Nation Divided Over Amendment to Ban Homosexual Marriages

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: SAME-SEX MARRIAGE 2/22/04 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2004 Nation Divided Over Amendment to Ban Homosexual Marriages Public support for a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriages has grown in the last month, leaving the nation split down the middle as George W. Bush announced his support for an amendment Tuesday. Forty-six percent of Americans favor an amendment, while 45 percent say the states should be left to make their own laws on the issue. Just a month ago, by contrast, 58 percent wanted it left to the states. Much of the change has occurred in the West an apparent backlash to the same-sex marriages now occurring in San Francisco. 100% 90% 80% Gay Marriage: Amend the Constitution or Let the States Decide? ABC News/Washington Post poll 70% 60% 58% Amend Constitution Leave it to the states 50% 46% 45% 40% 38% 20% 10% 0% Jan. 18 Now Apart from views on a constitutional amendment, opposition to homosexual marriages remains firm. Fifty-five percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll say they should be illegal, steady since last fall. And the intensity of sentiment is twice as strong among opponents: Forty-nine percent of Americans feel strongly that same-sex marriages should be illegal, while just 25 percent strongly want them legal. Still, there s a closer division on civil unions for gay couples, with 45 percent in favor and 48 percent opposed. And the intensity of sentiment on civil unions which Bush today said should be left to the states is less lopsided than it is on gay marriage.

2 Bush and the leading Democratic contenders for president oppose same-sex marriage, but the Democrats also oppose a constitutional amendment to ban it. John Kerry supports legal civil unions; John Edwards supports domestic partner benefits for same-sex couples but has not taken a position on civil unions, saying it should be up to the states. Bush, too, hasn't endorsed civil unions, but said today that states should be allowed "to make their own choices in defining legal arrangements other than marriage." In effect, he s splitting the difference on this issue proposing to ban gay marriages but leaving civil unions up to the states not unlike his half-a-loaf position on stem-cell research. 80% Same-Sex Marriage and Civil Unions ABC News/Washington Post poll 70% 60% Allow civil unions? Strongly Somewhat Same-sex marriage? 55% 50% 45% 48% 40% 39% 41% 25% 49% 20% 10% 0% 16% 13% 7% 6% Should Should not Legal Illegal Bush s support for an amendment plays to his core support groups in this election year. What remains to be seen, though, is whether it helps, hurts, or has no effect in the center, among such groups as independents and moderates. No effect might be the outcome; gay marriage consistently has placed very low on voters priority lists, far outstripped by concerns about the economy, national security, health care, education and others. Seventy-three percent of Republicans, conservatives and evangelical white Protestants alike Bush s core groups say gay marriage should be illegal. Majorities in each group, albeit smaller ones, favor a constitutional amendment to ban it 64 percent of white evangelical Protestants, 58 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of conservatives. The gap between opposition to gay marriage and support for an amendment among these core groups underscores its political complexity. It suggests that even some of the base opponents of gay marriage are unwilling to amend the Constitution, and extend the reach of the federal government, on this issue.

3 Independents, moreover, are more apt to favor letting the states make their own laws than amending the Constitution, and divide on whether such marriages should be allowed. And both white Catholics a key swing voter group and non-evangelical white Protestants an important pro-republican group are much less likely than evangelical Protestants to oppose gay marriage, or to support a constitutional ban. Same-sex marriage: Amend Leave to Legal Illegal Constitution the states All 39% 55 46% 45 Republicans Democrats Independents Conservatives Liberals Moderates White Protestants Evangelical Non-evangelical White Catholics Still, perhaps because of reaction to the events in California, Bush is in a better position on this issue than last month, when a majority even of Republicans favored state control of homosexual marriage laws. The views of many Democrats also have shifted in January, Democrats opposed an amendment by nearly 2-1; now they divide about evenly. As noted, the biggest change has occurred in the West. There, in January, 30 percent supported a constitutional amendment, while 66 percent wanted the issue left up to the states. Now, 42 percent favor an amendment, and 44 percent want states to decide. Among Westerners 2/22 1/18 Change Amend the Constitution 42% Leave it to the states Passage of an amendment isn t a given, especially in light of the public split on the issue. Constitutional amendments require two-thirds support in the U.S. House and Senate and ratification by three-fourths of states, a process that generally takes years. MARRIAGE This is the third straight ABC/Post poll since September in which 55 percent of Americans oppose same-sex marriages. As noted, opponents are twice as likely as supporters to feel strongly about it. Strong opposition peaks at about two in three Republicans, conservatives and evangelical white Protestants. Strong support is highest among non-religious Americans (47 percent) and liberals (45 percent). Age and marital status also help shape opinions, with younger adults far more accepting of gay marriage. About three in four senior citizens say same-sex marriages should be illegal (two in three strongly), but 54 percent of year olds say they should be legal

4 (more than one in three strongly). Six in 10 married people oppose gay marriages, while those who aren t married divide on the question. CIVIL UNIONS Opinion of civil unions is more closely divided, and opponents again are more likely to hold strong feelings, but less overwhelmingly so. Forty-eight percent say civil unions that give homosexuals some legal rights of married couples should not be allowed, including 41 percent who feel strongly about it. Forty-five percent say these unions should be allowed, including 30 percent who feel that way strongly. Again, age and marital status help shape these views. Sixty percent of younger Americans, but only 27 percent of senior citizens, favor civil unions. Most unmarried people support the idea, while a majority of those who are married reject it. There s a gender gap here as well. Men are more likely to oppose civil unions, by 52 percent to 41 percent. Women divide, with 49 percent in favor, 45 percent opposed. RELIGION S ROLE Religious belief and practice play a strong role in these views. Most Protestants oppose same-sex civil unions and marriages and favor a constitutional ban; most Catholics would allow civil unions, and half say states should decide whether same-sex marriages are legal. Catholics divide on the marriage question itself. There are divisions within each group. Among Catholics, the dividing line is between those who attend Mass weekly and those who don t. Among white Protestants, as noted, it s between evangelicals and non-evangelicals. Catholics who attend church weekly, and evangelical Protestants, are much more apt to say same-sex marriages should be illegal and to back a constitutional amendment banning them. ACROSS BORDERS Lastly there s the issue of whether, if homosexual marriages are legal in one state, other states should be required to recognize them a concern raised by Bush today. Fifty-four percent of Americans say no, other states should not recognize such marriages, while 41 percent say they should roughly the same proportions as opposition or support for gay marriage overall. METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Feb , 2004, among a random national sample of 1,028 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by David Morris. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Inernet at: Vault.html Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) , or Lisa Finkel, (212) Results follow:

5 1. On another subject, do you think homosexual couples should or should not be allowed to form legally recognized civil unions, giving them the legal rights of married couples in areas such as health insurance, inheritance and pension coverage? Should Should not /22/ /18/04 46 NA NA 51 NA NA 4 9/7/03 40 NA NA 51 NA NA 9 2. Do you think it should be legal or illegal for homosexual couples to get married? Legal Illegal /22/ /18/04 41 NA NA 55 NA NA 4 9/7/03 37 NA NA 55 NA NA 7 3. (Would you support amending the U.S. Constitution to make it illegal for homosexual couples to get married anywhere in the U.S.), or (should each state make its own laws on homosexual marriage)? ---Support amendment State laws /22/ /18/04 38 NA NA 58 NA NA 3 4. Say a homosexual couple is legally married in one state, then moves to another state. Should that other state be required to recognize that marriage as legal, or not? Yes No No opinion 2/22/ ***END***