As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality. Texas State Profile. Questions You Should Ask

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1 As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality State Profile Questions You Should Ask How educated is adult population and workforce? How does compare to the national average, the most educated states, and the most educated countries? What are the disparities in educational attainment, participation and completion in higher education, and personal income by gender and race/ethnicity? How is the demographic composition of expected to change? How will expected changes in demography given current disparities in education and personal income affect the overall educational attainment and personal income of? Prepared by the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems with Support from the Lumina Foundation for Education

2 The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality State Profile Racial/Ethnic Composition of Working Age Population (Ages 25 to 64) from 1980 to ,000,000 6,000,000 African-American Hispanic/Latino 5,527,852 5,957,664 5,000,000 4,621,540 Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander 4,000,000 3,000,000 3,062,438 2,000,000 1,909,249 1,000, ,900 1,171, ,258 1,190, ,969 22,940 65,320 33,650 41, ,361 Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds in 2000 (All Races) 45% 4 35% 41.3% WV US Average Highest State 27.8% 29.9% 25% 21.7% 22.4% 24.5% 23.3% 22.3% UT 23.2% 15% 5% 16.1% MS 5.8% 7.2% 11.6% ND 16.8% 17.1% CO 7.9% 9.4% 15.1% MA Less than High School High School/No College Some College Associates Bachelor's Graduate and Professional Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1990 and 2000 Census ) 1

3 Disparities in Educational Attainment by Gender and Race/Ethnicity LEGEND African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds (Working Age) Percent with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census ) Note: Associate Degree Data not Available for Educational Attainment of 25 to 34 Year Olds (The Young Workforce) Percent with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census ) Note: Associate Degree Data not Available for

4 Educational Attainment by Gender and Race/Ethnicity (25 to 34 Year Olds Continued) LEGEND African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander Educational Attainment of 25 to 34 Year Olds (The Young Workforce) Indexed to the Top Country Indexed to the Top Country Percent with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity Indexed to the Top Country Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity Top Country (Canada) 1.0 Top Country (Norway) 0.8 US Index = US Index = WM WF BM BF HM HF NAM NAF APM APF WM WF BM BF HM HF NAM NAF APM APF Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 2000 Census) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Personal Income 1 Personal Income Per Capita as a Percent of the US Average (1960 to 2000) 10 US Average 97.8% 94.2% 85.9% % Source: US Census Bureau s Current Population Survey (1960, 1970, 1980,1990, and 2000) 3

5 Higher Education Participation and Completion by Race/Ethnicity LEGEND African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander Representation (%) of Race/Ethnic Groups at Each Stage of the Education Pipeline (2002) 7 65% 6 55% 54% 54% % % 33% 26% 26% 27% 13 % 13 % 12 % 12 % 3% 4% 5% 6% 5% 3% 3% 1% 18 Year Olds High School Graduates First-Time Freshmen Sources: US Census Bureau (18 Year Olds), Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (HS Graduates), and the National Center for Education Statistics (College Participation and Completion) All Other Undergraduates 13 % Associate Degrees Awarded Graduation Rates by Race/Ethnicity (2002) 8% 18 % Bachelor's Degrees Awarded 10 % All Credentials and Degrees Awarded Actual vs. Parity Difference in the Percentage of Credentials Awarded and the Percentage of 18 Year Olds by Race/Ethnicity (2002) Three-Year Graduation Rates for Associate Students US Average 29.1% 16.7% 14.9% 22.8% -2.6% % -18.6% 19. Six-Year Graduation Rates for Bachelor s Students 0.1% US Average 54.3% 54.2% 2.6% % 36.8% 41.6% Sources: US Census Bureau (18 Year Olds), Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (HS Graduates), and the National Center for Education Statistics (College Participation and Completion) 58.5% Source: National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey) 4

6 The Impact of Changing Demographics on Educational Attainment and Personal Income (2000 to 2020) Projected changes in educational attainment and personal income per capita are based on the US Census Bureau s population projections by age and race/ethnicity and 2000 educational attainment and personal income data by age and race/ethnicity. The analyses are designed to help answer the following question: Given current disparities in educational attainment and personal income by age and race/ethnicity, how will the changing demographics in my state impact the overall educational attainment and personal income of the adult population? 7,000,000 Projected Change in 25 to 64 Year Olds by Race/Ethnicity (from 2000 to 2020) 6,000,000 5,957,664 6,126,069 African-American Hispanic/Latino 5,000,000 4,840,890 Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander 4,000,000 3,000,000 3,062,438 2,000,000 1,000, ,610,867 1,190, , ,361 41,509 44, Changes in Educational Attainment as a Result of the Projected Changes In Race/Ethnicity (25 to 64 Year Olds from 2000 to 2020) 21.7% % 24.4% 23.3% 22.3% Less than High School High School Some College Associates Bachelor s Graduate/Professional 16.8% 15.4% 7.9% 7.3% 5.8% 5.6% Sources: US Census Bureau s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census

7 The Impact of Changing Demographics on Educational Attainment and Personal Income (2000 to 2020) - Continued 1,000,000 Number Change in Adults 25 to 64 by Degree Level from 2000 to ,112 $40,000 Change in Per Capita Personal Income from 2000 to 2020 (In 2000 $) Less than High School High School US Average Top State 800,000 Some College Associates Bachelor s $30,000 $28,932 $27, , , ,751 Graduate/Professional $20,000 $19,663 $21,591 $18,708 $21, , , , , ,165 $10, $ Source: US Census Bureau s Population Projections and Census 2000 Source: US Census Bureau s Population Projections and Census 2000 If Hispanics/Latinos, African-Americans, and Native Americans achieved the same levels of education as s by 2020, personal income would increase by $46.5 Billion (in 2000 $). Note: Does not account for racial/ethnic disparities in personal earnings for the same levels of education. 6

8 The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality Summary From 1980 to 2000, the Hispanic population more than doubled. By 2020, Hispanics and African-Americans will represent roughly half of the total population ages 25 to 64 with both populations projected to grow at much higher rates than s. The workforce has slightly less college degrees than the national average and substantially less than the most educated states. A very high percentage of 25 to 64 year olds (22%) have less than a high school education (third only to Mississippi and California). have made progress in educational attainment relative males but sizable disparities still exist among race/ethnic populations. The difference between the two largest populations ( and Hispanic) is among the largest of any state. Thirteen percent of Hispanics have college degree (associates and higher) compared to 40 percent of s. The education gaps between s and Minority populations is widening not closing. Despite increases in educational attainment for the entire population in, educational attainment among Hispanic males has actually declined over the past 20 years. Only Asians exceed the most educated countries in the percentage of adults (ages 25 to 34) with a bachelor s degree and all college degrees (associate and higher) which is an important consideration in an increasingly global economy. personal income per capita increased from 1990 to 2000 but remains well below the US average. The education system in (from high school to college completion) fails to retain Hispanics and African-Americans at nearly the rate of s and Asians. These racial/ethnic disparities are also evident in the graduation rates of college students particularly at the baccalaureate level. Unless these inequities are addressed, current disparities in educational attainment and the population projections by race/ethnicity indicate that will lose ground in the percentage of its workforce that is college-educated. The most substantial growth will occur in the less than high school population. A similar trend is projected for personal income. personal income per capita will decline relative to other states which will also have a negative impact on the tax base of and its ability to provide services to its citizens namely higher education. Prepared by the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems with Support from the Lumina Foundation for Education 7

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