Regional climate models & Climatology at Météo-France.
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1 Regional climate models & Climatology at Météo-France. Dr Philippe Dandin Direction de la Climatologie Météo-France SEE VCCC RHMSS, Belgrade, Serbia April 2011
2 Climate change, climate, climatology 1. Climate modelling at Météo-France Global, Regional Applications, including LRF 2. RA VI Regional Climate Center, LRF node Status Rationale 3. Past and present climate, keys to the future A link to climatology 2
3 Climate change, climate, climatology 1.Climate modelling at Météo-France Global, Regional Applications, including LRF 2. RA VI Regional Climate Center, LRF node Status Rationale 3. Past and present climate, keys to the future A link to climatology 3
4 CNRM - CM5 for IPCC AR5 GHG Atmosphere ARPEGE-Climat T127L, L31 Surface SURFEX Ozone chem. OASIS 24h 24h 24h 4 Sea ice Ocean NEMO 1, L42 24h Run off TRIP
5 The Arpege Aladin suite: Global to regional models Aladin-climat, LAM Arpege-climat, stretched grid, pole moved 5
6 Regional scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean area ALADIN-Climat v5, MED50, 50 km + SURFEX/ISBA surface-vegetation-hydrology Daily coupling TRIP river model 6 NEMOv2-MED8 10 km S. Somot, CNRM
7 More resolution over France for impacts studies Regionalization s techniques: - Statistical: e.g. weather regimes - Variable mesh global model (stretched grid): Arpege-Climat - LAM, embedded in a GCM: Aladin-Climat - Mix (dynamical / statistical): e.g. Cyprim project Impact of CC in mountains (Scampei project, M. Déqué) - Observation SAFRAN 8 km (8 variables) - Statistical adaptation (quantiles correction, analogues) - Soil/snow/vegetation ISBA / ES - Snow model CROCUS LAM 12 km 7 Global stretched model 50 km
8 Number of days with snow on ground / year Aladin (B1/A1B/A2) Aladin Aladin (B1/A1B/A2) Observations Decrease at all levels Days 8 M. Déqué, CNRM, Scampei
9 Impact of CC on water resource & droughts Evolution of the number of events (ref present climate) Scenarios to force ISBA-MODCOU (8 km) (soil-vegetation-hydrology) Indices: SPI, SSWI Continuous drought > 30 years Evolution of magnitude (ref 21st century climate) Work on water resource seen as a critical need reanalysis 1958-present, daily monitoring, LRF 9 ClimSec project, DClim
10 Climate change, climate, climatology 1. Climate modelling at Météo-France Global, Regional Applications, including LRF 2.RA VI Regional Climate Center, LRF node Status Rationale 3. Past and present climate, keys to the future A link to climatology 10
11 The seasonal forecasting system EuroSip system 3 Since May 2008 Arpege/IFS cycle 24 TL63L31 Ocean ORCA (no sea-ice) 2 x2 Mercator ocean analyses Hindcast Ops: 7 months forecast 41 runs EuroSip system 4 (plan) Based on Météo-France IPCC-AR5 version, compatible with decadal forecasts Arpege/IFS cycle 32 TL127L31 Ocean NEMO 1 x1 + Sea-ice GELATO Mercator ocean analyses Some options remain open till mid-2011 Operational production: mid ,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 20 N-80 N Z500 Scores in Demeter-like hindcasts sys3 p-sys4 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 sys3 p-sys4 0,10 0,10 30 N-30 S T ,00 DJF JJA 0,00 DJF JJA
12 RCC Seasonal Forecasting 1. Glob. Production Center & RA VI RCC co-leader for Long Range Forecasting A monthly set of products 2. Operational interpretation and forecast performance of GPCs products Graphs and Maps of SVS scores; Global Climate Bulletins 3. Tailored products & verification datasets Specific boxes; Circulation regimes; Euro-Sip; GPCs 4. Consensus statements Global Climate Bulletin; Web teleconference (2/year?) RCC elaboration web site 12 J.-P. Céron, DClim
13 Global Production Centre & RCC Products T 2m 13 Rainfall
14 Products: Circulation Regimes Forecast Mode and use Winter 2009 forecasts Mean Anomalies Min Temperatures / Extreme Rainfall Increased Occurrence of NAO regimes 14
15 RCC analysis & elaboration of the Global Climate Bull. Météo-France Consistent signal with a warm Tropical North Atlantic 15 RCC Bulletin ECMWF Good consistency between MF and ECMWF responses to Pacific and Atlantic Tropical forcings: AR predominant
16 Climate change, climate, climatology 1. Climate modelling at Météo-France Global, Regional Applications, including LRF 2. RA VI Regional Climate Center, LRF node Status Rationale 3.Past and present climate, A link to climatology keys to the future 16
17 Downscaling, statistical correction Models processing with the old toolbox: weather regimes, Q/Q Precipitation DEMETER Interpolation Distance 1/r² Vertical gradient T : K/100m Pluie : à 2 mm/an/1m Interpolation on Safran grid - 8km 17 SAFRAN Reference
18 A transition from description to dynamics Daily mean T anomaly (vs ) & weather regimes. 1st Nov 2009 to 28 Jan Winter : Why was it so? And Winter ? Seasonal forecasting also as a mean to train to climate sciences 18
19 Climate change, adaptation, impacts, variability, detection, downscaling, extremes, risks??? A single science Observation are critical & vital. Paris The obs. network Manley Temperature anomalies, D'après les séries de températures De Bilt Paris non moyenné Paris reconstitué 3 We need data, & quality. 2 1 y We need the good old climatology and climate modelling together Data rescue Quality controls Homogenisation Weather regimes 19
20 Thank you CNRM DClim
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