BP Energy Outlook 2030

Transcription

1 BP Energy Outlook 23 University of Surrey May 211 Christof Ruehl, Group Chief Economist

2 Outline Global trends Liquid fuels Gas, power and coal What can bend the trend? Energy Outlook 23 2

3 The world we live in Population Primary energy GDP Billion Billion toe Trillion, $29 PPP OECD Non-OECD Forecast OECD Non-OECD Forecast OECD Non-OECD Forecast Energy Outlook 23 3

4 Historical trends and patterns of development Energy use per unit of GDP toe per thousand $29 PPP.6 China US Russia/USSR Forecast.4 UK.2 World Japan India Energy Outlook 23 4

5 The long view: Energy consumption and fuel mix World commercial energy use Billion toe Contribution to total energy growth % p.a Renewables* Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal * Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 23 5

6 The relationship between population, GDP and energy % p.a. 4% Global growth rates 3% 2% GDP Population 1% Energy % -1% Energy per capita Energy per GDP -2% Energy Outlook 23 6

7 Non-OECD economies drive consumption growth Billion toe Billion toe * 14 Renewables Hydro 1 1 Nuclear Non-OECD OECD Coal Gas Oil * Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 23 7

8 Gas and renewables win as fuel shares converge Shares of world primary energy Contributions to growth 5% Oil 2.5% Renewables* 4% 2.% Hydro 3% Coal 15% 1.5% Nuclear 2% Gas 1.% Coal Gas 1% Hydro.5% Oil Nuclear Renewables* %.% * Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 23 8

9 Industry and power generation dominate energy growth Growth of world energy consumption 21-3 Billion toe by sector and region Billion toe by sector and fuel Transpor rt Industry Othe r Final energy use Other Non-OECD Middle East China & India OECD Inputs to power Transpor rt Industry Othe r Final energy use Hydro Nuclear Renew. Electricity Gas Biofuels Oil Coal Inputs to power Energy Outlook 23 9

10 Policies to constrain carbon emissions gradually tighten by region Billion tonnes CO 2 4 Global CO 2 emissions from energy use by fuel Billion tonnes CO 2 4 vs GDP and energy Index (199=1) Coal 35 3 GDP 2 1 Non-OECD OECD 2 1 Gas Oil Energy CO Energy Outlook 23 1

11 Oil (and other liquid fuels)

12 Liquids balance demand and supply Mb/d Demand Supply Other S&C Am Mid East Other Asia China 23 level Oil Sands Biofuels Brazil FSU Other Iraq Saudi NGLs OECD Declines Non- 21 Non- Non- OECD OPEC OPEC Growth Growth Declines OPEC Growth Energy Outlook 23 12

13 Demand growth driven by non-oecd transport and industry Liquids demand by region Mb/d Other FSU Middle East Other non- OECD Asia China US Other OECD Liquids demand by sector Mb/d Non-OECD Ind & Other Non-OECD Transport OECD Ind & Other 3 OECD Transport 15 Power Energy Outlook 23 13

14 Oil growth in the transport sector slows Energy in transport Passenger car fuel economy Mtoe litres/1 km* 3 9 US 25 Electricity 8 China 2 Gas 7 Japan OECD Europe 15 Coal 6 1 Biofuels 5 5 Oil * New sales average Energy Outlook 23 14

15 China remains a key component of oil consumption growth China s liquids demand growth Mb/d 5 4 Power/ 3 Other Liquids demand per capita from 197 Bbls per person 2 China South Korea 16 Taiwan Malaysia 12 Thailand 2 1 Industry Transport GDP per capita ($29PPP, Thousands) Energy Outlook 23 15

16 Supply growth comes primarily from OPEC Liquids supply by region Mb/d 15 Liquids supply by type Mb/d 15 9 Asia Pacific 9 OPEC NGLs 75 Africa 75 OPEC crude Middle East FSU Europe S & C America North America 6 Biofuels Oil Sands Other non- OPEC Non-OPEC conventional Energy Outlook 23 16

17 OPEC s critical role in the oil market continues Mb/d OPEC production and spare capacity (Crude and NGLs) Other OPEC Saudi Arabia Iraq OPEC Spare Capacity % of Global Output (rhs) OPEC production 5% 45% 2 1 4% % Energy Outlook 23 17

18 Biofuels meet an increasing share of demand growth Mb/d Biofuels supply Mb/d Liquids demand growth 1.5 4% Average annual growth (lhs) Asia Pacific Biofuels share % (rhs) 3% Other 1. US 2 Europe.5 2% 1% 1 Brazil % Energy Outlook 23 18

19 Gas, power and coal

20 Gas production and consumption growth moderates Bcf/d Production Bcf/d Consumption % p.a. S & C America 4 4 North America 3 24% 2.4% pa p.a. 3 Middle East Europe FSU Asia sa Africa Energy Outlook 23 2

21 Gas demand growth is driven by the non-oecd Bcf/d 5 Demand by region Other Bcf/d 5 Demand by sector Transport 4 FSU 3 Middle East 2 Other non- OECD Asia 1 China Non-OECD Power Non-OECD Ind & Other OECD Power OECD OECD Ind & Other Energy Outlook 23 21

22 Unconventional gas will play a growing role Bcf/d North America Bcf/d Sources of gas supply, by region Europe Bcf/d China Net imports: Pipeline LNG 6 6 Domestic Column 4 production: 4 4 Syngas from coal 2 2 Shale gas and CBM Conventional (inc tight gas) Energy Outlook 23 22

23 LNG trade grows twice as fast as global gas production Bcf/d 7 LNG exports by basin Middle East 6 Pacific Basin Atlantic Basin Bcf/d LNG imports by region 7 Other 6 non-oecd Asia OECD Asia 5 Europe Energy Outlook 23 23

24 Gas displaces coal in OECD power generation North America Shares of power generated from fossil fuels OECD Europe Share Share Share 1% 1% 1% OECD Asia Oil 8% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% Coal 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% Gas % % % Energy Outlook 23 24

25 What bends the trend?

26 1. The future path of global economic growth Primary energy consumption Differences from Base Case, 23 Billion toe 2 2% High GDP Case Base 15% Case 15 1% Low GDP 5% Case 1 % GDP Primary Energy Oil Gas -5% Coal 5-1% -15% Non-fossil % High Case Low Case Energy Outlook 23 26

27 2. Stronger policy action on climate change CO 2 emissions from energy use Sources of carbon abatement Billion tonnes CO 2 versus Base Case, Base Case Iraq 5.4 billion tonnes reduction 22 CCS 3 Policy Case Fuel switching 25 IEA 45 Scenario * Energy efficiency * a back-cast cast which illustrates what is required to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 45 ppm from IEA, World Energy Outlook 21 Energy Outlook 23 27

28 3. China s pathway Industrialisation Industry share - % of GDP Toe / person Energy per capita 5 China 29 9 US Japan US Japan GDP per capita ($29PPP, Thousands) 1 China GDP per capita ($29PPP, Thousands) Energy Outlook 23 28

29 4. Energy security Mtoe OECD Europe US China 15 1% Oil & gas consumption 75% 75 5% 5 25 Oil & gas production 25% % Net imports as % of consumption (rhs): Oil Gas Energy Outlook 23 29

30 Conclusion Energy efficiency improving Fuel mix diversifying Carbon emissions too high Regional and policy trends mixed Energy Outlook 23 3

31 Q & A A trend is a trend is a trend. But the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course Through some unforeseen force And come to a premature end? (Alec Cairncross) Energy Outlook 23 31

32 BP Energy Outlook 23 London, January 211