QAD Enterprise Applications 2012 Enterprise Edition. Training Guide Demand Management 6.1 Domain Knowledge

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1 QAD Enterprise Applications 2012 Enterprise Edition Training Guide Demand Management 6.1 Domain Knowledge QAD Enterprise Applications 2012 February 2012

2 This document contains proprietary information that is protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. No part of this document may be reproduced, translated, or modified without the prior written consent of QAD Inc. The information contained in this document is subject to change without notice. QAD Inc. provides this material as is and makes no warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. QAD Inc. shall not be liable for errors contained herein or for incidental or consequential damages (including lost profits) in connection with the furnishing, performance, or use of this material whether based on warranty, contract, or other legal theory. QAD and MFG/PRO are registered trademarks of QAD Inc. The QAD logo is a trademark of QAD Inc. Designations used by other companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. In this document, the product names appear in initial capital or all capital letters. Contact the appropriate companies for more information regarding trademarks and registration. Copyright 2012 by QAD Inc. DemandManagementDomainKnowledge_TG_v6.1/m3w/mdf QAD Inc. 100 Innovation Place Santa Barbara, California Phone (805)

3 Content Change Summary vii Course Description Course Objectives Audience Prerequisites Course Credit and Scheduling System Requirements Virtual Environment Information QAD Resources Product Help QAD Web Resources Chapter 1 QAD Value Chain Certification Types of Demand Two Types of Demand Independent Demand Dependent Demand Knowledge Check Basics of Demand Management Demand Management Defined Sources of Demand Companies That Do Not Manage Demand: Out of Stock at Retail If A Manufacturer Generates $10bn In Revenue* Out of Stock Rates Double on Promoted Items When Consumers Encounter An Out-Of-Stock Participants in the Demand Planning Process Statistical Forecast Sales Input Marketing Input Customer Input New Product Development Knowledge Check Basics of Forecasting What is a Forecast?

4 ii Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Forecasting Techniques Sales History Patterns Forecasting Horizons What Should We Forecast? Why Forecast? General Forecasting Methods Forecast Methods - Intrinsic Internal (Intrinsic) Factors Product Life Cycle Forecast Methods - Extrinsic Leading Indicators Extrinsic Factors Affecting A Forecast One Problem - The Forecast is WRONG! Forecasts Become Less Accurate With Time Forecasts Are More Accurate When Aggregated Involving Customers Improves Forecasts Knowledge Check Chapter 2 Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing...61 Definition of Forecasting Forecasting Techniques Forecasting Horizons Sales History Patterns Principles of Forecasting Forecasts Should Include An Estimate of Error Forecasts Are More Accurate When Aggregated Data Collection and Preparation Common Time Series Techniques Naïve Forecasting Variations of Naïve Forecasting Moving Average Forecasting Month Moving Average Month Moving Average What is the Impact of Different Averaging Periods? Longer Periods = Less Impact of Random Event Weighted Moving Average Examples of Weighted Moving Average Forecasting Seasonal Products How to Forecast a Seasonal Product Why 3 Years of History? Deseasonalizing Demand Obtain 3 Years of History Determine Monthly Sales Average

5 Contents iii Calculate The Seasonal Indexes Determine Annual Forecast & Monthly Deseasonalized Average Apply Seasonal Index Knowledge Check Single Exponential Smoothing Smoothing Factor Exponential Smoothing Examples Comparison of Exponential Smoothing Alpha Factors Double Exponential Smoothing Triple Exponential Smoothing Knowledge Check Chapter 3 Forecast Errors & Safety Stock Agenda Measuring Forecast Accuracy Period Forecast Error Absolute Percentage Of Error (APE) Forecast Accuracy Why Is The Measure of Error Important? Safety Stock Variability Safety Stock Normal Distribution (Bell-Shaped Curve) Height of US Males 1 MAD = Basic MAD Safety Stock Formula Mean Absolute Deviation Calculation How Much Safety Stock? First Calculate MAD: Next Calculate Safety Stock Table of Safety Factors (Using MAD) Absolute Forecast Error = 12 Mad = How Much Safety Stock? First Calculate MAD: Does MAD of 2 Vs. 4 Matter? Impact of Forecast Accuracy on Safety Stock - $2,500 Item Calculating Standard Deviation Calculating Standard Deviation Calculating MAPE Calculating Mean Absolute Percentage Error Calculating RMSE RSME Example Improving Forecast Accuracy

6 iv Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Chapter 4 History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect Chapter 5 Supply Chain Evolution Control Led to Cooperation In Vertically Integrated Organizations Communication Between Adversaries Traditional Adversarial Relationships Lessons From Japan Communication Between Partners An Industry Supply Chain Without Collaboration An Industry Supply Chain with Collaboration Knowledge Check The Bullwhip Effect Problems With Supply Chain Coordination The Bullwhip Effect Breaking the Bullwhip Effect The Keys to Collaboration Knowledge Check Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment163 9 Step CPFR? Process A Few CPFR? Users Why CPFR? CPFR? Manufacturer & Retailer Tasks Step 1: Collaboration Arrangement Step 2: Create Joint Business Plan Step 3: Create Sales Forecast Step 4: Identifying Exceptions Step 5: Resolving Exceptions Step 6: Create Order Forecast Step 7: Identify Exceptions to Order Forecast Step 8: Resolve Exceptions to Order Forecast Step 9: Generate Replenishment Order Value Added by CPFR Knowledge Check Chapter 6 Sales & Operations Planning What Is Sales & Operations Planning? Conflicts of Inventory Management Bring Supply & Demand Into Balance The Monthly S&OP Process Key Elements of S&OP Process Run Sales Forecast Reports Demand Planning Process

7 Contents v Sales A Bit Soft Document Causes & Corrective Actions st Pass Spreadsheet Developed Supply Planning Process Production Getting Further Behind Document Causes & Corrective Actions Operations Produces 2nd Pass Spreadsheet Pre-S&OP Meeting Executive Review Executive Decision & Approval Challenges in Implementing S&OP Knowledge Check Questions or Comments?

8 vi Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

9 Change Summary The following table summarizes significant differences between this document and the last published version. Date/Version Description Reference February 2012 Demand Management 6.1 Domain Knowledge TG Initial Publication

10 viii Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

11 About This Course

12 2 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Course Description QAD designed this course to cover the basics of preparing to set up and use the QAD Demand Management (DM) program. The course includes hands-on activities and exercises that allow students to practice key concepts and processes in DM. Course Objectives By the end of this class, students will: Understand the importance of Demand Management in a business enterprise Recognize the impact of forecast errors on inventory levels and customer service Analyze some key business decisions before setting up DM Determine business requirements for setting up and using DM Understand the relationships of components in the DM program & Planning Portal Set up DM to best match the business rules of an organization Audience DM technical support Appropriate business managers Implementation consultants and members of implementation teams Key end users Prerequisites Demand Management User Learning Path Practical Guide to Business Forecasting (available April 15, 2012) Course Credit and Scheduling QAD designed this course to take 32 hours. System Requirements This course uses the QAD Enterprise Applications Enterprise Edition database. See the title page for the exact database title. Whether you are studying this material in a classroom or as a self-study exercise, this is launched in a virtual environment management system. QAD instructors will prepare classroom environments. If you encounter questions or problems on QAD software that are not addressed in this book, several resources are available. Virtual Environment Information Enterprise Edition 2011 Add-Ons r02, 10USACO

13 3 QAD Resources If you encounter questions or problems on QAD software that are not addressed in this book, several resources are available. Product Help All QAD products ship with integrated help systems. A properly installed QAD application will display help when you press the Help key (F1), or access it through the menu. The help covers the normal use of the product. QAD Web Resources The QAD website provides product and company overviews. The Print Solution option on the opening page provides a means of compiling desired content into a document specialized to your industry, business implementation, and needs. From QAD s main site, you can access QAD s Learning or Support sites. QAD Learning Portal for Training Opportunities To view available training courses, locations, and materials, use the QAD Learning Portal. Choose Learning under the Global Services tab to access this resource. QAD Support for Product Documentation and the QAD Knowledgebase To access release notes, user guides, installation and conversion guides by product and release, visit the Support website. Support also offers an array of tools depending on your company s maintenance agreement with QAD. These include the Knowledgebase and direct links to QAD Support experts. Choose Support under the Global Services tab. Any QAD customer can register for a QAD web account by accessing the Support web site and clicking the Accounts link at the top of the screen. Your customer ID number is required. Access to certain areas is dependent on the type of agreement you have with QAD.

14 4 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

15 Chapter 1 QAD Value Chain Certification

16 6 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Types of Demand

17 Two Types of Demand QAD Value Chain Certification 7

18 8 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Independent Demand

19 Dependent Demand QAD Value Chain Certification 9

20 10 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Knowledge Check

21 QAD Value Chain Certification 11

22 12 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

23 QAD Value Chain Certification 13

24 14 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Basics of Demand Management

25 Demand Management Defined QAD Value Chain Certification 15

26 16 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Sources of Demand

27 Companies That Do Not Manage Demand: QAD Value Chain Certification 17

28 18 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Out of Stock at Retail

29 If A Manufacturer Generates $10bn In Revenue* QAD Value Chain Certification 19

30 20 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Out of Stock Rates Double on Promoted Items

31 When Consumers Encounter An Out-Of-Stock QAD Value Chain Certification 21

32 22 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Participants in the Demand Planning Process

33 Statistical Forecast QAD Value Chain Certification 23

34 24 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Sales Input They are closest to the customers, and can detect trends, competitors challenges

35 QAD Value Chain Certification 25 Marketing Input Promotions, market research, life cycle management

36 26 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Customer Input Many customers will share their data with you, either directly or through programs like VMI

37 QAD Value Chain Certification 27 New Product Development New products are a major wild card, hard to forecast but incredibly important to the company.

38 28 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Knowledge Check

39 QAD Value Chain Certification 29

40 30 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

41 QAD Value Chain Certification 31

42 32 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

43 QAD Value Chain Certification 33

44 34 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Basics of Forecasting

45 What is a Forecast? QAD Value Chain Certification 35

46 36 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Forecasting Techniques

47 Sales History Patterns QAD Value Chain Certification 37

48 38 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Forecasting Horizons

49 What Should We Forecast? QAD Value Chain Certification 39

50 40 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Why Forecast?

51 General Forecasting Methods QAD Value Chain Certification 41

52 42 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Forecast Methods - Intrinsic

53 Internal (Intrinsic) Factors QAD Value Chain Certification 43

54 44 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Product Life Cycle

55 Forecast Methods - Extrinsic QAD Value Chain Certification 45

56 46 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Leading Indicators

57 Extrinsic Factors Affecting A Forecast QAD Value Chain Certification 47

58 48 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge One Problem - The Forecast is WRONG!

59 Forecasts Become Less Accurate With Time QAD Value Chain Certification 49

60 50 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Forecasts Are More Accurate When Aggregated

61 Involving Customers Improves Forecasts QAD Value Chain Certification 51

62 52 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Knowledge Check

63 QAD Value Chain Certification 53

64 54 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

65 QAD Value Chain Certification 55

66 56 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

67 QAD Value Chain Certification 57

68 58 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

69 QAD Value Chain Certification 59

70 60 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

71 Chapter 2 Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing

72 62 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Definition of Forecasting

73 Forecasting Techniques Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 63

74 64 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Forecasting Horizons

75 Sales History Patterns Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 65

76 66 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Principles of Forecasting

77 Forecasts Should Include An Estimate of Error Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 67

78 68 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Forecasts Are More Accurate When Aggregated

79 Data Collection and Preparation Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 69

80 70 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Common Time Series Techniques

81 Naïve Forecasting Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 71

82 72 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Variations of Naïve Forecasting

83 Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 73

84 74 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

85 Moving Average Forecasting Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 75

86 76 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge 3 Month Moving Average

87 5 Month Moving Average Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 77

88 78 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge What is the Impact of Different Averaging Periods?

89 Longer Periods = Less Impact of Random Event Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 79

90 80 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Weighted Moving Average

91 Examples of Weighted Moving Average Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 81

92 82 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Forecasting Seasonal Products

93 How to Forecast a Seasonal Product Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 83

94 84 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Why 3 Years of History?

95 Deseasonalizing Demand Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 85

96 86 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Obtain 3 Years of History

97 Determine Monthly Sales Average Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 87

98 88 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Calculate The Seasonal Indexes

99 Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 89 Determine Annual Forecast & Monthly Deseasonalized Average

100 90 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Apply Seasonal Index

101 Knowledge Check Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 91

102 92 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

103 Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 93

104 94 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

105 Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 95

106 96 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Single Exponential Smoothing

107 Smoothing Factor Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 97

108 98 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Exponential Smoothing Examples

109 Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 99

110 100 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Comparison of Exponential Smoothing Alpha Factors

111 Double Exponential Smoothing Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 101

112 102 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Triple Exponential Smoothing

113 Knowledge Check Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 103

114 104 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

115 Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 105

116 106 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

117 Time Series Forecasting & Exponential Smoothing 107

118 108 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

119 Chapter 3 Forecast Errors & Safety Stock

120 110 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Agenda

121 Measuring Forecast Accuracy Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 111

122 112 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Period Forecast Error

123 Absolute Percentage Of Error (APE) Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 113

124 114 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Forecast Accuracy

125 Why Is The Measure of Error Important? Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 115

126 116 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Safety Stock Variability

127 Safety Stock Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 117

128 118 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Normal Distribution (Bell-Shaped Curve)

129 Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 119

130 120 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Height of US Males 1 MAD = 2

131 Basic MAD Safety Stock Formula Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 121

132 122 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Mean Absolute Deviation Calculation

133 How Much Safety Stock? Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 123

134 124 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge First Calculate MAD:

135 Next Calculate Safety Stock Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 125

136 126 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Table of Safety Factors (Using MAD)

137 Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 127 Absolute Forecast Error = 12 Mad = 2 For an item that costs $85,000, the difference can be significant.

138 128 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge How Much Safety Stock?

139 Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 129

140 130 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge First Calculate MAD:

141 Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 131 Does MAD of 2 Vs. 4 Matter? For an item that costs $85,000, the difference can be significant.

142 132 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Impact of Forecast Accuracy on Safety Stock - $2,500 Item

143 Calculating Standard Deviation Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 133

144 134 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Calculating Standard Deviation Calculating Standard Deviation: Subtract Forecast (A) from Actual (B) to get Error (C) Square (D) the Error (C) Total the Errors Squared (Totals for Column D) = 15,125 Divide the Totals for Errors Squared by the number of occurrences minus one (12-1=11) = 15,125/11 = 1,375 Standard Deviation is Square Root of #4 ( v1,375) = 37 Standard deviation is approximately 1.25 X MAD

145 Calculating MAPE Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 135

146 136 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Calculating Mean Absolute Percentage Error Calculating MAPE: 1 Subtract Forecast (A) from Actual (B) to get Error (C). 2 Determine Absolute Value of Error (D). 3 Determine Absolute Percentage Error (Absolute Error / Actual) X 100%. 4 Total Absolute Percentage Error (APE) for all periods (Absolute Error / Actual) X 100%. 5 Total APE and divide by number of periods. The Lower the MAPE the Better

147 Calculating RMSE Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 137

148 138 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge RSME Example Calculating RMSE: 1 Subtract Forecast (A) from Actual (B) to get Error (C). 2 Square the Error (D). 3 Total the Squared Errors. 4 Divide the Total Squared Errors by the number of occurrences. 5 Obtain the Square Root of the Total Squared Errors / by the # of occurrences. The Lower the RMSE the Better

149 Improving Forecast Accuracy Forecast Errors & Safety Stock 139

150 140 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

151 Chapter 4 History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect

152 142 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Supply Chain Evolution Vertical integration was rule for large manufacturing companies. In the early 20th century, Henry Ford owned: Iron ore mines in Northern Michigan Ocean-going vessels to bring the ore to his factories around Detroit Factories capable of making all parts of the car except tires Dealers to sell the cars This changed as companies began to focus on their core competencies, selecting the niche that they were strongest.

153 History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect 143 Control Led to Cooperation In Vertically Integrated Organizations Ensuring cooperation between departments was one of the functions of top management. They could force different departments to cooperate, or face severe consequences.

154 144 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Communication Between Adversaries When it came to relationships between customers and suppliers, the only point of contact was between the customer s purchasing department and the supplier s salespeople. Unfortunately, most salespeople thought buyers were constantly bluffing to get a better deal, and most buyers thought salespeople had never become acquainted with the truth. Adversarial relationships between customers and suppliers were the rule. Funneling all communication through the Purchasing & Sales departments meant that problems about Quality, Marketing, MIS or other functional areas had to be communicated by a buyer or sales person that may have had little understanding of the real key issues.

155 Traditional Adversarial Relationships History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect 145

156 146 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Lessons From Japan Keiretsu includes cross-ownership of companies, including customer & suppliers.

157 History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect 147 Communication Between Partners Taking to heart the lessons from Japan, companies began to open up communication channels and create partnerships. As companies focused on their niche, they could no longer treat their customers & suppliers as the enemy. Although the principal point of contact remained Purchasing and Sales, in a collaborative relationship they began to work together as partners. In addition, other functional units were now able to contact their counterparts at the other company. Because they spoke the same language and terminology, they could solve problems faster.

158 148 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge An Industry Supply Chain Without Collaboration The lack of trust and coordination between customers and suppliers in the supply chain led to poor delivery and substandard quality. Companies at each step of the supply chain would keep high levels of Safety Stocks of incoming materials to protect against poor supply delivery and quality, plus high levels of finished goods to protect against unexpected customer demand.

159 History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect 149 An Industry Supply Chain with Collaboration By sharing information and improving quality, companies were able to dramatically reduce Safety Stocks of both incoming and outgoing materials.

160 150 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Knowledge Check

161 History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect 151

162 152 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

163 History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect 153

164 154 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge The Bullwhip Effect Proctor & Gamble (P&G) went to Wal-Mart and asked Since babies go to the bathroom on a fairly regular basis, why do your orders fluctuate so much? Their joint study led to the discovery of The Bullwhip Effect.

165 History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect 155 Problems With Supply Chain Coordination Demand Forecasting Inherently inaccurate, the further removed from the end user the forecasting company is, the more they are incorporating the forecast errors of their customers, their customer s customers... Order Batching To gain economies of scale in transportation and order processing, companies often batch orders in weekly or monthly orders. This is seen as actual demand by their suppliers. Product Rationing During times of shortage, manufacturers will often ration the amount of product they will apply against a customer's order. In order to beat the system, customers will increase the size of their orders. Product Pricing Companies that engage in frequent promotional pricing incentives will drive extra sales during the promotion, normally followed by a period of below normal sales.

166 156 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Performance Incentives Many companies have monthly or quarterly performance bonuses for their sales force. This encourages salespeople to offer their customers deals if they near the end of their bonus qualification period short of their sales target. Conversely, many buyers are incented based on obtaining purchase discounts. This encourages the purchasing of large quantities.

167 History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect 157 The Bullwhip Effect The further away we get from the end user, the wider the swings in orders.

168 158 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Breaking the Bullwhip Effect

169 History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect 159 The Keys to Collaboration Communication Must be open between supply chain partners. Confidentiality Suppliers that are on the receiving end of information from a customer often sell to the customers competitors. Keeping information from one customer from all other customers is critical. Confidence When suppliers agree to share the information and need to be confident that the supplier will use it and respond to changing order patterns rapidly.

170 160 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Knowledge Check

171 History of Collaboration & the Bullwhip Effect 161

172 162 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

173 Chapter 5 Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment

174 164 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge 9 Step CPFR? Process

175 A Few CPFR? Users Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment 165

176 166 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Why CPFR? CPFR should lead to: Increased sales, via improved in-stock performance Reduced supply chain costs, i.e., production, storage, transportation, and handling through improved information flow Reduced safety stock inventory for the entire supply chain Improved relationships between key trading partners Improved technology Return on Investment (ROI)

177 Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment 167 CPFR? Manufacturer & Retailer Tasks Review Retailer Tasks Review Manufacturer Tasks Review Collaboration Tasks

178 168 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Step 1: Collaboration Arrangement Goals & Objectives Decide whether agreement will be all encompassing or for certain product categories only. Determine alignment of the two parties goals exclusivity, market share. Agree about changes that will cause for agreement to be reopened. Confidentiality Suppliers that enter into CPFR agreements also sell to competitors. Designate individuals to access customer information on a need to know basis. Spell out consequences of violation. Information Sharing Determine information to be shared and agree on frequency and format. Resources Identify management & information technology (IT) resources needed. Determine which of the parties will take the lead in this area. Establish pilot project scope and determine realistic timetable for resource deployment. Responsibilities Agree on partner responsibilities, including which individuals will take the lead? Who will be the backups during vacations? Who will handle logistics, set up meetings, etc.? Expectations Lay out expectations of each party. What will constitute success? What is the timetable for judgment? How will performance be communicated? Resolutions Who has the authority to resolve problems? At what point will problems be escalated? To whom?

179 Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment 169 Step 2: Create Joint Business Plan Corporate & Partnership Strategies Both companies must agree on how to go forward strategically. Category Roles & Objectives Companies must agree on market share goals. growth and profit goals and promotional strategies. Where differences exist, they must be resolved. Item Management Determine capacity/order limits, both for standard orders and promotions. Operations groups at each party should take part to hammer out day-to-day detail regarding order minimums, multiples, and lead times. Promotion Notification How much advance notice is required? What options exist if capacity doesn t exist? Exception Criteria What will trigger a review? Metrics - Must lead to a common definition of success.

180 170 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Step 3: Create Sales Forecast

181 Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment 171 Step 4: Identifying Exceptions Two sales forecasts reviewed against exception criteria If sales forecasts of two parties are within exception criteria guidelines established by Joint Business Plan, differences handled automatically by predetermined agreement If sales forecasts violate exception criteria guidelines, differences presented to individual buyer and forecaster to resolve during forecasting conference call

182 172 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Step 5: Resolving Exceptions Many companies stop with Step 5.

183 Step 6: Create Order Forecast Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment 173

184 174 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Step 7: Identify Exceptions to Order Forecast

185 Step 8: Resolve Exceptions to Order Forecast Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment 175

186 176 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Step 9: Generate Replenishment Order

187 Value Added by CPFR Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment 177

188 178 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Knowledge Check

189 Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment 179

190 180 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

191 Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment 181

192 182 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

193 Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment 183

194 184 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

195 Chapter 6 Sales & Operations Planning

196 186 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge What Is Sales & Operations Planning?

197 Conflicts of Inventory Management Sales & Operations Planning 187

198 188 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Bring Supply & Demand Into Balance

199 The Monthly S&OP Process Sales & Operations Planning 189

200 190 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Key Elements of S&OP Process

201 Run Sales Forecast Reports Sales & Operations Planning 191

202 192 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Demand Planning Process

203 Sales A Bit Soft Sales & Operations Planning 193

204 194 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Document Causes & Corrective Actions

205 1st Pass Spreadsheet Developed Sales & Operations Planning 195

206 196 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Supply Planning Process

207 Production Getting Further Behind Sales & Operations Planning 197

208 198 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Document Causes & Corrective Actions

209 Operations Produces 2nd Pass Spreadsheet Sales & Operations Planning 199

210 200 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Pre-S&OP Meeting

211 Sales & Operations Planning 201

212 202 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Executive Review

213 Executive Decision & Approval Sales & Operations Planning 203

214 204 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge Challenges in Implementing S&OP

215 Knowledge Check Sales & Operations Planning 205

216 206 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

217 Questions or Comments? Sales & Operations Planning 207

218 208 Training Guide Demand Management Domain Knowledge

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