NewSpace: The Future of Commercial Activity in Outer Space?

Transcription

1 A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) NewSpace: The Future of Commercial Activity in Outer Space? 26 September 2009 Mr. A.C. Charania President SpaceWorks Commercial (Fax) All images are property of their respective copyright owners and are used here for educational purposes only 1

2 SPACEWORKS 2

3 KEY CUSTOMERS AND PRODUCTS 3

4 DOMAIN OF EXPERTISE: ADVANCED CONCEPTS 4

5 - Two-Stage-to-Orbit (TSTO) All-Rocket Military Space Plane Design - Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) - Wright Patterson Air Force Base - Ares V Payload Uncertainty Quantification Analysis - NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA Constellation) - Hero Collaborative Engineering Environment for Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Design - Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) - Wright Patterson Air Force Base - Reusable Rocket-back Booster Demo Vehicles Study - Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) - Wright Patterson Air Force Base - Novel Scram-Rocket RBCC Engine Design Research (SCAAT Engine) - DoD Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) grant - Discrete-Event Simulation of Hypersonic Launch Vehicle Development and Acquisition Cost - NASA Langley Research Center, NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) - Human Lunar Surface Systems Cost Assessment - NASA s Human Lunar Exploration Program (NASA Constellation Strategic Analysis Cost Team) - Innovative Space Access Vehicle Studies (C&I Research) - NASA Langley Research Center - FastForward Study - Industrial team to research high-speed intercontinental package/passenger delivery - Economic Analysis of Space Solar Power (SSP) - International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) study - Future Demand Projections for Small Satellites (Market Quantification Study) - Google Lunar X-Prize (GLXP) Partnership with Astrobotic Technologies, Inc. SAMPLE OF PROJECTS IN

6 INTRODUCTION 6

7 7 AREAS OF ACTIVITY IN SPACE Source: Gary L. Martin, NASA's Strategy for Human and Robotic Exploration, NASA Space Architect, June 10, 2003

8 A Geosynchronous satellite (GEO) completes one revolution around the world every 23 hrs and 56 minutes in order to maintain continuous positioning above the earth s sub-satellite point on the equator. A medium earth orbit satellite (MEO) requires a constellation of 10 to 18 satellites in order to maintain constant coverage of the earth. A low earth orbit satellite (LEO) offers reduced signal loss since these satellites are 20 to 40 times closer to the earth in their orbits thus allowing for smaller user terminals/antennas. Source: Satellite Industry Association (SIA) 8 ORBITAL OPTIONS

9 Source: Satellite Industry Association (SIA) 9 GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT EXAMPLE LOCATIONS

10 Source: Space Foundation Space Report GLOBAL SPACE ACTIVITY IN 2009

11 Figure is illustrative and not drawn to scale Infrastructure Space as an essential utility (Value unknown) Space infrastructure under development 1960 $6 Billion (USG Only-- no commercial) 1990 About $50 Billion (Commercial less than 10%) 2008 Infrastructure About $250 Billion (Commercial about 50%) TREND OF SPACE ACTIVITY Source: Henry R. Hertzfeld, The Space Economy, Space Policy Institute, George Washington University, 13 March

12 12 COMMERCIAL SATELLITE INDUSTRY PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Source: Satellite Industry Association (SIA), State of the Satellite Industry Report, June 2009.

13 Pump Gas Eat Out Watch TV Shop Transact Financially Stay at Hotels Buy & Service Automobile Source: Satellite Industry Association (SIA), State of the Satellite Industry Report, June CRITICAL TO THE ECONOMY

14 Big Five Manufacturers Other Players 14 GLOBAL MANUFACTURING ENVIRONMENT Source: Satellite Industry Association (SIA), State of the Satellite Industry Report, June 2009.

15 15 GLOBAL COMMERCIAL SPACE REVENUE Source: Satellite Industry Association (SIA), State of the Satellite Industry Report, June 2009.

16 16 GLOBAL SATELLITE AND LAUNCH REVENUE BREAKOUT Source: Satellite Industry Association (SIA), State of the Satellite Industry Report, June 2009.

17 U.S. Launch Service Providers Lockheed Martin (Atlas) Boeing Launch Services (Delta) Orbital (Pegasus, Tarsus I/II, Minotaur) SpaceX (Falcon) International Launch Vehicle Market Boeing + Ukraine - Sea Launch/Land Launch (Zenit) Lockheed + Russian - ILS (Atlas/Proton) European- Arianespace (Ariane) India (PSLV) Russian Energia - (Proton) China Great Wall - (LongMarch) Japan Mitsubishi - (H2A/B) Source: Satellite Industry Association (SIA), State of the Satellite Industry Report, June LAUNCH INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

18 CURRENT LAUNCH CAPABILITIES OVERVIEW 18

19 19 SMALL U.S. EXPENDABLE LAUNCH VEHICLES Source: Lynn F. H. Cline, NASA Deputy Associate Administrator for Space Operations, NASA Expendable Launch Services Current Use of EELV, June 17, 2009.

20 20 MEDIUM AND HEAVY U.S. LAUNCH VEHICLES Source: Lynn F. H. Cline, NASA Deputy Associate Administrator for Space Operations, NASA Expendable Launch Services Current Use of EELV, June 17, 2009.

21 21 CURRENT NASA LAUNCH MANIFEST Source: Lynn F. H. Cline, NASA Deputy Associate Administrator for Space Operations, NASA Expendable Launch Services Current Use of EELV, June 17, 2009.

22 Forecast G'STAR LEO Telecomm (1.5 GHz < freq. < 2.5 GHz) LEO Telecomm (freq. < 1 GHz) Broadband LEO Telecom Commercial Remote Sensing Orbital Facility Assembly and Services International Science/Other # Satellites G'STAR ORBCOMM O3B O'COMM O3B IRIDIUM IRIDIUM IRIDIUM 10 AP* Year LEO: SATELLITE/PAYLOAD DEMAND FORECAST Source: Ken Davidian, 2009 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits, Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) - FAA, May 21,

23 # Launches Forecast Medium to Heavy (>2,268 kg LEO) Small (<2,268 kg LEO) ORBCOMM Year LEO: LAUNCH DEMAND FORECAST RS International Science / Other Source: Ken Davidian, 2009 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits, Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) - FAA, May 21, 2009 RS

24 35 Historical 1st Yr Forecast Near-Term Manifest Long-Term Demand Forecast Satellites Actual Historical 1st Year Satellite Demand Forecast 2009 Satellite Demand Forecast Actual Satellites Launched = Expected Realization Year 24 GSO SATELLITE DEMAND FORECAST Source: Ken Davidian, 2009 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits, Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) - FAA, May 21, 2009

25 Issue No.1: Why should anyone care? Stating the obvious: 1.Space is a PLACE for commerce, manufacturing and tourism 2.Space platforms provide communications and vital monitoring of Earth s environment 3.The lessons we learn in space can result in breakthroughs for Earthbased businesses 25 1

26 Issue No. 2: What s different today? Answers: 1.Private interest is taking over from Governments: X Prize, Bigelow Aerospace, SpaceX, etc. 2.Technology has become more affordable (600kg in LEO for $7M) 3.Development is moving from a «cost-plus» model to a Silicon Valley model driven by angel investors and venture capital 26 2

27 Issue No. 3: So how close are we, really? Answers: 1.Several large projects will come to fruition within 1-5 years (suborbital tourism, cheaper rockets, space habitats) 2.Admittedly, many basic tools & products are still missing 3.They cannot be expected to come from Government or Prime contractors 4.Venture-funded startups may fill need to fill the innovation gap 5.These startups represent new investment opportunity 27 3

28 ENTER NEWSPACE 28

29 Leverage and Catalyze 29 NEW ENTRANTS Source: National Security Space Technology Forum for Suborbital Missions, Feb Lackland AFB, TX.

30 Dennis Tito (April 2001-Soyuz TM 32) Mark Shuttleworth (April 2002-Soyuz TM 34) Gregory Olsen (October 2005-Soyuz TMA-7) Anousheh Ansari (Sept 2006 Soyuz TMA-9 Charles Simonyi (April 2007 & 2009-Soyuz TMA-10) Richard Garriott (Oct 2008-Soyuz TMA 13) Guy Laliberté, First Canadian Space Tourist (Sept 30, 2009Soyuz TMA 16) 30 ORBITAL SPACE TOURISM Source: Petra A. Illig, To have or not have the Right Stuff: Medical Guidelines for Space Flight Participants, Space Medicine Associates, Edmonton, Canada June 6, 2009.

31 31 SPACE SHIP ONE CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS Source: Jonathan Firth, Virgin Galactic: Out of this world and back, Project Director, Project Management Challenge 2008, February 2008.

32 32 SPACESHIP ONE AND THE ANSARI X-PRIZE Source: Jonathan Firth, Virgin Galactic: Out of this world and back, Project Director, Project Management Challenge 2008, February 2008.

33 33 SPACESHIP TWO Source: Jonathan Firth, Virgin Galactic: Out of this world and back, Project Director, Project Management Challenge 2008, February 2008.

34 34 NEW MEXICO SPACEPORT Source: Jonathan Firth, Virgin Galactic: Out of this world and back, Project Director, Project Management Challenge 2008, February 2008.

35 35 SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES (SPACEX) Source: Larry Williams, SpaceX Dragon: A Flexible Platform for Space, Space Economy Symposium, March 13, 2009.

36 Falcon 1 Falcon 9 Dragon 36 SPACEX FALCON FAMILY OF VEHICLES Source: Larry Williams, SpaceX Dragon: A Flexible Platform for Space, Space Economy Symposium, March 13, 2009.

37 37 SPACEX DRAGONLAB Source: Larry Williams, SpaceX Dragon: A Flexible Platform for Space, Space Economy Symposium, March 13, 2009.

38 Customer Target Date Vehicle Launch Site Falcon 1 Flight 4 Sept. 28, 2008* Falcon 1 Kwajalein Falcon 9 Maiden Flight 2009 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral ATSB (Malaysia) 2009 Falcon 1 Kwajalein NASA COTS Demo F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral Avanti Communications (UK) 2009 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral NASA COTS Demo F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral SpaceDev 2010 Falcon 1 Kwajalein NASA COTS Demo F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010 Falcon 1 Kwajalein Swedish Space Corp. (Sweden) 2010 Falcon 1 Kwajalein DragonLab Mission F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flight F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral Bigelow Aerospace 2011 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral DragonLab Mission F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flt F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flt F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flt F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flt F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flt F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flt F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flt F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flt F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flt F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flt F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS Flt F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral 38 SPACEX LAUNCH MANIFEST Source: Larry Williams, SpaceX Dragon: A Flexible Platform for Space, Space Economy Symposium, March 13, 2009.

39 39 SPACEX FALCON 9 DEVELOPMENT Source: Larry Williams, SpaceX Dragon: A Flexible Platform for Space, Space Economy Symposium, March 13, 2009.

40 Source: Bigelow Aerospace 40 BIGELOW AEROSPACE

41 Source: Blue Origin 41 BLUE ORIGIN

42 Source: XCOR Aerospace 42 XCOR AEROSPACE

43 Source: XCOR Aerospace 43 XCOR LYNX FLIGHT PROFILE

44 Source: XCOR Aerospace 44 XCOR LYNX AND LYNX MARK II

45 Source: Armadillo Aerospace 45 ARMADILLO AEROSPACE

46 Source: Masten Space Systems 46 MASTEN SPACE SYSTEMS

47 DEFINING NEWSPACE

48 - The Space Economy (NASA, 2007) - The full range of activities and the use of resources that create and provide value and benefits to human beings in the course of exploring, understanding and utilizing space. - New Space includes - Companies that are likely to be flatter, flexible organizations that are consumer focused, innovative, willing to take risks, and focused on new technology solutions. - In comparison to new space companies, - Traditional space companies are more likely to be highly structured and focused on established lines of business, often with the government. They are also more likely to be established in sectors with high value offerings, low sales volume, and low growth. 48 DEFINITIONS Source: Hay, J. et al, Global Space Industry: Refining the Definition of New Space, AIAA , AIAA SPACE 2009, September 2009, Pasadena, California,

49 49 COMPANY CULTURE ATTRIBUTES Source: Hay, J. et al, Global Space Industry: Refining the Definition of New Space, AIAA , AIAA SPACE 2009, September 2009, Pasadena, California,

50 50 COMPANY MARKET AND SERVICE OFFERINGS Source: Hay, J. et al, Global Space Industry: Refining the Definition of New Space, AIAA , AIAA SPACE 2009, September 2009, Pasadena, California,

51 51 COMPANY TECHNOLOGY ATTRIBUTES Source: Hay, J. et al, Global Space Industry: Refining the Definition of New Space, AIAA , AIAA SPACE 2009, September 2009, Pasadena, California,

52 Cumulative Investment in the Commercial Spaceflight Industry, 2009 (Millions, USD) Commercial Spaceflight Revenue: (Millions, USD) 52 Investment in Commercial Spaceflight by Source, 2009 COMMERCIAL SPACEFLIGHT REVENUE AND INVESTMENT Source: Guthrie, P., et al, Definition and Analysis of the Personal Spaceflight Industry, , AIAA , AIAA SPACE 2009, September 2009, Pasadena, California.

53 OTHER NEW COMMERCIAL SPACE OPPORTUNITIES/MARKETS 53

54 HIGH SPEED GLOBAL POINT TO POINT TRAVEL 54

55 GLOBAL HIGH SPEED POINT-TO-POINT (PTP) CARGO/PASSENGER TRAVEL 55

56 56 HOW POINT-TO-POINT FITS INTO A LONGER VISION FOR SPACE AND GLOBAL ACCESS

57 THE HIGH SPEED PTP TRADE SPACE 57

58 Evolved Versions of Suborbital Personal Spaceflight Vehicles Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo RocketPlane Global XP XCOR Lynx New Vehicles with Longer Range (Reusable or Expendable, Subsonic, Hypersonic) Aerion SBJ (Supersonic Business Jet) Supersonic Aerospace International, LLC (SAI) Quiet Supersonic Transport (QSST) Gulfstream Supersonic Business Jet Notional Hypersonic Vehicle (SEI) 58 SAMPLE CANDIDATE VEHICLES AND FLIGHT CONCEPTS All images are property of their respective copyright owners and are used here for educational purposes only

59 FUTURE AEROSPACEPORTS THAT MIGHT SERVE PTP MARKETS 59

60 SPACEWORKS COMMERCIAL REFERENCE PTP CONCEPT 60

61 Flight Velocity 4,700 km/h 1,909 km/h 2,205 km/h 2,205 km/h Range 12,000 km 7,800 km 7,408 km 8,890 km Payload 1,000 kg 1,143 kg 1,143 kg 1,143 kg Development Cost Acquisition Cost $4.46 B $1.4 B $2.5 B $2.5 B $323 M $80 M $80 M $80 M Hypersonic Concept Vehicle Aerion Supersonic Business Jet (SBJ) SAI Quiet Supersonic Transport (QSST) Gulfstream Quiet Supersonic Jet ( Whisperer ) VEHICLE SELECTION 61

62 SPACE SOLAR POWER 62

63 SPACE SOLAR POWER (SSP) SPACE SOLAR POWER (SSP) 63

64 Source: John Mankins 64 GROUND-BASED VS. SPACE-BASED SOLAR

65 EXPLORATION RELATED 65

66 $30,000,000 in cash prizes $20M 1st place, $5M 2nd place $5M in Performance Bonuses Open to world-wide competition Privately financed teams must: Land a robot on surface of the Moon Explore the Moon by moving at least 500m Transmit two Mooncasts, packages of high definition video and imagery Bonuses encourage: Roving further along the lunar surface Visiting man-made hardware Surviving a lunar night Diverse teams Finding water ice Source: Google Lunar X-PRIZE 66 GOOGLE LUNAR X-PRIZE

67 PROPELLANT DEPOTS 67

68 HUMAN EXPLOITATION OF ASTEROIDS AND COMETS 68

69 RESOURCE MINING 69

70 LONG TERM HABITATION: DYSON ASTEROID SHELL 70

71 SpaceWorks Commercial A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) 1200 Ashwood Parkway Suite 506 Atlanta, GA U.S.A. Phone: Fax: commercial@sei.aero w w w. s e i. a e r o 71