Decomposing General Equilibrium Effects of Policy Intervention in Multi-Regional Trade Models

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1 Decomosng Geneal Equlbum Effects of Polcy Inteventon n ult-regonal Tade odels ethod and Samle Alcaton by hstoh Böhnge ente fo Euoean Economc Reseach (ZEW) boehnge@zew.de and Thomas F. Ruthefod Deatment of Economcs at the Unvesty of oloado uthefod@coloado.edu Abstact Polcy nteventons n lage oen economes do not only affect the allocaton of domestc esouces but change ntenatonal maket ces. The change n ntenatonal ces mles an ndect seconday buden o beneft fo all tadng countes. Ths seconday tems of tade effect may have motant welfae mlcatons: ountes wthout change n domestc olces may nevetheless gan o suffe fom the acton of othe countes; n tun, the may welfae effect of countes ntefeng domestcally may be substantally enhanced o weakened due to ntenatonal sll-oves. Obvously, olcy makes of economes that ae ntegated nto ntenatonal makets have an essental nteest to gan nsghts about the dffeent souces of welfae changes assocated wth domestc olcy changes. In ths ae, we esent a decomoston that slts the oveall welfae effect nto a domestc maket effect holdng ntenatonal ces constant and an ntenatonal maket effect as a esult of changes n ntenatonal ces (tems of tade effect). We demonstate the usefulness of ou decomoston aoach n the context of an emcal welfae analyss of ntenatonal cabon abatement olces. *Helful comments have been ovded by Thomas Osang. one of the vews exessed hee should be attbuted to any of ou emloyes o eseach sonsos.

2 1. Intoducton Polcy measues n lage oen economes not only cause adustments of domestc oducton and consumton attens but affect ntenatonal ces va changes n exots and mots. The changes n ntenatonal ces mly a seconday buden o beneft n addton to the may domestc olcy effect. A lage county could exlot ntenatonal maket owe and nfluence ntenatonal ces at the exense of ts tadng atnes (beggathy-neghbo olcy). ot susngly, olcy makes n oen economes ae concened about the sgn and the magntude of ntenatonal sll-ove effects fom domestc olcy nteventon. The cuent debate on clmate change olcy s an examle whee such concens ase. Develong countes whch have not made any commtment fo domestc emsson abatement fea nevetheless advese economc effects due to the abatement measues of ndustalzed countes. The Kyoto Potocol exlctly eflects these concens n statng that develoed countes...shall stve to mlement olces and measues... n such a way as to mnmze advese effects, ncludng... the effects on ntenatonal tade, and... economc macts on othe Pates, esecally develong countes Pates... (U 1997, Atcle 2, aagah 3). Gven the otental motance of ntenatonal sll-oves ths ae ovdes a decomoston of the total (geneal equlbum) effects assocated wth domestc olcy measues n oen economes. We beak down the total olcy effect fo a sngle county nto a domestc maket effect (. e. domestc adustment holdng ntenatonal ces constant) and an ntenatonal olcy effect (the esdual effect accountng fo changes n the tems of tade). Slttng the total welfae effect nto these comonents conveys motant economc nfomaton as to why a county wll beneft o loose fom adustments n domestc and ntenatonal makets. We llustate the olcy elevance of ou decomoston aoach wth an examle of ntenatonal cabon abatement olces. Based on a lage-scale comutable geneal equlbum model of global tade and enegy use we show that sll-ove effects of domestc abatement olces on ntenatonal makets have motant economc consequences on both abatng and non-abatng egons.. In secton 2 we lay out the decomoston aoach, n secton 3 we descbe the olcy alcaton, and n secton 4 we esent ou conclusons. 1

3 2. Decomoston Aoach The geneal equlbum aoach s an establshed analytcal famewok fo evaluatng the economc mlcatons of olcy nteventon n oen economes (Shoven and Whalley 1992). Its man vtue s the comehensve and (mcoeconomc) consstent smulaton of the dect and ndect effects (feedbacks o slloves) nduced by exogenous olcy changes. Howeve, the nteetaton of geneal equlbum effects as a sum of a numbe of atal effects s dffcult, n atcula f the atal effects wok n ooste dectons. Theefoe, one challenge of geneal equlbum modelng s to ovde decomoston methods that facltate analyss of the vaous souces of total effects such as aggegate welfae changes. In the context of customs-unon fomaton, Hason, Ruthefod and Wooton (1993) esent a decomoston method that slts down the total welfae effect nto two comonents: the consequences of nduced changes n domestc ces (home ce effect); and the effects on ncome of adustments n taff ates and endogenous changes n the atten and volume of tade (taff evenue effect). 1 Huff and Hetel (1996) descbe a decomoston of welfae effects whee changes n welfae ae dectly elated to tax changes nteactng wth equlbum quantty changes. Hee, we show that the welfae effects of any olcy nteventon n lage oen economes can be comosed of a domestc maket effect assumng that ntenatonal ces eman constant and an ntenatonal maket effect as a esult of changes n ntenatonal ces (tems of tade effect). We fomally esent the decomoston aoach along a genec statc mult-egon tade model (RT). Each egon s fnal demand stuctue s otayed by a eesentatve agent who allocates exendtue acoss goods so as to maxmze welfae. The level of nvestment and ublc outut s fxed. Poducton ncooates ntemedate nuts and may factos. Taded commodtes of the same vaety ae dffeentated by ogn (Amngton 1969). The level of aggegate foegn lendng o boowng fo each egon s ket constant. Fo each egon thee classes of condtons chaacteze the comettve equlbum: zeo-oft, maket cleaance, and ncome balance. Assocated wth these condtons ae thee classes of vaables: actvty levels (fo constant-etuns-to-scale fms 1 ), commodty ces and consume ncomes. In equlbum, each vaable s lnked to one condton: an actvty level to an exhauston of oduct constant, a commodty ce to a maket cleaance condton, and a consume ncome vaable to an ncome defnton equaton. In ou algebac exoston, the notaton 1 In a comettve settng we may chaacteze technologes as RTS wthout loss of genealty. Deceasng etuns ae accommodated though the ntoducton of a secfc facto. 2

4 z Π s used to denote the oft functon of secto n egon whee z s the name assgned to the actvty descbng domestc oducton (z=), aggegate mot fomaton (z=) and fnal demand (z=). Dffeentatng the oft functon wth esect to nut and outut ces ovdes comensated demand and suly coeffcents, whch aea subsequently n the maket cleaance condtons. The notatons adoted fo ou algebac eesentaton ae summazed n Table 1. The equlbum condtons ae gven n Table 2. We decomose the economc effects assocated wth olcy changes n oen economes nto a domestc maket effect and an ntenatonal maket effect. The domestc maket effect eflects a small oen economy (SOE) settng whee the level of a egon s mots and exots have no effect on the tems of tade. 2 Algebacally, the SOE secfcaton s dentcal to the RT model fomulaton wth the sole dffeence that ces on ntenatonal makets ae fxed n ntenatonal cuency unts,.e. ces of commodty exoted by egon s ae exogenously gven as x. Foegn closue of the SOE model eques an addtonal condton that states equalty of the value of s mots wth the value of exots. Table 3 ovdes the algebac summay of the SOE module fo each egon of the RT model. Table 1: Summay of notatons fo the genec RT Summay of Denotatons K = 1,.., = 1,..,+K,s = 1,..,T υ ω E umbe of commodtes (sectos) umbe of factos umbe of countes/egons Index fo commodtes (sectos) Index fo commodtes and factos Index fo egon Revenue functon ost functon Pce of domestc outut good ( {1,...,}) o facto ( {+1,..., +K}) n egon Exot ce fo good oduced n egon Pce fo aggegate mot good moted by egon omoste ce fo aggegate household demand n egon Level of oducton fo secto n egon Level of aggegate mots fo secto n egon Aggegate household consumton n egon Endowment of egon wth facto ( {+1,..., +K}) 2 Hence, we can omt exot demand and mot suly functons wthn the algebac model fomulaton. 3

5 Table 2: Algebac Summay of the RT Poducton Π Π Π Summay of RT Equlbum ondtons Zeo oft = + υ(, ) ω ( 1,..., ( K ), 1 Imot aggegate demand = ω ( 1,..., T ) Fnal demand Facto makets Domestc good makets Exot good makets Aggegate mot good makets Budget onstant E = ω ( 1,...,, 1 = =1 = = ( =1 = = + K = + 1 Table 3: Algebac Summay of the SOE Poducton Π =1 T s=1 s E,..., aket cleaance s ) / + + Income balance n ),..., Summay of SOE Equlbum ondtons (" {1,...,T }) Zeo oft = + υ(, ) ω ( 1,..., ( K ), 1 Imot aggegate demand Π = ω ( 1,..., T ) Fnal demand Facto makets Domestc good makets Aggegate mot good makets Budget onstant Foegn closue (BOP) Π L = ω ( 1,...,, 1 = = = ( =1 = w =1 + K = + 1 E,..., aket cleaance ) / + + T = = 1 = 1 s= 1 Income balance s ),..., s ) ) 4

6 The SOE secfcaton allows us to mose any change n ntenatonal ces (tems of tade) aametcally by changng the values fo. Hence, we can easly check the consstency of ou decomoston fo any RT olcy smulaton (countefactual equlbum). We fx ntenatonal ces fo the SOE at the level detemned by the RT countefactual and then ntalze the level values fo SOE vaables usng the RT soluton. Wthout numecal wok we should be able to elcate the RT soluton fo any county fom an SOE esectve. 3 Havng assed the consstency check we can use the SOE famewok n ode to decomose the total RT olcy effect nto a domestc maket effect and an ntenatonal maket effect. omutaton of the domestc maket effect smly eques that we kee the ntenatonal ces at the benchmak (efeence) level and then mose the domestc olcy change on the secfc county. 4 When we mose aametcally the changes n the tems of tade as calculated by the RT countefactual we elcate the RT soluton usng the SOE famewok. Obvously, the ntenatonal maket effect s equal to the dffeence between the total (geneal equlbum) olcy effect and the domestc maket effect. Fgue 1 llustates the stes nvolved n the decomoston ocedue. Fo the ntemedate SOE equlbum calculaton (A B), the domestc maket has no effect on ntenatonal ces. Imosng the changes n tems of tade (ntenatonal maket effect) whch ae delveed by the mult-egon comutaton (A ), we exactly eoduce the RT soluton fom the SOE esectve (B ). Of couse, the RT-SOE decomoston allows to measue the ntenatonal maket effect seaately by commodty. We smly aameteze the SOE model wth the ntenatonal ce fo that commodty usng the RT famewok. We then can measue how the change n tems of tade fo the secfc commodty affects economc efomance n the small oen economy. Ths ocedue s equvalent to the standad elcaton check fo calbated models. By defnton, the domestc maket effect must be zeo fo any county whee no domestc olcy change ales

7 ult-regon Tade (RT) Baselne Equlbum A RT calculaton of full (geneal equlbum) olcy effects Full Polcy Effect (Domestc aket Effect & Intenatonal aket Effect) Domestc aket Effect Intenatonal aket Effect Small oen economy (SOE) calculaton of olcy effects fo baselne tems of tade (A) B Small Oen Economy (SOE) equlbum SOE calculaton fo domestc olcy nteventon wth RT tems of tade (mosed fom ) RT equlbum afte olcy change (countefactual) Fgue 1: Decomoston ocedue 3. Polcy Alcaton: Decomosng the Welfae Effects of the Kyoto Potocol The Kyoto Potocol to the Unted atons Famewok onventon on lmate hange (U 1997) fxes legally bndng quantfed geenhouse gas emssons lmtaton and educton obectves (QELROs) fo Annex B ates. 5 On aveage Annex B ates have commtted themselves to educe geenhouse gas emssons by 5.2 % fom 1990 levels n the budget eod 2008 to 2012 but QELROs acoss Annex B ates dffe. 5 Annex B countes nclude ndustalzed countes and countes wth economes n tanston, such as Easten and ental Euoe and the states of the fome Sovet Unon. 6

8 Table 4: Quantfed Emssons Lmts unde the Kyoto Potocol (U 1997) ounty o Regon Label ommtments (Pecentage of 1990 Base ea Geenhouse Gas Emssons) Unted States of Ameca USA 93 anada A 94 Euoean Unon EUR 92 Jaan JP 94 Fome Sovet Unon FSU 100 Othe OED OOE 107 The develong countes have efused so fa any abatement commtment. The eason s that they fea negatve effects of emssons lmtaton on the economc develoment and demand may acton by the develoed wold wth lage hstocal and cuent emssons. et, unlateal adustment to emsson estctons n the develong wold wll oduce seconday slloves to ntenatonal makets and affect the develong countes though changes of ntenatonal ces. The otental motance of these ntenatonal maket effects (tems of tade effects) have been ecognzed wthn the Kyoto Potocol (U 1997, Atcle 2, aagah 3). In the context of ntenatonal buden shang, the quantfcaton of the sgn and magntude of the seconday tems of tade effect at the egonal level aeas to be hghly olcy elevant. A. odelng Famewok The analytcal famewok we use s a statc 7-secto, 12-egon geneal equlbum model of the wold economy. 6 The sectos n the model have been chosen to kee the most cabon ntensve sectos as seaate as ossble n the avalable data. 7 The egonal aggegaton coves the Annex-B ates as well as mao non-annex-b egons whch ae cental to the geenhouse gas ssue. Table 5 summazes the 7 sectos and 13 egons ncooated n ou model. Pmay factos nclude labo, catal and fossl-fuel esouces. Labo and catal ae ntesectoally moble wthn a egon but cannot move between egons. Fossl-fuel esouces ae secfc to fossl fuel oducton sectos n each egon. 6 Hence, we gnoe otentally motant macts of cabon abatement on the level and atten of nvestment acoss countes. The model ovdes athe consevatve estmates of the cost of abatement because we would exect that cabon emsson lmts wll educe the etun to catal and esult n lowe oveall GDP gowth n the Annex B countes. 7 Ths ensues a best-guess aoxmaton of dffeences n cabon ntenstes, the scoe fo substtutablty acoss cabon-ntensve goods and hence the otental fo tems of tade effects tggeed by cabon abatement olces. 7

9 Table 5: Ovevew of sectos and countes/egons (data base: GTAP 3.0; see cdougall 1997) Sectos Regons Label Long name Label Long name OL oal USA Unted States RU ude ol A anada GAS atual gas EUR Euoe ROP Refned ol oducts JP Jaan ELE Electcty OOE Othe OED EIS Enegy-ntensve sectos FSU Fome Sovet Unon Othe manufactues and sevces EA ental Euoean Assocates H hna (ncludng Hong Kong and Tawan) BRA Bazl ID Inda ASI Othe Asa P exco and OPE ROW Rest of Wold Poducton of commodtes (ROP, ELE, EIS, ) othe than fossl fuels s catued by an aggegate oducton functon whch chaactezes technology though tansfomaton ossbltes on the outut sde and substtuton ossbltes on the nut sde. On the outut sde oducton s slt between goods oduced fo the domestc makets and goods oduced fo the exot maket subect to a constant elastcty of tansfomaton. On the nut sde constant elastcty of substtuton (ES) cost functons wth thee levels ae emloyed to secfy the KLE substtuton ossbltes n domestc oducton between catal, labo, enegy and mateal (non-enegy) ntemedate nuts. At the to level non-enegy nuts ae emloyed n fxed ootons wth an aggegate of enegy, catal and labo. The mateal nut of good n secto coesonds to a ES Amngton aggegate of non-enegy nuts fom domestc oducton and moted vaetes. At the second level a ES functon descbes the substtuton ossbltes between the enegy aggegate and the aggegate of labo and catal. Fnally, at the thd level catal and labo tade off wth a constant elastcty of substtuton. As to the fomaton of the enegy aggegate we allow suffcent levels of nestng to emt substtuton between may enegy tyes as well as substtuton between a may enegy comoste and seconday enegy,.e. electcty. In oducton of fossl fuels (RU, GAS, OA) labo, catal and fossl fuel nuts ae aggegated n fxed ootons at the lowe nest. At the to level ths aggegate tades off wth the secto-secfc fossl-fuel esouce at a constant elastcty of substtuton. The latte s calbated to be consstent wth exogenously gven ce elastctes of fossl fuel sules. 8

10 Fnal demand n each egon s detemned by a eesentatve agent who s maxmzng hs utlty subect to an ncome balance constant wth fxed nvestment. Total ncome of the eesentatve household conssts of facto ncome and taxes 8. Fnal demand of the eesentatve agent s gven as a ES comoste whch combnes consumton of an enegy aggegate and a non-enegy consumton bundle. Substtuton attens wthn the nonenegy consumton bundle ae eflected va obb-douglas functons wth an Amngton aggegaton of mots and domestc commodtes. The enegy aggegate n fnal demand conssts of the vaous enegy goods tadng off at a constant elastcty of substtuton. All commodtes ae taded ntenatonally. ude ol and coal ae moted and exoted as a homogeneous oduct, subect to taffs and exot taxes. Fo all othe commodtes we adot the Amngton assumton of oduct dffeentaton wth an exlct eesentaton of blateal tade flows. B. Paametezaton: Base ea albaton and Fowad Poecton The economc effects of the Kyoto Potocol deend cucally on the extent to whch QELROs bnd the economes n the budget eod. In othe wods, the magntude and dstbuton of costs assocated wth the mlementaton of futue emsson constants deend on the Busness-as-Usual (BaU) oectons fo GDP, fuel ces, enegy effcency movements, etc. In ou comaatve-statc famewok we nfe the BaU stuctue of the model s egons fo 2010 usng most ecent oectons on the economc develoment. We then measue the costs of abatement elatve to that baselne. As a statng ont fo ou fowad oecton we use the GTAP 4 database (cdougall 1997) and OED/IEA enegy statstcs (IEA 1996) fo 1995 whch s the most ecent yea fo whch a comlete set of statstcs ae avalable. 9 We use the econclated benchmak data fo ths yea to calbate aametes of the ES functonal foms fom a gven set of quanttes and ces (gven exogenous elastctes). In a second-ste we do the fowad calbaton of the 1995 economes to 2010 based on baselne estmates by the U.S. Deatment of Enegy (DOE 1998) fo GDP gowth, enegy demand and futue enegy ces.. Polcy Imlementaton and omutatonal Results Ou comaatve-statc model measues the costs of mlementng Kyoto as comaed to a BaU efeence ont n 2010 whee no emsson abatement equements exst. In the olcy smulaton Annex B countes aly 8 In the benchmak the model ncludes taxes on outut, ntemedate nuts, exots and mots as well as on fnal demand. 9 See Babke and Ruthefod (1997) fo the assembly and econclaton of these data souces. 9

11 domestc cabon taxes whch ae suffcently hgh to meet the ndvdual Kyoto commtment. Revenues fom cabon taxaton ae ecycled lum-sum to the eesentatve agent n each egon. Emsson Reducton Requements and agnal Abatement osts Lke non-annex B egons whch have not acceted any lmtaton of the futue emssons at all FSU does not face a bndng cabon constant. Whle FSU has commtted to stablze ts emssons n the budget eod at 1990 emsson levels, ts BaU emssons n 2010 stay fa below the Kyoto taget (see Table 6). The low emsson baselne s due to the sha economc ecesson between 1990 and 2000 ont wth exogenous autonomous enegy effcency movements ove the next decade. Fo all OED countes the Kyoto tagets ae bndng whch mles the moston of domestc cabon taxes. Table 6 shows that the magnal abatement costs assocated wth the Kyoto commtments ae substantal angng u to 300$US e metc ton of cabon fo the case of JP. The tax ates eflect the fact that the Kyoto tagets whch aea modest wth esect to 1990 emsson levels tanslate nto much hghe effectve cutback equements fo OED countes wth esect to the BaU emsson levels n Fo examle, OOE s allowed to ncease emssons by 7% ove 1990 levels unde the Kyoto Potocol; nevetheless, ths mles an effectve abatement of moe than 15% n ts BaU emssons by The level of abatement s a key detemnant of the magnal abatement costs. The futhe out we ae on the abatement cost cuve the moe costly t gets to substtute away fom cabon n oducton and consumton. Aat fom the abatement level the magnal abatement costs deend to a lage extent on dffeences n cabon ntensty fo dffeent sectos acoss countes. Fo examle, JP faces much hghe cabon taxes comaed to USA to acheve an almost dentcal elatve cutback of cabon emssons. Ths s because JP uses elatvely lttle cabon n sectos wth low-cost substtuton ossbltes, n atcula electcty geneaton (due to nuclea owe). As a consequence JP has to cut back elatvely moe emssons n othe sectos such as taffc whee abatement comes moe costly. Table 6: Effectve emsson cutback equements and magnal abatement costs (cabon taxes) n utback abon tax (n % fom BaU) (US$ e metc ton of cabon) USA A EUR JP OOE FSU

12 Welfae osts The tax-nduced eallocaton of esouces such as fuel shftng o enegy savngs causes effcency costs whch tanslate nto a loss n eal ncome fo households. To gan futhe nsghts nto the dffeent souces of welfae changes assocated wth the mlementaton of the Kyoto Potocol we make use of ou decomoston method. olumn IE of Table 7 eots the aggegate ntenatonal maket effect whch togethe wth the domestc maket effect DE yelds the total olcy effects as stated by column TPE of Table 7. We see that unlateal abatement of Annex B ates oduces sgnfcant seconday tems of tade effects whch affect both abatng Annex B and non-abatng develong countes. 10 The ntenatonal sll-oves nduce substantal welfae losses fo FSU as well as P and a athe small loss fo ROW. All othe non-abatng countes beneft to vayng extents fom the changes n ntenatonal ces assocated wth cabon abatement n OED countes. As to abatng OED countes the decomoston conveys addtonal nfomaton on the sgn and magntude of the may and seconday effect. We see that ntenatonal sll-oves ae negatve fo USA, A and OOE wheeas EUR and JP beneft fom the adustments on ntenatonal makets. Table 7: Decomoston of welfae effects Hcksan equvalent vaaton n ncome (% change fom BaU) DE WKT EE TPE IE USA A EUR JP OOE FSU EA H ID BRA ASI P ROW DE: domestc maket effect WKT: welfae change ncludng DE and tems of tade effects on coal and cude ol makets EE: welfae change ncludng DE and tems of tade effects on all enegy makets TPE: total (geneal equlbum) olcy effect IE: ntenatonal maket effect 10 Of couse, the seconday beneft o buden s dentcal to the total (geneal equlbum) effect fo those countes whch do not undetake domestc acton (.e. the may effect s zeo). 11

13 To exlan the natue of the seconday welfae benefts o losses acoss countes we aly ou decomoston method subsequently fo vaous ntenatonal makets. olumns DE though TPE of Table 7 summaze how the domestc maket effect evolves towads the full olcy effect fom the SOE esectve when we swtch on successvely changes n ntenatonal ces detemned by the RT countefactual soluton. ost motant ae the sll-ove effects assocated wth the adustments on ntenatonal coal and gas makets whch ae teated as homogeneous goods (olumn WKT ). The cutback n demands fo fossl eneges fom abatng OED countes deesses the ntenatonal ces fo ol and n atcula fo cabon-ntensve coal. As a consequence countes whch ae net mote of gas and ol wll gan wheeas net exotng countes wll loose. Table 8 ovdes a summay of the BaU net tade oston n coal and cude ol acoss countes. Table 8: Tade Poston on oal and ude Ol akets oal ude Ol USA ex m A ex m EUR m m JP m m OOE ex m FSU m ex EA ex m H m m ID m m BRA m m ASI m m P ex ex ROW ex ex ex: net exote m: net mote Fo A and P whch ae net exote of both coal and cude ol the aggegate welfae effect s unambguously negatve. Lkewse net motes EUR, JP, H, ID, BRA and ASI exeence welfae gans. Fo countes, whch ae net mote of one homogeneous fossl fuel and net exote of the othe homogeneous fossl fuel, the aggegate effect deends on exot and mot quanttes as well as the elatve changes n ntenatonal coal and cude ol ces. FSU, fo examle, looses moe on the cude ol exot sde than t benefts on the coal mot sde. hanges n tems of tade fo the othe enegy goods (electcty, efned ol, and gas) cause welfae losses fo Annex-B countes 11 wheeas the develong countes excet fo ASI and P beneft (see above olumn EE of 11 The one exceton s Jaan whee electcty geneaton s manly based on nuclea owe. 12

14 Table 7 ). The man eason s that OED countes loose comettveness n electcty geneaton and ol ocessng due to the moston of hgh cabon taxes. 12 Fnally, we account fo changes on the non-enegy makets to elcate the RT countefactual soluton. On these makets, develong countes face advese sll-ove effects. Due to oduct heteogenety, abatng OED countes can ass on at of the cost ncease n domestc oducton to non-abatng tadng atnes. Tax buden shftng occus not only between abatng and non-abatng countes but also among abatng OED countes, whch ae tycally lage tadng atnes. Ths exlans the welfae losses fo OOE whch has the lowest cabon taxes and tades ntensvely wth othe abatng countes wth hghe cabon taxes, n atcula Jaan. In nta-oed tade, OOE s theefoe athe a tax buden mote than a tax buden exote. It should be noted that the alcaton above seves maly llustatve uoses wth esect to ou decomoston aoach. Befoe dawng olcy conclusons a comehensve senstvty analyss wth esect to key aametes (e.g. elastctes, oectons of GDP o enegy demand) would be necessay. 4. onclusons We esented a decomoston of geneal equlbum effects nduced by olcy nteventon n tade models. When natonal economes ae lnked though ntenatonal tade, adustments of economc actvtes n one county wll sll ove to othe countes va changes n exot and mot quanttes. The assocated changes n ntenatonal ces mles an ndect seconday buden o beneft fo all tadng countes. Ou decomoston slts the oveall welfae effect nto a domestc maket effect holdng ntenatonal ces constant and ntenatonal maket effects as a esult of changes n ntenatonal ces (tems of tade). Decomosng the oveall welfae effect nto these comonent ats conveys motant economc nfomaton as to why a county wll beneft o loose fom adustments on ntenatonal makets. Ou decomoston eesents a geneal concet, s ntutvely aealng, and ts numecal mlementaton wthn the GE famewok s staghtfowad. We demonstated the usefulness of ou decomoston aoach n the context of an aled welfae analyss of ntenatonal cabon abatement olces. The decomoston mght not only be used fo a moe thoough undestandng of the aggegate geneal equlbum effects mled by olcy nteventon n oen economes. At the olcy level, consstent cost estmates 12 The welfae losses fo P, ASI and FSU ae elated to the decease n demand and ces fo the gas exots. 13

15 on ntenatonal sll-oves consttute an motant cteon fo evaluatng the effects of domestc olces n the ntenatonal context. Infomaton on the magntude and dstbuton of seconday benefts o costs fom olcy nteventon could, fo examle, nfluence ntenatonal olcy ageements wth esect to the desgn of equtable tansfe systems. Refeences Amngton, P.S. (1969), A Theoy of Demand fo Poducts Dstngushed by Place of Poducton, IF Staff Paes 16, Babke,. and T.F. Ruthefod (1997), Inut-Outut and Geneal Equlbum Estmates of Emboded abon: A Dataset and Statc Famewok fo Assessment, wokng ae 97-2, Unvesty of oloado, Boulde. DOE (1998), Deatment of Enegy, Annual Enegy Outlook (AEO 1998), Enegy Infomaton Admnstaton htt:// Hason, G.W., Ruthefod, T.F. and I. Wooton (1993), An altenatve welfae decomoston fo customs unons, anadan Jounal of Economcs,4, Huff, K.. and T.W. Hetel (1996), Decomosng Welfae hanges n the GTAP odel, GTAP Techncal Pae o. 5, Pudue Unvesty, West Lafayette. cdougall, R.A. (1997), ed., Global Tade, Assstance and Potecton: The GTAP 3 Data Base, ente fo Global Tade Analyss, Pudue Unvesty, West Lafayette. IEA (1996), Intenatonal Enegy Agency, Enegy Pces and Taxes / Enegy Balances of OED and on-oed countes, Pas: IEA ublcatons. Shoven, J.B. and J. Whalley (1992), Alyng Geneal Equlbum, ambdge Unvesty Pess. U 1997, Unted atons, Kyoto Potocol, F/P/1997, Geneva. 14

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