Fountain Square. Market Analysis Report Matt Nowlin PLAN 586 Spring 2014

Transcription

1 Fountain Square Market Analysis Report Matt Nowlin PLAN 586 Spring

2 Table of Contents 1. The Neighborhood 3 Overview Basic Demographics 2. Demographic Analysis Demand Analysis..15 Residential Retail Office Hotel 2

3 The Neighborhood Overview and Demographics 3

4 The Neighborhood Fountain Square is 1.5 miles from Monument. The neighborhood is one of six designated cultural districts in Indianapolis. Fountain Square s mini-downtown at Prospect Street and Virginia Avenue is one of Indianapolis only functioning commercial streets in an urban residential area. Monument Circle 70 Washington St English Ave Virginia Ave This working class neighborhood was damaged by the construction of the Interstate, but is fast becoming one of Indianapolis liveliest entertainment areas. 70 Fountain Square Prospect St State Ave Shelby St 65 4

5 Basic Demographics 3,888 total population 1,927 total housing units $28,209 median income 32.4 median age Vacant 25% Owner Occupied 32% Renter Occupied 43% 5

6 Demographic Analysis Context and Peer Communities 6

7 Peer Communities Within Indianapolis Like Fountain Square, these neighborhoods are popular while still being relatively affordable. Each one has a mix of commercial and residential uses and an urban form. Irvington Broad Ripple Mass Ave. Indianapolis Indianapolis Indianapolis The Irvington Historic District features a small commercial corridor along East Washington Street, as well as numerous historic single family homes. Housing inventory in this neighborhood is often larger than in Fountain Square. Broad Ripple has long been popular among college students, young professionals, and young families. It is one of Indianapolis first suburbs and is the steadiest of Indianapolis urban housing markets. Because of its location close to downtown and its quality, urban multifamily housing options, this neighborhood has grown very popular among Indianapolis young professionals. 7

8 Peer Communities Other Midwest Cities While these gentrifying neighborhoods are as varied as their cities, they share traits. Each is still in transition, still affordable, and anchored by a commercial corridor. Pilsen Germantown Over-the-Rhine Chicago Louisville Cincinnati This Hispanic neighborhood on Chicago near-south side is quickly gentrifying. It is known for its street murals, Mexican food, and the National Museum of Mexican Art. The neighborhood was settled by working class Germans in the 1870s. The areas shotgun houses were affordable to working class families and now are popular among a younger, more educated demographic. Long known as one of Cincinnati s roughest locations, Over-the-Rhine is becoming a very desirable neighborhood. Vine Street is the commercial and cultural heart of the area. 8

9 Age Diversity Other Midwest Cities Up-and-coming neighborhoods in other midwest cities have a higher concentration of year olds than Fountain Square.! 1-in-4 residents in Fountain Square are between 20 and 35 years old, compared to more than 1-in-3 residents in Over-the-Rhine and Pilsen Fountain Square Germantown Ages Everyone Else 10 75% 5 25% Over-the-Rhine Pilsen Fountain Square Germantown Over-the- Rhine Pilsen

10 Age Diversity Within Indianapolis Broad Ripple and Mass Ave. have even more extreme concentrations of year olds. Both are popular among college graduates, and the multi-family housing in Mass Ave. attracts households without kids.! Irvington s housing is mostly larger than the starter homes in Fountain Square, making it more popular among people age Fountain Square Irvington Ages Everyone Else 10 75% Broad Ripple 25% 3 2 Mass Ave. Fountain Square Irvington Mass Ave. Broad Ripple

11 Change in Home Value Fountain Square s home values are expected to climb 7.6 percent, which is comparable to other Indianapolis neighborhoods, but less than the other midwest peer communities.! This is likely because growth in Germantown, Over-the-Rhine, and Pilsen is occurring at higher price points. The median home value of growth in the housing market is $300K in Pilsen and $150K in Over-the-Rhine and Germantown. It is $100K in Fountain Square. Change in Median Home Value % 1 5% Irvington Broad Ripple Mass Ave. Fountain Square Pilsen German Over-the- town Rhine Change in Number of Homes at Price Range Fountain Square Germantown Over-the-Rhine Pilsen Median Price of Housing Growth <$50K $100K $200K $300K $500K $1M+ 11

12 Change in Income Fountain Square s median income is 4 expected to rise by 18 percent from 2012 to , s i m i l a r t o o t h e r I n d i a n a p o l i s neighborhoods, except Mass Ave.! Income is projected to rise much faster than in the other midwestern peer neighborhoods. The ratio of growth in income to growth in h o u s i n g c o s t s i s a m e a s u r e o f a neighborhoods changing affordability. Fountain Square performs well on this Change in Median Income Fountain Square Irvington Broad Ripple Mass Ave. measure. Housing will become more 2 affordable to neighborhood residents. Ratio of Income Change to Housing Cost Change Change in Median Income % 1 5% 0.8 Fountain Square Pilsen German- town Over-the- Rhine Fountain Square Pilsen German- town Over-the- Rhine 12

13 Affordability of Housing In 2012, 7-in-10 Fountain Square households were able to afford a home priced at the neighborhood s median value. This is largely because Indianapolis is very affordable in general. However, Fountain Square is much more affordable than Mass Ave., where only 4- in-10 households can afford the median home. Percent of Households Who Can Afford Median Value Home (2017) 75% 5 25% Mass Ave. Irvington Broad Ripple Fountain Square Pilsen Fountain Square is much more affordable than its counterparts in other midwestern cities.! Because of this, the neighborhood has a competitive advantage over Pilsen, Germantown, and Over-the-Rhine.! Fountain Square can compete well with other Indianapolis neighborhoods because it offers uniq! Germantown Over-the- Rhine a unique product: detached housing, close to downtown, with neighborhood shopping, and at an affordable price. (Affordability was calculated as housing costs at 1/3 or less of gross income, assuming a $10K down payment and an 8% mortgage constant.) 13

14 Demand Analysis Residential 14

15 Residential: Defining the Competitive Market Area The competitive market area is roughly the southwest quadrant of a 2-mile radius around Monument Circle, bounded by Washington St., Rural St., Pleasant Run, Madison Ave., and Meridian St. The Neighborhood Demographics Demand Analysis 15

16 Residential: Expected Demand By 2017, there are expected to be 419 new households earning $50K or more. Fountain Square is not expected to experience net growth, but this is because of decline in the number of households earning less than $50K. Development should focus on the 261 new households earning $50K-$75K. This accounts for over 60 percent of the growth in households.! 300 Loss of 418 Households Gain of 419 Households Change in Number of Households Less than $15K $25K-$34.9K $50K-$74.9K $100K-$149.9K $200K+ Household Income 16

17 Residential: Expected Demand Of new households earning $50K-$75K, nearly half will be years old. The cohort aged accounts for 69 new households, while the more mature year-old cohort accounts for 53 new households. Combined, these two age cohorts will grow by households. these two age cohorts will grow by 122 households. Development should focus on those households that are between 25 and 44 years old and earn $50K-$75K. Number of New Households Earning $50K-$75K Age of Householder 17

18 Residential: Expected Supply The $100K-$150K price range is appropriate for our target market, earning $50K-$75K per year.! According to affordability calculations, a household earning $50K per year could borrow over $200K, and someone earning $75K per year could borrow over $300K. However, in Indiana s highly affordable housing market, a family earning $50K is unlikely to buy a $200K house.! Change in Number of Housing Units st-88th percentiles Less than $15K-$24.9K $25K-$34.9K $35K-$49.9K $50K-$74.9K $75K-$99.9K Household Income $100K-$149.9K $150K-$199.9K $200K+ To find a more accurate price point for the target market, income percentiles were compared to home value percentiles. The $50K-$75K range falls at the 71st-88th percentile in income. The same percentile range in home value represents a price range of $93K-$137K. To simplify, the range was adjusted to $100K-$150K. Change in Number of Housing Units Less than $50K $50K-$99.9K $100K-$149.9K $150K-$199.9K $200K-$249.9K $250K-$299.9K $300K-$399.9K Home Value 18

19 Residential: Expected Supply There is expected to be a net decrease in housing supply in the CMA. This is because a steep decline in the number of units worth less than $50K. There is expected to be an increase of 184 units worth $50K or more. The supply of homes at the $100K-$150K price range is expected to increase by 63. This leaves plenty of room in the market for more development at this price point. With 122 new households demanding this price point, there will be demand for 59 more units. 100 Change in Number of Housing Units Less than $50K $50K-$99.9K $100K-$149.9K $150K-$199.9K $200K-$249.9K $250K-$299.9K $300K-$399.9K Home Value 19

20 Residential: Recommendations For a development of 15 units, the development must capture a quarter of all growth in the target market. This capture rate is probably overly aggressive. To fill these units it will be necessary to attract buyers from a wider market area.! Fountain Square is able to compete across a broader area of Indianapolis because it fills a specific niche. It is growing into a cultural and entertainment hub, making it attractive to young professionals and young families. Fountain Square s retail corridor is more mature than Irvington s, its housing is more affordable than Mass Ave, and offers a culture unique from Broad Ripple at a more affordable price.! Over half of households in the CMA are family households. Therefore, the development should offer a mix of housing types family and non-family households. For family households, 2- and 3-bedroom units with 2 baths would be appropriate. 3-bedroom units are lacking in Fountain Square, so building this housing type offers a competitive advantage.! For non-family households, 1- and 2-bedroom units with 1 bath would be appropriate. Target Market (New Households Earning $50K-$75K) Housing Supply At Target Price ($100K-$150K) Surplus Demand 59 Capture Rate 25% Total Development 15 Units 20

21 Retail: Defining the Trade Area The retail trade area is a five minute drive time from Fountain Square, at Prospect St. and Virginia Ave.! The five minute drive time is appropriate because retail in Fountain Square is likely to serve mainly the surrounding neighborhood. Customers further than five minutes away are likely to shop at more convenient locations. The Neighborhood Demographics Demand Analysis 21

22 Retail: Existing Retail Areas Regional Community Neighborhood Convenience Defunct 4 1 Circle Center 2 Madison/Troy 3 Pleasant Run/ Southeastern 4 Mass Ave. 5 Fountain Square 6 State/Raymond The Neighborhood Demographics Demand Analysis 22

23 Retail: Surplus and Leakage Within a five minute drive time, almost $30 million of leakage is occurring in the General Merchandise category. Most of this leakage (nearly $25 million) is in the Other General Merchandise category. $30M $23M $15M $24.82 $8M $4.21 Vehicle and Parts Dealers Home Furnishings Electronics & Appliance Stores Building and Garden Supply Food and Beverage Stores $0M Department Stores Other General Merchandise Health and Personal Care Stores Gasoline Stations Supply Surplus Demand Clothing and Accessories Stores Sports, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Nonstore Retailers Food Service and Drinking Places -$60 -$30 $0 $30 Surplus or Leakage (Millions of Dollars) Other General Merchandise stores include Costco, Walmart, Meijer, Dollar General, Family Dollar, and Big Lots.! In general, the low- to moderate-income residents of the trade area are not finding everyday needs at affordable prices nearby. 23

24 Retail: Surplus and Leakage There is a surplus of food service and drinking places in the trade area. This is because Fountain Square is a retail cluster in the dining category and serves as an entertainment hub.! The retail trade area for this category is larger. Though customers will not drive from very far to purchase clothing or groceries in Fountain Square, they often drive from distant neighborhoods and cities across central Indiana to enjoy Fountain Square s restaurants, bars, and venues.! When retail trade area is expanded to a 15 minutes drive time, demand for food and dining increases to $362 million. Restaurants within Fountain Square s neighborhood boundaries currently supply about $3.2 million of that demand. Demand for Food and Drink Within 15 Minutes of Fountain Square $359M $0M $100M $200M $300M $400M Supply Surplus Demand The other $359 million in demand is met at other locations. While there is still a surplus of food and drink even in this larger trade area, as one of Indianapolis key cultural districts, Fountain Square has an opportunity to be competitive for food and dining revenue at the city-wide level. 24

25 Retail: Recommendations There is demand for 165K-250K square feet of retail space in the Other General Merchandise category. This could come in the form of a big box store like Costco. However, this would be a significant departure from the neighborhoods current neighborhood retail form.! As an alternative to a big box store, a new development of smaller retail shops selling necessities and general merchandise could be successful. Five to ten smaller storefronts selling general merchandise could be complemented with rental units in the upper floors. There is also a market for new food and dining places. Though there is a surplus of food and dining places in the five, ten, and fifteen minute drive times, Fountain Square is able to support restaurants and bars because it is a growing entertainment hub and restaurant cluster.! Customers drawn to the established restaurants along Prospect St. will help generate more sales for new food and drink places in the neighborhood. 25

26 Office: Demand and Recommendations Currently, 6-in-10 employees in the retail trade area area white collar workers. By 2017, this is expected to shift to include more white collar workers.! There are currently 25,500 white collar workers within five minutes of Fountain Square. Expected growth in white collar workers is not available, but it can be derived from population growth. There is expected to be 1,026 new households in the trade area earning $50K or more. Assuming that each household at that earning level produces an average of 1.5 white collar workers, this results in 1,539 new white collar workers. Change in Number of Households Office space per worker was 150 square feet in August 2013, according to a survey by corporate real estate researcher CoreNet Global.! 1,500 new office workers will require about 231,000 square feet of new office space. Most of this demand will probably be captured by downtown office space. If Fountain Square wants to capture 1 of this demand, 23,000 square feet of office space should be built. Less than $15K $25K-$34.9K $50K-$74.9K $100K-$149.9K $200K+ Household Income 26

27 Hotel: Demand and Recommendations Demand Drivers Most of the employers that could drive hotel demand are located close to downtown. These customers would probably use downtown hotels. Employment centers closer to Fountain Square are mostly industrial, which would not create hotel demand. Event space is downtown, so that demand is also served by downtown hotels. Potential Product Type One hotel product with a viable market would be a small, tourist focused inn. This product type already exists in Fountainview Inn, located in the Fountain Square Theatre. 27