2016 Winter Forum. Weather Overview and Forecast September 22, 2016
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1 2016 Winter Forum Weather Overview and Forecast September 22, 2016
2 Jeff Jensen Bachelor of Science Meteorology Iowa State University Broadcast Meteorologist Alabama, Kentucky, Iowa and Nebraska Customer Service Representative Omaha, Nebraska present 2
3 Welcome to the Kansas City metro! 3
4 Fall: September October November Winter: December January February Spring: March April May The Seasons 4
5 Review of Jeff s Forecast 5
6 Last Fall s Forecast September October November TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 6
7 7
8 8
9 November 1,
10 November 16, 2015 Nighttime tornado near Groom, Texas 10
11 11
12 12
13 Last Fall s Forecast September October November TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 13
14 Actual Fall Departures September October November TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 14
15 Last Winter s Forecast December January February TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 15
16 December 1,
17 December 24, across Omaha, Nebraska 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 January 1,
22 January 22-24, 2016 First major snowstorm of
23 January 22-24, 2016 Heaviest recorded snowfall at New York City airports 23
24 January 22-24, 2016 Most cars looked like this 24
25 January 22-24, 2016 Some had more fun digging out than others 25
26 26
27 February 1,
28 Late Winter Severe Weather February 23, 2016 Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana waterspouts,
29 Late Winter Severe Weather February 24, 2016 Appomattox, Virginia,
30 Late Winter Severe Weather February 24, 2016 first winter tornado deaths in Virginia,
31 March 1,
32 32
33 Last Winter s Forecast December January February TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 33
34 Actual Winter Departures December January February TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 34
35 Last Spring s Forecast March April May TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 35
36 March 23, 2016 Easter Blizzard Denver, Colorado snowfall =
37 March 23, 2016 Easter Blizzard Sioux City, Iowa snowfall = 12 37
38 March 23, 2016 Easter Blizzard Omaha, Nebraska snowfall = 0 38
39 40
40 Heating Season Results Northern s Market Area temperatures were 10% warmer than normal during the heating season. ( Nov. 1 to March 31 ) 42
41 Heating Season Results SYSTEM-WEIGHTED VS. NORMAL TEMPERATURES 43
42 April 1,
43 A fairly normal winter! Omaha s Normal Seasonal Snowfall Snowfall 27.4 (+0.3 ) 45
44 Another drier than normal winter! Minneapolis Normal Seasonal Snowfall Snowfall 36.7 (-8.6 ) 46
45 Another drier than normal winter! Kansas City s Normal Seasonal Snowfall Snowfall 5.9 (-14.2 ) 47
46 Snowfall 24.1 Bismarck 81.3 Duluth 68.5 Sioux Falls 27.4 Omaha 36.7 Minneapolis 5.9 Kansas City 29.1 Des Moines 10.9 St. Louis 50.0 Green Bay 31.2 Chicago 13.3 Indianapolis 35.3 Detroit 15.3 Lexington 48
47 Winter s Temperature Departures November 2014 March 2015 Denver -0.5 Minneapolis Des Moines Chicago -6.4 Kansas City -4.7 Oklahoma City -3.3 Cleveland
48 Last Winter s Temperature Departures November 2015 March 2016 Denver +1.4 Minneapolis Des Moines Chicago +4.9 Kansas City +5.1 Oklahoma City +2.7 Cleveland
49 51
50 Omaha, Nebraska April 27, nd & Dodge Street looking north 53
51 Lincoln, Nebraska May 9, 2016 Tornado 54
52 Lincoln, Nebraska May 9, 2016 Golf ball size hail on a golf green 55
53 Lincoln, Nebraska May 9, 2016 Softball size hail
54 Lincoln, Nebraska May 9, 2016 Flash flooding due to nearly 10 of rain 57
55 Sulphur, Oklahoma May 9, 2016 Wedge tornado 58
56 Sulphur, Oklahoma May 9, 2016 Phone app makes it easy to armchair chase 59
57 Omaha, Nebraska May 10, 2016 Plowing hail, from pea to golfball size 60
58 Omaha, Nebraska May 10, 2016 Pile of hail not snow! 61
59 Omaha, Nebraska May 10, 2016 Street full of hail and flood water 62
60 Super El Nino is Gone May 22, 2016 Pacific surface water has cooled along the Equator 63
61 64
62 Last Spring s Forecast March April May TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 65
63 Actual Spring Departures March April May TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 66
64 Weather Trivia Time The Northern Lights are called the Aurora Borealis. What are the Southern Lights known as? Aurora Borealis Aurora Australis Aurora ukidding there are no Southern Lights 67
65 Weather Trivia Time The Northern Lights are called the Aurora Borealis. What are the Southern Lights known as? Aurora Borealis Aurora Australis Aurora ukidding there are no Southern Lights 68
66 Drought Conditions Improve 70
67 Drought Conditions Improve 71
68 Long Range Forecasting 72
69 The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Technique 73
70 The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Technique Last September lots of brown! 74
71 Sunspots 75
72 Sunspot cycles 76
73 Sunspots Current solar activity 77
74 Snow Cover in the Northern Hemisphere September 12,
75 El Nino 79
76 Very weak La Nina in place September 12,
77 Weak La Nina Forecast to fade away heading into Winter September 13,
78 Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model from Australia CURRENT FORECAST 83
79 International Research Institute for Climate and Society STRONG EL NINO 84
80 International Research Institute for Climate and Society 85
81 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies September 2015 Warm waters Warmer water 86
82 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies September 2016 Cooler waters 87
83 Monthly Historic El Nino/La Nina Data 1950-today 88
84 Monthly Historic El Nino/La Nina Data 1950-today 89
85 A Look at Jeff s Forecast 90
86 NOAA Fall Outlook September October November TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 91
87 Fall Long Range Forecast, Temperatures The Weather Network 92
88 Jeff s Fall Forecast September October November TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 93
89 NOAA Winter Outlook December January February TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 94
90 Winter Long Range Forecast, Temperatures The Weather Network 95
91 Jeff s Winter Forecast December January February TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 96
92 NOAA Spring Outlook March April May TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 97
93 Jeff s Spring Forecast March April May TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 98
94 To conclude. 99
95 FALL: West of Rockies Above normal temps Ohio Valley/New England Above normal rainfall Plains/Midwest Mild early, then cooling 100
96 FALL: West of Rockies Above normal temps Ohio Valley/New England Above normal rainfall Plains/Midwest Mild early, then cooling WINTER: East of Rockies Cooler than last winter West of Rockies Mild temperatures Midwest Near/above Normal snowfall 101
97 FALL: West of Rockies Above normal temps Ohio Valley/New England Above normal rainfall Plains/Midwest Mild early, then cooling WINTER: East of Rockies Cooler than last winter West of Rockies Mild temperatures Midwest Near/above Normal snowfall SPRING: Southern States Mild Northern States Chilly Midwest into New England Wet 102
98 Thank You! That s a wrap for this year! 103
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