The Norwegian Commercial Property Market

Transcription

1 The Norwegian Commercial Property Market Presentation for Technopolis November 5, 2013

2 Agenda Introduction to Akershus Eiendom The Norwegian economy Oslo leasing market The investment market

3 Akershus Eiendom AS Akershus Eiendom AS is an independent property advisor focusing on all types of commercial property: - offices - logistics/warehouse facilities - shops/shopping centres -hotels - land plots Akershus Eiendom has advised its clients on sales, leasing, development, research, valuations and other areas of the commercial property business since Akershus Eiendom has during the past five years handled sales transactions for properties of a total value of 30 billion NOK, and has handled leasing of 845,000 m 2 of office space. 3 3

4 Akershus Eiendom: Business areas & market shares Managing Director Per Kumle Marketing Backoffice Leasing Capital Markets Research & Valuation Ole Christian Iversen Head of Leasing Leasing agent, primarily for landlords. Mainly office and logistics in and around Oslo Market share Petter Nylend Head of Capital Markets Sales agents, primarily for property owners and construction companies. Mainly office in Oslo, but also logistics, retail, and hotels around Norway. Market share Ragnar Eggen Head of Research Erik Andre Bratt Head of Valuation Valuation of all llkinds of commercial property for funds, property companies and others. Both regular and ad-hoc valuation projects. Advisory and research for the property market in general. Market share

5 Akershus Eiendom: Market leader Akershus Eiendom - Market leader in all segments Key figures Akershus Eiendom AS 12 Akershus Eiendom: Value of properties sold per year, bnok Leasing Transactions Research/ Valuation ,5 7,0 10,0 8,5 7,0 7,7 7,1 e, billion NOK ,6 2,3 3,5 2,0 3, Property valu Akershus Eiendom: Leasing volume per year, m Turnover in MNOK, m 2 per year ndom DNB Næringsmegling DTZ Realkapital Eiendomsmegling Unionn Norsk Næringsmegling Newsec nance Pangea Property Advisors CBRE Colliers Hadrian Eiendom Akershus Eie Catella Corporate Fi 5

6 International partner Jones Lang LaSalle o Akershus Eiendom has had a formal cooperation agreement with Jones Lang LaSalle for 11 years o The cooperation includes transactions, services for key clients, and research Jones Lang LaSalle Europe and Middle East o o o o o 4,200 people in 57 corporate offices across 24 countries 600 directly reimbursable client site staff Market leading capital markets business with 115 billion of transactions since 2005 Largest 3rd party property management agent with 25.9 million m² under management Supported by the Industry s leading research capability with over 90 research professionals in the region 6 6

7 Transactions carried out by Akershus Eiendom Avantor/Industrifinansporteføljen MNOK Pilestredet MNOK Pilestredet Park 7450 MNOK Sørkedalsveien MNOK Pilestredet MNOK Middelthunsgate MNOK Akerselva Atrium 587 MNOK Essendropsgate 3 Sjølyst Arken 974 MNOK Ibsen kvartalet 1,220 MNOK Oslo Plaza Hotell MNOK Schweigaards gate MNOK Brynsalleen 4 270MNOK Lysaker torg MNOK Karl Johans gate 12 / Kirkegata MNOK Brynsalleen MNOK Haakon VII s gt 5, 500 MNOK Strømsveien MNOK Strandveien MNOK Kjørbo-anlegget 550 MNOK Fondbygget 620 MNOK Tjuvholmen Allé MNOK Bjørvika felt B11b (Visma) 920 MNOK K2 Fornebu 945 MNOK Biskop Gunnerus gt.14 (høyblokka), 580 MNOK Bjørvika felt B10a (PwC) 570 MNOK Statoil Regional HQ MNOK Steen & Strøm + Karl Johans gate 16c MNOK KLP-bygget, Felt B10b, Bjørvika 1200 MNOK Biskop Gunnerus gt.14 (lavblokka) 760 MNOK 7

8 Agenda Introduction to Akershus Eiendom The Norwegian economy Oslo leasing market The investment market

9 Norwegian economy makes moderate headway 8 Annual GDP, mainland Norway and European union with forecast year- -on-year volum me change, European Union (27 countries) GDP Mainland Norway Source: Statistics Norway Status: o o Growth primarily stimulated by domestic demand, and large investments t in the petroleum sector in particular Traditional Norwegian exports expected to pick up from 2015 Deviation analysis GDP Norway (M) Estimate Feb 12 2,7 2,8 3,4 3,4 Jun 12 3,2 2,8 3,4 3,4 Sep 12 3,6 3,1 3,2 3,4 Des 12 3,3 2,9 3,5 3,4 Feb 13 3,5 2,6 3,1 2,8 2,8 9 Siste tall offentliggjort: December 2012

10 Employers expectations of future employment 60 Business leaders expected change in employment in 1 year 50 Percen ntage of respo ondents Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 More employees Fewer employees No change Status Survey includes answers from over 500 business leaders Source: Norges Bank/TNS Gallup/Perduco 10

11 Employment forecasts have weakened during 2013 nds Emplo oyees, thousa ,9 800 Change in total employment, Norway, E -1,0 0,7-0,3 1,9 2,0 17 1,7 4,1 2,9 2,7 3,5 3,3 2,2 0,9 0,6 0,3 0,4 0,5 1,3 1,3 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,0-1,2-0,4-0, Change, National employment change Employment change, average of SSB and DNB forecast Total employed Norway, thousands Total employed, average of SSB and DNB forecast Source: Statistics Norway and DNB Markets 11

12 Unemployment Unemployment (Seasonally adjusted figures) Monthly chage Unemployed (2 000) (4 000) (6 000) jan. 02 jan. 03 jan. 04 jan. 05 jan. 06 jan. 07 jan. 08 jan. 09 jan. 10 jan. 11 jan. 12 jan. 13 Source:NAV

13 Long interest rates at all time low 8,0 7,5 7,0 65 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 45 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 25 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 Jan 2003 Jul 2003 Jan 2004 Jul 2004 Jan 2005 Jul 2005 Jan 2006 Jul 2006 Jan 2007 Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jul Source: DnBNOR / Central Bank of Norway Jan 201 Jul 201 Jan 201 Jul 201 Jan 201 Jul 201 Jan 201 Jul 201 Norges Bank, Sight dep. rate NIBOR 3 months SWAP 10 years 10 year Gov. Bond Status: The key policy rate was kept unchanged on the last policy meeting

14 Construction order backlogs 275 Order backlog, new buildings nationwide, ; Quarterly index, 2005=100 - deflated by the total production cost index Value index for backlog National index, all new and existing 75 buildings incl rehab projects New residential buildings 50 Other new buildings (mainly commercial) K1 2005K1 2006K1 2007K1 2008K1 2009K1 2010K1 2011K1 2012K1 2013K1 o o From Q the order backlog for new buildings have been growing A decline is expected from 2H 2013 due to a decline in new home sales Source: Statistics Norway

15 Construction costs for commercial property Costs per m² Estimated construction cost E Average turnkey cost for standard new Oslo office space, ex VAT jan.0 05 jul.0 05 jan.0 06 jul.0 06 jan.0 07 jul.0 07 Observed construction cost Estimated future construction cost jan.0 08 jul.0 08 jan.0 09 jul jan. 10 jul. 11 jan. 11 jul. 12 jan. 12 jul. 13 jan. 13 jul. Forecast: 10 decline until June jan. 14 jul. Source: Akershus Eiendom

16 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0-20,0-40,0-60,0-80,0-100,0 The Central Bank of Norway s lending survey Non-financial corporate demand for lending 20,0 0,0-20,0-40,0-60,0 0 Banks' lending to commercial real estate 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0-10,0-20,0-30,0-40,0 0-50,0 Banks 'l lending practices (total) t, 2007:4 2008:1 2008:2 2008:3 2008:4 2009:1 2009:2 2009:3 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2 2011:3 2011:4 2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 Actual Expected -80,0-100,0-60,0-70,0 2007:4 2008:1 2008:2 2008:3 2008:4 2009:1 2009:2 2009:3 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2 2011:3 2011:4 2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2007:4 2008:1 2008:2 2008:3 2008:4 2009:1 2009:2 2009:3 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2 2011:3 2011:4 2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 Actual Expected Actual Expected 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0-20,0-40,0-60,0 Q3 11 update: Lending margins Equity requirements 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 00 0,0 Commisions/ Fees 2007:4 2008:1 2008:2 2008:3 2008:4 2009:1 2009:2 2009:3 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2 2011:3 2011:4 2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 Actual Expected 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0-10,0 2007:4 2008:1 2008:2 2008:3 2008:4 2009:1 2009:2 2009:3 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2 2011:3 2011:4 2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 Actual Expected -20,0-40,0 2007:4 2008:1 2008:2 2008:3 2008:4 2009:1 2009:2 2009:3 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2 2011:3 2011:4 2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 Actual Expected Demand for credit is still increasing among corporations Banks credit standards are more tightened increasing margins Increasing commissions/fee s Lending to the commercial property sector is more tightened Explanation of the survey: Banks participating in the survey answer using a scale from 1 to 5, Large changes get twice the weight as small changes shorter maximum loan maturities Answers are weighted with respect to the participant s share of the household and business lending market Net numbers appear on a scale from -100 and 100 Source: Norges Bank s lending survey

17 Consumption growth has slowed down Index of household consumption of goods, season adjusted volume index, 2005= Consumption year-on-yea growth Consumption volume index 85-6 jan. 05 apr. 05 jul. 05 okt. 05 jan. 06 apr. 06 jul. 06 okt. 06 jan. 07 apr. 07 jul. 07 okt. 07 jan. 08 apr. 08 jul. 08 okt. 08 jan. 09 apr. 09 jul. 09 okt. 09 jan. 10 apr. 10 jul. 10 okt. 10 jan. 11 apr. 11 jul.11 okt.11 jan.12 apr.12 jul.12 okt.12 jan.13 apr.13 jul.13 Consumption year-on-year growth Total commodity consumption Source: Statistics Norway,

18 Retail spending has levelled out 135 Norwegian retail volume index, season adjusted volume index, 2005= Retail vo olume ind dex Kilde: SSB l year-on- -year gro owth Retai 95 jan. 05 jan. 06 jan. 07 jan. 08 jan. 09 jan. 10 jan.11 jan.12-2 Retail year-on-year growth Retail volume index Source: Statistics Norway, 18

19 Agenda Introduction to Akershus Eiendom The Norwegian economy Oslo leasing market The investment market

20 Oslo: main types of property Oslo outer west Skøyen Lysaker Ullevål Majorstuen Inner city west Inner city north CBD Økern Oslo outer east Helsfyr-Bryn y Inner city east Ryen Office Office and retail Logistics Sinsen- NydalenStoro- Kjelsås- Grefsen Combination Mostly residential Fornebu Oslo outer south 20

21 Oslo office areas and volumes, 2013 Oslo outer west Skøyen Lysaker Ullevål Majorstuen Inner city west Sinsen- NydalenStoro- Kjelsås- Grefsen Inner city north CBD Økern Oslo outer east Helsfyr-Bryn y Inner city east Ryen Alna-Ulven m m 2 Fornebu Oslo outer south m 2 21

22 Oslo office rents, various segments 4500 Oslo office rents, (Nominal NOK) Prime High std CBD Newer space CBD Good std CBD High std Skøyen NOK/m²/year High std west fringe High std east fringe Older, 1ineffective 2p space H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H2 Kilde: Dagens Næringsliv/Akershus Eiendom Siste tall tilgjengelig: November 12

23 Rent levels, real NOK OFFICE RENTS (Real 2013 NOK) Prime High std CBD Newer space CBD Good std CBD NOK/m²/year High std west fringe High std east fringe Older, ineffective space 2012 H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H2 23 Source: Dagens Næringsliv/Akershus Eiendom

24 European Office Property Clock Q Source: Jones Lang LaSalle IP/Akershus Eiendom 24

25 Office rents, October 2013 Rent in NOK/m 2 : Oslo outer west Ullevål Nydalen Sinsen- Storo- Kjelsås- Grefsen Oslo outer east Alna-Ulven Normal high standard / Top standard / new space / Majorstuen Inner city north Økern / Skøyen Inner city west CBD Inner city east Helsfyr-Bryn / / Lysaker / Ryen / Oslo outer south Fornebu / 1 650

26 Top 10 new lease contracts De 10 største i hele 2012 De 10 største så langt i 2013 Government, Kongens gate 8/ m2 Aker Solutions, Fornebuporten m2 Kværner, Drammensveien m2 Orkla (sublease), Nedre Skøyen vei m2 KLIF G KLIF, Grensesvingen i m2 G Government, t Akersgata Ak t m2 Statoil F&R, Schweigaards gate m2 Lundin, Strandveien m2 Aller Media, Hasle Linje m2 Technip, Lysaker Polaris m2 Statens Pensjonskasse, Drammensv m2 Wiersholm, Stranden m2 Oslo Kommune, Storgata m2 Sweco, Drammensveien m2 Opera Software, Gjerdrums vei m2 NAV, Økernveien m2 NAV, Waldemar Thranes gate m2 Bymiljøetaten, Hasle Linje m2 Lindorff, Hoffsveien 70B m2 Kværner, Fornebuporten m2

27 New Oslo office projects, confirmed, Siemens New for 2013 Bymiljøetaten OCCI Lysaker Polaris BT 1 PGS Fornebuporten Bygg A Bygg B Accenture USA s embassy Østensjøvn 27 Silurveien 2 Drammensveien 134 Yara R.S. Platou Storgata SSB Deloitte 2013: m² 2014: m² 2015: m² YS/ Tine NSB DNB Del 3 Aller Media SFR Gjensidige Fredrik Selmers vei 4 Ryensvingen 5-7 Schneider Electric New for 2014 Confirmed for Light colours indicate vacant space

28 Oslo office development, Office development, greater Oslo, including known projects struction of offic ce space, m 2 New con Asker/Bærum Other Oslo west CBD Oslo East Fornebu

29 Oslo office vacancy: 7,0 as of October 2013 Oslo outer west Ullevål Majorstuen Nydalen Inner city north Sinsen- Storo- Kjelsås- Grefsen Økern Oslo outer east Alna-Ulven >20 <20 <17,5 <15 <12,5 Skøyen Inner city west Sentrum Helsfyr-Bryn Inner city east <10 <7,5 Lysaker Ryen <5 <2,5 Fornebu Oslo outer south

30 Oslo office vacancy, E Office Vacancy in Oslo measured in m² and M 2 off fice ,5 7 6, ,5 6, E 15E 16E 17E Vacancy level by the start of the year Net new office space added Change in demand (absorbed space) actual Forecast Kilde: Akershus Eiendom

31 Oslo office vacancy E M 2 off fice Office Vacancy in Oslo measured in m² and Forecast as of October , , E 14E 15E 16E 17E Vacancy level by the start of the year Net new office space added Change in demand (absorbed space) actual Forecast Kilde: Akershus Eiendom

32 Oslo office vacancy, E Office Vacancy in Oslo measured in m² and M 2 off fice ,5 7 6, ,5 6, E 15E 16E 17E Vacancy level by the start of the year Net new office space added Change in demand (absorbed space) actual Forecast Kilde: Akershus Eiendom

33 Oslo: historic growth and forecast E Annual nominal rental growth Forecast Forecast

34 Agenda Introduction to Akershus Eiendom The Norwegian economy Oslo leasing market The investment market

35 Transactions Transaction volume of commercial properties (deals larger than NOK 50 million) Mill NO OK Residential projects Logistics / industrial properties Retail properties Commercial land plots Hotels Office buildings Kilde: Akershus Eiendom YTD 35

36 Buyers and sellers in 2012 Closed-end funds 16 Property companies 35 Remaining 19 Owner occupier 4 Property companies 37 Remaining 13 Pi Private investors 18 Buyers Foreign investors 4 Insurance / Pension funds 14 Private investors 8 Insurance / Pension funds 13 Sellers Foreign investors 19

37 8, ,50 7,00 6, ,00 5,50 5,00 4,50 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 Prime yield transactions (office properties on long leases) Interest rates and prime transaction yields Y Prime yield curve 10y SWAP 10y Gov.Bond Transaction yield jan. 02 jul. 02 jan. 03 jul. 03 jan. 04 jul. 04 jan. 05 jul. 05 jan. 06 jul. 06 jan. 07 jul. 07 jan. 08 jul. 08 jan. 09 jul. 09 jan. 10 jul. 10 jan. 111 jul. 11 jan. 12 jul. 12 jan. 13

38 Property value has moved sideways since 2009 Value, all Norwegian commercial property, Index 2005=100. Real values, average of all segments nationwide Index 1999= =

39 Our own indexes show flat value development Akershus Eiendom s value indexes for commercial property Index: Shar reofvaluem measured by end of Oslo office, 10-year lease Oslo office, 2-4-year lease Larger shopping centres, Norwegian cities Greater Oslo logistics, year 15 lease Rising rents Higher refurb costs Tight financingi

40 Takk for oppmerksomheten