Contd.) External Economic Assistance in WatSan (Million US$) UK, 1.79 ADB, Japan, IDB, 0.53 France, 3.76 Total External Economic Assistance in WatSan = Million US$ (200405)

23 Out of Pocket Expenditure (WatSan ( WatSan) OPE WatSan Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Pakistan Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Monthly Rs/ HH

24 MDGs Status (Pakistan) Education Health WATSAN

25 MDG Status (Education) Primary Education Trend and Targets Percentage / / /05 MTDF Target 2009/10 MDGs Targets 2015 NER Primary (%) Primary Completion Rate

26 MDG Status (Child Care) Mortality Rate (under five Years) No. of deaths per thousand live births / / /05 MTDF Target 2009/ MDGs Targets 2015

27 MDG Status (Child Care) Infant Mortality Rate (under 1 Year) No. of deaths per thousand live births / / /05 MTDF Target 2009/ MDGs Targets 2015

28 MDG Status (Child Care) Fully Immunised Children (1223 months) Proportion / / /05 MTDF Target 2009/10 MDGs Targets 2015

29 MDG Status (Maternal Care) Maternal Mortality Ratio No. of Mothers dying due to complications of Pregnancy per 100,000 live births / / /05 MTDF Target 2009/ MDGs Targets 2015

30 MDG Status (Maternal Care) Births attended by Skilled Birth Attendants Proportion / / /05 MTDF Target 2009/10 MDGs Targets 2015

31 MDG Status (Maternal Care) MDG Status (Maternal Care) Contraceptive Prevalence Rate / / /05 MTDF Target 2009/10 55 MDGs Targets 2015 Proportion of eligible couples for family planning, using one of the contraceptive methods

32 MDG Status (Maternal Care) Total Fertility Rate Avg No. of children a woman delivered (age 1549) / / /05 MTDF Target 2009/ MDGs Targets 2015

33 MDG Status (Maternal Care) MDG Status (Maternal Care) Antenatal Care / / /05 MTDF Target 2009/ MDGs Targets 2015 Proportion of women (1549) who delivered during last 3 years and received at least one antenatal consultation

34 MDG Status (Water) Access to Improved Water Source Percentage / / /05 MTDF Target 2009/10 MDGs Targets 2015

35 MDG Status (Sanitation) Access to Sanitation Percentage / / /05 MTDF Target 2009/10 MDGs Targets 2015

36 Will MDG targets be reached? Probably Potentially Unlikely No Data 1 Achieve Universal Primary Education X 2 Mortality Rate (under 5 Years) X 3 Infant Mortality Rate (under 1 Year) X 4 Fully Immunized Children (1223 months) X 5 Maternal Mortality Ratio X 6 Birth attended by Skilled Birth Attendants X 7 Contraceptive Prevalence Rate X 8 Total Fertility Rate X 9 Antenatal Care X 10 Access to Improved Water Source X (1) X (2) 11 Access to Sanitation Facilities X (1) X (2)

37 State of Supportive Environment Strong Fair Weak but Improving Weak 1 Achieve Universal Primary Education X 2 Mortality Rate (under 5 Years) X 3 Infant Mortality Rate (under 1 Year) X 4 Fully Immunized Children (1223 m) X 5 Maternal Mortality Ratio X 6 Birth attended by Skilled Birth Attendants X 7 Contraceptive Prevalence Rate X 8 Total Fertility Rate X 9 Antenatal Care X 10 Access to Improved Water Source X (1) X (2) 11 Access to Sanitation Facilities X (1) X (2)

38 The problem of development must be defined as a selective attack on the worst forms of poverty. Development goals must be defined in terms of progressive reduction and eventually elimination of malnutrition, disease, illiteracy, unemployment and inequalities. We were taught to take care of our GNP because it would take care of poverty. Let us reverse this and take care of poverty because it will take care of the GNP. In other words, let us worry about the content of the GNP even more than its rate of increase. (Dr MahbubulHaq, former Commerce Minister and Deputy Chairman Planning Commission, writing in 1971 for Pakistan Economic and Social Review) Source: Time for trickle up by Hussain H. Zaidi (The News, April 22, 2007)

39 Thank You