Predicting the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the Puget Sound Region
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1 All photos from WA Department of Ecology King Tide Photo Initiative Predicting the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the Puget Sound Region Kristan Blackhart and Jon Medlin, University of Washington
2 Project Rationale Sea level rise (SLR) over the next 50 to 100 years could be on the order of inches to meters Information about the extent and potential effects is important for planning and management
3 Goals and Objectives Goal #1: Predict the general patterns of sea level rise (SLR) across the Puget Sound region Phase 1: Predict inundation impacts for a range of SLR scenarios Phase 2: Quantify a range of coastal variables to develop a coastal vulnerability index (CVI)
4 Goals and Objectives Goal #2: Develop a method for analyzing impacts at the county or city level Use Pierce County as a demonstration project Model inundation and a range of human-dimension impacts, including population, economics, ecological, and cultural impacts Develop a repeatable methodology for local-scale analysis of SLR impacts
5 Project Scope Scenario SLR Height Reasoning SLR13 13 Puget Sound Year 2100 very low estimate 1 SLR22 22 Puget Sound Year 2050 very high estimate 1 SLR38 38 Puget Sound Year 2100 medium estimate 1 SLR50 50 Puget Sound Year 2100 very high estimate 1 SLR (5m) Year 2100 global estimate 2 1 Mote et al. (2008) Sea level rise in the coastal waters of Washington State. 2 Hansen (2007) Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Multiple spatial scales Forward projecting time scale Variety of potential impact factors
6 Regional Analysis: Phase 1 Data Inputs: SLR estimates, plus DEM Tides Land Cover
7 Regional Methodology
8 Regional Results **Results are preliminary and give a broad picture of the areas most likely to be affected as a result of projected sea level rise. Data is intended to generally project flooding impacts and is not meant for use in identifying specific properties at risk due to sea level rise. The results reflected herein may be updated based on the availability of new data. Authors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no liability for the results of any actions taken or other information developed based on this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights.
9 Regional Results
10 Regional Results
11 Regional Results Distribution of Inundation Impacts by County Sea Level Rise (in inches above current) County 13" 22" 38" 50" 197" Clallam ,027 1,448 1,789 3,967 Island 855 1,432 2,236 2,916 6,594 Jefferson ,232 1,579 4,003 King ,259 Kitsap ,288 1,725 5,873 Mason 803 1,288 1,989 2,622 8,911 Pierce ,252 12,774 San Juan Skagit 3 2,172 10,716 15,292 17,050 33,827 Snohomish 4,712 5,780 9,411 10,705 26,875 Thurston ,344 1,669 4,848 Total 11,183 23,403 35,703 42, ,179 1 The eastern portion of Clallam County was included in this analysis, but the western part (coastal areas of the western Strait of Juan de Fuca) was not. 2 Only a very small portion of the southern end of San Juan County was included in this analysis. 3 Northern portions of Skagit County were not included in this analysis.
12 Regional Results Southern Skagit County farmland
13 Regional Results Developed areas in Seattle
14 Regional Analysis: Next Steps Phase 2: Develop a CVI Model Geologic Variables Coastal geomorphology Historical shoreline change Coastal slope Physical Process Variables Relative sea level change Mean significant wave height Mean tidal range Thieler & Hammar-Klose (1999) USGS Open-File Report
15 Local Analysis
16 Modeling Inundation Extract values from DEM for ea. scenario
17 Results Anderson Island DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
18 Results Anderson Island DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
19 Results Anderson Island 197 DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
20 Results Port of Tacoma DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
21 Results Port of Tacoma DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
22 Results Port of Tacoma 197 DISCLAIMER: All maps on slides show theoretical results of sea level rise scenarios on coastal areas of Pierce County. The maps are intended to give the viewer an idea of possible impacts under certain scenarios, and are not to be used as planning products. The scenarios and associated analysis methods do not account for all factors related to local impacts of a rising sea level. These maps in no way demonstrate risk to the general public. Pierce County and the City of Tacoma have no association with this project. Scenarios are based on 6ft cell-size DEM tiles, source: Puget Sound LiDAR Consortium.
23 Modeling Impacts Land Cover Analysis Mask using SLR layer Similar process using Landuse layer
24 Impact, by Landuse Type Sea Level Rise Scenarios Landuse Classification Group (%) 13" 22" 38" 50" 197" Unknown Residential Commercial/Service Industrial Transportation, Communication, Utilities Government Services Public Facilities Recreation Agricultural Undeveloped/Open Space Residential land: ~20% of land lost at each rise Gradual increase in percentage of Industrial, Commercial, & Trans/Comm/Util classified land as SLR increases Undeveloped & Rec land > 50% of early SLR scenarios; only 25% of 197 SLR
25 Next Steps Model/Repeatable Process: Expand model to full project scope Refine inputs & tool choices Add user parameters Impact Analysis - Categories: Ecology, Infrastructure, Population, Culture Documentation
26 QUESTIONS?
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