Global imbalances: current accounts and international asset positions
|
|
|
- Clemence Nichols
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Global imbalances: current accounts and international asset positions Stephen G Cecchetti Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department Bank for International Settlements Amsterdam, March 18, 2013 The views expressed in these slides are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank for International Settlements. Restricted
2 Restricted 2
3 Global imbalances: current accounts and international asset positions Stephen G Cecchetti Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department Bank for International Settlements Amsterdam, March 18, 2013 The views expressed in these slides are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank for International Settlements. Restricted
4 Motivation Global imbalances and currency wars Current account imbalances increased before the crisis And these imbalances risk disorderly adjustment But they are correcting slowly (and currencies are helping) Missing from this traditional view: international balance sheets Gross financial flows exploded before the crisis Risks accumulate on balance sheets And these gross positions are not declining Conclusion: we need to include gross flows in the policy debate Restricted 4
5 The traditional view Global current account balances As a percentage of world GDP; shaded area indicates projections Restricted 5
6 What are global imbalances? Large and persistent current account surpluses & deficits Export-led growth model in emerging markets Leverage led growth in advanced economies Consequences: - High debt in advanced economies - Large FX reserves in emerging economies Caution: Deficits and surpluses are often temporary or justified Fast growing countries (like 19 th century US) often run deficits Australia ran current account deficits for 100 years Restricted 6
7 Need for adjustment What is the problem with current account imbalances? Capital flow reversals Large and abrupt currency adjustment Competitive devaluations Protectionism What is the solution? Nominal adjustment (exchange rates) Real adjustment (domestic demand) Restricted 7
8 Current account adjustment Nominal adjustment CA=X-M Changing relative prices (REER) affect X and M Real adjustment CA=S-I Domestic policy affects S and I - Structural policies (taxes, social safety net) - cyclical policies (budget deficit) all work Restricted 8
9 Regional imbalances Current account balances As a percentage of GDP United States and East Asia 1 Euro area Rest of the world Restricted 9
10 Nominal adjustment: United States and China Real exchange rate adjustment: inflation and nominal exchange rates Real effective exchange rates = 100 Nominal exchange rate and inflation Cumulative m-o-m percentage changes Restricted 10
11 Real adjustment: euro area Real adjustment in the euro area, Contribution of changes in savings and investment to current account balance adjustment Percentage of GDP Restricted 11
12 What is missing? International balance sheets The problem with current accounts: net measure In and outflows are netted against one another But you cannot net the risks these flows crate Risk comes from gross exposure You could not net Lehman and AIG assets and liabilities Our example: the pension fund and the bank Balance sheets risks: maturity, currency, credit risk etc And these gross exposures dwarf current account balances Restricted 12
13 The missing view: international balance sheets International investment positions of all countries As a percentage of world GDP Global GDP ~US$75 trillion Restricted 13
14 National balance sheet positions and current accounts Gross flows for selected countries As a percentage of GDP Brazil China United States Restricted 14
15 International investment positions How large should international positions be? Theory: perfect cross-country risk sharing - Everybody owns the same global portfolio - Value of global capital stock around 400 percent of global GDP - Implies around 300 percent of global GDP balance sheets Practically it will be much lower due to home bias Practical approach: analyze costs and benefits Advantages: risk sharing, efficient capital allocation Disadvantages: contagion, large balance sheets, credit booms Restricted 15
16 Too much finance can be bad Productivity growth and financial sector share 16 OECD countries, Employment share of finance Growth in the financial sector Restricted 16
17 and gross flows can lead to too much finance directly Bank credit to non-banks At constant end-q exchange rate Ireland Latvia Restricted 17
18 and even more so indirectly International credit and credit expansion in emerging markets (Q Q2 2008) 1 In per cent Direct cross-border credit 2 Direct + indirect cross-border credit 3 Restricted 18
19 and even more so indirectly International credit and credit expansion in emerging markets (Q Q2 2008) 1 In per cent Direct cross-border credit 2 Direct + indirect cross-border credit 3 Restricted 19
20 Conclusion Current account imbalances are a problem and need attention The traditional view misses gross flows and gross positions Investment positions have grown enormously They carry large risks We need to refocus the policy debate from current accounts and currency wars to gross flows and international balance sheets Restricted 20
MGE #13 Capital mobility and interest rates
MGE #13 Capital mobility and interest rates Loanable funds market and interest rates in the long-run Capital flows and monetary policy, with fixed exchange rates The Mexican crisis of 1994 1 From the last
National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments
National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments Graciela L. Kaminsky Department of Economics George Washington University Lecture Notes 1 Questions The US current account deficit is about 7 percent
Fourteenth Meeting of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics Tokyo, Japan, October 24-26, 2001
BOMCOM-1/36 Fourteenth Meeting of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics Tokyo, Japan, October 24-26, 21 Use of Balance of Payments Statistics in the United Kingdom Prepared by the Office
THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences. Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research
THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research CONTENTS Causes background The crisis Consequences Role of economic policy Banking
Statistics Netherlands. Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet
Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet Introduction Since the outbreak of the credit crunch crisis in 2008, and the subsequent European debt crisis, it has become clear that there are large macroeconomic imbalances
Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia
Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University
Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade
Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade In addition to the influence of shifting patterns of growth in foreign populations and per capita income, cyclical macroeconomic factors associated with
Errors and omissions in the balance of payments statistics a problem?
Errors and omissions in the balance of payments statistics a problem? BY GUNNAR BLOMBERG, LARS FORSS AND INGVAR KARLSSON The authors work in the Monetary Policy Department. The balance of payments statistics
Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Period
Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Period A. Hakan Kara Research and Monetary Policy Department EAF Conference October 10, 2011 Contents I. Changing View of Central Banking II. Capital Flows to Emerging
1. HOW THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT HAS CHANGED
CHAPTER 1 In a universe with a single currency, there would be no foreign exchange market, no foreign exchange rates, no foreign exchange. But in our world of mainly national currencies, the foreign exchange
Chapter 12. National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments. Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop
Chapter 12 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop Preview National income accounts measures of national income measures of value of production measures
The Return of Saving
Martin Feldstein the u.s. savings rate and the global economy The savings rate of American households has been declining for more than a decade and recently turned negative. This decrease has dramatically
GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES. Textbook, Chapter 26 [pg 317-328]
![GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES. Textbook, Chapter 26 [pg 317-328]](/thumbs/27/11652136.jpg "GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES. Textbook, Chapter 26 [pg 317-328]")
GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES Textbook, Chapter 26 [pg 317-328] Name: Class: Learning outcomes: Identify government economic objectives. Explain the main stages of the business cycle. Explain
The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist
The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but
Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today.
Remarks by David Dodge Governor of the Bank of Canada to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec 11 February 2004 Adjusting to a Changing Economic World Good afternoon, ladies and
THE CURRENT ACCOUNT OF ROMANIA EVOLUTION, FACTORS OF INFLUENCE, FINANCING
THE CURRENT ACCOUNT OF ROMANIA EVOLUTION, FACTORS OF INFLUENCE, FINANCING Abstract Camelia MILEA, PhD The balance of the current account is a tool used to establish the level of economic development of
Politics, Surpluses, Deficits, and Debt
Defining Surpluses and Debt Politics, Surpluses,, and Debt Chapter 11 A surplus is an excess of revenues over payments. A deficit is a shortfall of revenues relative to payments. 2 Introduction After having
MGE#12 The Balance of Payments
MGE#12 The Balance of Payments The Current Account, the Capital Account and the Balance of Payments Introduction to the Foreign Exchange Market Savings, Investment and the Current Account 1 From last session
A BRIEF HISTORY OF BRAZIL S GROWTH
A BRIEF HISTORY OF BRAZIL S GROWTH Eliana Cardoso and Vladimir Teles Organization for Economic Co operation and Development (OECD) September 24, 2009 Paris, France. Summary Breaks in Economic Growth Growth
Tax planning may have contributed to high indebtedness among Swedish companies
Tax planning may have contributed to high indebtedness among Swedish companies Gunnar Blomberg, Jyry Hokkanen and Sofia Kåhre The European Commission has identified in a survey of potential imbalances
Factoring Exchange Rate Policy into your Investment Strategy: Risks Facing Andean Countries
Factoring Exchange Rate Policy into your Investment Strategy: Risks Facing Andean Countries September 2011 Dr. Eliot Kalter President, E M Strategies Senior Fellow, The Fletcher School Ekalter@EMStrategies.com
Monetary Policy in the Post Crisis Period: The Turkish Perspective
Monetary Policy in the Post Crisis Period: The Turkish Perspective Hakan Kara Economic Research Forum Conference İstanbul April 19, 2013 Outline 1. Motivation of the New Policy Framework 2. New Instruments
Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts
Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia has had a quick recovery from the recent recession and its economy is in better shape than before the crisis. It is now much leaner and significantly
Current account deficit -10. Private sector Other public* Official reserve assets
Australian Capital Flows and the financial Crisis Introduction For many years, Australia s high level of investment relative to savings has been supported by net foreign capital inflow. This net capital
Econ 202 Section 4 Final Exam
Douglas, Fall 2009 December 15, 2009 A: Special Code 00004 PLEDGE: I have neither given nor received unauthorized help on this exam. SIGNED: PRINT NAME: Econ 202 Section 4 Final Exam 1. Oceania buys $40
Economic Commentaries
n Economic Commentaries Sweden has had a substantial surplus on its current account, and thereby also a corresponding financial surplus, for a long time. Nevertheless, Sweden's international wealth has
A Brief Research Note on. Temasek Holdings. And Singapore: Mr. Madoff Goes to Singapore
A Brief Research Note on Holdings And Singapore: Mr. Madoff Goes to Singapore Christopher Balding HSBC Business School Peking University Graduate School cbalding@phbs.pku.edu.cn Short Abstract: Holdings
In 2012, GNP in constant prices increased by 1.8% compared with 2011.
8 Economy In 2012, GNP in constant prices increased by 1.8% compared with 2011. The building and construction sector fell by 7.7% in value added terms in 2012 compared to 2011. Manufacturing industry decreased
The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries
The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries Tatiana Fic National Institute of Economic and Social Research Objective The objective
2 Economic Perspectives. Introduction and summary
2 Economic Perspectives Introduction and summary International trade the current account and the capital account Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 3 percent of GDP 16 12 8 4 FIGURE 1 Imports, goods and services
Latin America s Debt crisis 1980 s
Latin America s Debt crisis 1980 s The LATAM Debt Crisis of the 80 s Why the region accumulated an unmanageable external debt? What factors precipitated the crisis? How sovereignties and international
Sovereign wealth funds and the exchange rate: comparing resource booms in Australia, Chile and Norway
Sovereign wealth funds and the exchange rate: comparing resource booms in, Phil Garton 1 The idea of establishing a sovereign wealth as a response to the challenges posed by the resource boom has attracted
ISBANK EARNINGS PRESENTATION 2016 Q1
ISBANK EARNINGS PRESENTATION 2016 Q1 2016 Q1 Recent Developments in the Economy Binler Global Outlook Main Indicators of Turkey US EA Moderate expansion in the US economy Solid labor market data Still
Recent Developments in Local Currency Bond Markets (LCBMs) 1. October 2013
Recent Developments in Local Currency Bond Markets (LCBMs) 1 October 2013 Given the importance of local currency bond markets (LCBMs), including in the context of the work now underway on financing for
The 1990 s Financial Crises in Nordic Countries
The 1990 s Financial Crises in Nordic Countries Seppo Honkapohja, Bank of Finland I. Introduction 19 crises in advanced countries since WWII (before the current) 1990 s crises in Finland, Norway and Sweden
Latvia during the global economic and financial crisis
Latvia during the global economic and financial crisis Second Japan Baltic Seminar 1 December 2009, Tokyo 1 Different experience behind, challenges ahead 15 10 5 Transition -56% in 1991-1993 GDP 1991-2012
Paying off government debt
G l o b a l F i n a n c i a l D a t a Paying off government debt Two Centuries of Global Experience Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data Using a data set on government debt that was
The EMU and the debt crisis
The EMU and the debt crisis MONETARY POLICY REPORT FEBRUARY 212 43 The debt crisis in Europe is not only of concern to the individual debt-ridden countries; it has also developed into a crisis for the
Government and public sector debt measures
Introduction Government and public sector debt measures 1. One measure of governments performance in managing the public finances is the level of public sector debt. The definition and responsibilities
Chart I.1. Difference between Primary Surplus (PS) and Bond Yield Spreads in Selected EU 1 Countries
LIST OF CHARTS Chart I.1. Difference between Primary Surplus (PS) and Bond Yield Spreads in Selected EU 1 Countries Chart I.2. Gross Debt Stock and Budget Deficits of Selected Countries as of 2010 1 Chart
Markets, Investments, and Financial Management FIFTEENTH EDITION
INTRODUCTION TO FINANCE Markets, Investments, and Financial Management FIFTEENTH EDITION Ronald W. Melicher Professor of Finance University of Colorado at Boulder Edgar A. Norton Professor of Finance Illinois
Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens
Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens Chris Siniakov Managing Director, Fixed Income International Bond Yields 4.00% 2-Year Government Yields as at 15 January 2015 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00%
Econ 336 - Spring 2007 Homework 5
Econ 336 - Spring 2007 Homework 5 Name MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) The real exchange rate, q, is defined as A) E times P B)
FINANCIALISATION AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES. Hamid Raza PhD Student, Economics University of Limerick Ireland
FINANCIALISATION AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES Hamid Raza PhD Student, Economics University of Limerick Ireland Financialisation Financialisation as a broad concept refers to: a) an
I. World trade developments
I. World trade developments World merchandise exports stagnated in value terms in 2012 while exports of commercial services increased by 2 per cent. Key developments in 2012: a snapshot Trade data List
Foreign Currency Exposure and Hedging in Australia
Foreign Currency Exposure and Hedging in Australia Anthony Rush, Dena Sadeghian and Michelle Wright* The 213 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Foreign Currency Exposure survey confirms that Australian
English Summary. Chapter I: Economic outlook. Denmark USA Euro area
English Summary The report contains three chapters: Chapter I gives an economic outlook for the Danish economy, Chapter II contains a long term projection for the Danish economy focusing on the development
Kiel. Policy Brief. The Importance of Investment Income and Transfers in the Current Account: A New Look on Imbalances. Rolf J.
Kiel Policy Brief The Importance of Investment Income and Transfers in the Current Account: A New Look on Imbalances Rolf J. Langhammer No. 48 May 2012 Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel Kiel Institute for
Why a Floating Exchange Rate Regime Makes Sense for Canada
Remarks by Gordon Thiessen Governor of the Bank of Canada to the Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain Montreal, Quebec 4 December 2000 Why a Floating Exchange Rate Regime Makes Sense for Canada
Global Factors in Capital Flows and Credit Growth by Valentina Bruno, American University Hyun Song Shin, Princeton University Griswold Center for
Global Factors in Capital Flows and Credit Growth by Valentina Bruno, American University Hyun Song Shin, Princeton University Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies Working Paper No. 237, June 2013
The global financial crisis is already causing a
Overseas Development Institute Background Note October 008 The global financial crisis and developing countries Which countries are at risk and what can be done? By Dirk Willem te Velde The global financial
Lecture 12: Benefits of International Financial Integration. Pros and Cons of Open Financial Markets
Lecture 12: Benefits of International Financial Integration Pros and Cons of Open Financial Markets Advantages of financial integration The theory of intertemporal optimization Other advantages Do financial
Fiscal sustainability, long-term interest rates and debt management
Fiscal sustainability, long-term interest rates and debt management Fabrizio Zampolli Bank for International Settlements Basel A presentation at the Dubrovnik Economic Conference 13-14 June 2013 The opinions
Financing the U.S. Trade Deficit
James K. Jackson Specialist in International Trade and Finance December 23, 2013 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov
SBERBANK GROUP S IFRS RESULTS. March 2015
SBERBANK GROUP S IFRS RESULTS 2014 March 2015 SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE FOR 2014 STATEMENT OF PROFIT OR LOSS Net profit reached RUB 290.3bn (or RUB 13.45 per ordinary share), compared to RUB 362.0bn (or RUB
Reading the balance of payments accounts
Reading the balance of payments accounts The balance of payments refers to both: All the various payments between a country and the rest of the world The particular system of accounting we use to keep
Chapter 17. Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention. Copyright 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.
Chapter 17 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention Slide 17-1 Chapter 17 Learning Goals How a central bank must manage monetary policy so as to fix its currency's value in the foreign exchange
What does the BOP Measure?
Balance of Payments - Concepts & Accounting Balance of Payments (a flow concept)» What does the BOP measure?» Accounting conventions» Important sub-categories of payments Current account Capital account
A negotiable instrument, akin to cash, which evidences a payment obligation to be met, on presentation, at designated dates.
GLOSSARY Australian dollar Long-Term Debt Portfolio The majority of the Long-Term Debt Portfolio consists of the domestic debt component known as the Australian dollar Long-Term Debt Portfolio. It consists
Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness, but rapid growth is a concern
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness,
MANAGING CREDIT RISK IN A VOLATILE MARKETPLACE
Export Forum 2015 October 14, 2015 MANAGING CREDIT RISK IN A VOLATILE MARKETPLACE Presented by: George Babeu, President One Source Risk Management and Funding, Inc. WHAT WE WILL DISCUSS Today s volatile
PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY
PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW February 2013 SUMMARY Key messages The purpose of our analysis is to highlight the risks that fiscal policy
The U.S. Current Account Deficit and The Dollar
The U.S. Current Account Deficit and The Dollar Olivier Blanchard paper available on web page 1 The U.S. current account deficit: The basic facts Large and getting larger: -5.7% in 2004, -6.2% in 2005?
The Balance of Payments, the Exchange Rate, and Trade
Balance of Payments The Balance of Payments, the Exchange Rate, and Trade Policy The balance of payments is a country s record of all transactions between its residents and the residents of all foreign
Fiscal policy and pension expenditure in Portugal
Fiscal policy and pension expenditure in Portugal Cláudia Rodrigues Braz 1 1. Introduction From the end of the 1990s until 2005 (with a break in 2002), there was a gradual deterioration in the structural
THE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA
PUBLIC BANK BERHAD ECONOMICS DIVISION MENARA PUBLIC BANK 146 JALAN AMPANG 50450 KUALA LUMPUR TEL : 03 2176 6000/666 FAX : 03 2163 9929 Public Bank Economic Review is published bi monthly by Economics Division,
Econ 202 Section 2 Final Exam
Douglas, Fall 2009 December 17, 2009 A: Special Code 0000 PLEDGE: I have neither given nor received unauthorized help on this exam. SIGNED: PRINT NAME: Econ 202 Section 2 Final Exam 1. The present value
How To Understand The Relationship Between A Country And The Rest Of The World
Lecture 1: current account - measurement and theory What is international finance (as opposed to international trade)? International trade: microeconomic approach (many goods and factors). How cross country
Practice Problems on Current Account
Practice Problems on Current Account 1- List de categories of credit items and debit items that appear in a country s current account. What is the current account balance? What is the relationship between
Monetary policy in Russia: Recent challenges and changes
Monetary policy in Russia: Recent challenges and changes Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) Abstract Increasing trade and financial flows between the world s countries has been a double-edged
Managing the Current Account Balance
Managing the Current Account Balance Abstract By Leigh Harkness This paper follows on from my paper on the Formulas for the Current Account Balance to show how the application of the Demand and Supply
STATEMENT 7: DEBT MANAGEMENT
STATEMENT 7: DEBT MANAGEMENT This statement discusses debt management, including maintaining the Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) market and the proposed investment of financial assets in the Future
Emerging Market Economies A Structural Reduction of Risk
Emerging Market Economies A Structural Reduction of Risk Alan Dorsey, CFA Managing Director, Head of Investment Strategy & Risk Juliana Hadas, CFA Senior Vice President Investment Strategy & Risk Parth
The CAO s Experience in Auditing Public Debt
The CAO s Experience in Auditing Public Debt Introduction :- The state general budget comprises of : administrative body budget, public service entity budget and local administration units budget. This
SRAS. is less than Y P
KrugmanMacro_SM_Ch12.qxp 11/15/05 3:18 PM Page 141 Fiscal Policy 1. The accompanying diagram shows the current macroeconomic situation for the economy of Albernia. You have been hired as an economic consultant
Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations
Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations Key points 1. The Japanese economy and IS balance trends From a macroeconomic perspective, the current account balance weighs the Japanese economy
EXTERNAL DEBT AND LIABILITIES OF INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. Mark Rider. Research Discussion Paper 9405. November 1994. Economic Research Department
EXTERNAL DEBT AND LIABILITIES OF INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Mark Rider Research Discussion Paper 9405 November 1994 Economic Research Department Reserve Bank of Australia I would like to thank Sally Banguis
2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013
2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%
Agenda. Saving and Investment in the Open Economy. Balance of Payments Accounts. Balance of Payments Accounting. Balance of Payments Accounting.
Agenda. Saving and Investment in the Open Economy Goods Market Equilibrium in an Open Economy. Saving and Investment in a Small Open Economy. Saving and Investment in a Large Open Economy. 7-1 7-2 Balance
11-1. Framework of Analysis. Global Economic Considerations. Figure 12.1 Change in Real Exchange Rate: Dollar Versus Major Currencies.
Framework of Analysis CHAPTER 12 Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis Fundamental Analysis Approach to Fundamental Analysis Domestic and global economic analysis Industry analysis Company analysis Why use
Abbey plc ( Abbey or the Company ) Interim Statement for the six months ended 31 October 2007
Abbey plc ( Abbey or the Company ) Interim Statement for the six months ended 31 October 2007 The Board of Abbey plc reports a profit before taxation of 18.20m which compares with a profit of 22.57m for
ELIMINATING THE NATIONAL DEBT Securing Your Financial Future
ELIMINATING THE NATIONAL DEBT Securing Your Financial Future Will I obliterate the national debt? Sure, why not? Pat Paulsen, comedian THE FINANCIAL SETTLEMENTS tax eliminates the need for income taxes
International Monetary Policy
International Monetary Policy 2 Preliminary concepts 1 Michele Piffer London School of Economics 1 Course prepared for the Shanghai Normal University, College of Finance, April 2011 Michele Piffer (London
How To Be Cheerful About 2012
2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? Bart Van Craeynest Hoofdeconoom Petercam Bart.vancraeynest@petercam.be 1 2012: crises looking for answers Global slowdown No 2008-0909 rerun Crises
Balance of Payments Accounting. (guidelines recommended by the IMF International Monetary Fund )
Balance of Payments Accounting (guidelines recommended by the IMF International Monetary Fund ) To understand the factors that affect international trade and lending first requires basic knowledge of Balance
The International Monetary Order and the Canadian Economy
Notes for Remarks by David Dodge Governor of the Bank of Canada to the Canada-U.K. Chamber of Commerce London, U.K. 28 June 2005 The International Monetary Order and the Canadian Economy As business people
Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States
WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the
International Economic Relations
nternational conomic Relations Prof. Murphy Chapter 12 Krugman and Obstfeld 2. quation 2 can be written as CA = (S p ) + (T G). Higher U.S. barriers to imports may have little or no impact upon private
Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013
Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013 World Stock Market Capitalization Year-end 2012 18.5% 9.6% United States International: Other Europe United Kingdom Japan Other Pacific
I. Emerging markets will not be initially subject to TLAC Liability structure: Business structure:
Dear FSB, This is Bank of China Luxembourg Branch. Thank you for your attention for our reply regarding TLAC just released a version for comments from your side. From the contents, TLAC (Total Loss Absorbency
CONTENTS MODULE 1: INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 4 MODULE 2: ETHICS AND REGULATION 6 MODULE 3: INPUTS AND TOOLS 8 MODULE 4: INVESTMENT INSTRUMENTS 12
SYLLABUS OVERVIEW 1 CONTENTS MODULE 1: INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 4 CHAPTER 1 The Investment Industry: A Top-Down View MODULE 2: ETHICS AND REGULATION 6 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3 Ethics and Investment Professionalism
January 29, 2009. Testimony of. Brad Setser Fellow, Geoeconomics Council on Foreign Relations 1. Before the Senate Budget Committee
January 29, 2009 Testimony of Brad Setser Fellow, Geoeconomics Council on Foreign Relations 1 Before the Senate Budget Committee The Global Outlook 1 The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional
Monetary policy, fiscal policy and public debt management
Monetary policy, fiscal policy and public debt management People s Bank of China Abstract This paper touches on the interaction between monetary policy, fiscal policy and public debt management. The first
Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014
Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn
UNCTAD s Seventh Debt Management Conference. Burgeoning Global Debt Impact on Developing Countries. Mr. Thomas Olofsson
UNCTAD s Seventh Debt Management Conference 9-11 November 2009 Burgeoning Global Debt Impact on Developing Countries by Mr. Thomas Olofsson Head of Debt Management Swedish National Debt Office The views
Asian Development Bank Institute. ADBI Working Paper Series
ADBI Working Paper Series Is It Desirable for Asian Economies to Hold More Asian Assets in Their Foreign Exchange Reserves? The People s Republic of China s Answer Bin No. 306 August 2011 Asian Development
How To Balance Current Account Balance
Global imbalances: current accounts and financial flows Stephen G Cecchetti * Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department Bank for International Settlements Remarks prepared for the
Cross-Border Capital Flows Statistics and Its Implication for Monitoring in China
First IMF Statistical Forum Statistics for Global Economic and Financial Stability Cross-Border Capital Flows Statistics and Its Implication for Monitoring in China Wang Xiaoyi State Administration of
China, The U.S. and Financial Crises. Jorge Salazar-Carrillo and Xu Li*
1 China, The U.S. and Financial Crises By Jorge Salazar-Carrillo and Xu Li* 1.) Since 1990, and up to 2009, China s Gross National Income has grown by 14 times in current U.S. dollars, following the Atlas
Businesses are affected by the economy An economy describes how a country spends its money This is determined by 5 factors
Economic Factors Businesses are affected by the economy An economy describes how a country spends its money This is determined by 5 factors Economic Growth Exchange Rates Rates Economic Factors Inflation