DISCLAIMER COPYRIGHT NOTICE EirGrid Plc 2009

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2 DISCLAIMER EirGrid has followed accepted industry practice in the collection and analysis of data available. However, prior to taking business decisions, interested parties are advised to seek separate and independent opinion in relation to the matters covered by the present Generation Adequacy Report and should not rely solely upon data and information contained therein. Information in this document does not amount to arecommendation in respect of any possible investment. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor or participantin Ireland selectricitymarket mayneed. COPYRIGHT NOTICE All rights reserved. This entire publication is subject to the laws of copyright. This publication may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or manual, including photocopyingwithoutthe priorwritten permission of EirGrid. EirGrid Plc 2009 Front coverimage:an aerial photograph of the upper and lower reservoirs atturlough Hill pumped storage station, located inthe Wicklow Mountains.Image provided by ESB Power Generation.

3 FOREWORD EirGrid, as Transmission System Operator (TSO), is pleased to present the2009 Generation Adequacy Report. This report assesses the generation adequacy situation for the period 2010 to Since last year, there has been adramatic change in the economic climate and this has been reflected in a reduction in electricity demand. We forecast that demand will not return to2008 levels until This, coupled with the connection of new generation, improved generator availability, and increased interconnection, means that there is adequate capacity to meet demand in accordance with the loss of load standard over the next seven years. While this is not a guarantee that therewillnot be load shedding, it does mean that theprobabilityis verylow. There has been a major change in the electricity industry in the last 10 years with deregulation, strong growth in demand, divestment of assets, entry by new generators and the successful establishment of Single Electricity Market. In parallel with this, the need to address climate change is driving new targets for renewable and low carbon generation. It is appropriate to consider the future direction of the electricity industry and plan for aplant portfolio incorporating high amounts of renewable generation. EirGrid has anumber of major studies on-going that can input to this. The Facilitation of Renewables study is identifying the dynamic issues associated with operating a power system with high levels of renewable generation, and how to best solve these issues. EirGrid has also commissioned astudy examining generator technologies and plant portfolio option in the longer-term to meet Ireland s need for secure energy at a competitive price with low/zero carbon emissions. I look forward to sharing the results of these studies with everyonein the industry. There is growing interest in developing electricity storage facilities on thepower system, both in Ireland and abroad. EirGrid has addeda special interest section on electricity storage to this year s report.insection 6, different storage technologies are described.we showhow storage can be is utilised on thepower system. Based on an EirGrid study of the operation of varyinglevels of storage on the Irish power system, an illustrative setof results are presented. In the shorter-term, our analysis shows that Ireland will meet its 2010 targets of 15% of electrical energy from renewable sources. EirGrid remains fully committed to its part in delivering40% of electricity generated from renewable sources by Dermot Byrne Chief Executive, EirGrid 1

4 Table ofcontents FOREWORD...1 EXECUTIVESUMMARY INTRODUCTION ADEQUACYASSESSMENTMETHODOLOGY INTRODUCTION ADEQUACYSTANDARDAND CALCULATION METHODOLOGY APPLICATION OF METHODOLOGY INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS DATAFREEZE DEMANDFORECAST INTRODUCTION THE ELECTRICITY FORECAST MODEL RESULTS OF ELECTRICITY FORECAST ENERGY DEMAND PERCAPITA THE PEAK DEMAND FORECAST MODEL PEAK FORECAST RESULTS COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS ANNUAL LOAD SHAPE CHANGESIN FUTURE DEMAND PATTERNS ELECTRICITYSUPPLY INTRODUCTION PLANTTYPES CHANGESIN FULLY DISPATCHABLEPLANT FORECASTS FOR PARTIALLY OR NON-DISPATCHABLE PLANT PLANTAVAILABILITY ADEQUACYASSESSMENTS INTRODUCTION IMPACT OF DEMANDGROWTH IMPACT OF PLANTAVAILABILITY COMPARISON WITH GAR ELECTRICAL STORAGE TYPES OF STORAGE HOW ELECTRICITY STORAGEIS USED ENERGY STORAGEANDTHE IRISH SYSTEM ECONOMICS OF ELECTRICITY STORAGE EIRGRIDSTUDY ON LARGE PUMPED STORAGE KEYMESSAGES APPENDIX 1 DEMANDFORECAST...61 APPENDIX 2 GENERATION PLANTINFORMATION...63 APPENDIX 3 APPENDIX 4 SUPPLEMENTARYNOTESONMETHODOLOGY...70 ADEQUACYASSESSMENTRESULTS

5 List offigures Figure6-6 Figure

6 List oftables TableA-1Electricitydemandgrowthforecastfrom economicandpopulationprojections(basedoncso dataandesriforecasts) TableA-2 Highdemandforecast...62 TableA-3Combinedforecastfor the All-Islandsystem...62 TableA-4Comparisonofthe mediantergrowth forecasts from this year sgar,andgar TableA-5 Historical energyandpeak,withforecastfor2009. Theactualpeakfor2009 will have appearedat the start of theyear the figures here givethe peaks for Winter09/ TableA-6Generationplantcapacity,for thebasecaseassumptions.pleasenote that these capacity figuresareindicativeonly,asadvised bythe generatingcompanies.theydo notnecessarily reflectwhatisinthe generators connectionagreements TableA-7Informationon plant technologyfor fullydispatchableplant...65 TableA-8Existingwindfarms,as of 1October TableA-9Windprojects withasignedconnectionoffer,asof 1October2009, withtheir target connectiondates...69 TableA-10System for LOLE example...70 TableA-11Probability table...71 TableA-12Thesurplusof plantresultingfrom the different scenariosstudied.allfigures aregivenin MWofperfectplant.These scenariosassume thefollowing:

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8 EXECUTIVESUMMARY INTRODUCTION This report is produced in accordance with the requirements of the Electricity Regulation Act 1999 and Statutory Instrument No. 60 of 2005, European Communities (Internal Market in Electricity) Regulations. It sets out estimates of the demand for electricity in the period , the likely production capacity that will be in place to meet this demand, and assesses the consequences in terms of the overall supply/demandbalance. The general form of the document has been approved by the Commission for Energy Regulation. Thisreportsupersedes the previous Generation Adequacy Report METHODOLOGY The methodology adopted is similar to that used in previous reports. Generation adequacy is essentially determined by comparing electricity supply with demand. To measure the imbalance between them, astatistical indicator called the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) is used. When this indicator is at an appropriate level, called the generation adequacy standard, the supply/demand balance is judged to be satisfactory. The accepted generation adequacy standard for Ireland is 8 hours LOLE per year. The studies used for this report show whether there is enough electricity supply to meet the adequacy standard. Specifically, they give the amount of generation required when there isa shortage, or the amount of excess generation when there is asurplus. So, for example, when surpluses emerge in some years, the approximate amount of extra generation capacity that could be removed while still meeting the 8 hour standard is clearlyshown. Currently, limited connection means that Ireland only has formal capacity reliance of 200 MW with Northern Ireland. However by 2013, asecond high capacity transmission link to Northern Ireland should be completed. This enables demand and supply for Northern Ireland and Ireland to be consolidated from 2013 onward. This all-island assessment is carried out againstanagreed all-island security standard of 8 hours LOLE per year. Given the uncertainty that surrounds any forecast of electricity supply and demand, the report examines anumber of different scenarios. It is intended that the results from these scenarios would provide the reader with enough information to draw their own conclusions regardingfuture adequacy. Akey factor in the analysis is the treatment of plant availability. Plant can be out of service either for regular scheduled maintenance or due to an unplanned forced outage. Forced outages have agreater adverse impact on adequacy than scheduled outages, as they may coincide with each other in an unpredictable manner. The modelling technique utilised here takes account of all combinations of forced outages with appropriate probability weights assigned to each. Periods of scheduled maintenance are provided by the generators and are also accounted for. Wind generation requires aspecial modelling approach to capture the effect of its variable nature. The approach used in this study bases estimated future wind performance on historical records of actual wind power output. 6

9 DEMAND FORECAST The Irish economy has undergone adownturn in the past 12 months. This has been reflected in electricity demand figures, which dropped sharply in Based on monthly figures to date, demand in 2009 will be significantly lower than 2008 levels the first yearly drop in electricity usage in decades. An econometric process is used to forecast the future demand for electricity. The energy forecast model is amultiple linear regression model which predicts electricity sales based on changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Personal Consumption of Goods and Services (PCGS), and population. Relating the electricity demand of a country to its economic performance is standard international practice. Three main electricity sales forecasts (high, median and low) are produced for Ireland for the next seven years. Forecasts provided by the Central Bank and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) are used as inputs to the model. 45,000 40,000 All-Island Demand 35, level 30,000 25, LowDemand Median Demand High Demand As would be expected, the demand forecast for this report is very different to that used in GAR The Median forecast does not see an increase on 2008 levels until Similarly, the High and Low demand forecasts do not see an increase on 2008 levels until 2012 and 2014 respectively. The model for calculating yearly peak demand is based on the historical relationships between yearly peaks and total demand. The peak demands therefore show asimilar trend to the totaldemand. ELECTRICITY SUPPLY The assumptions around the generation portfolio are based on responses from the generatorsand connection agreements thatwere inplace at the datafreeze. The next few months will see two large CCGT plants commissioning in Cork. The Aghada and Whitegate units will add 877 MW of exported capacity to the system. The Dublin Waste to Energy plant at Ringsend will add 72 MW by the end of Another Waste to Energy plant in Meath will provide 17 MW. OCGT units at four sites are also due to start operating over the next fewyears, addinga combined 405 MW of exported capacity. 7

10 The new East-West Interconnector will commission in While this will have amaximum export capacity of 500 MW, aprudent assumption of 250 MW has been made for its capacity for the studies in this report. The only change in fully dispatchable capacity in 2009 to date was caused by the closure of the steam turbine in Marina, reducing the capacity there by 27 MW. Following this winter, 219 MW will be decommissioned with the closing of two units at Poolbeg. The end of 2012 will see the removal of 806 MW from the system, as Great Island and Tarbert cease operation. The second high voltage transmission tie-line between Ireland and Northern Ireland will be completed by the end of 2012, enabling aswitch to an all-island assessment for This will combine the total generation for the two regions. Northern Ireland has seen the addition of two 40 MW units at Kilroot this year. A440 MW CCGT is expected to commission at the same location in Three units at Ballylumford will decommission by 2016, leading to a loss of 540MW. The effect all these changes have on the total dispatchable capacity can be seen in Figure 1-2 below. Shortly prior to the publication of this document, connection agreements have been signed for a445 MW CCGT in Louth, a58 MW OCGT in Co. Meath, and a70 MW pumped hydro station in Cork. However, since these were signed outside the data freeze date, they havenot been included in our studies, or in any figures and tables contained in this report The Government of Ireland have set a target of 40% of electricity to be produced from renewable sources by At times of higher demand, it was calculated that this would require approximately 5,800 MW of wind generation to be installed in Ireland by The connection offer process used to connect windfarms to the grid was built around this target, and the assumptions for this report were developed on that basis. However, the change in forecasted demand means that the amount of wind generation required to meet the 40% target by 2020 has now dropped to just over 4,600 MW. This assumes that wind generation has a capacity factor of31%. Two availability forecasts are used in this report. The first is based on the prediction of availability provided by the generators. The second forecast is based on amodel that has 8

11 been developed by EirGrid. This model takes into account the generators forecast as well as factoring in atrend of historical availability across the generation portfolio. It therefore takes account of high-impact, low probability (HILP) events that are not captured in the generators own availability forecast. After dropping steadily in the years up to 2007, plant availabilities have started to rise in the past two years. This level of performance is expected to be maintainedas newer generators get commissioned. ADEQUACY ASSESSMENTS In determining future system adequacy, the impact of varying demand growth and availability was examined. The adequacy position for each of the demand forecasts over the next seven years is shown in Figure 1-3. A positive adequacy situation is seen for all scenariosand all years. 2,000 Great Island Tarbert Ballylumford SteamTurbines 1,500 1,000 AghadaAD2 Edenderry OCGT All-Island System Suir OCGT KilrootCCGT Nore OCGT Cuilleen OCGT EWIC LowDemand MedianDemand HighDemand 9

12 KEY MESSAGES The adequacy situation is strongly positive for the next seven years. Asurplus of at least 700 MW is observed for all scenarios studied for each of the seven years. This is due to new generation commissioning, increased interconnection, improved generator availability, as well asa reductionin demand. Even though there is sufficient capacity to comfortably exceed the standard of 8hours loss of load expectation used, this does not guarantee that load shedding could not occur.it does howevermean thatthe probability of load shedding isvery low. The economic climate has lead to asignificant drop in actual and forecasted demand. The median forecast used in this document does not show an increase on 2008 levels until For the high and low demand scenario an increase on 2008 levels is not seen until 2012 and 2014 respectively. This is due to lower economic activity than previously forecast but also due to a lowerlevel of energy intensityper unit of GDP. This lower energy intensity level is due to greater energy efficiency and amaturing knowledge-based economy. In the long term, there is likely to be greater emphasis on energy efficiency but, for the electricity sector, this will be counter-balanced by greater use of electricity asanenergysource in the transportation and heating sectors. Increased interconnection contributes to the adequacy position. The East-West Interconnector is due to be commissioned in This interconnector will connect the Irishand British transmission systems, and can carry up to 500 MW in either direction. The second high voltage transmission line between Ireland and Northern Ireland is due to be completed by As well as increasing efficiency and stability, this will allow a consolidation of the generation and demand of the two systems for capacity adequacy calculations. Analysis shows that the target of 15% electricity from renewable sources in 2010 will be achieved. This is contingent on at least 120 MW of wind generation connecting during 2010.It is expected that this figurewill be exceeded. 10

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14 1 INTRODUCTION This report is produced with the primary objective of informing market participants, regulatory agencies and policy makers of the likely generation capacity required to achieve an adequate supply and demand balance for electricity for the period up to Generation adequacy is a measure of the capability of electricity supply to meet the electricity demand on the system. The development of new generation capacity and connection to the transmission system involves long lead times and high capital investment. Consequently this report provides informationcovering a seven-year timeframe. EirGrid, the Transmission System Operator (TSO), is required to publish forecast information about the power system, (as set out in Section 38 of the Electricity Regulation Act 1999 and Part 10 of S.I. No. 60 of 2005 European Communities (Internal Market in Electricity) Regulations). This report supersedes the previous Generation Adequacy Report published in December 2008, covering the period 2009 to 2015, and the Update to GAR published in July All input data assumptions have been updated and reviewed. Any changes from the previous report, including those to the input data and consequential results, areidentified and explained. This report is structured as follows. Section 2 outlines the methodology and security standard employed. This section also includes adescription of the methodology adopted when the scope of analysis changes from two systems with limited capacity reliance on each other to an all-island basis. Details of the economic-based median forecast as well as the alternative high and low demand scenarios are given in Section 3. Section 4describes the assumptions in relation to electricity production. Adequacy assessments are presented in Section 5. Section 6examines electrical storage technology and its potential for use in the Irish system. The report concludes with Key Messages in Section 7. Aglossary of technical terms is included at the end of this report, as well as several appendices which provide further detail of the data, results and methodology used in this study. 1 12

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16 Replace with Divider for2adequacyassessment METHODOLOGY 13

17 2 ADEQUACYASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY 2.1 INTRODUCTION In theory, determining system adequacy should simply consist of weighing up electricity supply against electricity demand. In reality, it is more complicated than this. Generators undergo sudden failure, wind generation is uncontrollable and hard to predict, and pumped storage is energy limited. This section gives an overview of the methodology used to calculate system adequacy, and how it dealswith such issues. 2.2 ADEQUACY STANDARD AND CALCULATION METHODOLOGY Generation adequacy is assessed by determining the likelihood of there being sufficient generation to meet customer demand. It does not generally take into account any limitations imposed by the transmission system, reserve requirements or the energy markets. The adequacy model used here estimates the available generation for every half hour of ayear, and compares it to theexpected demand at that period. In practice, when there is not enough supply to meet load, the load must be reduced. This is achieved by cutting off electricity from customers. The Irish system is well supplied and operated, and such loss of load events are practically non-existent 2. In adequacy calculations, if there is predicted to be asupply shortage at any time, there is aloss Of Load Expectation (LOLE) for that period. LOLE can be used to set asecurity standard. The Irish system has an agreed standard of 8 hours LOLE per annum if this is exceeded, it indicates the system has ahigher than acceptablelevel of risk. With any generator, there is always arisk that it may suddenly and unexpectedly be unable to generate electricity (due to equipment failure, for example). Such events are called forced outages, and the proportion of time a generator is out of action due to such an event gives its forced outage rate (FOR). Forced outages mean that the available generation in asystem at any future period is never certain. At any particular time, several units may fail simultaneously, or there may be no such failures at all. There is therefore aprobabilistic aspect to supply, and to the LOLE. The model used for these studies works out the of LOLE for each half-hour period it is these that are then summed to get the yearly LOLE, which is then compared to the 8-hour standard. Figure 2-1 illustrates the effect of LOLE being outside or within standard. With this typical curve, ahypothetical system with 7500 MW of installed capacity meets the standard exactly. However, asystem with just 7250 MW results in 45 hours LOLE per year, and is therefore outside standard and the system is in deficit. Conversely, asystem of 7750 MW experiences an LOLE of 1.5 hours per year and this being well within the standard, means that the system has surplus plant. 2 14

18 System in Deficit hrs/yr= Adequacy Standard System in Surplus InstalledPlant Capacity (MW) The use of deterministic approaches, such as requiring afixed capacity margin (ratio of installed capacity to peak demand), cannot accurately capture the impact of this random behaviour. In addition, LOLE calculations have the advantage of taking the following factors into account: The load at every hour of the year is considered to have an influence on generation adequacy,not just thehours of peak demand. Thenumber and relative sizes of generation units impacton the LOLE calculation.a large number of small units will provide more security than asmall number of large units, other factors being equal. This is due to the fact that the probability of all units failing at oncedecreases asthenumber of individual units increases. 2.3 APPLICATION OF METHODOLOGY On 1November 2007, the Single Electricity Market began trading, incorporating the whole island power system. However, until the second large-scale North-South transmission link is completed, there is atransmission constraint between the two jurisdictions. This must be taken into account when conducting adequacy calculations. After consultation with the CER, it has been agreed that afirm reliance of 200 MW on Northern Ireland can be assumed in adequacy assessments until After that, it is presumed that the North-South transmission link is in place and all transmission constraints are removed. The all-island system can then be assessed as awhole, allowing the complete generation portfolio to meet the combined load demand. This all-island assessment is carried out against an agreed allisland security standard of 8 hours per year 3. The inherently variable nature of wind power makes it necessary to analyse its adequacy impact differently from that of other generation units. The contribution of wind generation to generation adequacy is referred to as the capacity credit of wind. This capacity credit has been determined by subtracting aforecast of wind shalf hourly generated output from the 3 15

19 customer electricity demand curve. The use of this lower demand curve results in an improved adequacy position. The amount of conventional plant which leaves the system with the same improvement in adequacy as the net load curve is taken to be the capacity credit of wind Wind Profile 2006 Wind Profile 2007 Wind Profile 2008 Wind Profile Average Wind Profile 70 MW Installed Wind (MW) Analysis of wind data has established that this capacity credit is roughly equivalent to its capacity factor at low levels of wind penetration. However, the benefit tends towards saturation as wind penetration levels increase. This is because there is asignificant risk of there being very low or very high wind speeds simultaneously across the country. This will result in all wind farms producing practically no output for anumber of hours (note that turbines switch off during very high winds for safety reasons). In contrast, the forced outage probabilities for all thermal and hydro units are assumed to be independent of each other. Therefore,the probability of theseunits failing simultaneously is negligible. The capacity credit of wind will vary from year to year, depending on whether there is alarge amount of wind generation when it is needed most. For the studies in this report, capacity credits were calculated based on annual wind profiles from 2005 to The average values of these were then taken. The four profiles, and their average, are shown in Figure 2-2. It can be seen in Figure 2-3 that there is abenefit to the capacity credit of wind when it is determined on an all-island basis. The reason for this is that agreater geographic area gives greater wind speed variability at any given time. If the wind drops off in the south, it may not drop off in the north, or at the very least there will be atime lag. The result is that the variation inwind is reduced and the reliabilityincreases. 16

20 All-IslandWind ROIWind Capacity Credit (MW) Installed Wind (MW) Historically, generation adequacy has been assessed without reference to any limits that might be imposed by the bulk electricity transport system (the Transmission System). However, if the transmission infrastructure in aregion is insufficient to cope with the flows from generators at certain times, then those generators might be curtailed to match the ability of the transmission lines. This would mean that a generator s output would be constrained. Such asituation might occur if new generation plant were to connect before appropriate deep reinforcement of the transmission system was possible. In this case, the contribution of the new generation plant is reduced. In 2010, two large CCGT plants are commissioning in the Cork region. However, existing infrastructure will be unable to allow all plants in the region to simultaneously export to their full capacity. This has been accounted for in the studies presented in this report. EirGrid stransmission Forecast Statement 4 seeks to identify areas where additional capacity exists on the transmission system, and thus where any new plant would not be constrained by transmission limitations. The pumped storage plant at Turlough Hill operates on adaily cycle, using electricity at night to pump water from alower to an upper reservoir. The potential energy stored as aresult of this pumping is then released to generate electricity during high demand periods. The amount of energy which can be produced during the generation period of the pump storage cycle is largely limited by the physical size of the reservoir. This places alimit on the amount of energywhichcan bestored and then released in any24hour period. The adequacy assessment model (AdCal) does not utilise the full installed capacity (292 MW) of the pumped storage station for every hour of the day because of this energy limitation. 4 17

21 Instead, the model optimises the cycle on adaily basis, so that the energy is used when it is needed most. Pumped storage is discussed inmore detailin section 6.1(a). The base case scenario presented in this report is considered to be the most likely outlook. However, it is prudent to examine the effect other situations would have on adequacy. Studies are therefore carried out on arange of scenarios. These different scenarios are as follows: Demand growth -low and high demand scenarios are also presented, which use the same generation portfolio as in the base case, but different demand forecasts Plant availability variations inplant availability areconsidered Theresultsfrom thesescenariosare presented in section INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS While the use of LOLE allows a sophisticated, repeatable and technically accurate assessment of generation adequacy to be undertaken, understanding and interpreting the results may not be completely intuitive. If, for example, in asample year, the analysis shows that there is aloss of load expectation of 16 hours, this does not mean that all customers will be without supply for 16 hours or that, if there is asupply shortage, it will last for 16 consecutive hours. It does mean that if the sample year could be replayed many times and each unique outcome averaged, that demand could be expected to exceed supply for an annual average duration of 16 hours. If such circumstances arose, typically only asmall number of customers would be affected for ashort period. Normal practice would be to maintain supply to industry, and to use a rolling process to ensure that any burden is spread. In addition, results expressed in LOLE terms do not give an intuitive feel for the scale of the plant shortage or surplus. This effect is accentuated by the fact that the relationship between LOLE and plant shortage/surplus is highly non-linear. In other words, it does not take twice as much plant to return asystem to the 8hour standard from 24 hours LOLE as it would from 16 hours. In the real-time operation of the power system, acombination of events, such as very high coincident scheduled and forced outages, can occur, even though the statistical probability of such occurrences is very small. This can lead to supply shortages during periods when the balance ofprobabilitywould havesuggesteda supply surplus. On the other hand, aperiod for which there is avery high loss of load expectation can pass without failure provided actual conditions are benign, i.e. the dice fall kindly. However, valuable conclusions can be drawn from probabilistic analysis. For example, if LOLE is greaterthan standard, thena higher than acceptablerisk of supply failure is indicated. In order to assist understanding and interpretation of results, afurther calculation is made which indicates the amount of plant required to return the system to standard. This effectively translates the gap between the LOLE projected for agiven year and the standard into an equivalent plant capacity (in MW).If the system is in surplus, this value indicateshow much plant can be removed from the system without breaching the LOLE standard. Conversely, if the system is in breach of the LOLE standard, the calculation indicates how much plantshould be added to thesystem tomaintain security. The exact amount of plant that could be added or removed would depend on the particular size and availability of any new plant to be added. The amount of surplus or deficit plant is therefore given in terms of Perfect Plant. Perfect Plant may be thought of as aconventional generator with no outages. For example, 100 MW of Perfect Plant would be able to supply 18

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