Population Change in the UK: The challenging demography

Transcription

1 Population Change in the UK: The challenging demography Professor Jane Falkingham ESRC Centre for Population Change PACTS Conference: Older, Wiser, Safer The Challenge of an Ageing Population 13th October 2011

2 A century of population change in the UK In 1901 the population of the UK was 39.3 million By 2001 it had reached 59 million In 1901, the total fertility rate was 3.5 By 2001 it was 1.7 In 1901 the average life expectancy for a man was 45 In 2001 it was 75 Rise in life expectancy across the last century is equivalent to equivalent to 7 hours a day! During the twentieth century more people emigrated from the UK than immigrated The net exodus from the UK was over 15 million 2

3 The drivers of population change The size, composition and distribution of a population are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. Pt 2 = Pt 1 + B - D + I - E Where: Pt 2 Population at time t 2 Pt 1 Population at time t 1 B Births D Deaths I In-migration E Out-migration 3

4 Fig 1: Births and Deaths 1901 to 2001, UK Millions 0.8 Births Deaths

5 Fig 2: Annual net international migration , UK Thousands Source: Annual Abstracts of Statistics 5

6 Population change in the UK today Today just over 62 million The population of the UK grew by just over 1,ooo people a day last year The rate of population growth is increasing 0.6% per year since 2001, compared to 0.3 per cent per year and 0.2 per cent per year Driven by increasing fertility, improving mortality and net migration 6

7 The challenging demography?

8 Population ageing is often portrayed as a demographic time bomb 8

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11 Population Ageing Distinguish between individual & population ageing Individuals age continuously from birth to death Populations can become older or younger depending on their age structure 11

12 Fig 3: Proportion of Britain s population aged 65 plus (%), % Source: ONS Population Trends and Population Projections (selected volumes). 12

13 How do populations grow old? Fertility, mortality, migration FERTILITY Falling fertility, fewer babies, fewer younger people in population, thus a higher proportion of the population who are elderly The level of fertility determines the numbers of people entering the population at its base. 13

14 Fig 1: Births and Deaths 1901 to 2001, UK Millions Births Deaths

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16 Fig 4a Age pyramids, 1951 and 2001, United Kingdom Thousands UK population: 2001 and 1951 (coloured) Males Females st baby -boom 2 nd baby -boom ,000 2,000 1, ,000 2,000 3,000 Baby bust WWII 1 st baby -boom urce: 1951, 2001 Censuses 16

17 Fig 4b Age pyramids, 2001, and 2031, United Kingdom Thousands UK population: 2001 and 2031 (coloured) Males Females Second baby boom Sustained low fertility ,000 2,000 1, ,000 2,000 3,000 17

18 What role for mortality? Reduced mortality affects all age groups - it increases the number of young persons as well as old. Lower mortality leads to a higher average age at death. However, the average age of a population is the average age of living people, not their average age of death. BUT Reductions in mortality at very old ages can cause ageing from the apex of the population pyramid. Mortality decline at older ages leads to the ageing of the elderly population 18

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20 Fig 5: Number of very old (90 plus) by age and gender, UK , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Men Women Today, over 475,000 people in the UK are aged 90 or more 20

21 Fig 6: Population aged 100 years and over, UK, Total Men Women Today, over 12,500 people in the UK are aged 100 or more 21

22 Fig 7: Projected population aged 85 and over, UK 2008, 2023 and & over thousands 22

23 Table 1: Age at which at least 50 percent of a birth cohort is still alive Birth year Country Canada Germany France Italy Japan Netherlands United Kingdom USA Source: Vaupel,

24 Fig 8a: Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HLE-3, HLE-5) 1,2 and disability free life expectancy (DFLE) for males at age 65; to , UK Years LE HLE-3 HLE-5 DFLE 1 HLE-3 based on 3-point general health question; to HLE-5 based on 5-point general health question; to Estimates for to are simulations based on original survey data. Shown as a dashed line 24

25 Fig 8b: Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HLE-3, HLE-5) 1,2 and disability free life expectancy (DFLE) for females at age 65; to , UK Years LE HLE-3 HLE-5 DFLE 1 HLE-3 based on 3-point general health question; to HLE-5 based on 5-point general health question; to Estimates for to are simulations based on original survey data. Shown as a dashed line 25

26 Fig 9a: Percentage of older men who are drivers England, 2008/9 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Never Driver Ex Driver Driver 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: WAVE 4 (2008/9) of English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 26

27 Fig 9b: Percentage of older women who are drivers England, 2008/9 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Never Driver Ex Driver Driver 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: WAVE 4 (2008/9) of English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 27

28 Fig 8b: Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HLE-3, HLE-5) 1,2 and disability free life expectancy (DFLE) for females at age 65; to , UK Years LE HLE-3 HLE-5 DFLE 1 HLE-3 based on 3-point general health question; to HLE-5 based on 5-point general health question; to Estimates for to are simulations based on original survey data. Shown as a dashed line 28

29 Other demographic changes affecting later life

30 Fig 10: People living alone, by sex and age: 1986/87 and 2005, Great Britain Men Age 75 and over Women 1986/ Percentages / Percentages Source: General Household Survey (Longitudinal) 30

31 Fig 11: Females aged 65 and over by partnership status, , England and Wales 8,000 6, ,000 2,000 0 Total Married Cohabiting Never married alone Source: ONS (2006) Marital Status Projections Previously married alone 31

32 Increasing childlessness, but also significant proportions with 3+ births Number of children at age 40 Cohort Source: ONS (2010) Birth Statistics 32

33 Fig 12: Changing life course. Proportion of individuals experiencing various life events by age 25, by birth cohort % Marriage Birth of child Cohabitation Marriage breakdown birth cohort 33

34 Changing life course Years of Age s Late industrial, incipient welfare state Education Work/family raising E 0 Cease work 2000s Postmodern welfare state Education Work/family raising Retirement E 0 E 0 = average life expectancy at birth (both sexes) = Time spent in Education = Time spent in Retirement Source: Adapted from A. Warnes (2006) 34

35 Fig 13: Percentage of older people (aged 65 and over) in employment 1996 to 2011, UK Source: ONS Labour Force Survey; data are for May-July each year Men Women 35

36 The challenges and opportunities of an ageing population? Health care costs Personal social services Pensions Affordability of the welfare state Longer later life to work, rest & play Greater volunteering by older people Longer to contribute to community, society 36

37 Concluding thoughts Demographic trends matter! Key factors for determining future will be: Trends in mortality and morbidity at older ages Trends in fertility and patterns of family building Trends in marriage and divorce New family forms e.g. living apart together 37