NOAA: National Weather Service. Advances in Hydrologic Forecast and Flood Warning Services

Transcription

1 NOAA: National Weather Service Advances in Hydrologic Forecast and Flood Warning Services Edward Clark Flash Flood Services Leader Hydrologic Services Branch NWS Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services 1

2 Mission National Weather Service (NWS) Mission and Goals NOAA s NWS provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NOAA Weather Ready Nation Objectives Reduced loss of life, property, and disruption from high-impact events. Improved freshwater resource management Improved transportation efficiency and safety Healthy people and communities due to improved air and water quality services A more productive and efficient economy through environmental information relevant to key sectors of the U.S. economy services. 2

3 Floods versus Flash Floods River Flood River rises to flood stage over many hours or days (> 6 hours from causative event) Longer lasting events Hydrometeorological event Flash Flood Quick responding streams and rivers (impacts of flooding in < 6 hours after the causative event) Typically a meteorological event resulting from heavy rainfall, although can be the result of a dam break, levee failure, or ice jamming 3 America s NOAA National Weather Service: 3 Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and A Way of Life

4 NWS Operational Infrastructure 4

5 Hydrologic Services Roles and Responsibilities NCEP Centers Nation Guidance and Analysis Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ACUS3 KMKC SWOMCD MKC MCD OKZ SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0353 FOR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL... RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A 50 MILE WIDE BAND FROM COMANCHE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKC TO OSAGE COUNTY. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY FROM JUST EAST OF LAWTON THROUGH OKC TO JUST WEST OF BARTLESVILLE. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS. 5

6 Hydrologic Services Roles and Responsibilities River Forecast Centers (RFCs) operate, and manage a regional hydrologic model Activities Multi-sensor precipitation analyses Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Hydrologic Modeling at Gauged Points Routine multi-agency collaboration Outputs River forecast guidance (deterministic and probabilistic) with extended service/hours during flood events Flash flood guidance Water supply forecasts 6

7 Hydrologic Services Roles and Responsibilities Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) Local Monitoring and Warning Staffed 24 hours per day, 7 days per week Weather Forecast, and Hazard Warnings including: Flash flood watches and warnings River forecasts and warnings Local outreach and education (SH, hydro focal point, or WCM) Flash flood and River Flood verification (LSRs and Storm Data Reports) Event-based decision support services with Federal, Tribal, State and Local Agencies Web service delivery. WGUS42 KTAE FLWTAE FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 919 AM EST TUE DEC OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR CONCORD AFFECTING GADSDEN AND LEON COUNTIES...MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING...FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE... SAFETY MESSAGE...ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN. FLC /O.CON.KTAE.FL.W T0000Z T0000Z/ /CONF1.2.ER T0846Z T1401Z T0000Z. UU/ 919 AM EST TUE DEC OBSERVED FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY... THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR CONCORD. * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 9:01 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.2 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 30.0 FEET. $$ 7

8 The Warning Process Observe, monitor, detect, forecast and generate warning Respond Disseminate warning 8

9 Product Dissemination Internet ( NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Emergency Managers Weather Information Network NOAA Weather Wire Service NOAAPORT Emergency Alert System (EAS) Broadcast by local Media Partners 9

10 Partnerships Promoting Public Safety 10

11 Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Flexible, open modeling architecture linking program elements FEWS Models Models from Federal, State, Local, University and Partners Other Models FEWS FC NWS Models USACE Models Implementation Status: CHPS prototype hardware & software at all 13 RFCs Switched to Operational System on January 13, 2012 Retired legacy NWSRFS system 11

12 Flood Inundation Mapping Services Provide spatial extent and depth of flood waters Display inundation maps for levels from minor flooding through flood of record Better mitigate impacts of flooding and build more resilient communities Libraries include NWS flood severity categories and regulatory FEMA flood frequency maps Implementation Status: 66 Flood Inundation Map Libraries Continued Partnership with FEMA, USACE, USGS, States, & Others water.weather.gov

13 Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) Probabilistic information to support risk-based decisions Seamless short- to long-term HEFS within CHPS Incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties Implementation Status: Demonstrating components of shortterm capability at 6 RFCs Will deploy additional prototypes during the next 2 years Initial version of full capability in

14 Growing Water Challenges Population growth and economic development stress water supplies and increase vulnerability Too Much Changing climate impacts water availability and quality Coastal communities face unprecedented demands to manage threatened water resources and fragile ecosystems Too Little Socio-economic risks of floods and droughts are escalating Poor Quality

15 Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) Integrate information and streamline access Share technology, information, models, best practices Develop system interoperablity and data synchronization Create a Common Operating Picture Increase Accuracy and Timeliness of Water Information Provide new Summit-to-Sea High Resolution Water Resources Information and Forecasts NOAA USGS USACE Status: IWRSS MOU National Water Center Ground Breaking National Flood Inundation Mapping Services Projects System Interoperability and Data Synchronization Demonstration 15

16 IWRSS New Digital Information Products Local Information (<1 km 2 ) Summit-to-Sea Precipitation Snowpack Soil Moisture Evapotranspiration Groundwater Surface flow Surface Storage Water Quality Pilot Products - Snowpack Snowfall Snow Depth Water Content Watershed to National Information Snow Temperature Past USGS Water Present IWRSS Future Census Snowmelt

17 NOAA s National Weather Service Forecasting Water from the Summit to the Sea 18