The Ditch Is Back. Reintroducing an old friend

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1 A RIPPLE OR TSUNAMI? Presented by: John D. Padgett, Partner McGuireWoods LLP 101 W. Main Street, Suite 900 Norfolk, VA

2 The Ditch Is Back Reintroducing an old friend 51 mile canal Started by the French in 1881 After $287,000,000 and the loss of 22,000 lives, the French abandoned the project in 1893 In 1904, the US used a big stick and $40 million to buy out the French The US completed the Canal in 1914 at a cost of $375 million Panama Canal is one of the Seven Wonders of the Modern World

3 Panama Reacquires Canal US used financial and diplomatic pressure to force France and Britain to abandon the Suez Canal Using the Suez Canal as a rallying cry, the Panamanians started demanding the return of the Canal A riot that resulted in the deaths of 20 civilians and several US soldiers on January 9, 1964 increased the pressure on the US Jimmy Carter executed the Panama Canal Treaty on September 7, 1977 Panama Canal Authority took over command of the Canal on December 31, 1999

4 Panama Acknowledges Size Matters The size of the locks have limited larger vessels from going through the Canal The ship builders created Panamax vessels to accommodate the Canal Yet, larger vessels have been built to accommodate cargo growth and to achieve cost efficiencies Post Panamax vessels 200 feet longer 3 times cargo capacity Require deeper drafts and more vertical clearance Currently, post Panamax vessels carry about 27% of the world s cargo

5 Panama Acknowledges Size Matters (Continued) Panama Canal Expansion Project will double the capacity of the Canal The construction of a third set of locks will allow for post Panamax vessels to transit the Canal Project to be completed in April 2015 at a cost of $5.2 billion

6 THE GREAT UNKNOWN THE IMPACT OF THE PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION

7 THE IMPACT? The biggest shift in the freight business since the 1950s, when sea faring ships began carrying goods in uniform metal containers December 2010, New York Times Observers put the maritime traffic gains to East Coast ports through the expanded Canal at between 20% and 35% of the current West Coast freight

8 IF THEY BUILD IT WILL THEY COME? The expansion of Panama Canal has spawned numerous port related projects Dredging projects Port of Miami Mobile, Alabama Savannah, Georgia Bridge projects Bayonne Bridge being raised to 215 feet

9 IF THEY BUILD IT WILL THEY COME? (Continued) Land based infrastructure projects Heartland corridor Obama administration has fast tracked a number of port projects Terminal improvements Tampa quadrupling its size American Society of Civil Engineers estimated that $30 billion needs to be invested in the US port system to remain competitive in a post Panamax world If not, experts claim the potential loss of $1 trillion in personal income by 2020

10 IT IS NOT JUST THE CANAL STUPID! Relocation of manufacturing from China to Southeast Asia Has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? Southeast Asia has increased its manufacturing capacity Labor and land costs are creeping up in China Major quality control issues have hurt China s brand Chinese drywall Melamine in Chinese diary products Concerns about China s third shift

11 IT IS NOT JUST THE CANAL STUPID! (Continued) Trade wars and the manipulation of currency has created tension among trading partners The need to improve port efficiency Larger ships are expensive to operate and require significant capital investments Shipping lines will select terminals based on the efficiency of its operations All terminals will need to invest in more cranes, terminal automation and redeploy existing assets

12 IT IS NOT JUST THE CANAL STUPID! (Continued) Changing population patterns Competitive response from the West Coast ports Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) and Union Pacific (UP) working with West Coast ports to guarantee competitive cost and service options Catch 22 effect Decrease in port congestion will improve efficiencies in West Coast ports

13 IT IS NOT JUST THE CANAL STUPID! (Continued) Competitive Pressures Caribbean and South American transshipment and logistics operations Suez Canal Nicaragua and Columbia Toll charges for the use of the Panama Canal Currently about $72 per unit of container capacity If volume of vessels do not match forecasts, then the Panama Canal will likely increase the toll charges

14 IT IS NOT JUST THE CANAL STUPID! (Continued) Labor unrest The calm before the storm 35 years without a work stoppage on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico ports The West Coast ports have experienced significant labor issues Work stoppage on the West Coast in 2002 cost $2 billion a day

15 IT IS NOT JUST THE CANAL STUPID! (Continued) Issues Automation and technology Jurisdiction over chassis maintenance The potential storm still looms on the horizon has merely been postponed until after the election and holiday season

16 IT IS NOT JUST THE CANAL STUPID! (Continued) Change in supply chain management Near sourcing Central America Free Trade Agreement ( CAFTA ) created an influx of sourcing facilities Dell, IBM, Proctor & Gamble and Lee/Hanes have made substantial investments in CAFTA countries

17 IT IS NOT JUST THE CANAL STUPID! (Continued) Large scale logistic hubs Balanced year round shipping schedules Economic downturn and overcapacity Environmental issues Increased focus on the environment and carbon pricing could favor West Coast ports CO2 emissions per TEU for a large Panamax vessel going through a West Coast port and using rail to New York, on average, is only 2/3 of emissions involved in a trip through the Panama Canal to New York

18 EXPANSION OF THE PANAMA CANAL QUESTIONS?

19 THE END Business Department Capital Markets Energy & Utilities Health Care International Land Use & Environmental Mergers & Acquisitions, Securities & Corporate Services Real Estate Transactions Tax & Employee Benefits Technology & Business Litigation Department Antitrust & Trade Regulation Business & Securities Litigation Complex Commercial Litigation Financial Services Litigation Government Investigations IP Litigation/Patents Labor & Employment Product & Consumer Litigation Restructuring & Insolvency Toxic Torts & Environmental Litigation ATLANTA AUSTIN BALTIMORE CHARLOTTE CHARLOTTESVILLE CHICAGO HOUSTON JACKSONVILLE LOS ANGELES NEW YORK NORFOLK PITTSBURGH RALEIGH RICHMOND TYSONS CORNER WASHINGTON, D.C. WILMINGTON ALMATY, KAZAKHSTAN BRUSSELS, BELGIUM LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM McGuireWoods LLP

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