Challenges of Budgetary and Financial Crisis in Europe
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1 Challenges of Budgetary and Financial Crisis in Europe Carlo Cottarelli Director, Fiscal Affairs Department London School of Economics and Political Science November 18, 211
2 Fiscal Monitor, September 211 2
3 Overview 1. The state of the public finances before the 28 crisis 2. The effect of the crisis on the fiscal accounts 3. The risks arising from the current situation 4. Policy conclusions 3
4 1. The state of the public finances before the 28 crisis 4
5 General Government Gross Debt in G-7 Economies, Average Japan (In percent of GDP) Canada Germany United Kingdom France Italy United States
6 General Government Gross Debt in Selected Advanced Economies, Australia (In percent of GDP) Belgium Greece Korea Netherlands New Zealand Portugal 8 6 Spain 1 8 Sweden
7 2. The effect of the crisis on the fiscal accounts 7 7
8 Change in General Government Debt and Deficit: Advanced Economies Change in deficit with respect to Change in debt with respect to 27 8
9 Change in General Government Debt and Deficit: Advanced Economies Change in deficit with respect to Spain United States Greece United Japan Kingdom Canada Italy France Portugal Germany Change in debt with respect to 27 9
10 Change in General Government Debt and Deficit: Advanced Economies Spain Change in deficit with respect to United States Greece Japan Portugal United Kingdom Canada France Italy Germany Change in debt with respect to 27 1
11 Change in General Government Debt and Deficit: Advanced Economies Spain Change in deficit with respect to Canada United States United Kingdom Japan Portugal France Germany Greece Italy Change in debt with respect to 27 11
12 Change in General Government Debt and Deficit: Advanced Economies Change in deficit with respect to Canada Italy Germany Spain France Japan United States United Kingdom Portugal Greece Change in debt with respect to 27 12
13 Change in General Government Debt and Deficit: Advanced Economies Change in deficit with respect to Canada Germany Spain United Kingdom France Italy Japan United States Portugal Greece Change in debt with respect to 27 13
14 G-2 Advanced Economies: Increase in General Government Debt, (Total increase: 38.6 percentage points of GDP) Interest-growth dynamics, 17.5% Net lending and other stock-flow adjustments, 9.6% Automatic Revenue loss, 47.7% Financial sector support, 8.7% Fiscal stimulus, 16.5% 14
15 Illustrative Scenarios for Primary Balance Adjustment and Debt, Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance Primary Balance Overall Balance General Government Gross Debt-to-GDP Ratio
16 Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance that Needs to Be Maintained in 22 3 to Achieve Debt Target by 23 (In percent of GDP) 1 GRC Required CAPB in GBR FRA DEU JPN USA PRT ITA ESP AUT NED AUS CAN IRL DEN NZL BEL ISR Highest primary balance, 1-year rolling average 16
17 3. The risks arising from the current situation 17 17
18 General Government Deficit vs. Debt in Euro Area Countries, United States Ireland Japan Greece Deficit (percent of GDP) Slovenia Cyprus Spain Slovak Republic Netherlands Austria Malta France Portugal Italy Belgium Germany 1. Estonia Luxembourg Finland Gross Debt (percent of GDP) 18
19 Why Euro Area Countries Are Different from US and Japan? 1. Past and future fiscal trends 19
20 General Government Deficit vs. Debt in Euro Area Countries, Ireland Greece Deficit (percent of GDP) Slovenia Cyprus Spain Slovak Republic Netherlands Austria Malta France Portugal Italy Belgium Germany 1. Estonia Luxembourg Finland Gross Debt (percent of GDP) 2
21 General Government Deficit, in percent of GDP
22 Change in the Deficit in the Euro Area, US and Japan 6 Percent of GDP change, Fall 29 FM Current FM
23 Fiscal Outlook: Increase in General Government Debt during France October 29 Sept 211 Increase in debt, United States October 29 Italy (Change in percent of GDP) Sept 211 Increase in debt, Belgium October Sept 211 Increase in debt, Japan October Spain Sept 211 Increase in debt, Germany October 29 Sept 211 Increase in debt, October 29 Sept 211 Increase in debt, October 29 Sept 211 Increase in debt,
24 Why Euro Area Countries Are Different from US and Japan? 1. Past and future fiscal trends 2. Long-term pressures on spending for health care and pensions 24 24
25 NPV of Pension and Health care Spending Change 21 5 (Change in percent of GDP) Health care Pension
26 Why Euro Area Countries Are Different from US and Japan? 1. Past and future fiscal trends 2. Long-term pressures on spending for health care and pensions 3. Banks 4. Growth 26 26
27 Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads and Projected Real GDP Growth Bond yields spreads (basis points), August Real Growth GRC PRT IRL ITA ESP BEL SLK FRA AUT NED FIN USA JPN Projected real GDP growth (percent),
28 Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads and Real GDP Growth Bond yields spreads (basis points), August Real Growth GRC PRT IRL ITA ESP BEL SLK FRA NED AUT USA FIN JPN Real GDP growth (percent),
29 High Public Debt is Bad for Growth Rogoff and Reinhart: This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (29) Kumar and Woo: Public Debt and Growth (21) Steven Cecchetti: The Real Effects of Debt (211) 29
30 Why Euro Area Countries Are Different from US and Japan? 1. Past and future fiscal trends 2. Long-term pressures on spending for health care and pensions 3. Banks 4. Growth 5. Sources of financing 3 3
31 Sources of Financing: Holders of Public Debt United States Treasury Securities Japan Central Government Bonds Ireland Central Government Bonds 14% 34% 18% Private Residents Central Bank Private Non-residents Official Non-residents 85% 84% 16% 34% 3% 3% 9% France Central Government Securities Italy General Government Securities 4% Portugal General Government Debt 54% 46% 51% 45% 63% 36% 1% Belgium Gross Government Debt Greece Central Government Marketable Debt Spain Central Government Securities 3% 42% 65% 32% 45% 55% 55% 3% Note: For Ireland, France, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain: Private non-resident, includes ECB. 31
32 United States: Ownership of Treasury Securities 1% 9% 8% Private Non-residents 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Private Residents 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Central Bank 4% 3% 2% 1% % Official Non-residents China 1% % 32
33 Private Non-residents Holders of Debt vs. Yield Spreads 9 Share of private non-resident holdings of public debt France Spain Belgium United States Italy Ireland Portugal Greece Japan Yield spreads 33
34 Determinants of Spreads, Cross Section Analysis, 211 VARIABLES Gross debt to GDP 211 Primary balance to GDP 211 for Euro Area Debt held by a country s central bank or by foreign central banks to GDP Inflation rate 211 Real GDP Growth 211 NPV of pension spending in percent of GDP 21 NPV of health spending in percent of GDP 21 Primary balance to GDP 214 for Euro Area Potential output growth, average Constant (1) (2) (3) (4) (5).165***.191***.17***.17***.175*** (3.89) (5.683) (4.93) (5.26) (5.39) -.21*** -.185*** -.185*** -.189*** -.177*** (-3.728) (-3.273) (-3.195) (-3.432) (-3.66) -.287* -.38** -.398** -.424*** -.419*** (-1.744) (-2.747) (-2.633) (-3.531) (-3.681).39**.343***.395***.384***.382*** (2.729) (3.329) (4.623) (5.122) (5.24) -.195** -.221*** -.163** -.159*** -.153** (-2.632) (-3.58) (-2.626) (-2.822) (-2.671) (-.225) (-.478) (-.615) (-.699) (-.87) (-.88) (-.373).948 (.856).287*.29* (1.724) (1.765) 2.589*** 2.56*** 2.872*** 2.845*** 2.712*** (4.64) (4.982) (6.11) (6.418) (5.949) Observations R-squared Robust t-statistics in parentheses *** p<.1, ** p<.5, * p<.1 34
35 4. Policy conclusions 35
36 Policy Conclusions 1. United States and Japan need a clear plan 2. Europe needs: 1. Adjustment in fiscal fundamentals 36
37 General Government Deficit vs. Debt in Euro Area Countries, Deficit (percent of GDP) Slovenia Slovak Republic Cyprus Malta Spain Austria Netherlands Ireland United States France Belgium Portugal Japan Greece 1. Estonia Luxembourg Germany Italy Finland Gross Debt (percent of GDP) 37
38 Policy Conclusions 1. United States and Japan need a clear plan 2. Europe needs: 1. Adjustment in fiscal fundamentals 2. Reforms to boost potential growth 38
39 The Role of Growth Lowering Debt Ratios Debt in Percent of GDP Role of Growth in Debt Reduction Year Baseline 29% Difference With growth increased by 1 percentage points Initial debt ratio at 1% Increase the growth rate for 1 years by 1 p.p. Spending constant in per capita terms, assuming a 4% tax ratio Would lower public debt by 29% of GDP 39
40 Policy Conclusions 1. United States and Japan need a clear plan 2. Europe needs: 1. Adjustment in fiscal fundamentals 2. Reforms to boost potential growth 3. Banking 4. Financing for countries that are adjusting 4
41 Thank You!
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