NBC4NY/WSJ/MaristPol NewYorkLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters. April2016

Transcription

1 NBC4NY/WSJ/MaristPol NewYorkLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters April2016

2 How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist New York Poll of 2,679 Adults This survey of 2,679 adults was conducted April 10 th through April 13 th, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC 4 New York and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of New York were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English or Spanish by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of New York from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. This landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Both samples were matched by telephone number to a voter registration list for the state. Voter information was appended to each matched case. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and region except for race, which is from the 2010 census. Results are statistically significant within ±1.9 percentage points. There are 2,260 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±2.1 percentage points. There are 544 voters in the potential Republican primary electorate. The potential Republican primary electorate in New York includes all registered Republicans. There are 1,065 voters in the potential Democratic primary electorate. The potential Democratic primary electorate in New York includes all registered Democrats. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±4.2 percentage points and ±3.0 percentage points, respectively. There are 313 likely Republican primary voters and 591 likely Democratic primary voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 New York Republican/Democratic Presidential Primary based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±5.5 percentage points and ±4.0 percentage points, respectively. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations. NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist Poll New York April

3 New York Adults New York Registered Voters New York Potential Republican Electorate New York Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Potential Democratic Electorate New York Likely Democratic Primary Voters Party Registration Party Identification Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Race Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians U.S. Military Veteran Union Household Interview Type NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist Poll New York Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters Nature of the Sample - New York New York Adults New York Registered Voters Col % Col % Democrat n/a 5 Republican n/a Independent n/a 2 Other n/a Democrat n/a 4 Republican n/a 2 Independent n/a 3 Other n/a Very liberal n/a 1 Liberal n/a n/a Conservative n/a 2 Very conservative n/a 6% n/a Men 4 4 Women 5 5 Under or older to to to or older White 6 6 African American 1 1 Latino 1 Other New York City 4 3 Suburbs 2 2 Upstate 36% 4 Less than $50, $50,000 or more 56% 5 Not college graduate 5 5 College graduate 4 5 Married 46% 5 Not married 5 5 Yes No 8 8 6% Practice a 4 4 Does not Practice a 5 5 Protestant 2 2 Catholic 4 4 Jewish 1 1 No 1 1 Yes 1 No 9 9 Yes 2 No 7 7 Landline 46% 4 Cell Phone 5 5 NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist Poll New York Adults. Interviews conducted April 10th through April 13th, 2016, n=2679 MOE +/- 1.9 percentage points. New York Registered Voters: n=2260 MOE +/- 2.1 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist Poll New York April

4 Nature of the Sample - New York New York Potential Republican Electorate New York Likely Republican Primary Voters New York Potential Republican Electorate New York Likely Republican Primary Voters Col % Col % 10 56% 10 Party Registration Republican Party Identification Past Participation Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Race Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians U.S. Military Veteran Union Household Interview Type Democrat Republican 7 7 Independent 2 2 Other Yes 76% 8 No 2 Very liberal Liberal 3 3 Conservative 46% 4 Very conservative 1 1 Men 5 5 Women 4 4 Under or older to to to or older 36% White 8 8 African American Latino 6% Other New York City 2 1 Suburbs Upstate 5 6 Less than $50, $50,000 or more 66% 6 Not college graduate 5 5 College graduate 4 4 Married 6 6 Not married 3 3 Yes No Practice a 5 5 Does not Practice a 46% 46% Protestant 3 3 Catholic 56% Jewish 6% No Yes 1 No 8 8 Yes 2 2 No 76% 7 Landline 5 5 Cell Phone 4 4 NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist Poll New York Potential Republican Electorate. Interviews conducted April 10th through April 13th, 2016, n=544 MOE +/- 4.2 percentage points. New York Likely Republican Primary Voters: n=313 MOE +/- 5.5 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist Poll New York April

5 2016Republicanpresidentialprimaryincludingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowardacandidateorvotedabsentee DonaldTrump JohnKasich TedCruz Other Undecided LikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters NewYorkLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters 5 Stronglysupport 6 2 IntensityofSupport Somewhatsupport 5 PartyIdentification Republican 2 PastParticipation* Yes Conservative-Veryconservative 2 5 Conservative 56% TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters 6 Downstate 5 2 Upstate 5 Lessthan$50, HouseholdIncome $50,000ormore 2 1 Notcolegegraduate 5 1 Colegegraduate Under orolder 56% Men Women 5 2 Maried 5 1 MaritalStatus Notmaried 2 Practicea 5 1 DoesnotPracticea 5 2 Protestant Catholic U.S.MilitaryVeteran No 5 2 Yes 6 UnionHousehold No 5 Landline 5 1 InterviewType CelPhone 5 2 NBC4NY/WSJ/MaristPolNewYorkLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters.InterviewsconductedApril10ththroughApril13th,2016,n=313MOE+/-5.5percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 dueto rounding. NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist Poll New York April

6 Wouldyousayyoustronglysupport<candidate>,somewhatsupport<candidate>,ordoyouthinkyoumightvotediferentlyon PrimaryDay? Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport Mightvotediferently Unsure LikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters NewYorkLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters 6 DonaldTrump 7 PrimarySupport JohnKasich 2 PartyIdentification Republican % Conservative-Veryconservative 6 TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters 7 Downstate 6 6% Upstate 6 1 Lessthan$50,000 7 HouseholdIncome $50,000ormore 6 Notcolegegraduate 6 2 Colegegraduate 5 3 Men 66% Women 6 1 Maried 6 MaritalStatus Notmaried Practicea DoesnotPracticea 6 2 Protestant 5 3 Catholic 6 Landline InterviewType CelPhone 6 6% NBCNY4/WSJ/MaristPolNewYorkLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVotersincludingabsentee.InterviewsconductedApril10ththroughApril13th,2016,n=286MOE+/-5.8percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist Poll New York April

7 Whoisyoursecondchoiceforthe2016Republicanpresidentialprimary[includingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtoward acandidate]? JohnKasich TedCruz DonaldTrump Other Undecided LikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters NewYorkLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters DonaldTrump 4 3 PrimarySupport JohnKasich 5 3 PartyIdentification Republican 3 3 Conservative-Veryconservative 2 TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters 36% 3 1 Downstate 4 1 Upstate 3 Lessthan$50, HouseholdIncome $50,000ormore 3 1 Notcolegegraduate Colegegraduate Men Women 4 1 Maried 3 1 MaritalStatus Notmaried 4 Practicea 1 DoesnotPracticea 36% 3 Protestant Catholic 4 1 Landline 36% 1 InterviewType CelPhone 1 1 NBCNY4/WSJ/MaristPolNewYorkLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters.InterviewsconductedApril10ththroughApril13th,2016,n=279MOE+/-5.9percentagepoints. Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist Poll New York April