Umm Al Houl Independent Water and Power Project

Transcription

1 Umm Al Houl Independent Water and Power Project July 2015 Umm Al Houl Power Company

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3 Umm Al Houl Independent Water and Power Project PHR 00 A C:\Users\sil57004\AppData\Roaming\OpenText\OTEdit\EC_MESAPiMS\ c \ UaH Carbon July 2015 Umm Al Houl Independent Water and Power Project July 2015 Umm Al Houl Power Company Mott MacDonald, Al Hashmi Tower, Airport Road, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates T +971 (0) F +971 (0) W

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5 Issue and revision record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description A 25/06/2015 James Peet Terry Ellis Mark Silverton Gordon Clamp 1 st draft Information Class: Secure This document is issued for the party which commissioned it and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or used for any other purpose. We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this document being relied upon by any other party, or being used for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties. This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it. Assessment_Draft ms v2 updated.docx

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7 Contents Chapter Title Page 1 Introduction Overview General approach International Finance Corporation Standards and Guidelines Scope Sources considered 2 2 Current Policy and Emissions Overview The Kyoto Protocol Greenhouse gas emissions 3 3 Methodology Overview Calculation methodology Fuel combustion GHG emissions Grid emissions Construction phase Scenarios Inputs Assumptions 7 4 Calculation of Emissions Estimate of GHG emissions Summary of potential GHG emissions Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Summary 10 6 References 11 Assessment_Draft ms v2 updated.docx

8 1 Introduction 1.1 Overview This assessment considers potential emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) associated with the operation of the Umm Al Houl IWPP project (hereafter referred to as the Project ). The assessment estimates the contribution to GHGs as a result of construction and the combustion of fuel to provide 2,520MW of power and 136.5MIGD of net capacity for desalination. 1.2 General approach International Finance Corporation Standards and Guidelines Performance Standard 3 of the 2012 edition of the IFC Sustainability Framework (Ref 1) states that projects that are expected to or currently produce more than 25,000 tonnes of CO 2 e annually will quantify GHG emissions in accordance with internationally recognised methodologies and good practice. In addition, Table 4 of the IFC Environmental, Health and Safety Guidelines for Thermal Power Plants (Ref 2) presents typical CO 2 emissions performance for power plants. The Guidelines state that for a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) the typical net efficiency is around 54-58% and should produce around gCO 2 per kwh on a net LHV basis. The World Bank has also published a Guidance note: greenhouse gas accounting for energy investment operations in 2013 (Ref 3). This outlines the considerations that should be given to establishing the potential impact of new power projects. This guidance has been considered in this assessment. National grid average emissions from the production of electricity in Qatar have been referenced from the World Resources Institute and World Business Council for Sustainable Development s Greenhouse Gas Protocol calculation tool GHG emissions from purchased electricity (Ref 4) in order to provide context for the project at the national level Scope The assessment considers emissions relating to combustion of fuel from a new combined-cycle gas turbine power plant. During operation, the Project will consist of six gas turbine generators, four steam turbine generators and a desalinisation plant. A comparison of the Project s GHG emissions has been made to the typical average emissions from electricity production from the national grid for the same electrical output and against typical CO 2 emissions from new thermal power plants as described by the IFC. All fossil fuels produce GHGs during combustion. The mass of fuel consumed annually determines the GHG emissions of the project. The amount of these emissions is proportional to the amount of fuel and the carbon-content of that fuel. This report includes a high level assessment of construction phase emissions based on the World Bank s Guidance note: greenhouse gas accounting for energy investment operations (Ref 3). The Guidance note identifies that these emissions are small in comparison to the operational phase, however, for 1

9 completeness construction phase emissions have been included in this assessment based on the guidance note methodology. Other emissions, for example those associated with sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) loss in power transmission equipment, are considered to be very small in the context of other emissions and have not been considered in the assessment Sources considered Two principle source of GHG emissions have been considered in this assessment: Direct emissions from the combustion of natural gas Construction emissions associated with the construction of the plant 2

10 2 Current Policy and Emissions 2.1 Overview The enhanced greenhouse effect is a global process that heats up the earth, whereby the short wavelengths of visible light are radiated by the sun and the re-radiated longer wavelengths (infrared radiation) are absorbed by greenhouse gases and are trapped within the troposphere. Without the existence of GHG it is estimated that the global temperature would be approximately 33ºC cooler making the average global temperature -18ºC. Pre-historic concentrations of GHG have been measured using carbon dating from ice cores and, in more recent times, monitored data. The measurements show that GHG in the atmosphere has varied through the different stages of the Earth s known existence. Increases in GHG since the industrial revolution have grown exponentially causing an increase in the warming potential of the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) does not give rise to local health effects in ambient concentrations, but it is a significant GHG and therefore a contributor to the enhanced greenhouse effect. CO 2 is the most common GHG in the atmosphere although it is not the most potent. The mass of GHG is scaled relative to the mass of CO 2 due to the prevalence of this gas in the atmosphere. The understanding that GHG could eventually lead to rising global temperatures and sea level rise led to the development of the Montreal Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol. The Montreal Protocol banned or limited the emissions of substances, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) that deplete the ozone layer. The Kyoto Protocol sets objectives to limit emissions of GHG by countries agreeing to its terms. 2.2 The Kyoto Protocol Qatar ratified the protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2005 allowing it to join as a non-annex I party. The UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories requires all Parties to submit to the Conference of the Parties an annual national anthropogenic GHG emissions inventory of all GHG not covered by the Montreal Protocol. As a non-annex I Party, Qatar has no commitments to reduce GHG emissions under this protocol. A National Communication was submitted in 2011 which documents Qatar s greenhouse gas inventory in addition to providing information on climate change policy, risks and opportunities. 2.3 Greenhouse gas emissions According to the initial national communication to the UNFCCCs, (Ref 5), Qatar emitted 62.41MtCO 2 e of CO 2 during 2007 (the latest inventory year available) % of this was produced by the oil and gas sector, with the power and water sector producing 26.62% (16.61MtCO2e) (see Table 2.1). In 2007 Qatar generated 19,462GWhs of electricity exclusively from gas. In 2012 this had increased to 34,787 GWhs of electricity still exclusively from gas (Ref 6). In 2007 Qatar s emissions intensity for grid-averaged electricity production (the amount of emissions of CO 2 per kwh of electricity produced) was 0.565kgCO 2 /kwh. This had been reduced to 0.493kgCO 2 /kwh in 2012 (Ref 4). This reflects the nature of Qatar s electricity system which is mainly based on gas power generation. 3

11 Table 2.1: National CO 2e emissions profile for Qatar Sector tco 2e 2007 National total 62,406,545 Oil and gas 31,174,617 Power and water 16,611,469 Road transport 4,553,199 Industrial processes 5,312,667 Waste 413,538 Building industry 3,599,838 Refinery 656,353 Enteric & manure 84,865 4

12 3 Methodology 3.1 Overview This section discusses the methodology for quantifying emissions associated with combustion during the operational phase of the Project and emissions associated with the construction phase. 3.2 Calculation methodology Fuel combustion GHG emissions Emissions from natural gas combustion have been calculated based on the principles of mass balance. The amount of fuel consumed in the plant and the components of the gas are used to calculate the carbon content of the gas. It is then assumed that all of the carbon in the gas is oxidised to CO 2 during combustion Grid emissions The 2012 electricity generation grid emission factor reported by the GHG Protocol (Ref 4) for Qatar was 493gCO 2 per kwh and is the latest available value. The following calculation (Table 3.1) has been used to estimate GHG emissions assuming electricity generated by the Project was generated using the 2012 national grid average emission factor. Table 3.1: GHG emission calculation CO 2 = Project output X Grid emission factor t / y kwh gco 2 per kwh Units CO 2 tonnes per year Project output kilowatt hours Grid emission factor grams of CO 2 per kilowatt hour Construction phase The World Bank s Guidance note: greenhouse gas accounting for energy investment operations (Ref 3) prescribes an emission factor to cover one-off emissions associated with construction works for a power plant project. This is set out as per the equation shown in Table 3.2: Table 3.2: Construction works emission calculation CO 2 = Project output X Emission factor t kw kgco 2e/kW Units CO 2 tonnes Project Capacity MW Emission Factor kilograms of CO 2 per kilowatt capacity 5

13 3.3 Scenarios The project will be comprised of six gas turbine generators, four steam turbine generators and a desalinisation plant. These can be used in different configurations. To assess the quantities of carbon produced under different circumstances, four operating scenarios have been assessed. These scenarios are as follows: Scenario 1) full combined cycle operation at full capacity (100% power, 100% desalination) for 1 year Scenario 2) simple cycle operation at full capacity (100% power, 100% desalinisation) for 1 year Scenario 3) full combined cycle operation at 80% power and 100% desalinisation for 1 year Scenario 4) full combined cycle operation at 55% power and 80% water (only 4 gas turbines running) and 80% desalinisation for 1 year. 3.4 Inputs For the purposes of the fuel combustion element of the calculation, three pieces of input data have been provided: i) natural gas input; ii) the molar proportion of each gas that constitutes the natural gas; and iii) plant output in kw. For grid emissions the grid average of Qatar in kgco 2 e/kwh (see Section and ref 4) has been used in conjunction with the plant output. For construction emissions the emission factor for gas-fired power stations has been taken from the World Bank s Guidance note: greenhouse gas accounting for energy investment operations, (Ref 3) and has been used with plant output capacity. The calculated inputs are given in Table 3.3 to Table 3.5. Table 3.3: GHG calculation inputs Input Value Unit Plant capacity Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Natural gas consumption Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 The molar proportion of each gas that constitutes the natural gas: Nitrogen Methane Ethane Propane 2,520 1,768 2,016 1, MW- kg/s % (mole) 6

14 Table 3.4: GHG calculation inputs for grid emissions Input Value Unit Project Electricity Generation Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 20,160,000 14,147,960 16,128,000 11,088,000 MWh per year Grid emission factor 493 gco 2 per kwh Table 3.5: GHG calculation inputs for construction Input Value Unit Gas power plant emission factor 503 kg CO 2 per kw capacity 3.5 Assumptions This assessment has conservatively assumed the following: One operational year is equal is 8,000 hours All carbon that enters the system will be emitted as CO 2 7

15 4 Calculation of Emissions OverviewThis section presents calculated GHG emissions based on the methodology described in Section Estimate of GHG emissions These calculations are based on the input data listed in Table 3.3 t Table 3.5. Emissions associated with the combustion of natural gas and the GHG emission savings when compared to the national grid average are presented in Table 4.1 and Table 4.2 respectively. For each scenario, it is assumed that the plant would operate in this way for the whole year (equivalent to 8,000 hours). Table 4.1: Calculated project emissions Source Electricity produced MWh MtCO 2e/y Emissions intensity gco 2/kWh Combustion of fuel Scenario 1 20,160, Scenario 2 14,147, Scenario 3 16,128, Scenario 4 11,088, MtCO 2 Construction phase 1.27 Table 4.2: GHG emissions associated with national grid electricity generation Source National grid Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Electricity produced MWh 20,160,000 14,147,960 16,128,000 11,088,000 CO 2 / y Mt Summary of potential GHG emissions Scenario 1 Total emissions associated with the operation of the Project under Scenario 1 are expected to be 7 MtCO 2 e per year. The GHG emissions from the Project represent the equivalent of approximately 42% of the current emissions from Qatar s power and water sector, as presented in Table 2.1. If the power was generated by current electricity generation practices in Qatar, this would produce 9.94 MtCO 2 e. This is 2.94 MtCO 2 e more than estimated would be generated by the Project. The expected emissions from a CCGT power plant are gco 2 per kwh (Ref 2). Based on calculations made in this assessment the Project is expected to produce 347 gco 2 per kwh in Scenario 1. 8

16 This illustrates that the Project would be in line with the typical emission rates presented in the IFC guidance Scenario 2 Total emissions associated with the operation of the Project under Scenario 2 are expected to be 7 MtCO 2 e per year. The GHG emissions from this Project scenario represent the equivalent of approximately 42% of the current emissions from Qatar s power and water sector, as presented in Table 2.1. If the power was generated by current electricity generation practices in Qatar, this would produce 6.97 MtCO 2 e. This is 0.02 MtCO 2 e less than estimated would be generated by the Project. According to the IFC Guidelines, the expected emissions from a simple cycle power plant are gco 2 per kwh (Ref 2). Based on calculations made in this assessment the Project is expected to produce 495 gco 2 per kwh under Scenario 2. This illustrates that the Project would be in line with the typical emission rates presented in the IFC Guidance (less efficient than combined cycle) Scenario 3 Total emissions associated with the operation of the Project under Scenario 3 are expected to be 6.31 MtCO 2 e per year. The GHG emissions from this Project scenario represent the equivalent of approximately 38% of the current emissions from Qatar s power and water sector, as presented in Table 2.1. If the power was generated by current electricity generation practices in Qatar, this would produce 7.95 MtCO 2 e. This is 1.64 MtCO 2 e more than estimated would be generated by the Project. The expected emissions from a CCGT power plant are gco 2 per kwh (Ref 2). Based on calculations made in this assessment the Project is expected to produce 391 gco 2 per kwh under scenario 3. This illustrates that the Project would be slightly higher than the typical emission rates presented in the IFC Guidance, since some of the produced heat would be used in the water production process, which is not accounted for in the IFC typical rates Scenario 4 Total emissions associated with the operation of the Project under Scenario 4 are expected to be 4.51 MtCO 2 e per year. The GHG emissions from this Project scenario represent the equivalent of approximately 27% of the current emissions from Qatar s power and water sector, as presented in Table 2.1. If the power was generated by current electricity generation practices in Qatar, this would produce 5.47 MtCO 2 e. This is 0.96 MtCO 2 e more than estimated for the Project. The expected emissions from a CCGT power plant are gco 2 per kwh (Ref 2). Based on calculations made in this assessment the Project is expected to produce 406 gco 2 per kwh under Scenario 4. This illustrates that the Project would slightly above the expected emissions intensity. As noted in Scenario 3, this is due to a greater proportion of the heat being used for water production rather than power production. 9

17 5 Summary This assessment has quantified the GHG emissions predicted from the Umm Al Houl IWPP. The project involves construction and operation of a 2,520MW combined-cycle gas turbine plant to produce power and water. The sources of emissions that have been considered are from natural gas combustion during the operational phase of the Project and from the construction phase. The calculations were based on current project data, methodology and emission factors taken from the plant technical specifications and World Bank guidance. This assessment has assessed four scenarios to quantify the emissions associated with the plant running under different circumstances. Scenario 1 is the most likely and represents the normal operational case. The calculated emission under Scenario 1 can be summarised as: The overall GHG emissions from the operational phase are estimated to be 7 MtCO 2 e per year The potential GHG emissions from electricity production by the Project are 2.94 MtCO 2 per year less than if the electricity was generated according to the current national grid average emissions factor The Project is expected to produce 347 gco 2 per kwh, which is typical performance from a new thermal power plant of this type The construction phase emissions were estimated to be 1.27MtCO 2 as a one-off emission source. Over a 30-year project life, this equates to 50,000tCO 2 per year. In other scenarios, the performance remains broadly in line with the typical values presented in the IFC Guidelines, although slightly higher values are observed in Scenarios 3 and Scenario 4 due to a greater proportion of the heat being used to produce water rather than power. 10

18 6 References 1. IFC Performance Standard 3 Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention, January IFC Environmental Health and Safety Guidelines for Thermal Power Plants, December World Bank Guidance note: greenhouse gas accounting for energy investment operations, June GHG Protocol Calculation Tool GHG Emissions from purchased electricity, May Ministry of the Environment State of Qatar Initial National Communication to the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change, IEA Qatar : Electricity and Heat from