Global Natural Gas Supply and Demand
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1 Global Natural Gas Supply and Demand Sergey Paltsev Assistant Director for Economic Research, The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Principal Research Scientist, MIT Energy Initiative MIT Europe Energy Conference Rome, Italy March 28-29, 2012 Questions or comments? Contact: Sergey Paltsev
2 Motivation 1. Shale gas and LNG 2. Move from coal to gas 3. Move to renewables 4. Economics vs geopolitics 2
3 Major Points Global natural gas use will grow from the current 110 Tcf to 130 Tcf in 2020, 160 Tcf in 2030, and Tcf in Gas markets are still regional (U.S., Europe, Asia) Integrated gas markets lead to an even greater use and relatively lower prices. Watch for surprises -U.K. gas -U.S. gas -Poland gas -China gas U.S. - $2-4, Europe - $8-10, Japan - $15: A case for substantial U.S gas exports? -Maybe not. Shale gas in China might be a game changer -But perhaps not in the next decade 3
4 MIT Publications The Future of Natural Gas (by E. Moniz et al.) The Good News About Gas: The Natural Gas Revolution and its Consequences, Foreign Affairs, 90(1), (by J. Deutch) The Future of U.S. Natural Gas Production, Use, and Trade, Energy Policy, 2011, 39(9), p (by S. Paltsev et al.) The Influence of Shale Gas on U.S. Energy and Environmental Policy, Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, 2012,1, (by H. Jacoby et al.) EPPA Model of the world economy 4
5 In progress Russia s Natural Gas Export Potential up to 2050, MIT Joint Program Report 201. (by S. Paltsev), report is available at: pubs/abstract.php?publication_id=2167 De-Mystifying GHG Emissions from Shale Gas Production (by F. O Sullivan and S.Paltsev) Shale Gas in China: Implications for International Trade (by S. Paltsev, F. O Sullivan and Q. Ejaz) 5
6 On one hand 6
7 On the other hand March 2012 April
8 On the other hand March
9 Shale Gas Resources, Tcf Source: EIA (2011) No estimate for Russia or the Middle East Global Resources: 16,000 Tcf Additional Shale : 6,000 Tcf Poland: IEA (2011) 187 Tcf Global Resources: 22,000 Tcf Poland Government (2012) Tcf; Might be up to 67 Tcf 9
10 Natural Gas Prices, BP (2011) Winter Prices: US (Sept - $4; March - $2), UK - $10 (NBP on Oct 3 $6.50; Feb 7 - $15.50, end of March - $9.40), Germany - $11, Japan - $
11 Global Natural Gas Use Global Reserves: 6,600 Tcf (BP, 2011) Global Consumption: Tcf Tcf years of gas? No, more than that. 11
12 Natural Gas Resources, Tcf Source: MIT (2011) Global Consumption: Tcf Tcf Global Reserves: 6,600 Tcf (BP, 2010) Global Resources: World 16,000 Tcf (plus shale gas in non-north America) 12
13 International Gas Market Development, 2030 Regional Markets Source: MIT (2011) Global Market 13
14 Russian Natural Gas Exports Russia s Exports - Reference Russia s Exports Asia Demand Source: MIT Joint Program Report 201 (2011) 14
15 How much natural gas does Europe need? Proved Reserves (BP): EU Tcf (Netherlands 50 Tcf), Norway 100 Tcf Annual Consumption (20) Tcf Source: MIT Joint Program Report 201 (2011) 15
16 Natural gas in Europe Source: MIT Joint Program Report 201 (2011) 16
17 Shale Gas in China Source: EIA (2011) 17
18 (No) Shale Gas in China and Global supply Source: Paltsev, Ejaz, O Sullivan (2012) 18
19 Shale Gas in China and Global supply Source: Paltsev, Ejaz, O Sullivan (2012) 19
20 China Gas Potential Futures Consumption Production 20
21 China Gas Potential Futures Imports By 2050 China might become natural gas exporter 21
22 Major Points Global natural gas use will grow from the current 110 Tcf to 130 Tcf in 2020, 160 Tcf in 2030, and Tcf in Gas markets are regional (U.S., Europe, Asia) Integrated gas markets lead to an even greater use and relatively lower prices. Watch for surprises -U.K. gas -U.S. gas -Poland gas -China gas U.S. - $2-4, Europe - $8-10, Japan - $15: A case for substantial U.S gas exports? -Maybe not. Shale gas in China might be a game changer -But perhaps not in the next decade 22
23 Thanks are due: Qudsia Ejaz Francis O Sullivan Ernest Moniz John Reilly Henry Jacoby Tony Meggs James Jensen 23
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