2016 Winter Forum. Weather Overview and Forecast September 22, 2016

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1 2016 Winter Forum Weather Overview and Forecast September 22, 2016

2 Jeff Jensen Bachelor of Science Meteorology Iowa State University Broadcast Meteorologist Alabama, Kentucky, Iowa and Nebraska Customer Service Representative Omaha, Nebraska present 2

3 Welcome to the Kansas City metro! 3

4 Fall: September October November Winter: December January February Spring: March April May The Seasons 4

5 Review of Jeff s Forecast 5

6 Last Fall s Forecast September October November TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 6

7 7

8 8

9 November 1,

10 November 16, 2015 Nighttime tornado near Groom, Texas 10

11 11

12 12

13 Last Fall s Forecast September October November TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 13

14 Actual Fall Departures September October November TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 14

15 Last Winter s Forecast December January February TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 15

16 December 1,

17 December 24, across Omaha, Nebraska 17

18 18

19 19

20 20

21 January 1,

22 January 22-24, 2016 First major snowstorm of

23 January 22-24, 2016 Heaviest recorded snowfall at New York City airports 23

24 January 22-24, 2016 Most cars looked like this 24

25 January 22-24, 2016 Some had more fun digging out than others 25

26 26

27 February 1,

28 Late Winter Severe Weather February 23, 2016 Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana waterspouts,

29 Late Winter Severe Weather February 24, 2016 Appomattox, Virginia,

30 Late Winter Severe Weather February 24, 2016 first winter tornado deaths in Virginia,

31 March 1,

32 32

33 Last Winter s Forecast December January February TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 33

34 Actual Winter Departures December January February TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 34

35 Last Spring s Forecast March April May TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 35

36 March 23, 2016 Easter Blizzard Denver, Colorado snowfall =

37 March 23, 2016 Easter Blizzard Sioux City, Iowa snowfall = 12 37

38 March 23, 2016 Easter Blizzard Omaha, Nebraska snowfall = 0 38

39 40

40 Heating Season Results Northern s Market Area temperatures were 10% warmer than normal during the heating season. ( Nov. 1 to March 31 ) 42

41 Heating Season Results SYSTEM-WEIGHTED VS. NORMAL TEMPERATURES 43

42 April 1,

43 A fairly normal winter! Omaha s Normal Seasonal Snowfall Snowfall 27.4 (+0.3 ) 45

44 Another drier than normal winter! Minneapolis Normal Seasonal Snowfall Snowfall 36.7 (-8.6 ) 46

45 Another drier than normal winter! Kansas City s Normal Seasonal Snowfall Snowfall 5.9 (-14.2 ) 47

46 Snowfall 24.1 Bismarck 81.3 Duluth 68.5 Sioux Falls 27.4 Omaha 36.7 Minneapolis 5.9 Kansas City 29.1 Des Moines 10.9 St. Louis 50.0 Green Bay 31.2 Chicago 13.3 Indianapolis 35.3 Detroit 15.3 Lexington 48

47 Winter s Temperature Departures November 2014 March 2015 Denver -0.5 Minneapolis Des Moines Chicago -6.4 Kansas City -4.7 Oklahoma City -3.3 Cleveland

48 Last Winter s Temperature Departures November 2015 March 2016 Denver +1.4 Minneapolis Des Moines Chicago +4.9 Kansas City +5.1 Oklahoma City +2.7 Cleveland

49 51

50 Omaha, Nebraska April 27, nd & Dodge Street looking north 53

51 Lincoln, Nebraska May 9, 2016 Tornado 54

52 Lincoln, Nebraska May 9, 2016 Golf ball size hail on a golf green 55

53 Lincoln, Nebraska May 9, 2016 Softball size hail

54 Lincoln, Nebraska May 9, 2016 Flash flooding due to nearly 10 of rain 57

55 Sulphur, Oklahoma May 9, 2016 Wedge tornado 58

56 Sulphur, Oklahoma May 9, 2016 Phone app makes it easy to armchair chase 59

57 Omaha, Nebraska May 10, 2016 Plowing hail, from pea to golfball size 60

58 Omaha, Nebraska May 10, 2016 Pile of hail not snow! 61

59 Omaha, Nebraska May 10, 2016 Street full of hail and flood water 62

60 Super El Nino is Gone May 22, 2016 Pacific surface water has cooled along the Equator 63

61 64

62 Last Spring s Forecast March April May TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 65

63 Actual Spring Departures March April May TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 66

64 Weather Trivia Time The Northern Lights are called the Aurora Borealis. What are the Southern Lights known as? Aurora Borealis Aurora Australis Aurora ukidding there are no Southern Lights 67

65 Weather Trivia Time The Northern Lights are called the Aurora Borealis. What are the Southern Lights known as? Aurora Borealis Aurora Australis Aurora ukidding there are no Southern Lights 68

66 Drought Conditions Improve 70

67 Drought Conditions Improve 71

68 Long Range Forecasting 72

69 The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Technique 73

70 The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Technique Last September lots of brown! 74

71 Sunspots 75

72 Sunspot cycles 76

73 Sunspots Current solar activity 77

74 Snow Cover in the Northern Hemisphere September 12,

75 El Nino 79

76 Very weak La Nina in place September 12,

77 Weak La Nina Forecast to fade away heading into Winter September 13,

78 Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model from Australia CURRENT FORECAST 83

79 International Research Institute for Climate and Society STRONG EL NINO 84

80 International Research Institute for Climate and Society 85

81 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies September 2015 Warm waters Warmer water 86

82 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies September 2016 Cooler waters 87

83 Monthly Historic El Nino/La Nina Data 1950-today 88

84 Monthly Historic El Nino/La Nina Data 1950-today 89

85 A Look at Jeff s Forecast 90

86 NOAA Fall Outlook September October November TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 91

87 Fall Long Range Forecast, Temperatures The Weather Network 92

88 Jeff s Fall Forecast September October November TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 93

89 NOAA Winter Outlook December January February TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 94

90 Winter Long Range Forecast, Temperatures The Weather Network 95

91 Jeff s Winter Forecast December January February TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 96

92 NOAA Spring Outlook March April May TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 97

93 Jeff s Spring Forecast March April May TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION 98

94 To conclude. 99

95 FALL: West of Rockies Above normal temps Ohio Valley/New England Above normal rainfall Plains/Midwest Mild early, then cooling 100

96 FALL: West of Rockies Above normal temps Ohio Valley/New England Above normal rainfall Plains/Midwest Mild early, then cooling WINTER: East of Rockies Cooler than last winter West of Rockies Mild temperatures Midwest Near/above Normal snowfall 101

97 FALL: West of Rockies Above normal temps Ohio Valley/New England Above normal rainfall Plains/Midwest Mild early, then cooling WINTER: East of Rockies Cooler than last winter West of Rockies Mild temperatures Midwest Near/above Normal snowfall SPRING: Southern States Mild Northern States Chilly Midwest into New England Wet 102

98 Thank You! That s a wrap for this year! 103

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