RF OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOI AND CHINA PERSPECTIVE

Transcription

1 RF OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOI AND CHINA PERSPECTIVE SEPTEMBER 16, 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. 632 Industrial Way Los Gatos CA USA (fax)

2 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES BACKGROUND Has been in business for over 25 years Previous experience in managing 1.5K+ engineers at Rockwell International, which included avionics, communications, and semiconductors. Strong emphasis on communications Interface with most global leaders in electronics industry, with customers in U.S., Europe, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China, India, etc Interface and support for major global corporations such as Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung, Sony, Toshiba, Apple, Cisco, Huawei, IBM, Fujitsu, NEC, Hitachi, Renesas, TSMC, STMicroelectronics, TI, ARM, Cadence, Synopsys, Mentor Graphics, Seagate, SK Hynix, Canon, Globalfoundries, SMIC, NXP Semiconductors, and others Participated with French Government on their advanced technology initiatives Interface and support for financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Carlyle, Blackstone, CitiGroup, Warburg Pincus, Walden, KKR, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas, Bain Capital, Bank of America, TPG, and others Involved with advanced technology concepts, price-sensitive platforms for smartphone and other high volume platforms, and high performance infrastructure companies on global basis Strong expertise in China. Published two books on China: China s Globalization (How China Becomes No. 1) and Chinamerica (McGraw Hill). Forbes blog contributor, China Daily articles, Global Times editorials, EE Times Asia, etc Involved in number of due diligence projects on number of IPOs Support for strategic initiatives for number of global technology leaders HAS HIGH MARKET SHARE ON TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY BUSINESS 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 2

3 TOP-LEVEL DRIVERS FOR RF Smartphones and tablet computers are highest volume drivers for wireless connectivity 1.5B units in With RF value of $14.00 per unit, market is $21B Chinese companies will manufacture 720M smartphones in 2015, which is more than 50% of total Bandwidth requirements are increasing, but also need very low power consumption Power amplifiers (PAs) represent key functionality block in smartphones, with four or five PAs per smartphone Skyworks Solutions is market share leader in PA front-end modules (FEMs) Each III-V compound PA requires SOI switch, with increase in several throws High percentage of switches is manufactured in SOI Filter technology is also critical. Joint venture of Skyworks and Panasonic will challenge position of Avago Technologies FBAR filters 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 3

4 TOP-LEVEL DRIVERS FOR RF (CONTINUED) Wi-Fi ac is mainstream protocol with one channel supporting 433Mbps and four channels at 1.69Gbps FD SOI is best technology for combo chips that include Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, where there is need for low power Combo chips with ac and ad are also becoming available Bluetooth Smart is already widely used, with large upside potential for IoT There is drive to reduce power consumption ZigBee is gaining momentum in smart home applications, including smart lighting NFC is in high growth mode for many applications, with Alibaba Group developing many innovative concepts for electronic payments Wireless infrastructure, including small cell base stations, is in high growth mode and increasing demands on technology RF MARKET HAS VERY HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL THROUGH INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 4

5 RF IC Market RF IC MARKET $70B $65.6B $56B $42B $28B $14B $0B $61.1B $56.8B $52.7B $48.8B $45.1B $41.6B $38.2B $34.9B $31.8B $28.9B $25.8B $22.8B $19.7B $16.7B $13.8B * Excludes WiGig. Power Amplifer Transciever Wi-Fi* WiGig Bluetooth NFC Radar ZigBee RF MEMS Other 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 5

6 KEY MARKET FACTORS RF market is projected to be $65.6B in 2025 compared to $25.8B in 2014, with CAGR of 8.9% Power amplifier module market is projected to be $22.0B in 2025 compared to $7.8B in 2014 This market includes filters, switches, envelop tracking, and support functions. Skyworks is clear market share leader Relatively small number of companies that are strong in PAs provide PA products for LTE Advanced Major opportunity for PAs for 5G Transceivers represent large market, with need for close synergy with PA FEM Continued potential to integrate with modems Wi-Fi combo market is large, and Broadcom is market share leader ac is well established, with new low power versions emerging Bluetooth Smart is established as mainstream capability, and Qualcomm-CSR is leader NFC technology is in high growth mode, and NXP Semiconductors is market share leader Digital payment will become mainstream in next few years, and security is key area 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 6

7 KEY MARKET FACTORS (CONTINUED) 77GHz radio RF products are starting volume production Infineon Technologies has shipped 10M units as of July 28, 2015 Google and others are evaluating radar RF products for gesture sensing 70GHz to 80GHz radar chips will have volume in billions of units in 2025 WiGig (802.11ad) is increasing volume rapidly for support of UHD video Also used for backhaul communications for small cells 5 th -generation processor (Skylake) of Intel supports WiGig ZigBee, ultra-low power Bluetooth, and ultra-low power Wi-Fi are being used for IoT RF MEMS has strong growth, with many emerging applications Backhaul communications will continue to use digital radios as well as support growth for photonics RF technology has growth potential for charging mobile devices NEW TECHNOLOGIES ARE RESULTING IN VERY HIGH GROWTH FOR RF PRODUCTS 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 7

8 China's RF IC Market CHINA S RF MARKET $35B $30.6B $28B $22.8B $25.3B $27.9B Power Amplifer $21B $18.2B $20.5B $16.1B $14B $14.1B $12.2B Transciever Wi-Fi* $10.2B WiGig $8.5B Bluetooth $7B $2.2B $2.8B $3.9B $5.2B $6.7B NFC Radar ZigBee RF MEMS $0B * Excludes WiGig. Other HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 8

9 CHINA S RF MARKET (CONTINUED) China s RF market will be $30.7B in 2025 compared to $6.7B in 2014, with a CAGR of 14.8% China will represent 46.7% of global RF market in 2025 compared to 26.1% in 2014 High percentage of China s RF market is based on foreign supply Acquisition of NXP s high power PA business unit by Beijing JianGuang Asset Management (JAC Capital)can strengthen competitiveness of Chinese RF ecosystem Critical to establish appropriate business model for new entity RDA Microelectronics was highly competitive in power amplifiers for mobile phones and Bluetooth RF connectivity is critical part of smartphones, smartwatches, IoT, smart home, and other applications RF products are supplied as standalone capabilities but also as integrated blocks Without access to RF IP, Chinese fabless companies will not be able to address key functions in many electronics areas TO DATE, CHINA HAS UNDERINVESTED IN RF. NEW BUSINESS MODELS ARE NEEDED FOR STRENGTHENING COMPETITIVENESS IN RF 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 9

10 TECHNOLOGY FACTORS Silicon-based technologies include SOI, FD SOI, SiGe, RF CMOS, LDMOS, and others Use of FD SOI and SOI is expected to increase over next 10 years due to support for low power, low noise, and other characteristics Strategic benefits for China to build supply chains from FD SOI and SOI and to support development of design skill sets required to optimize use of FD SOI and SOI III-V compounds will continue to be widely used for power amplifiers for smartphones However, there will be increased difficulties in competing with established companies at module level RF is area where it will become increasingly important to establish joint ventures to gain access to key areas of technology, including modeling, characterization, design, packaging and testing It can take up to 10 years to train highly skilled RF design and test engineers 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 10

11 TECHNOLOGY FACTORS (CONTINUED) RF is area where it will become increasingly important to establish joint ventures to gain access to key areas of technology, including modeling, characterization, design, packaging and testing It can take up to 10 years to train highly skilled RF design and test engineers Packaging and testing technologies are critical for RF Acquisition of STATS ChipPAC by Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology provides access to packaging technology Characterization of libraries and basis IP is critical factor in implementing designs effectively Best activities globally within this arena were in Burlington (Vermont) facility of IBM, which is currently in Globalfoundries HAVING DEEP UNDERSTANDING OF RF PROCESS AND DESIGN TECHNOLOGIES IS CRITICAL FOR GAINING MARKET SHARE 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 11

12 IoT Device Market IOT PERSPECTIVE IOT DEVICE MARKET $450B $404.7B $340.1B Consumer $300B $286.8B $242.8B $206.4B Medical $176.5B Automotive $150B $51.0B $60.4B $71.3B $82.8B $96.2B $129.9B $111.7B $151.3B Home Logistics $0B Other IOT DEVICES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CONNECTIVITY 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 12

13 Semiconductor Market for IoT Devices IOT PERSPECTIVE (CONTINUED) IOT SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET BY FUNCTION $100B $91.9B $80B $78.1B Consumer $66.7B $60B $57.3B $49.4B Medical $40B $20B $15.8B $17.7B $19.8B $22.4B $25.3B $28.7B $32.6B $37.3B $42.9B Automotive Home Logistics $0B HIGH GROWTH IN MANY APPLICATIONS Other 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 13

14 Semiconductor and Sensors Within IoT Devices IOT PERSPECTIVE (CONTINUED) IOT MARKET FOR SEMICONDUCTORS $125B $114.2B $100B $96.9B Semiconductor software $82.7B $75B $71.0B $53.1B $61.3B Semiconductor hardware $50B $25B $19.4B $21.8B $24.5B $27.6B $31.2B $35.5B $40.4B $46.2B Analog Processor Connectivity Memory Sensors $0B RF IS KEY IP 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 14

15 IOT PERSPECTIVE (CONTINUED) IOT PLATFORM Application Software Wireless Connectivity (Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and NFC) (Controllers and Processors) Embedded Nonvolatile Memory Analog Interfaces PMU Sensors CONNECTIVITY IS KEY CAPABILITY 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 15

16 IOT ISSUES IoT will use wide range of RF technologies Smartwatches and fitness trackers will need access to ultra-low power consumption RF functionality Smart camera and imaging products will need access to high bandwidth RF connectivity Many IoT semiconductor products will have integrated RF functionality in order to have very small form factors Ultra-low power processes will be required Candidates include 28nm ULP processes of TSMC and 22nm FD SOI processes of Globalfoundries 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 16

17 IOT ISSUES (CONTINUED) China market for IoT devices is expected to have high growth, with importance for increased supply in China Option is to provide RF connectivity (such as Bluetooth Smart) or integrated IoT solutions Much higher value in providing integrated design Important to build close and collaborative relationship with wafer processing partner for optimizing RF functionality While price is important, key requirement is strong market position IOT MARKET WILL REPRESENT MAJOR OPPORTUNITY IN CHINA FOR RF AND OTHER FUNCTIONALITIES 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 17

18 CONCLUSION Global RF market is in high growth China will become increasing percentage of global market Very high percentage of China market is being addressed by foreign companies By making investments over many years in technology leadership following companies have established global market share leadership: Skyworks (PA FEM) Broadcom (Wi-Fi combo) Qualcomm (Bluetooth Smart) Avago (filters) NXP (NFC) China can take similar approach of making investments for many years or establishing strategic relationships 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 18

19 CONCLUSION (CONTINUED) SOI is very important technology for many areas of RF China should establish SOI supply chain Also critical to establish design expertise for SOI 22nm FD SOI is best technology for many RF products China should also establish FD SOI supply chain Critical to establish design expertise for FD SOI China needs to increase investments in RF Buying existing Chinese companies will not strengthen global competitiveness Critical to establish partnership relationships RF IS HIGH GROWTH AREA WITH MANY OPPORTUNITIES 2015 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I9-PRS SLIDE 19