Results of the emission inventory EDGAR v4.1 of July Introduction

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1 Results of the emission inventory EDGAR v4.1 of July 2010 Introduction The new version v4.1 of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) provides independent estimates of the global anthropogenic emissions and emission trends, based on publicly available statistics, for the use in atmospheric models and policy evaluation. This scientific independent emission inventory is characterized by a coherent world historical trend. The EDGARv4.1 inventory covers for the time period from 1970 to 2005 including the following chemical substances: Updated Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gases : CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 And in addition the following air pollutants: CO, NO x, NMVOC, SO 2 and NH 3 Data are presented for all countries, with emissions provided per main source category, and spatially allocated on a 0.1 x0.1 grid over the globe. Note: Source categories for emissions per country used the source definitions of the 1996 IPCC guidelines for National GHG Emission Inventories. Emission inventory compilation and review is further ongoing for aerosols and particles (BC, OC, PM 10, PM 2.5, PM 1 ), other greenhouse gases (NF 3 and SO 2 F 2 ) and ozone depleting substances (CFCs, MCF and HCFCs). Global emission trends ( ) Kyoto Protocol Greenhouse Gases The new EDGARv4.1 dataset differs from the previous v4.0 by less than 3% for CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O, with significant improvements having been made to the CH 4 emissions in the waste sector. The new dataset shows that CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O all increased annually between 1% and 4% in the period , contrary to any of 5 consecutive years in the nineties. Furthermore, the data compilation for SF 6 has been completed with SF 6 production emissions seeing a 7% increase in A global view on all Kyoto Protocol gases expressed in CO 2 eq (GWP 100 values from IPCC s Second Assessment Report (SAR)) is given in Figure 1a (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) and 1b (HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 ). Please note that, conform with UNFCCC definition for CO 2, these figures exclude CO 2 from savannah and agricultural waste burning (IPCC categories 4E and 4F) as well as CO 2 from biomass used as fuel (IPCC sector 1) and from biogenic carbon in waste incineration (IPCC category 6C). CO 2 from large scale biomass burning and post burn decay of remaining biomass in IPCC sector 5 (categories 5A1&2 and 5F2) are added separately. Note: The latter sector 5 is often referred to as the LULUCF sector (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry), for which EDGAR presently reports CO 2 emissions related to forests and peatlands, as well as emissions of other substances. The IPCC inventory guidelines assume no net contribution to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from biomass burned as fuel in IPCC sector 1 (energy) nor from biomass burned in IPCC categories 4E, 4F, 5C, 5F, 6C), since this is assumed to short cycle carbon (regrowth within a year). To the extent that fuelwood (and roundwood) produced from forests is not produced sustainably, this should be accounted for in the calculation of net CO 2 removals ( sinks ) from maturing of existing forests or newly forested areas.

2 Fig.1a: Global GHG emissions in Pg CO 2 eq (using the UNFCCC definition for CO 2, including LULUCF (categories 5A1&2, 5F2) (GWP100 values of SAR) Fig.1b: Global F gas emissions in Pg CO 2 eq (GWP100 values of SAR) A sector specific break down for GHG emissions, including LULUCF categories 5A1, 5A2 and 5F, is shown in Figure 2 for Fig.2: Composition in 2005 of the contributing sectors to global GHG emissions (conform UNFCCC definition). The contribution to the total global warming potential by the different UNFCCC direct greenhouse gases differs strongly per emitting sector. Figure 3 details the subsector division of the main IPCC sectors energy (fuel combustion and fugitive emissions from fuels), industrial processes (non combustion), agriculture, LULUCF and waste.

3 Fig.3a Contribution (in percentage) in 2005 of the three main GHG and F gases to the subcategories of the major source sector: energy and fossil fuel production with 1A1a (power industry), 1A1bc (fuel refineries and transformation), 1A2 (industrial combustion), 1A3a (domestic aviation), 1A3b (road transport), 1A3c (rail transport), 1A3d (inland waterways), 1A3e (off road transport), 1A4 (residential), 1B1 (fugitive emissions from solid fuel production and distribution), 1B2 (fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas production and distribution), 1A3aii (international aviation) and 1A3dii (international shipping). Fig.3b Contribution (in percentage) in 2005 of the three main GHG and F gases to the subcategories of the major source sector: industrial processes and solvents with 2A1 (cement production), 2A2 (lime production), 2A7 (other mineral products), 2B (chemical industry), 2C (metal production), 2D (other production), 2E (Halocarbon and SF6 production), 2F (consumption of Halocarbons and SF6), 2G (other industrial processes), 3 (solvent and other product use). Fig.3c Contribution (in percentage) in 2005 of the three main GHG and F gases to the subcategories of the major source sector: waste with 4A (enteric fermentation), 4B (manure management), 4C (rice cultivation), 4D1 (direct agricultural soil emissions), 4D2 (manure in pasture/range/paddock), 4D3 (indirect N2O emissions from agriculture), 4D4 (other direct emissions from agricultural soils). (Savannah burning 4E and agricultural waste burning 4F are not taken up in the contribution conform with the UNFCCC definition.) Fig.3d Contribution (in percentage) in 2005 of the three main GHG and F gases to the subcategories of the major source sector: waste with 6A (solid waste disposal), 6B (wastewater handling), 6C (waste incineration), 6D (other waste emissions).

4 GHG trends in industrialized and developing countries ( ) All emissions are detailed at country level following consistently the 2006 IPCC methodology, activity data (statistics) from publicly available sources and to the extent possible emission factors as recommended by the IPCC 2006 guidelines for GHG emission inventories. Thus we provide full and upto date inventories per country, also for developing countries that go beyond the mostly highly aggregated UNFCCC reports of these, so called, non Annex I countries. Moreover, the time series back in time to 1970 provides for the UNFCCC trends a historical evolvement. However, the latter has to be interpreted with care at the break up of some countries such as the former Soviet Union. The very different nature of most developing countries (with many located in the tropics) and the industrialized ones (mainly at higher Northern latitudes) implies very different emissions from largescale biomass burning. Therefore GHG emissions have been compared in Figure 4 for Annex I and Non Annex I countries, including and excluding the LULUCF emissions. Emissions from international shipping and aviation are added separately for completeness. Fig.4: Historical GHG emissions trend for Annex I countries, Non Annex I countries (both, excluding and including the LULUCF sector), and international shipping and aviation. An indication of the uncertainty is given by the error bar for the year 2000.

5 Main air pollutant emissions in most polluting countries The emissions of main air pollutants considered in EDGAR are precursors of tropospheric ozone (CO, NMVOC, NO x ) and acidifying substances (NO x, NH 3, SO 2 ), which present a different behaviour than GHG. All emissions are detailed at country level following consistently the same technology based methodology, activity data (statistics) from publicly available sources and to the extent possible emission factors as recommended by the EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook. Technology mixes per country or region were taken from other data sources or estimated using other sources or countries as proxy. End of pipe abatement measures included are country specific or at least regional (over 4000 are taken into account). When comparing regional air pollution of CO, NMVOC, NO x, NH 3, and SO 2 emissions, it is noted that highest emitting countries are mainly amongst non Annex I countries. Table 1 ranks countries with decreasing degree of emissions in NO x emissions in China show an almost 50% increase in the period , while in the period the increase was modest (5%). Other countries with large growth rates over are India and Indonesia. Table1: Top 5 emitters of main air pollutants in 2005 (including forest and peat fire emissions) (with annual total in Tg species) 2005 Tg CO 2005 Tg NMVOC 2005 Tg NO Tg NH Tg SO 2 China China China China China Brazil USA USA India 4.47 USA USA Brazil Int. shipping USA 3.59 Int. shipping 7.87 India Russia 8.39 India 8.19 Brazil 3.23 India 7.41 Indonesia Indonesia 8.22 Russia 4.30 Indonesia 1.66 Russia 6.71 The air pollutant trends on a regional scale confirm the following observations: CO: shows a decrease of 12% for CO. The CO emissions mainly occur in Africa due to the dominating residential (biofuels) and road transport sectors. Fig. 5a: Global CO emissions trend including LULUCF emissions in Tg CO/yr. Fig.5b: Global CO emissions trend excluding LULUCF emissions in Tg species CO/yr.

6 NMVOC: shows globally increases over the decade of 5%. These NMVOC emissions are mainly caused by the category fuel production and transmission and are mainly spread over industrialized countries. Fig. 6a: Global NMVOC emissions trend including LULUCF emissions in Tg NMVOC species per yr. Fig.6b: Global NMVOC emissions trend excluding LULUCF emissions in Tg NMVOC species per yr. NO x : reflects the dominating energy sector with the increasing energy demand and gradual implementation of end of pipe abatement measures. It shows similar decreases in the early nineties as for SO 2, but shortly followed up by further increases of up to 6% again in the newly industrialized countries. In the latter the implementation of end of pipe abatement measures is only recently started, as the example of the measures for passenger cars in Germany confronted with those in China reveal in Figure 8.

7 Fig.7a: Global NO x emissions trend inclusive LULUCF emissions in Tg NO 2 /yr. Fig.7b: Global NO x emissions trend excluding LULUCF emissions in Tg NO 2 /yr. Fig. 8: Comparison of NO x control measures for passenger cars using motorgasoline over time introduced in Germany (DEU) and in China (CHN). NH 3 : shows globally increases over the decade of 15%, similar to NO x, but emitted by completely different sources. In the case of NH 3, agriculture dependent countries show large emissions in particular from agricultural soils and manure management.

8 Fig.9a: Global NH 3 emission trend inclusive LULUCF emissions in Tg NH 3 /yr. Fig.9b: Global NH 3 emission trend excluding LULUCF emissions in Tg NH 3 /yr. SO 2 : shows strong decreases in the nineties up to 4% mainly caused by end of pipe abatement measures in Europe and North America, but since 2001 presents recent global annual increases of up to 3%, mainly caused by the economically emerging countries and regions such as China, India, the Middle East and lastly Brazil aside of the international shipping. Fig.10a: Global SO 2 emission trend inclusive LULUCF emissions in Tg SO 2 /yr. Fig.10b: Global SO 2 emission trend excluding LULUCF emissions in Tg SO 2 /yr. The latter LULUCF sector contributed only about %.

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