CUTE: Berlin case study

Transcription

1 CUTE: Berlin case study Ambitious policy goals without ambitious policy implementation Wolfgang Schade Institute for Economic Policy Research (IWW) University of Karlsruhe, Germany

2 Structure of presentation Berlin map and history Berlin development in photos Berlin targets of transport policy Berlin trends of passenger modal-split Drivers of modal-split: infrastructure policy, car-ownership, sprawl Emissions Conclusions

3 Berlin map Partially separated between Completely separated Between N Hamburg km Since 1990 joined again 891 km² populated by Mio inhabitants = 37.9 inhabitants/hectar Magdeburg Warsaw Potsdamer Platz Berlin Wall

4 Potsdamer Platz 1924 a central square in Berlin with the highest traffic in Europe and the first traffic light in Germany

5 Potsdamer Platz 1945: Nothing left after the war

6 Potsdamer Platz 1961: Desert between East- and West-Berlin cut through by the new Berlin Wall

7 Potsdamer Platz : The largest construction site in Europe

8 Potsdamer Platz 2003: Within less than 10 years of development now the economic heart of the city

9 Berlin transport policy targets after 1990 Modal-split target for motorized transport: Central area: 80:20 public transport to road Suburban area: 60:40 public transport to road Accessibility targets for public transport To meet environmental standards e.g. EU air pollution and noise, German air pollution and noise

10 Modal-split 1989 for East and West-Berlin Public transport 42.3% Modal-split East-Berlin 1989 (trips-related) W alking & cycling 28.5% Modal-split West-Berlin 1989 (trips related) Public transport 26.8% W alking & cycling 29.2% Road transport 29.2% Road transport 44.0% But despite targets the Berlin modal-split changed within 5 years from 55:45 to 65:35% in favour of road transport. Why?

11 Trends of car-ownership Historic car-ownership in the two Berlins, Hamburg and West-Germany [cars/1000 inhabitants] Total Berlin West-Berlin East-Berlin Hamburg West-Germany Year

12 Investments faster for road transport 100 new road links between East- and West-Berlin in first years after the unification Suburban railway ring needed until 2002 for completion closing all gaps (plan was until 1995) Investments in underground instead of trams or separate bus lanes (unit cost much higher but not reflected in accessibility gains)

13 Strong outward migration since mid 1990ies Migration between Berlin and its Hinterland Persons Hinterland to West-Berlin West-Berlin to Hinterland Hinterland to East-Berlin East-Berlin to Hinterland Year

14 Regional Development Net Migration per Zone 1999 compared to 1990 Population decrease Population increase

15 Trend of CO 2 emissions Development of CO 2 Emissions in Berlin (Index 1990 = 100) Energy (local) Energy (imported) Industry Households Transport Total = 31.2 Mio*t CO 2 Year 1997 = 27 Mio*t CO 2

16 Trend of NOx concentrations [µg/m³] µg/m³ Average City Center Roadside Year

17 Conclusions Despite transport growth air pollution is reduced due to technological progress, fleet renewal and industrial decline. Transport is the only sector that between 1990 and 2000 increased its greenhouse gas emissions. The modal-split target as the major policy target for transport was clearly missed as public transport ridership declined and car usage increased. The reason seems to be that despite of favouring public transport by targets the actual policy implementation was fostering car use e.g. by providing more and faster new road infrastructure, by missing land use planning that fostered urban sprawl. However, it seems that in the most recent years this is recognized and policy changes occured e.g. by introducing integrated land use planning, catch-up of public transport infrastructure, unified ticketing system.

18 Optional slides

19 The new railway system Rostock 48 km Hamburg Airports Hanover Magdeburg Warsaw Lehrter Bahnhof city center Leipzig Prague railway lines

20 The two Berlins: East and West Historic car-ownership in the two Berlins and in Hamburg Partially separated between Completely separated Since 1990 joined again on 891 km² populated by Mio inhabitants = 37.9 inhabitants/hectar [cars/1000 inhabitants] Year West-Berlin East-Berlin Hamburg Population development in Berlin ,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Inhabitants 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Berlin Total West-Berlin East-Berlin 1,000, , Year

21 Trends since reunification Rebuilding of historic center Closing gaps in infrastructure between East and West Start of urban sprawl into small villages => traffic growth on road radials Only moderate traffic growth in central area Industry declined (formerly subsidized in West-Berlin, not competitive in East-Berlin) Development towards a major freight hub did not take place Joint land use and transport planning between Berlin and Brandenburg is just set-up

22 Instruments for transport policy Regional integrated land use and transport planning (Landesentwicklungsplan Berlin-Brandenburg) In general: Push-Pull strategy Push: speed limits on roads, parking restrictions Pull: circle line and closing gaps in PT, unified ticket system for public transport, high accessibility to PT, bike lanes, car-sharing, cash-car, metro-card, call-abike, separate bus lanes, park+ride, consistent public transport plan (Nahverkehrsplan) But also: traffic system management center increasing road capacity

23 Trends for air pollutants NO2, SO2 and dust immissions (µg/m3) CO immissions (µg/m3) Year PM airborne particles (dust) SO2 NO2 CO

24 The full contents together with the list of references will be included in the BOOK which will appear in the end of 2003