The Economist/YouGov Poll
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- Godfrey Armstrong
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1 The Economist/YouGov Poll Week 17 Fieldwork: 24th-26th March 2008 Full set of tracker and topical questions on the presidential candidates Sample: 1,000 adult Americans Margin of error: +/-4% The margin of error measures only sampling variability, and does not adjust for other types of non- sampling error, such as non-response, panel participation, and misreporting. The following tables show data from The Economist/YouGov poll, which will track popular opinion ahead of America s presidential election on November 4th Polling is carried out by YouGov/Polimetrix for publication in The Economist, and on Economist.com every Thursday at Topical questions are set by The Economist in consultation with YouGov/Polimetrix.
2 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 2 Who would you like to be the Democratic nominee for President? Base: Valid Cases Hillary Clinton % 49% 0% 0% 45% 50% 62% 50% 49% 48% 46% 48% 64% 55% 22% 68% 50% 48% 45% Barack Obama % 43% 0% 0% 52% 40% 29% 43% 43% 44% 46% 44% 29% 36% 75% 26% 40% 46% 50% Not sure % 8% 0% 0% 4% 10% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 10% 3% 6% 9% 6% 5%
3 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 3 If the next election for President were held today and the Democratic candidate were Hillary Clinton and the Republican candidate were John McCain, for whom would you vote? Base: Valid Cases Hillary Clinton % 74% 4% 31% 71% 43% 10% 35% 44% 44% 39% 37% 41% 35% 59% 49% 46% 30% 44% John McCain % 11% 92% 49% 10% 41% 83% 53% 40% 35% 43% 51% 54% 51% 21% 41% 38% 55% 48% Not sure % 15% 4% 19% 19% 16% 6% 13% 16% 21% 18% 12% 5% 14% 20% 10% 16% 15% 9%
4 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 4 If, instead, the Democratic candidate were Barack Obama and the Republican candidate were John McCain, for whom would you vote? Base: Valid Cases Barack Obama % 68% 6% 48% 80% 47% 11% 42% 42% 51% 47% 38% 31% 36% 83% 46% 43% 42% 48% John McCain % 17% 87% 38% 9% 37% 79% 47% 41% 26% 40% 49% 61% 50% 10% 36% 40% 46% 45% Not sure % 15% 7% 14% 11% 16% 10% 11% 17% 23% 13% 12% 8% 14% 7% 18% 17% 12% 7%
5 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 5 If the Democratic candidate for President in November was Hillary Clinton and the Republican candidate was John McCain, who do you think would win? Base: Valid Cases Hillary Clinton would probably win the election 25% 46% 6% 16% 41% 27% 11% 22% 28% 31% 27% 22% 21% 21% 35% 40% 31% 18% 24% The election would be very close 28% 27% 23% 34% 32% 30% 24% 27% 29% 26% 28% 28% 31% 31% 21% 17% 27% 28% 29% John McCain would probably win the election 38% 17% 65% 44% 18% 36% 59% 45% 32% 30% 37% 42% 41% 39% 31% 39% 32% 44% 44% Not sure % 9% 6% 6% 9% 7% 6% 6% 11% 13% 7% 8% 7% 9% 12% 4% 10% 10% 2%
6 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 6 If instead the Democratic candidate was Barack Obama and the Republican candidate was John McCain, who do you think would win? Base: Valid Cases Barack Obama would probably win the election 37% 54% 14% 41% 63% 40% 18% 37% 38% 51% 41% 32% 27% 33% 67% 40% 38% 36% 43% The election would be very close 24% 21% 30% 26% 22% 23% 30% 25% 24% 24% 23% 26% 24% 25% 19% 26% 24% 25% 21% John McCain would probably win the election 30% 17% 49% 27% 9% 28% 44% 32% 27% 12% 30% 34% 42% 33% 10% 29% 26% 30% 35% Not sure % 7% 8% 6% 7% 9% 8% 5% 11% 14% 7% 7% 8% 10% 4% 6% 11% 8% 1%
7 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 7 Which of these is the most important issue for you? Base: Valid Cases The war in Iraq % 16% 8% 16% 23% 13% 11% 16% 11% 16% 13% 12% 18% 14% 9% 17% 12% 17% 13% The economy % 39% 33% 34% 33% 40% 32% 37% 35% 28% 42% 37% 26% 35% 45% 32% 36% 38% 38% Immigration % 3% 17% 11% 5% 7% 16% 11% 8% 8% 5% 12% 13% 10% 2% 10% 7% 9% 12% The Environment and global warming 4% 3% 1% 6% 8% 4% 1% 3% 5% 4% 7% 3% 2% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 5% Terrorism % 3% 22% 9% 1% 7% 22% 14% 7% 7% 8% 12% 14% 11% 5% 9% 8% 10% 13% Gay Rights % 3% 1% 2% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 6% 2% 0% 0% 1% 3% 4% 1% 3% 2% Education % 7% 5% 7% 8% 9% 4% 4% 9% 14% 10% 2% 1% 6% 10% 7% 7% 6% 6% Health care % 17% 6% 10% 15% 13% 6% 8% 17% 16% 10% 14% 9% 12% 15% 15% 17% 9% 6% Social Security % 7% 6% 6% 3% 6% 7% 5% 7% 2% 3% 7% 16% 7% 7% 2% 8% 4% 5%
8 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 8 Would you say things in this country today are... Base: Valid Cases Generally headed in the right direction 14% 3% 31% 12% 4% 10% 29% 19% 9% 8% 14% 16% 18% 15% 7% 17% 12% 16% 20% Off on the wrong track % 89% 54% 80% 90% 79% 61% 71% 79% 83% 77% 72% 68% 73% 85% 77% 79% 73% 74% Not sure % 7% 15% 8% 6% 12% 10% 9% 12% 9% 9% 12% 13% 12% 9% 6% 10% 11% 6%
9 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 9 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Base: Valid Cases Strongly Approve % 2% 19% 6% 3% 5% 16% 7% 9% 4% 7% 8% 15% 9% 2% 7% 8% 7% 7% Somewhat Approve % 4% 53% 22% 4% 16% 50% 27% 21% 16% 22% 27% 31% 27% 7% 20% 19% 31% 26% Somewhat Disapprove % 13% 19% 17% 5% 22% 17% 16% 18% 20% 14% 18% 14% 18% 13% 14% 19% 14% 11% Strongly Disapprove % 79% 7% 53% 86% 53% 17% 48% 48% 54% 53% 44% 39% 43% 75% 57% 50% 45% 55% Not Sure % 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 5% 5% 4% 2% 1% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 1%
10 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 10 Overall, do you approve of the way that the Democrats in the United States Congress are handling their job? Base: Valid Cases Strongly Approve % 14% 1% 3% 12% 5% 2% 5% 7% 10% 6% 5% 2% 5% 13% 9% 8% 5% 4% Somewhat Approve % 47% 6% 24% 39% 33% 10% 24% 28% 28% 29% 26% 20% 24% 39% 27% 29% 25% 21% Somewhat Disapprove % 25% 26% 30% 30% 30% 22% 25% 28% 26% 25% 27% 27% 25% 27% 34% 23% 27% 40% Strongly Disapprove % 7% 63% 38% 11% 24% 63% 44% 22% 21% 28% 37% 48% 38% 11% 23% 27% 37% 34% Not Sure % 7% 4% 6% 8% 8% 3% 2% 15% 16% 11% 5% 3% 9% 10% 7% 13% 6% 1%
11 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 11 Do you think the value of your home will increase or decrease in the next 12 months? Base: Valid Cases Increase % 9% 20% 18% 12% 13% 21% 15% 17% 18% 16% 15% 16% 16% 12% 17% 14% 18% 19% Stay about the same % 35% 44% 37% 30% 38% 46% 39% 36% 25% 38% 40% 47% 39% 32% 33% 33% 38% 44% Decrease % 39% 26% 36% 40% 38% 24% 34% 32% 38% 29% 34% 30% 34% 33% 28% 34% 32% 37% Not sure % 18% 9% 9% 18% 11% 10% 12% 16% 20% 17% 11% 7% 11% 23% 23% 19% 12% 0%
12 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 12 Do you think your family's income will increase or decrease in the next 12 months? Base: Valid Cases Increase % 22% 28% 24% 27% 19% 29% 27% 22% 36% 30% 19% 11% 22% 29% 33% 21% 29% 29% Stay about the same % 49% 55% 54% 44% 55% 54% 51% 52% 34% 45% 56% 75% 54% 44% 42% 51% 51% 54% Decrease % 24% 14% 19% 24% 21% 13% 19% 19% 23% 18% 20% 14% 20% 19% 16% 22% 17% 15% Not sure % 5% 3% 3% 6% 5% 4% 3% 7% 7% 8% 4% 1% 4% 8% 8% 7% 3% 2%
13 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 13 How worried are you that you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job for any reason? Base: Valid Cases Very worried % 24% 11% 20% 21% 22% 14% 15% 24% 17% 27% 20% 6% 18% 30% 20% 26% 15% 13% Somewhat worried % 36% 32% 31% 36% 35% 29% 36% 31% 39% 29% 35% 28% 33% 34% 32% 33% 35% 33% Not very worried at all % 34% 54% 46% 38% 39% 55% 47% 38% 37% 39% 41% 62% 44% 30% 42% 34% 48% 51% Not sure % 7% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 3% 7% 7% 5% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 3% 3%
14 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 14 Would you say Barack Obama is... Base: Valid Cases Very liberal % 15% 63% 33% 14% 24% 66% 44% 23% 22% 27% 39% 45% 36% 18% 29% 25% 38% 45% Somewhat liberal % 32% 14% 29% 44% 25% 14% 25% 23% 31% 26% 19% 24% 24% 30% 20% 21% 25% 32% Moderate % 24% 9% 24% 25% 28% 9% 18% 21% 20% 21% 20% 14% 18% 22% 28% 20% 21% 18% Somewhat conservative % 5% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 2% 4% 1% 4% 4% 2% 2% 7% 7% 5% 2% 1% Very Conservative % 5% 2% 1% 4% 2% 1% 1% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 7% 2% 5% 1% 0% Not sure % 19% 10% 12% 9% 18% 7% 9% 25% 22% 18% 16% 14% 18% 16% 14% 25% 12% 4%
15 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 15 Do you think Barack Obama... Base: Valid Cases Says what he believes % 54% 23% 52% 63% 50% 24% 43% 44% 55% 46% 41% 30% 39% 76% 47% 42% 43% 50% Says what he thinks people want to hear 56% 46% 77% 48% 37% 50% 76% 57% 56% 45% 54% 59% 70% 61% 24% 53% 58% 57% 50%
16 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 16 Regardless of whether you agree with him, do you like Barack Obama as a person? Base: Valid Cases Like a lot % 45% 12% 36% 53% 34% 14% 33% 29% 36% 31% 31% 21% 25% 73% 26% 27% 32% 38% Like somewhat % 30% 46% 39% 28% 38% 45% 37% 36% 33% 35% 37% 43% 39% 18% 41% 36% 39% 35% Dislike % 15% 31% 15% 10% 17% 29% 20% 19% 17% 20% 20% 22% 21% 4% 23% 21% 17% 20% Not sure % 11% 12% 10% 8% 11% 12% 10% 16% 14% 14% 12% 14% 15% 5% 10% 16% 12% 7%
17 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 17 Would you say Hillary Clinton is... Base: Valid Cases Very liberal % 14% 67% 35% 15% 26% 65% 42% 27% 27% 29% 39% 45% 38% 19% 29% 28% 40% 42% Somewhat liberal % 32% 18% 30% 36% 28% 20% 23% 27% 21% 28% 25% 29% 25% 20% 32% 23% 25% 31% Moderate % 27% 5% 14% 25% 20% 6% 16% 16% 15% 18% 16% 13% 15% 18% 17% 19% 12% 19% Somewhat conservative % 8% 1% 10% 12% 8% 3% 8% 7% 10% 7% 7% 3% 6% 11% 10% 6% 10% 5% Very Conservative % 5% 3% 1% 4% 3% 2% 2% 4% 6% 4% 2% 1% 3% 6% 3% 5% 2% 1% Not sure % 14% 6% 10% 8% 15% 4% 8% 19% 21% 14% 12% 10% 13% 25% 8% 18% 11% 2%
18 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 18 Do you think Hillary Clinton... Base: Valid Cases Says what she believes % 49% 10% 19% 42% 29% 14% 19% 38% 33% 31% 27% 22% 26% 34% 40% 36% 22% 22% Says what she thinks people want to hear 71% 51% 90% 81% 58% 71% 86% 81% 62% 67% 69% 73% 78% 74% 66% 60% 64% 78% 78%
19 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 19 Regardless of whether you agree with her, do you like Hillary Clinton as a person? Base: Valid Cases Like a lot % 42% 1% 10% 33% 20% 6% 12% 25% 21% 20% 18% 16% 15% 29% 31% 24% 14% 17% Like somewhat % 38% 15% 31% 35% 35% 15% 29% 30% 25% 33% 30% 22% 28% 38% 29% 33% 25% 29% Dislike % 18% 81% 55% 29% 41% 75% 56% 39% 47% 41% 47% 60% 51% 29% 38% 36% 55% 52% Not sure % 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 7% 7% 6% 5% 2% 6% 5% 1% 7% 5% 2%
20 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 20 Would you say John McCain is... Base: Valid Cases Very liberal % 5% 3% 4% 3% 1% 6% 5% 2% 6% 2% 4% 2% 3% 10% 1% 4% 4% 2% Somewhat liberal % 4% 13% 10% 4% 6% 15% 11% 6% 7% 6% 10% 10% 9% 0% 9% 7% 8% 9% Moderate % 17% 33% 24% 15% 25% 31% 28% 19% 15% 25% 26% 21% 24% 17% 20% 20% 26% 29% Somewhat conservative % 27% 40% 36% 35% 33% 36% 37% 28% 34% 30% 29% 45% 34% 17% 34% 27% 36% 39% Very Conservative % 22% 6% 14% 29% 16% 5% 12% 17% 17% 14% 14% 13% 13% 21% 16% 16% 13% 17% Not sure % 25% 5% 11% 14% 20% 6% 7% 29% 21% 22% 17% 9% 16% 34% 19% 26% 13% 4%
21 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 21 Do you think John McCain... Base: Valid Cases Says what he believes % 46% 73% 57% 48% 58% 65% 61% 53% 54% 51% 59% 65% 60% 39% 53% 50% 60% 60% Says what he thinks people want to hear 43% 54% 27% 43% 52% 42% 35% 39% 47% 46% 49% 41% 35% 40% 61% 47% 50% 40% 40%
22 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 22 Regardless of whether you agree with him, do you like John McCain as a person? Base: Valid Cases Like a lot % 7% 26% 15% 8% 16% 18% 16% 13% 9% 14% 13% 25% 17% 4% 8% 11% 18% 14% Like somewhat % 36% 59% 53% 34% 49% 58% 54% 40% 40% 41% 53% 49% 47% 37% 50% 41% 53% 53% Dislike % 36% 8% 22% 43% 18% 15% 22% 23% 25% 25% 22% 17% 20% 38% 25% 24% 19% 28% Not sure % 21% 7% 10% 15% 16% 8% 8% 24% 27% 20% 12% 8% 16% 21% 17% 24% 10% 5%
23 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 23 Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following candidates for President? John McCain Base: Valid Cases Very favorable % 4% 26% 10% 3% 15% 16% 12% 12% 7% 11% 14% 20% 14% 5% 11% 12% 15% 11% Somewhat favorable % 31% 51% 47% 25% 43% 52% 41% 41% 36% 41% 42% 47% 42% 25% 51% 42% 43% 37% Somewhat unfavorable % 31% 15% 25% 32% 24% 19% 25% 22% 21% 23% 25% 22% 23% 31% 16% 20% 24% 31% Very unfavorable % 30% 5% 15% 34% 14% 11% 19% 16% 25% 18% 16% 10% 15% 33% 20% 18% 15% 20% Not sure % 4% 2% 3% 5% 5% 2% 2% 9% 10% 8% 3% 1% 6% 6% 3% 9% 3% 1%
24 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 24 Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following candidates for President? Hillary Clinton Base: Valid Cases Very favorable % 46% 2% 11% 36% 23% 7% 16% 27% 26% 20% 20% 22% 18% 26% 38% 26% 17% 22% Somewhat favorable % 28% 7% 18% 25% 26% 6% 17% 21% 17% 24% 20% 11% 19% 30% 12% 23% 16% 18% Somewhat unfavorable % 12% 20% 24% 20% 18% 17% 18% 18% 17% 19% 17% 18% 19% 15% 16% 17% 21% 15% Very unfavorable % 13% 71% 46% 17% 32% 70% 48% 31% 34% 35% 41% 49% 42% 27% 34% 31% 45% 45% Not sure % 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 3% 4% 1% 2% 0% 2% 3% 0% 3% 1% 0%
25 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 25 Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following candidates for President? Barack Obama Base: Valid Cases Very favorable % 47% 6% 33% 56% 32% 9% 28% 29% 35% 30% 27% 23% 22% 73% 32% 30% 27% 33% Somewhat favorable % 27% 21% 27% 26% 32% 18% 25% 27% 27% 26% 27% 21% 27% 17% 29% 26% 28% 24% Somewhat unfavorable % 10% 20% 15% 8% 15% 20% 15% 15% 10% 16% 16% 18% 16% 5% 15% 13% 18% 17% Very unfavorable % 14% 51% 23% 8% 18% 52% 30% 24% 23% 24% 29% 36% 31% 4% 24% 28% 26% 25% Not sure % 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 5% 6% 4% 2% 1% 4% 1% 0% 4% 2% 1%
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