Changing Age Structures and Ageing Scenario of Arab World

Transcription

1 Changing Age Structures and Ageing Scenario of Arab World Rshood M. Khraif Asharaf Abdul Salam Ibrahim Elsegaey Abdullah AlMutairi Center for Population Studies King Saud University Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Paper presented at International Istanbul Initiative on Ageing Istanbul, Turkey46 October, 2013 Authors acknowledge the support given by the Deanship of Scientific Research of King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

2 Introduction Arab World is a distinctive region Population of the region spread over two continents The coordinating unit League of Arab Nations

3 Introduction This region has twothirds of world s known petroleum reserves Population of the region grows fast The resultant youth bulge A rapidly declining death rate and slowly declining birth rate Population growth in the Arab World is projected to continue in the coming decades The higher youth proportion in this population is on a decline Number of ageing persons increases with a significant increase in life expectancy

4 Introduction The process of ageing is in its early stage Fast ageing in Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Qatar, Tunisia and UAE Medium ageing as in Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Syria Slow ageing as in Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, Iraq, Sudan, Somalia and Yemen Demographic transition experiences of Arab countries are comparable to that of other developing regions

5 Objectives The current research aims to (i) explore changes in age structures over a period of 3 decades and (ii) assess the ageing situation.

6 Data Source The current analysis is based on International Data Base (IDB) of US Census Bureau for 3 decades Out of the 22 Arab countries included in the Arab League, data on Palestine is not included in IDB Asian countries are further divisible into Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members and others (West Asian) Six countries who are members of GCC include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates West Asian countries include Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen Those in African continent can be divided into Maghreb and others (Nile Valley and African Horn) Maghreb countries include Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia The Nile Valley and African Horn include Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Somalia and Sudan.

7 Methodology Data on Oman was not available for the year So that referring to 1993 was utilized Data of Yemen was not available for 1992 or And so, that of 1994 was utilized Data of Egypt was not available from ; that of 1996 was utilized Data on Sudan was not available for years till 2000, except the total population

8 Methodology The raw data analyzed statistically Proportion of population by broad age groups Proportion of population by 5 year age groups Age pyramids Child woman ratio Aged child ratio Median age Age dependency ratio

9 Analyses were done to understand The age structure and ageing pattern of Arab World as a whole Four sectors as well as member states separately

10 a. Age Structure Results and Discussion Analyses of age structure of population have its relevance to national policies and development plans, especially of declining fertility contexts Demographic analyses of age structure adopt two classifications namely broad age groups and five year age groups

11 Broad Age Groups Common classification children (below 15 years; Adults 1559 years and old aged 60 years and above) A large proportion of Arab World population are youths and adults Youth bulge Table 1 Proportion of population by broad age group Age group Children (below 15 years) Adults (1559 years) Old aged (60+ years) Male Female

12 The GCC The most affected sector in terms of its broad age groups The proportion of adult age group increased unexpectedly with a marked decrease in the childhood population It was highly biased in terms of males that the childhood proportion declined A similar changing trend was observed among females as well but at a lesser proportion These changes have not started impacting upon the percentage of old aged; affected by intensive labor migration

13 West Asia An increasing trend of adult proportion but decreasing children The proportion of children declined from 46.3 percent (1992) to 37.3 percent (2012) whereas that of adults increased from 48.5 percent (1992) to 57.3 percent (2012) High fertility in this region continues, further, with the large cohort of child bearing population of previous generation Here too the percentage of old aged remains unaffected

14 Maghreb Results and Discussion A bit faster decline of children accompanied by faster increase in adult and old aged population It may have resulted from (i) the mainstream of migrants to Europe (ii) the recent fertility decline or (iii) the family planning initiative The children declined from 39.9 percent (1992) to 26.3 percent (2012) whereas adults increased from 53.8 percent (1992) to 65.2 percent (2012) This is mainly due to rural to urban migration and immigration, particularly of prime working age group An increasing trend of old aged is also noted (from 6.3 percent to 8.4 percent)

15 Nile Valley and African Horne The proportions in Nile Valley and African Horne is almost equal that of West Asia The decline in percent of children is not marked as also increase in adults But a slow increase of old aged population but with an increase in their share, in the future, experience challenges such as meeting health needs, housing and social security

16 Table 2 Proportion of GCC population by broad age groups Sector, states and year GCC 1992 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE 2002 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE 2012 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Children (below 15 years) Adults (1559 years) Old aged (60+ years) Male Female Male Female Male Female

17 Sector, states and year West Asia 1992 Iraq Jordan Lebanon Syria Yemen 2002 Iraq Jordan Lebanon Syria Yemen 2012 Iraq Jordan Lebanon Syria Yemen Children (below 15 years) Adults (1559 years) Old aged (60+ years) Male Female Male Female Male Female

18 Sector, states and year Maghreb 1992 Algeria Libya Mauritania Morocco Tunisia 2002 Algeria Libya Mauritania Morocco Tunisia 2012 Algeria Libya Mauritania Morocco Tunisia Results and Discussion Children (below 15 years) Adults (1559 years) Old aged (60+ years) Male Female Male Female Male Female

19 Sector, states Children (below 15 years) Adults (1559 years) Old aged (60+ years) and year Male Female Male Female Male Female Nile Valley and African Horne 1992 Comoros Djibouti Egypt Somalia Sudan 2002 Comoros Djibouti Egypt Somalia Sudan 2012 Comoros Djibouti Egypt Somalia Sudan

20 Fig. 1 Distribution of broad age groups within the sectors GCC Maghreb West Asia Nile valley and African Horne

21 (ii) Five year age groups Another method of investigating the impact of population growth on age structure Five year age group explains population with definite equal intervals These, cohorts often follow a trend in terms of absolute numbers and percentages Arab World, as a whole, had a population proportion that declined with increasing age; both among males and females A fast decline of percentages during the childhood years (04; 59; 1014; 1519) noticed This difference in percentages was higher during 1992 and which reduced in 2002 and further in 2012 The decline in percentages was different during these periods on specific ages

22 Table 3 Proportion of population by 5 year age groups Age group Male Female Male Female Male Female

23 Comparatively, the percentages in childhood years declined with time Age distribution on five year intervals showed that West Asia had the highest proportion of 04, 59 and 1014 years, followed by GCC Both Maghreb and Nile Valley and African Horne had almost equal percentages during 1992 The trend changed in 2002 that West Asia had the highest percentages followed by Nile Valley and African Horne, GCC and Maghreb in the order Further, during 2012 GCC and West Asia had almost equal proportions where as Nile Valley and African Horne had a percentage higher than that of Maghreb

24 Table 4 Proportion of population by 5 year age groups across sections Age group GCC West Asia Maghreb North East Africa Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

25 Table 4 Proportion of population by 5 year age groups across sections Age group GCC West Asia Maghreb North East Africa Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

26 Age group Results and Discussion Table 4 Proportion of population by 5 year age groups across sections GCC West Asia Maghreb North East Africa Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

27 b. Ageing Results and Discussion Achievement of a significant gain in life expectancy for both males and females in the Arab World during the last three decades Ageing of population increase in the proportion of old aged (60 years and above) accompanied by decrease in the proportion of children (below 15 years) in the population Ageing of population results from changes in fertility, mortality and migration flows Population ageing in the Arab World accelerates in the coming years This phenomenon is explored by plotting age pyramids as well as by calculating certain indices

28 (i) Age Pyramids Demographic transition under way in the Arab World has implications increase in proportion of youth (1524 years) growth of population in working age (2564 years) increase in old aged (65 years and above), thereafter Age pyramid of Arab World is expansive in shape showing higher percentage of children declining percentages of subsequent ages the percentage of old aged population was low

29 Fig. 2 Age pyramid of Arab World for three decades Male Female Male Female Male Female

30 Age pyramid shows some change, in 2002 Decline in percentage of children and subsequent years but a slight increase in the older ages Age pyramid lost its expansive shape in 2012, showing symptoms of constriction Age Pyramids of GCC showed an unexplained trend It was neither easy to understand their pyramids nor interpret. Population pyramid of West Asia was revealing the trend of changing age structures Age structure of Maghreb shows a trend of constriction and further reduction of percentage of children Their aged population was expanding continuously Age structure of Nile Valley and African Horne sector changed from an expansive in 1992 to less expansive shape in 2012

31 (ii) Age related indices There are four indices of statistical significance derived to interpret age structure of the particular population 1. Child Woman Ratio the number of children below 5 years of age per 1000 women of age 1549 years This rate has been calculated separately for male and female children This, an indirect indication of fertility trend, shows a marked decline during the period; a fall from to The decline during period was not as significant as that of the previous decade (493.0 to 453.2) A higher decline in the number of males (92.3 points) than that of female (88.4 points) children was observed during the period of

32 Table 5 Age based indices Arab Child Woman Ratio Aged child ratio Median Age Age Dependency ratio World Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

33 2. Aged Child Ratio The percent of population aged 60 years and above to the children of age below 15 years An increasing trend was visible, indicating that the number of people aged 60 years and above had increased over time The 13.2 percent during 1992 increased to 15.8 in 2002 and 19.1 in 2012 There was acceleration in the increase of aged child ratio when compared between and The decline was higher among the females than males indicating that older females increased faster than older males This ageing index is expected to increase substantially in future particularly in demographically advanced countries

34 3. Median Age Results and Discussion The average age of the population indicates not only the fertility and mortality situation but also the population and development The median age of Arab World has shoot up from 18.9 during 1992 to 21.4 during 2002 to 23.7 in Both males and females had an equal median age throughout the period

35 4. Age Dependency Ratio Results and Discussion The percent of old aged (60 years and above) to the working age people (1559 years) Indicates the burden of social welfare and public benefit programs in a particular population There was a higher ratio in the Arab World, which varied during the period; a decline during but an increase during The steadiness of age dependency is attributed to the relatively lower proportion of aged population

36 Within the GCC sector, The child woman ratio declined further An equal decline for both males and females The child woman ratio was found to be the lowest in Bahrain during all the periods Declines among both males and females equal The aged child ratio was found to be lower in GCC The highest ratio was noted in Bahrain during all the periods, which was followed by Saudi Arabia and Oman Differences between sexes were less noticed. Median age remained high in GCC comparatively. Qatar had the highest median age among the countries, during all the periods Age dependency ratio was lower, comparatively in GCC sector

37 The West Asia sector Had a child woman ratio that declined from 78 (1992) to (2002) (2012) Decline among male and female was almost equal Lebanon had the lowest child woman ratio Ratio was noted to be high in some of the countries A uniform male female trend in reduction of child woman ratio Aged child ratio was found to be high in Lebanon increased noticeably during 2012 to 57.3 Yemen showed a decrease in the ratio, during Median age increased remarkably, during Highest median age in Lebanon, followed by Jordan Age dependency ratio remained higher but a declining trend Lebanon showed a higher ratio followed by Jordan and

38 Maghreb countries Showed a low child woman ratio, comparatively It had reduced from (1992) to (2002) to (2012) Mauritania showed the highest with small declines Tunisia showed the lowest ratio followed by Algeria Aged child ratio of Maghreb countries remained at 15.9 (1992); 22.3 (2002) and 32.1 (2012) Tunisia had the highest ratio Mauritania had the lowest median age Tunisia followed by Morocco had the highest median age.

39 Nile Valley and African Horne sector Experienced low levels of child woman ratio While Somalia had the highest child woman ratio Egypt had the lowest child woman ratio, except during 2012 Djibouti registered a higher decline in this ratio

40 GCC 1992 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE 2002 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE 2012 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Results and Discussion Table 6 Age based indices for by sectors Child Woman Ratio Aged child ratio Median Age Age Dependency ratio Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

41 Child Woman Ratio Aged child ratio Median Age Age Dependency ratio Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female West Asia 1992 Iraq Jordan Lebanon Syria Yemen 2002 Iraq Jordan Lebanon Syria Yemen 2012 Iraq Jordan Lebanon Syria Yemen

42 Child Woman Ratio Aged child ratio Median Age Age Dependency ratio Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Maghreb 1992 Algeria Libya Mauritania Morocco Tunisia 2002 Algeria Libya Mauritania Morocco Tunisia 2012 Algeria Libya Mauritania Morocco Tunisia

43 Child Woman Ratio Aged child ratio Median Age Age Dependency ratio Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Nile Valley and African Horne 1992 Comoros Djibouti Egypt Somalia Sudan 2002 Comoros Djibouti Egypt Somalia Sudan 2012 Comoros Djibouti Egypt Somalia Sudan

44 There is an increase in aged child ratio: a larger increase was felt during period But the increase in median age was noted more during Age dependency ratio had declined during but increased during : It will reach its height in 2050 The double challenge that the Arab World faces include social and economic pressure resulting from the current global crises and the pressures of migration With the change in the age structure and ageing of population, planned efforts are needed to promote quality of life of elderly and enable them to work and live independently in the communities; to provide healthcare systems and social security in old age and to develop a social support system formal and informal to enhance the abilities of families to take care of elderly people within the family

45 Ageing affects social organization and the relevant societal institutions including families and households The recommendations of Vienna Plan of Action on Ageing, Madrid Plan of Action on Ageing and the Arab Plan of Action on Ageing shall be of importance to meet the challenges of ageing in the Arab World The ongoing efforts in formulating national policies for older persons are a step in this line While stressing the informal care system, the intergenerational solidarity receives attention, in the ageing Arab World

46 Conclusions The rapidly growing heterogeneous Arab World can be delineated into four sectors; each having its own homogeneous demographics Growth of population in the region impact upon its structure in such a way that the adults (working age) increased, especially those in adolescence and youth age, due to decreased proportion of children but without influencing the proportion of old aged Change in the age pyramids towards constriction during the last 3 decades brings out issues of ageing in the coming decade, which are reflected by child woman ratio, aged child ratio, median age and age dependency ratio While addressing population issues of growth, change and distribution with special focus on Arab World, it is the heterogeneity that is more pronounced than the homogeneity in terms of language and religion.

47 Conclusions This uncoordinated region requires concerted population and public health policies and programs to retain its population characteristics and bring novel improvements It is time to think, Arab World, as a region, for progress and prospects

48 T H A N K Y O U F O R Y O U R K I N D A T T E N T I O N