PREVISIONI DI MERCATO

Transcription

1 PREVISIONI DI MERCATO Daslav Brkic Senior Vice President Business and Technology Development Saipem 1

2 Jane Austen

3 Key factors for the future + Continuing growth in non - OECD economies Sputtering economic growth + Solid growth in energy demand Frequent political uncertainties + New oil & gas reserves Challenging and inaccessibile production sites + Significant technology advancements Rising costs + Expectations of stable oil & gas pricing Lack of consensus on environmental policies 3

4 Non-OECD economies drive energy consumption growth Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030 as the fuel mix gradually shifts away from oil and coal 4

5 Fuel substitution is the main story in the OECD Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030 while non-oecd sees all fuels expanding 5

6 Global Oil & Gas Resources 100 Oil shale EHO Tight/ Shale Oil Unconventional resources YTF and recovery increase CBM Shale Gas Tight Gas Gboe Coal-bed-methane Shale gas Tight gas Years of production at current pace Well defined resources Already produced View 2/3 years before 2012 view Tight / shale oil * Source: Total (March 2013) 6

7 Oil & Gas World Resources: Conv. & Unconv. Source: Total (March 2013) 7

8 Beyond exploiting new reserves Maintaining current production - a major challenge Source: Total (March 2013) 8

9 Optimistic Growth Expectations - New E&P Investments Global E&P Spending Forecast Source: Barclays Capital Global 2013 E&P Spending Update - June

10 Optimistic Growth Expectations - CAPEX, OPEX Spending in Upstream Upstream CAPEX and OPEX (*) Spending Forecast USD billion World +27% (*) OPEX figures do not include LNG and Pipelines OPEX Source: Saipem elaborations based on IHS Upstream Spend Report 2Q13 10

11 Optimistic Growth Expectations - Onshore Spending But beware rising costs 11

12 US Shale Gas Revolution Source: EIA, BP Statistical Review from Financial Times (2013) 12

13 Second Wave - U.S. Liquids Production Revival U.S. Oil and NGL Production: * mmboe/d Conventional Oil NGLs Tight Oil *Forecast numbers are production capacity **Assumes recent high oil prices above $80/bbl are maintained throughout the forecast period Source: IHS (2013) 13

14 Oil Production 2013 vs (MBPD) USA Canada Brazil Columbia Norway United Kingdom Russia Kazakhstan China Algeria Angola Saudi Arabia UAE Iran Iraq Libya Kuwait Nigeria Qatar Forecast 2013 Source: IEA, eni 14

15 Rapidly Changing Worldwide Trade Patterns + GAS GAS GAS

16 Major E&C opportunities in LNG but note the shift to new markets 16

17 Global Capacity and Project LNG Inventory But Will It All Get Built? Australia Qatar Indonesia Algeria Malaysia Nigeria Trinidad Egypt Oman Russia USA Brunei Yemen Papua New Guinea Abu Dhabi Angola Peru Norway Equatorial Guinea Libya Canada Mozambique Iran Iraq Cameroon Brazil Israel Venezuela Tanzania TOTAL Inventory: 845 mt Existing, 279 mt Committed, 95 mt Proposed, 472 mt N.B. An "inventory" of projects, not an outlook. Proposed projects have varying degrees of likelihood Million Tons per Year Source: IHS CERA. Note: mt = million metric tons. 17

18 Oil Price Forecast OPEC GCC (+) Spare Capacity Stable oil pricing forecast over the next years More abundant supplies vs. Strong demand Political instabilities Export difficulties Delays in new projects completion High production costs of some fields Possible minor oil price decrease in the medium term or stable oil price FRCST (+) KSA, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE 18

19 Example: Libya - Back to Square 1? 19

20 "Less Bang, More Buck" Rapidly Rising Project Execution Costs IHS Regional Upstream Cost Indexes Source: IHS (2013) 20

21 EPC Investments in Liquefaction facilities (US$ Bn) Construction Delay ( Months) Delays in Major Projects Execution Example: LNG Australia other Asia-Pacific Atlantic Middle East Africa Russia & Caspian Europe Med. & Middle East North America Central America South America Asia-Pacific Year of FID Construction delay = difference between online date at FID and actual or expected online date 21

22 Most new oil and gas production coming from unconventional sources Source: Douglas-Westwood (2012) Massive shift from conventional to unconventional, from traditional to new 22

23 Global Deepwater Capex Africa Source: Douglas-Westwood World Deepwater Market Forecast

24 FPSO and FLNG Forecast FPSO FLNG USD billion +45% USD billion NASCENT INDUSTRY +741% Source: Saipem elaborations based on IHS Upstream Spend Report 2Q13 24

25 Return of the Supermajors New unconventional fields require IOC technology expertise Fastest to acquire new unconventional reserves Most flagship projects today are JVs IOC/NOC Some new SuperNOCs 25

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27 BRIC Economic Slowdown Example: Brazil GDP Growth Rate, %/y Source: Thomas Reuters, Economist Intelligence Unit 27

28 Delays in FID and Project Start GCC Project Awards Current Market Slowdown in GCC Project Awards In USD Billions Source: Contaxpartners (Oct. 2013) 28

29 Growth Expected to Continue, but at a Slower Pace Growth in Upstream (*) Regional CAPEX (*) Including LNG and Pipelines Source: IHS Upstream Spend Report 2Q13 29

30 Conclusions Solid growth prospects in developing economies and oil & gas rich countries Most attractive prospects in new markets and with new technologies Many uncertainties remain Growth slowdown possible in the mid-term 30