Expect the Unexpected:

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1 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld kpmg.cm KPMG INTERNATIONAL Executive Summary

2 In thi reprt, KPMG netwrk f firm analyze a ytem f ten utainability megafrce that will impact each and every buine ver the next 20 year. Thee frce d nt act alne in predictable way. They are intercnnected. They interact. Diclaimer: Thrughut thi dcument, "KPMG" ["we," "ur," and "u"] refer t KPMG Internatinal, a Swi entity that erve a a crdinating entity fr a netwrk f independent member firm perating under the KPMG name, KPMG' Climate Change and Sutainability practice, and/r t any ne r mre f uch firm and/r t KPMG Climate Change and Sutainability practice. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

3 Intrductin Fr 20 year r mre the wrld ha recgnized that the way we d buine ha eriu impact n the wrld arund u. Nw it i increaingly clear that the tate f the wrld arund u affect the way we d buine. The reurce n which buine relie are becming mre difficult t acce and mre ctly. Increaing train n infratructure and natural ytem i likely a pattern f ecnmic grwth and wealth change. Phyical aet and upply chain will be affected by the unpredictable reult f a changing climate. And buinee can expect an ever mre cmplex web f utainability legilatin and fical intrument. But thi i nt the whle try. The central challenge f ur age decupling human prgre frm reurce ue and envirnmental decline can al be ne f the bigget urce f future ucce fr buine. Mre crpratin are recgnizing that there i value and pprtunity in a brader ene f repnibility beynd the next quarter reult; that what i gd fr peple and the planet can al be gd fr the lng term bttm line and harehlder value. In thi reprt, KPMG netwrk f firm analyze a ytem f ten utainability megafrce that will impact each and every buine ver the next 20 year. Thee frce d nt act alne in predictable way. They are intercnnected. They interact. It i imprtant fr buine leader t undertand thi ytem f frce; ae the implicatin fr their wn rganizatin; and devie trategie fr managing the rik and harneing the pprtunitie. We can never knw the future. But it i gd buine ene t be prepared fr the pibilitie: t expect the unexpected. Thi reprt cannt prvide all the anwer, and de nt et ut t, but it de ugget apprache that we at KPMG believe will help t build buine value in a changing wrld KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

4 Glbal utainability megafrce will affect the future f every buine Fr thi reprt dzen f frecat have been analyzed t identify the change that will have the greatet effect n buine. Over the next 20 year buinee will be exped t hundred f envirnmental and cial change that will bring bth rik and pprtunitie in the earch fr utainable grwth. Fr thi reprt dzen f frecat have been analyzed t identify the change that will have the greatet effect n buine. The reult i a et f ten glbal utainability megafrce that we believe will impact every buine ver the next tw decade. They are: Climate Change: the ne glbal megafrce that directly impact all ther dicued in thi reprt. Predictin f annual utput le frm climate change range between 1 percent per year, if trng and early actin i taken, t at leat 5 percent a year if plicymaker fail t act. Energy & Fuel: fil fuel market are likely t becme mre vlatile and unpredictable becaue f higher glbal energy demand; change in the gegraphical pattern f cnumptin; upply and prductin uncertaintie; and increaing regulatry interventin related t climate change. Material Reurce Scarcity: a develping cuntrie indutrialize rapidly, glbal demand fr material reurce i predicted t increae dramatically. Buine i likely t face increaing trade retrictin and intene glbal cmpetitin fr a wide range f material reurce that becme le eaily available. Scarcity al create pprtunitie t develp ubtitute material r t recver material frm wate. Water Scarcity: it i predicted that by 2030, the glbal demand fr frehwater will exceed upply by 40 per cent. 1 Buinee may be vulnerable t water hrtage, decline in water quality, water price vlatility, and t reputatinal 1 United Natin Envirnment Prgramme. (2011). Tward a Green Ecnmy: Pathway t Sutainable Develpment and Pverty Eradicatin KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

5 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary 3 challenge. Grwth culd be cmprmied and cnflict ver water upplie may create a ecurity rik t buine peratin. Ppulatin Grwth: glbal ppulatin i predicted t be 8.4 billin by 2032 in a mderate grwth cenari. 2 Thi grwth will place intene preure n ecytem and the upply f natural reurce uch a fd, water, energy and material. 3 Buinee can expect upply challenge and price vlatility a a reult. Thi i a threat, but there are al pprtunitie t grw cmmerce, create jb, and t innvate t addre the need f grwing ppulatin. Wealth: the glbal middle cla (defined by the OECD a individual with dipable incme f between US$10 and US$100 per capita per day) 4 i predicted t grw 172 percent between 2010 and The challenge fr buinee i t erve thi new middle cla market at a time when reurce are likely t be carcer and mre price-vlatile. The advantage many cmpanie experienced in the lat tw decade frm cheap labr in develping natin are likely t be erded by the grwth and pwer f the glbal middle cla. Urbanizatin: in 2009, fr the firt time ever, mre peple lived in citie than in the cuntryide. 6 By 2030 all develping regin including Aia and Africa are expected t have the majrity f their inhabitant living in urban area; 7 virtually all Ppulatin Grwth ver the next 30 year will be in citie. Thee citie will require extenive imprvement in infratructure including cntructin, water and anitatin, electricity, wate, tranprt, health, public afety and internet and cell phne cnnectivity. Fd : in the next tw decade the glbal fd prductin ytem will cme under increaing preure frm megafrce including Ppulatin Grwth, Water Scarcity and Defretatin. Glbal fd price are predicted t rie percent by In water-carce regin, agricultural prducer are likely t have t cmpete fr upplie with ther water-intenive indutrie uch a electric utilitie and mining, and with cnumer. Ecytem Decline: hitrically, the main buine rik f declining bidiverity and ecytem ervice ha been t crprate reputatin. Hwever, a glbal ecytem hw increaing ign f breakdwn and tre, mre cmpanie are realizing hw dependent their peratin are n the critical ervice thee ecytem prvide. The decline in ecytem i making natural reurce carcer, mre expenive and le divere; increaing the ct f water and ecalating the damage caued by invaive pecie t ectr including agriculture, fihing, fd and beverage, pharmaceutical and turim. Thee citie will require extenive imprvement in infratructure including cntructin, water and anitatin, electricity, wate, tranprt, health, public afety and internet and cell phne cnnectivity. Defretatin: Fret are big buine. Wd prduct cntributed $100 billin per year t the glbal ecnmy frm and the value f nn-wd fret prduct (mtly fd) wa etimated at US$18.5 billin in Yet fret area are predicted t decline by 13 percent frm 2005 t 2030, mtly in Suth Aia and Africa. 9 The timber indutry and dwntream ectr uch a pulp and paper are vulnerable t ptential regulatin t lw r revere defretatin. Cmpanie may al find themelve under increaing preure frm cutmer t prve that their prduct are utainable. Opprtunitie may arie thrugh market mechanim and incentive t reduce the rate f defretatin. 2 United Natin, Department f Ecnmic and Scial Affair, Ppulatin Diviin, (2011). Wrld Ppulatin Prpect: The 2010 Reviin. 3 Behren, A. et al. (2007). The material bai f the glbal ecnmy. Wrldwide pattern in natural reurce extractin and their implicatin fr utainable reurce ue plicie. Eclgical Ecnmic Khara, Hmi. (2010). OECD Develpment Centre Wrking Paper N. 285: The Emerging Middle Cla in Develping Cuntrie. January Ibid. 6 UN Habitat. (2009). Glbal Reprt n Human Settlement 2009: Planning Sutainable Citie. Lndn, UK and Sterling, VA, USA: United Natin Human Settlement Prgramme (UN-Habitat). 7 UN Habitat. (2010). State f the Wrld Citie 2010/2011 Citie fr All: Bridging the Urban Divide. 8 Oxfam Internatinal. (2011). Grwing a Better Future: Fd jutice in a reurce-cntrained wrld. 9 OECD. (2008). OECD Envirnmental Outlk t KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

6 The ytem apprach t utainability: planning fr change Exiting prjectin prvide me inight abut a pible future, but huld nt be relied upn t prvide the whle try. Many predictin extraplate current rate f change withut taking full accunt f the fact that utainability megafrce reinfrce, cmpete with, r balance the effect f ther. Fr example, increaing wealth and the grwth f the glbal middle cla will accelerate demand fr cnumer gd and ervice, putting further preure n the natural and material reurce needed t prduce them. Reginal frehwater availability culd truggle t keep pace with the agricultural prductin neceary t feed the grwing ppulatin. Urbanizatin predictin generally d nt accunt fr the ptential impact f climate change refugee migrating frm area where water and fd carcity hit hardet. Fd prductin prjectin rarely factr in deterirating il quality and the cmpeting demand fr agricultural land. Trend prjectin prepared withut cnideratin f the entire ytem f utainability megafrce n lnger prvide an adequate bai fr trategic buine deciin. Sytem thinking arund utainability embrace the entire tructure f megafrce rather than it individual cntituent. It i an imprtant way t ae and manage new rik and uncver rik that were previuly unidentified. Fr example, a cmpany may undertand it direct dependency n water, but may nt have thught abut hw the upply f it material reurce culd be impacted by increaing water carcity. Cmpanie may already be uing ytem thinking, fr example in trategic planning, revenue management r upply chain planning but in KPMG view it huld be applied a part f a practive utainability trategy. Trend prjectin prepared withut cnideratin f the entire ytem f megafrce n lnger prvide an adequate bai fr trategic buine deciin KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

7 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary 5 The nexu apprach The nexu apprach ha been widely ued by the Wrld Ecnmic Frum and ther t explre the driving frce behind the challenge f water ecurity. Fr the purpe f thi reprt we have develped three nexue which tgether repreent the challenge f utainable grwth. KPMG believe cmpanie will benefit frm explring thee nexue in their wn rganizatinal cntext. The Ftprint Nexu The frce behind mankind ecalating ftprint n the planet are interlinked thrugh a cmplex netwrk f relatinhip. The Ftprint Nexu i a ueful planning tl t help buine leader enviin the future wrld and market cnditin they will be perating in and t develp apprpriate trategie. Fr the purpe f thi reprt we have develped three nexue which tgether repreent the challenge f utainable grwth. Figure 1: The Ftprint Nexu = Same Directin = Oppite Directin = Delayed Effect Climate Change Climate Change Ppulatin Wealth Ppulatin Wealth Glbalizatin Urbanizatin Glbalizatin Urbanizatin Material Ue Material Ue Surce: KPMG (2012). Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld 2012 KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

8 6 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary The Erin Nexu The Erin Nexu help executive t explre in greater detail the many challenge and pprtunitie their buinee culd face a a reult f the interactin between utainability megafrce. By cnidering the full ytem f megafrce, executive are mre likely t avid utainability quick fixe that can reult in unfreeen prblem and greater rik later n. Figure 2: The Erin Nexu = Same Directin = Oppite Directin = Delayed Effect Climate Change Climate Change Water Fd Water Fd Human Ecytem Human Ecytem Energy Fret Energy Fret Surce: KPMG (2012). Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld 2012 KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

9 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary 7 The Innvatin Nexu The Innvatin Nexu i an example f hw executive can ue the ytem apprach t develp buine pprtunitie by innvating lutin t utainability prblem. Thi example ugget that utainable lifetyle, eclgical retratin, renewable energy, reurce prductivity, and the ue f ICT t create mart citie, are amng the key innvatin required t avid dangeru level f climate change. Figure 3: The Innvatin Nexu / = Same Directin = Oppite Directin = Same and Oppite Directin = Delayed Effect Climate Change / Climate Change Reurce Prductivity Sutainable Life Style Reurce Prductivity Sutainable Life Style Renewable Energy Eclgical Retratin Renewable Energy Eclgical Retratin Smart Citie Smart Citie Surce: KPMG (2012). Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld 2012 KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

10 Glbal Sutainability Megafrce: A ectral view It i prudent fr cmpanie t expect t pay in the future a riing prprtin f their external envirnmental ct. Over the next 20 year there i likely t be increaing preure fr the price f reurce, prduct and ervice t reflect the full ct f their prductin including the ct f envirnmental impact. Such preure i likely t grw a gvernment addre the effect f utainability megafrce. Pible future include the remval f ubidie n input cmmditie (uch a fil fuel and water) and the wider intrductin f mechanim t increae the ct f envirnmentally damaging utput. It i therefre prudent fr cmpanie t expect t pay in the future a riing prprtin f their external envirnmental ct which tday are ften nt hwn n financial tatement. Ct f envirnmental impact are dubling every 14 year Data prvided by Tructand analyzed fr thi reprt ugget that the external envirnmental ct f 11 key indutry ectr (including uptream upply chain) re by 50 percent between 2002 and 2010, frm US$566 billin t US$854 billin Fr the purpe f thi reprt, Truct, an independent envirnmental reearch agency, ha prvided a data et baed n the peratin f ver 800 cmpanie between 2002 and 2010 (2010 being the mt recent available data) and repreenting 11 ectr. In thi analyi Truct cnvert 22 envirnmental impact int financial value, drawing upn current envirnmental-ecnmic reearch. They include greenhue gae, water abtractin and wate generatin. Tgether thee 22 indicatr repreent the bulk f the envirnmental ftprint fr mt cmpanie. The phyical ttal f thee input and utput are cnverted int financial value and aggregated t achieve a ttal envirnmental ct value. Thee ct, which fr the mt part d nt appear n crprate financial tatement, are knwn a external envirnmental ct. EBITDA data cme frm independent financial data prvider and are checked by Truct analyt againt cmpany financial tatement. The cnverin f envirnmental impact int dllar um f external envirnmental ct i a relatively new practice but ne that i gaining mmentum. The data i nt yet 100 percent exact and fr thi rean the analye huld be taken a indicative rather than ablute KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

11 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary 9 The ectr analyzed were: Airline; Autmbile; Beverage; Chemical; Electricity; Fd Prducer; Indutrial Metal & Mining; Mining; Marine Tranprtatin; Oil & Ga; Telecmmunicatin & Internet (defined in line with the Indutry Claificatin Benchmark ytem). 11 The data ugget that the external envirnmental ct f buine peratin are dubling every 14 year: a rate that i unlikely t be utainable even in the medium-term. Value at take: ectr culd ee prfit lt External envirnmental ct culd accunt fr a cniderable prprtin f earning (EBITDA) and thu repreent ignificant buine value ptentially at take: acr the 11 ectr, the average external envirnmental ct per dllar f earning wuld have been apprximately 41 cent in Figure 4: 2010 EBITDA v external envirnmental ct In USD, Billin % % 42% 43% % 224% % 26 59% % 23% % 0 Airline Autmbile Beverage Chemical Electricity Fd Prducer Indutrial Metal Marine Tranprtatin Mining Oil & Ga Prducer Telecmmunicatin & Internet 2010 EBITDA (billin USD) 2010 Ttal envirnmental ct a percentage f EBITDA Surce: Truct See KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

12 10 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary Accrding t the data, Fd Prducer had the larget external envirnmental ct ftprint f the 11 ectr in 2010 at US$200 billin, fllwed by Electricity at US$195 billin and Oil & Ga at US$152 billin. External envirnmental ct f the Fd Prducer culd utweigh the ectr entire earning. Fr five ther ectr (Electricity, Indutrial Metal, Mining, Marine Tranprtatin and Airline) envirnmental ct culd accunt fr mre than half f earning. Expure reduced but driven mtly by rie in earning Fr mt ectr cvered in thi reprt, earning re far mre teeply than external envirnmental ct ver the perid , thereby reducing the prprtin f EBITDA at rik (average external envirnmental ct acr the 11 ectr wuld have accunted fr 91 cent fr every US dllar f earning in 2002 v 41 cent in 2010). Figure 5: Grwth in EBITDA v grwth in external envirnmental ct, % 907% 800% 679% 600% 526% 596% 400% 373% 200% 0% 165% 58% 22% -14% 126% 93% 102% 2.5% 140% 16% 52% 118% 56% 107% 133% 49% 84% -200% Airline Autmbile Beverage Chemical Electricity Fd Prducer EBITDA % Grwth Indutrial Metal Marine Tranprtatin Envirnmental Ct % Grwth Mining Oil & Ga Prducer Telecmmunicatin & Internet Surce: Truct KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

13 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary 11 The nly ectr f the 11 t demntrate an ablute reductin in it external envirnmental ct ver the eight-year perid wa Autmbile, which achieved a drp f 14 percent againt an earning increae f 22 percent ver the perid. Chemical recrded a minimal rie in envirnmental ct f 2.5 percent. Electricity wa the third lwet in term f grwth in envirnmental ct ver the perid, with an increae f 16 percent. Envirnmental intenity: a clearer picture Relative perfrmance f ectr wa explred by calculating hw their envirnmental intenity (external envirnmental ct per US dllar f earning) ha changed between 2002 and Indutrial Metal ha achieved the greatet imprvement f the 11 ectr in term f it envirnmental intenity, hwever the ectr ignificant grwth in earning ver the perid helped it t gain thi pitin. Figure 6: Ttal external envirnmental ct 2010 v grwth in external envirnmental ct ince 2002 v envirmental intenity imprvement Size f circle indicate the ectr ttal external envirnmental ct in 2010 in USD 120% % Imprvement in Envirnmental Intenity % 80% 60% 40% Autmbile 20% Electricity Indutrial Metal Telecmmunicatin+Internet Oil & Ga Prducer Beverage -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% -20% -40% Chemical Airline Marine Tranprtatin Fd Prducer Mining -60% Surce: Truct % Grwth in external envirnmental ct KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

14 12 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary Mining ha achieved a imilar imprvement in it envirnmental intenity but ha al recrded the larget increae f all 11 ectr in it external envirnmental ct. Mining ha achieved a imilar imprvement in it envirnmental intenity but ha al recrded the larget increae f all 11 ectr in it external envirnmental ct. A cluter f ectr Autmbile, Chemical and Electricity have imprved their envirnmental intenity while al achieving negative r lw grwth in the external envirnmental ct they incur. Thi ugget that thee three ectr are cming the clet t decupling their ecnmic grwth frm envirnmental impact. Fd Prducer and Beverage have hwn the lwet rate f envirnmental intenity imprvement. Fd Prducer i the nly ne f the 11 ectr that, accrding t the data, ha nt imprved it envirnmental intenity at all ver the lat eight year. Perceptin f ectral rik and readine t deal with them KPMG ha analyzed mre than 60 ectr reprt and aggregated their finding n the utainability rik faced by individual ectr and the readine f buinee t deal with the rik. 12 Given the methdlgy ued, the rik expure and readine level preented here are perceived, rather than actual and finding huld be taken a indicative nt ablute. The tw ectr perceived a being at highet rik frm utainability megafrce, but leat ready are Fd Prducer and Beverage. Thi upprt the finding f the envirnmental intenity analyi which hw they have made the leat prgre in reducing their envirnmental intenity while their expure t envirnmental ct i grwing rapidly. The Autmbile and Telecmmunicatin & Internet ectr are perceived a being the leat at rik and the mt ready. The cluter f ectr in the center f the rik-readine matrix indicate that perceived utainability rik remain high fr Oil & Ga, Electricity, Mining & Metal and Airline. Electricity i een a the mt ready amng thee. 12 The rik type aeed were: Phyical; Cmpetitive; Regulatry; Reputatinal; Litigatin; and Scial. Phyical Rik include the rik f damage t phyical aet and upply chain frm climate change-related weather event and expure t lng-term envirnmental trend, uch a variatin in water availability r riing ea level. Cmpetitive Rik include the rik f expure t ct increae r ct vlatility f key input cmmditie uch a energy, fuel, water and agricultural prduct a well a expure t hift in market dynamic. Regulatry Rik include the rik f increaed ct and cmplexity fr buine frm plicie and regulatin deigned t limit the lng-term effect f utainability megafrce. Example include carbn taxe, emiin trading ytem and fuel tariff. Reputatinal Rik include the rik f damage t crprate reputatin and brand value amng takehlder when a cmpany i perceived a failing t act apprpriately in repne t utainability challenge. Litigatin Rik include the rik f litigatin ver envirnmental damage r inufficient crprate diclure n utainability. Scial Rik include the rik f eriu diruptin t buine peratin and upply chain due t the cietal effect f utainability megafrce. Example include ma migratin a climate refugee try t ecape the wrt impact f climate change; cnflict ver carce reurce uch a water; and civil unret driven by ppulatin grwth and wealth inequality. The level f ectr readine wa al aeed uing data gathered fr the KPMG Internatinal Survey f Crprate Repnibility Reprting KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

15 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary 13 Figure 7: Rik and readine matrix Lw Oil & Ga Fd Prducer High Readine Telecmmunicatin & Internet Autmbile Chemical Marine Tranprtatin Airline Electricity Beverage Mining & Metal Lw Rik High Surce: KPMG (2012). Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld 2012 KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

16 14 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary Call t actin: Buine trategie & plicy frmatin Withut actin and planning fr the cmplex future that lie ahead, rik will multiply and pprtunitie will be lt. With ptentially far reaching impact n the hrizn a a reult f glbal utainability megafrce, buinee and plicymaker tgether mut take trategic deciin nw and prmte change in lng term thinking. Withut actin and planning fr the cmplex future that lie ahead, rik will multiply and pprtunitie will be lt. Sutainable grwth require actin frm bth ecnmic ide: upply and demand. The upply ide mut make mre with le, increaing reurce efficiency and minimizing the envirnmental ftprint f prcee and peratin. The demand ide mut make le d mre, managing grwing demand fr gd and ervice, while addreing preure n dwindling natural reurce. Recmmendatin: the eential f buine actin Glbal utainability megafrce will mean cntraint, cmplexity and rik fr buine. But buine leader can d much mre than imply urvive the rik. With freight and planning they can turn rik int new pprtunitie and pineer actin t prepare fr an uncertain future: Undertand and ae rik. Buinee are advied t ue Enterprie Rik Management tl and utainability ytem thinking t a) ae and undertand future rik frm utainability megafrce and b) define repne t deal with them thrugh efficiency, ubtitutin r adaptatin. Ue integrated trategic planning and trategy develpment. Strategic planning fr utainability require the invlvement f the buine management and huld encmpa a wide range f crprate functin. Turn trategic plan int ambitiu target and actin fr energy and reurce efficiency, utainable upply chain management, innvatin and acce t new market fr greener prduct and ervice. Explre tax incentive tailred t alternative energy, energy efficiency and ther area related t utainability. 13 Meaure and reprt n utainability. Sutainability reprting, althugh largely till unregulated, will becme increaingly imprtant in the future. Integrated reprting, where utainability infrmatin i included in the full picture f the cmpany buine perfrmance, i a grwing trend. Fr integrated reprting cmpanie need t build a framewrk fr utainability reprting prcee, trnger infrmatin ytem and apprpriate gvernance and cntrl mechanim n a par with the currently ued in financial reprting. Seek cllabratin with buine partner n utainability iue. Thi will be critical t increae leverage and imprve the ct-benefit rati f actin. Build trategic partnerhip: eek pprtunitie fr genuine dialgue with the gvernment and demntrate new and innvative apprache t Public-Private Partnerhip. Imprved dialgue culd fcu n ecnmic intrument and market barrier that culd be reduced t make utainable buine peratin eaier. 13 KPMG (2011). KPMG Internatinal Survey f Crprate Repnibility Reprting KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

17 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary 15 Figure 8: Glbal utainability megafrce Addreing the rik while realizing the pprtunitie Glbal Sutainability Megafrce Climate Change Material Reurce Scarcity Wealth Ecytem Decline Fd Energy & Fuel Ppulatin Grwth Urbanizatin Water Scarcity Defretatin Impact n buine Price increae and vlatility New regulatin Phyical and weather change Change in cnumer preference Reurce cntraint n prductin Regulatry Emerging rik Reputatinal Phyical Market Litigatin Scial The glbal utainability megafrce reult in bth rik and pprtunitie. Buinee can deign effective trategie t addre the rik while imultaneuly taking advantage f the pprtunitie. Reputatin and brand Emerging pprtunitie Innvatin and learning New prduct, ervice and market Ct reductin Acce t capital Interventin by buine Energy and reurce efficient peratin Sutainable upply chain management Strategic ectr partnerhip Invet int innvatin: utainable prduct/ervice Reprting and diclure Surce: KPMG (2012). Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld 2012 KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

18 16 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary Plicymaker are urged t deliver the verarching plicy gal that will be crucial fr buine t make a timely tranitin tward a utainable ciety. Recmmendatin: the eential f gvernment actin tward utainability The glbal utainability megafrce f the cming decade will bring hck and urprie. A gvernment in all regin will be called upn t take mre tep t limit r revere negative envirnmental and cial impact, buinee will be cnfrnted with an ever mre cmplex web f utainability-related fical intrument and legilatin. Plicymaker are urged t deliver the verarching plicy gal that will be crucial fr buine t make a timely tranitin tward a utainable ciety. Cntinuity and cherence in plicy: Clear, well planned and ecure gvernment plicie are crucial fr caling-up invetment and facilitating the tranitin t green ecnmy. Strng cllabratin acr gvernmental bdie and minitrie n utainability iue will be key. Reducing cmplexity in plicy: Reducing regulatry cmplexity and imprving tranparency i anther key area fr actin, a buinee frequently cite regulatry cmplexity a ne f the main urce f rik and uncertainty urrunding utainability. Crdinated internatinal cllabratin: Multilateral crdinatin acr cuntrie and regin, particularly fr carbn market and any future climate treaty, i needed t reduce regulatry cmplexity. Creatin f enabling green invetment envirnment: Plicymaker need t remve barrier t green invetment and etablih the eential enabling cnditin in all area: natinal-level regulatin, plicie, ubidie, incentive and legal framewrk, a well a internatinal market, legal infratructure, trade prtcl and develpment aid meaure. In creating an enabling envirnment, gvernment mut eek t ue a variety f plicy tl including taxatin. Increaed cllabratin with private ectr thrugh Public Private Partnerhip (PPP): If prperly deigned, PPP can prvide an effective architecture fr prmting utainability in a way that mbilize private ectr finance, rather than relying n public funding alne. Buine and gvernment wrking tgether: Public- Private Partnerhip a a tl fr green grwth T achieve their trategie, gvernment need crpratin t prvide lw-carbn and green technlgy, the kill t deply and perate it, and the fund f financier t invet in delivering it. Given that many natinal budget remain tretched a a reult f the glbal financial crii, the cnditin eem ripe fr the wider intrductin f PPP tructure uing private finance. 14 KPMG ha engaged in many PPP ver the pat 15 year. Baed n thi experience, the key pint fr develping ucceful PPP are: 15 The PPP prce cannt be ruhed it take time t develp prperly; PPP metime require ignificant upfrnt ct, but meeting thee ct will make it much mre attractive, particularly if invetr can ee that the right reurce have been applied; 14 United Natin Framewrk Cnventin n Climate Change Secretariat (2007). Invetment and Financial Flw t Addre Climate Change. Bnn. 15 KPMG (2011). Inight Urbaniatin: The maive challenge facing citie and innvative way it being addreed 2012 KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

19 Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary 17 Gvernment mut play an active rle in mnitring and regulating the prject; PPP tructure mut be deigned t include clear and frmal methdlgie fr reviewing cntract ver the term f the prject (particularly the that lat 10 t 30 year r mre); A ingle-minded fcu i eential fr develping tranparent and cmpetitive prcurement prcedure. Imperative fr achieving utainable grwth The tranitin t a utainable ecnmy i pible, but it require widepread glbal upprt frm buinee, gvernment and civil ciety. Thi tranitin require lutin that addre bth hw and which gd and ervice are prduced. Bth the public and private ectr have a vital rle t play and a crdinated apprach hld the key t ucce. The tranitin t a utainable ecnmy i pible, but it require widepread glbal upprt frm buinee, gvernment and civil ciety. Figure 9: Imperative fr cncerted actin n utainability Effective tranitin invlve bth upply and demand interventin Supply ide Objective: Reduce the envirmental impact f prductin Demand ide Objective: Shift demand frm reurce intenive t utainable gd and ervice Buine and gvernment mut wrk tgether t deign effective plicy t uprt the tranitin t a green ecnmy. Buine Public Private Partnerhip Gvernment Energy and reurce efficient peratin Prce tandard Sutainable upply chain Gvernment funded R&D Strategic ectr partnerhip Public private financing Fil fuel Subidie Pricing f negative externalitie Infratructure invetment / Sutainable citie Gvernment prcurement Tax incentive fr pecific prduct Innvatin Sutainable prduct/ervice New market Subidie fr pecific prduct Cnumer educatin Prduct tandard Surce: KPMG (2012). Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld 2012 KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. All right reerved.

20 Cntact Argentina Martín Mendivelúa E: cm.ar Armenia Andrew Cxhall E: Autralia Adrian V. King E: Autria Peter Ertl E: Azerbaijan Vugar Aliyev E: Baltic Gregry Rubinchik E: Belgium Steven Callaar E: Brazil Sidney It E: Bulgaria Emmanuel Ttev E: Cambdia Jnathan Levitt E: vn Canada Bill J. Murphy E: Chile Alejandr Cerda E: China/Hng Kng Leah Jin E: Clmbia Orland Delgadill A. E: Cypru Iacv Ghalan E: cm.cy Czech Republic Eva Rackva E: Denmark Chritian Hnré E: Finland Nathalie Clément E: France Philippe Arnaud E: Gergia Andrew Cxhall E: Germany Jchen Pampel E: Greece Kntantina Paalari E: Hungary Gabr Cerhati E: India Arvind Sharma E: Indneia Iwan Atmawidjaja E: c.id Ireland Ein O Lideadha E: Irael Oren Grupi E: Italy PierMari Barzaghi E: Japan Yhitake Funakhi E: jp.kpmg.cm Kazuhik Sait E: cm Kazakhtan Alun Bwen E: Luxemburg Jane Wilkinn E: Malayia Lamang Hewlee E: Malta Jianne Briffa E: mt Mexic Jeu Gnzalez E: cm.mx Netherland Bernd Hendriken E: New Zealand Jamie Sinclair E: Nigeria Dimeji Salaudeen E: ng.kpmg.cm Nrway Jan-Erik Martinen E: n Philippine Henry D. Antni E: Pland Krzyztf Radziwn E: Prtugal Critina Tmé E: Rmania Gherghita Diacnu E: Ruia Igr Krtetkiy E: Singapre Sharad Smani E: cm.g Slvakia Quentin Crley E: Suth Africa Neil Mrri E: Suth Krea Sungw Kim E: Spain Je Lui Blac Vazquez E: Sri Lanka Ranjani Jeph E: Sweden Åe Bäcktröm E: Switzerland Han-Ulrich Pfyffer E: Taiwan Charle Chen E: Thailand Paul Flipe E: U.A.E. Sudhir Arvind E: U.A.E. and Oman (Lwer Gulf) Andrew Rbinn E: UK Vincent Neate E: c.uk Ukraine Olena Makarenk E: US Jhn R Hickx E: Venezuela Je O. Rdrigue E: Vietnam Jnathan Levitt E: vn kpmg.cm The infrmatin cntained herein i f a general nature and i nt intended t addre the circumtance f any particular individual r entity. Althugh we endeavr t prvide accurate and timely infrmatin, there can be n guarantee that uch infrmatin i accurate a f the date it i received r that it will cntinue t be accurate in the future. N ne huld act n uch infrmatin withut apprpriate prfeinal advice after a thrugh examinatin f the particular ituatin KPMG Internatinal Cperative ( KPMG Internatinal ), a Swi entity. Member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent firm are affiliated with KPMG Internatinal. KPMG Internatinal prvide n client ervice. N member firm ha any authrity t bligate r bind KPMG Internatinal r any ther member firm vi-à-vi third partie, nr de KPMG Internatinal have any uch authrity t bligate r bind any member firm. All right reerved. The KPMG name, lg and cutting thrugh cmplexity are regitered trademark r trademark f KPMG Internatinal. Deigned by Evalueerve. Publicatin name: Expect the Unexpected: Building buine value in a changing wrld: Executive Summary Publicatin number: A Publicatin date: February 2012

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