Population Grow~h. in India
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1 Population Grow~h in India
2 CHAPTER - IV POPULATION GROWTH IN INDIA INTRODUCTION Population growth is the most important set of events ever to occur in human evolution as it alters the way of life in every human civilization. It is indeed an inevitable force, since every social, political and economic problems that faces the world has demographic change as one of its root causes. Population growth as it affects the food security, energy reserves, environmental degradation, urbanization, international migration, housing, infrastructure is a problem of main concern. As population increases, the same rate of growth will produce a larger absolute increase in size from year to year. Human populations like all the living things, have the capacity for exponential increase. The population growth of the world began to grow more noticeable after the agricultural revolution. The Industrial revolution occurred in past because of this growth and after this, the size and rate of world population growth have increased even more rapidly. The rate of population growth in the world has declined since it attained its peak ie., 2.19 per cent per year in dropping to the current rate of approximately 1.25 per cent. Population growth is a main issue for developing countries as it plays an important role in delimiting the size of economic growth. The current world situation finds China and India as the most populous countries, followed by the United States, Indonesia and Brazil,
3 The various levels of social and economic development have implications for the growth and structure of populations of each country. Dramatic advances in health and family planning technolorn have been the fundamental forces motivating a demographic transition. This transition-from high to low mortality and fertility - has occurred in every country of the world. Prior to the demographic transition, both birth and death rates are high, hence the total increase of population is slow. As modernization begins due to economic development, death rates tumble first, while birth rates remain high, so that population growth reaches the stage of explosion. The length of the transition phase-when death rates are low but birth rates are high - and the rate of population growth during this period determine what size a population is likely to reach before stabilization. The population of selected countries by 2000 have been depicted in the table 4,l. The population of all these countries constitute nearly 60% of the world population. About 16 percent of the world's population in India. Even though U.S.A. occupies third position after India, the population of India is 3.5 times that of U.S.A. The gap between these two countries is alarming. The united states is growing more slowly than the other populous nations because its fertility is lower.
4 Table 4.1 Population of Selected Countries by 2000 S1. No , Country China India U.S.A Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Russian Fed. Bangladesh Japan Nigeria Population 1, , Source: Census of India 2001, Provisional Population Totals Series- 1,Paper-1 of India's population in 2001 census provisional population totals was estimated at crore : 53.1 crores males and 49.5 crores females. The decadal growth rate of was 3.7 times the population growth rate of ;l.g times the growth rate of ; and 1.6 times the growth rate of Nevertheless, India crossed one billion mark in May, China recorded a much lower annual growth rate of population (one per cent) during as compared to India (1.9 percent) during Population Growth in India Population census was taken in India for the first time in 1871 and there after for every ten years. During the population increased at the rate of 0.9 per cent, while during it increased by 9.4 per cent and in the next decade ( ) it declined to 1.0 per cent. India's population is very large relative to its resources and has a high growth rate.
5 The population of India, which at the turn of the twentieth century was only around nlillions increased by more than four times in a period of hundred years to reach 1027 million at the dawn of the twenty first century. Inclia achieved its highest decadal growth rate during 1971 (24.8 per cent). In absolute terms, the population has increased by a million during , which is more than the population of Brazil, the fifth most populous country in the world. The prevalence of high birth and death rates during the early years of the demographic history of India restricted the growth rate and the size of population. This phenomenon was highest during 1921 when the country registered a negative growth rate. India has passed through four phases of population growth from 1901 to The Indian Population growth is shown in Table 4.2 in terms of size and percentage (refer to Fig.4.1) Table 4.2 Source: Census of India, Provisional Population Totals, Series - 1, Paper - 1 of 2001.
6
7 I Phase: During this first phase, the population of India recorded a negative growth. The rates of growth prior to this period was highly unsteady due to fluctuation in mortality because of catastrophies like famines and epidemics. The decade can be considered as a normal decade since the crops were reasonably good and the absence of famines. Yet the population in the next decade viz., the country witnessed a negative growth of population due to heavy mortality. The plague and influenza which occurred in this decade said to have taken 15 to 16 million lives. The death rate during the decade was 48.6 per thousand against 42.6 in The birth rate was 49 per thousand which was more or less equal to death rate and as a consequence the growth of population during this phase was zero or negative. The decade experienced no specific regional patterns and growth rates were highly diversified. During the first two decades of the century, the northern zone suffered a net loss in population of 1.4 per cent due to various famines and epidemics. In the eastern states of Assam, Manipur, Nagaland experienced very high population growth rates during , The rapid population growth in Assam was mainly to heavy inmigration. The significant aspect of the first phase has been that a large number of states experienced either a low or a negative decadal variation in population.
8 During , the decadal variation was 5.75 per cent where as average annual exponential growth rate was 0.56 per cent. This rates can be considered as normal as there were no significant seasonal fluctuations or famines which covered high mortality. Up to 1921, the rate of population growth was unsteady. The decade experienced a negative rate of growth. The percent decadal variation was per cent and average exponential growth rate was per cent which was the lowest during the whole census history. Though agricultural conditions were favourable during this decade, the epidemic of plague swept millions of people. The first phase was characterized by slow growth which extended from , there was a net decrease of 0.3 per cent. During this period, the states like Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharastra, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan, Sikkim and Uttar Pradesh recorded a negative growth of population during either of the two decades. I1 Phase: The second phase started after 1921 and continued till During this period, the annual population growth rate increased by three times. Thus the year 1921 can be termed as a great divide in the demographic history of the country, because it marked a beginning of regular growth and also a rapid growth of population. The decade recorded an average exponential growth rate of During , the all-hdia decennial growth rate was 11.0 with the highest being Kerala 21.9 and the lowest being Uttar Pradesh with 6.7 per cent,
9 During the 30 year period of 1921 to 1951, the Indian population grew on an overall growth rate of 44 per cent. The population was substantially higher than the national average for some states like Assam, Kerala, Rajasthan, Tripura, Sikkim and West Bengal, the major factors responsible for this phenomenon being the migation of the workers into these areas from different parts of the country. In Bihar, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh the percentage increase in population was below the national average. The post 1921 period withnessed a rapid growth of population. The major causes of high mortality have been gradually brought under control and between 1921 and 1951 the country witnessed a gradual size in population growth rates. During this period the population increased from million in 1921 to million in The net gain of million people was more than eight times that of The fall in the death rate during was to the extent of 25.3 points when compared to the earlier decade. This fall is due to control of many diseases and epidemics such as plague, cholera, small-pox and malaria. Several anti-famine measures were taken up to control famines especially improvement of communications, During , the decennial growth rate was per cent and average annual exponential growth rate was 1.33 per cent. The lowest decadal growth rate was that of Orissa, with 10.2 per cent and the highest was that of Assam with per cent. Mortality recorded a further decline of 14 percent during this period.
10 During the decacfe , the average decennial growth rate was per cent and average exponential growth rate was 1.25 per cent. During this period, the all-india decennial growth rate was 21.9 per cent the highest being Kerala with ancl the lowest being Punjab with 1.8 per cent. Table 4.3 shows the different states showing different patterns of growth rates from 1921 to They are classified into five groups according to their type of' growth patterns. In group A states, the growth rates are steeply and continuously rising and average exponential growth rates are also very high. In group B states, at first growth rates would fall and then rise and average exponential growth rates are the highest when compared to other states. Under Group C, the growth rates of the states rises at first and then fall but at a slower rate. In group D states, growth rates rise and then fall to a still lower level than before and at a faster rate. In Group E, states, it is only Orissa state whose the growth rates fall continuously.
11 Table 4.3 Grouping of States According to their Pattern of Growth Group - A Madras Mysorezz West Bengal Group - B Andhra Pradesh Kerala Maharashtra Group - C Jammu & Kashmir Assam Bihar Madhya Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Guj ar at Rajasthan Group. D Punja Group - E Orissa AS1 India Decadal Growth Rates , Average exponential growth rates , Source : Computed from census figures. 84
12 Phase I11 : The year 1951 marked another land mark in the demographic history of India after the great divide of 1921 where there has been an acceleration in the population growth rate since that year. From 1951 onwards, India's population has been growing al: a phenomenal increase while during , the average decennial growth rate was 13.31, during it increased to 21.6 per cent. From Table 4.4, we can note that there has been a significant variation in the growth rates of the States and Union Territories during , and the highest growth rate among the states has been that of Tripura with per cent and the lowest was Tamil Nadu with per cent. During the first decade of the phase I11 ( ) the population growth was never than before and it did not happen in the preceding decades also, the decadal growth rate being per cent and absolute growth of 78.1 million population. The growth rate increased by 8.33 points. The year 1951 can be considered as the third landmark as accelerated decline in the Crude death rate was witnessed until This phase is characterized by a clearly marked increase in the growth rate as well as in the size of population. The Crude birth rate slightly increased in the following decade. Health, sanitation, food and nutrition improved during this phase very much. Since 1951, the demographic situation has proved to be very critical for the country as it is now facing a lot of problems caused by the unprecedented growth of population. The first decade of the phase-i11 ( ) experi.enced a rise in the Crude birth rate 91.7 per 1000) and a decline in the crude death rate (4.6 per 1000). The number of states with below 10 per cent decadal growth rate came down from 8 in to 2 in
13 The period was the continuation of the previous decade and the higher growth rates continued in more states. The north-eastern states constituted one region with highest rate of population growth (above 30 per cent). During the decade , however the disparity in variation has narrowed. High growth rates of population are observed for the north-eastern states of Nagaland, Tripura, Manipur, Assam, West Bengal and Haryana. Infact, these growth rates were greater than the growth rate of the country as a whole i.e., The States of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka and iegistered somewhat low rates of population growth. During this decade, many States and Union Territories showed an upward trend in the growth rate of population. Among the States Sikkim and Nagaland occupied the first and second places with and per cent respectively and Tamil Nadu recorded the lowest growth rates with per cent. The mean value in table reveals that there has been steep rise in population just within a short span of one decade. The decadal growth rate in 1971 (24.80 per cent) and 1981 (24.66 per cent) remained more or less the same (it is evident from 4.2). Phase IV The fourth phase is characterized by the declining trend of population growth. The population increase in absolute terms is the least in 2001 decade (17.6 million) when compared to the last five decades. During the decade , the decadal growth rate of India was per cent and average exponential growth rate was 2.11 per cent. Actually this growth rate was two times the growth rate of population of and five times the growth rate of (see table 4.5) India's population was crores according to 1991-census.
14 Table 4.4 Inter-State Variations in the Patterns of Population Growth in India, S1. No. States Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh N.A Assam Bihar Delhi Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Jammu & Kashrnir Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Mean C.V , Source : Computed from Census ~ables. 87
15 Decadal Variation Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar tioa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Jarnmu & Kashmir Karnataka Kerala 2 Madhya Pradesh z? --I : Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh West Bengal I
16 During the decade , the decadal growth rate of India was per cent according to the provisional population totals and the average exponential growth rate was 1.93 per cent. Table 4.5 shows that the growth rate was the highest in Nagaland with per cent and Delhi with per cent Meanwhile Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala recorded the lowest growth rates with 13.86, 11.9 and 9.42 per cent respectively. There was a significant decline in population growth rates of Andhra Pradesh, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Pondicherry, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep over the previoys decade. Meanwhile, growth rates increased in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat, Haryana, Nagaland, SiMrirn and Dadra and Nagar Haveli.
17 Rank , Table 4.5 Ranking of States According to their Population Sizes Average Percent to Statflnion Population in Percent exponential total Territory 2001 increase growth rate population Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Bihar West Bengal Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Karnatalca Gujarat Orissa Kerala Jherkhand Assam Punjab Waryana Chattisgarh Delhi Jammu & Kashmir Uttaranchal Himachal Pradesh Tripura Manipur Meghalaya Nagaland Goa Arunachal Pradesh Pondichery Chandigarh Mizoram Sikkim Andaman & Nocobar Islands Dadra & Nagar Haveli Daman & Diu Laskhadweep 166,052,859 96,752,247 82,878,796 80,221,171 75,727,541 62,110,839 60,385,118 56,473,122 52,733,958 50,596,992 36,706,920 31,838,619 26,909,428 26,638,407 24,289,296 21,082,989 20,795,956 13,782, ,917 8,479,562 6,077,248 3,191,168 2,388,634 2,306,069 1,988,636 1,343,998 1,091, , , , , , , ,059 60, Souroe: Govt. of India, Census of India, Final Population Totals of 2001 Census,
18 Sex ratio India shares a distinctive feature with the South and East Asian population of having adverse sex ratio i.e more males per females. The sex ratio had always remained unfavourable to females. This gap is attributed to women's lower status when compared to males. Sex ratio can be described as the number of females per 1000 males. In India, there were 35.5 million less women than men in The sex ratio has been declining almost consistently over the decades. It can be observed from Table 4.6. It was 972 in the 1901 census, which declined to 930 by The decline was sharpest during , when the sex ratio dropped by 11 points. It rose marginally to 93.4 by 1981 and again it declined to 927 in In 2001, the sex ratio again rose to 933 which is a good improvement. Tablo 4.6 Trends in the Sex Ratio in India : I I Females per 1000 Census Year Males I Source: Census of India, 2001, Provisional population totals, series I, paper 1 of
19 The declining sex ratio for females in India was attributed to causes like: (1) Women's lower status contributing to low age at marriage for girls, lower literacy and educational attainment, higher fertility and mortality levels during the reproductive ages. (2) Lesser attention paid to the female children when compared to the male ones. (3) Increasing incidence of female foeticide through the use of the modern techniques of sonography, by identifying the sex of the baby at early stages of pregnancy. The increase in sex ratio during can be seen as a promising sign of improvement in the status of women, While the world average of sex ratio is 986 females per 1000 males, most of the nations like Pakistan and China have shown an improvement from 1950 to 2000, India is the only exception, where the sex ratio is declining countinuously. The table 4.7 reveals that in rnany'states, especially the large Hindispeaking ones, the sex ratios have been quite low over time and still there have been further declines between 1981 and In Bihar it fell from 946 to 911 only in Kerala has the population favoured females throughout the period. The trends in sex ratio for some of the major states and Union territories have shown a downward slide. The major states that are largely responsible for the decline in the overall sex ratio in India are Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkand, Orissa, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Mahastra and Tamil Nadu. Although the sex ratio in Punjab has been consistently low, it has shown a long-term upward trend and has not contributed to the overall deterioratio in sex ratio of the country. In Rajasthan, the sex ratio kept fluctuating in a narrow band and always remained at a low level. Haryana, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are the states where the sex ratio has remained more or less stagnant, (See Fig. 4.3).
20 Table Sex Ratios in the States Source: Census of India, 2001, Provisional Population Totals, Series I, Paper 1 of
21
22 The overall sex ratio of India is dependent on the sex ratio obtained in different states and Union territories and their relative weights in terms of size of population. At the Census of India, 2001, the sex ratio among the major states ranged from 861 in Haryana to 1058 in Kerala. In 1991 also, Haryana with a sex ratio of 865 was at the bottom with Kerala 1036 at the top. The changes in sex ratio overtime, therefore, are dependent on the changes in the ratios of the individual States and Union territories and their relative share in population. It is clear that the number of States and Union Territories with sex ratio of below national average has increased from seventeen in 1991 to eighteen in In fact the proportion of population below the national average has increased from 64 per cent to about 60 per cent. The highly populated States like Uttar Pradesh, ~ihai, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh which together constituted about 34 per cent of India's population in 1991 and increased to 36 per cent in Therefore, the increase in the overall sex ratio is possibly due to the relative larger increase in the sex ratio of these four states. The sex ratio of Indian population has always been of topical interest for the demographers, social scientists, women's group, research scholars and various planners and policy makers. Several reasons are adduced to explain the consistency low levels of sex ratio and their further decline in the country.
23 1. Neglect of the girl child resulting in their higher mortality at younger ages. 2. High maternal mortality rate 3. Sex selective female abortions 4. Female infanticide 5. Change in sex ratio at birth The imbalance in the number of males and females begins in the beginning. It is now a well established law of nature that the males exceed females at the time of birth. It is believed that generally female births take place for every 1000 male births, which in effect would mean that there is a deficiency of about 50 females per 1000 males in every birth cohort, this is unalterable content. Density Density is defined as the number of pensions per square kilometer. One of the important indices of population concentration is the density of population. The population density of India in 2001 was 324 persons per square kilometre, which means that now 57 more people live in a square kilometer area in the country than the number that lived a decade ago. Table 4.8 explains that the density in 1901 was as low as 77 and it steadily increased from one decade to another to reach 324 in The persons living per sq. km. has increased by 2.13 per cent in 2001 as compared to resources etc. The states and Union territories of the country largely varied in terms of density,
24 Table 4.8 Density of Population, India: Census Density (Per Sq.km) Source: Census of India 2001, Provisional Population Totals, Series -1, Paper-1 of The table 4.9 deals with the ranking of States and Union Territories of India in desending order of densities. The density of population within the country widely varies across the States and Union Territories. It varied from 13 persons per sq.km. in Arunachal Pradesh to 9294 in Delhi. The density of population has been increased in all States and Union Territories of the country between 1991 and 2001 but huge variations in the rate of increase in density has been observed. Among the major states, West Bengal is still the most thickly populated, where population density has gone up from 767 in 1991 to 904 in However, among the major states, Bihar is now the second highest densely populated state pushing Kerala to the third place in terms of ranking. Similarly, Punjab and Tamil Nadu have at present interchanged their relative position of loth and llth ranks respectively in 1991, (See Fig. 4.4).
25 Table 4.9 Ranking of States and Union Territories by Density : 1991 and 2001 Source: Census of India 2001, Provisional Population Totals, Series -1, Paper-1 of 2001.
26 Density A N g g g g - t C O ( c l c O O O C c < Uttar Pradesh 5? 3 Dadra & Nagar Haveli (P U) Andhra Pradesh
27 Literacy Literacy and education are reasonably the good indicators of development in a society. Spread and diffusion of literacy is generally associated with essential traits of civilisation such as modernisation, urbanisation, industrialisation, communication and commerce. Higher levels of education and literacy leads to a greater awareness and also contributes in improvement of economic conditions. It acts as a catalyst for social upliftment enhancing the returns on investments made in almost every aspect of development effort, be it population control, health, hygiene, environmental degradation control, empowerment of women and weaker sections of the society. Literacy is one of the important social characteristics on which information is obtained on every individual in the census. A person aged seven and above, who can both read and write with understanding in any language, is treated as literate. It is decided at the 1991 census that all children in the age group 0-6, will be treated as illiterates by definition and the population aged seven years and above only is to be classified as literate. The same criterion has been retained at the census of India, 2001, also. The Table 4.10 shows the literacy rates for the country since Literacy rates in the table for the 1951, 61 and 71 censuses relate to the population aged five years and above, where as for the 1981, 91 and 2001 relate to the population seven years and above. The literacy rate for the country in 2001 is per cent, for males per cent and for females per cent. Thus three-fourths of the male and more than half of the female population are literate in the country. India has continued its improving in literacy rate by recording a jump of percentage points
28 from in 1991 to in There is increase in the percentage points of female literacy in the order of and respectively. The difference in male-female literacy rates of percentage points increased from in 1951 to in But in 1991 this difference was marginally reduced to per cent and in 2001 it is further declined to per cent, (See Fig.4.5). k Year Source: Table 4.10 Literacy Rates in India : Persons Males Females Male-female gap in Literacy rate Census of India 2001, series-1, Provisional Population Totals, Paper - 1 of 2001, Registrar General and Census commissioner, India. The Table 4.11 gives a ranking of states and union territories by literacy rates of 1991 and 2001 along with decadal difference. The first rank is occupied by Kerala followed by Mizoram and Lakshadweep in 1991 and they have retained the same position in 2001 census also. Chandigarh has moved down from 4th rank in 1991 to 6th rank in 2001, while Goa has jumped up from 5th rank in 1991 to 4th rank in 2001, All the States and Union Territories without exception have shown increase in literacy rates during The States and Union Territories which are moved forward by more than 15 percentage points during are Rajasthan (22.48 per cent), (22.27 per cent), Madya Pradesh (19.44 per cent) Dadra and Nagar Haveli (19.33 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (17.02 per cent) and Uttar Pradesh (16.65 per cent).
29
30 tanking of States and India 1 States I Union territories INDIA Jammu & Kashmir Himachal Pradesh Punjab Chandigarh Uttaranchal Haryana Delhi Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Bihar Sikkim Arunachal Pradesh Nagaland Manipur Mizoram Tripura Meghalaya Assam West Bengal Jarkhand Orissa Chhatisgarh Madhya Pradesh Gujarat Daman & Diu Dadra & Nagar Haveli Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Goa Lakshadweep Ker ala Tamil Nadu Pondicherry Andaman & Nicobar Islands Table : 4.11 Jnion territories bs Literacv Rates, 1991 and Literacy rate Rank Decadal - difference in Literacy rate Source: Registrar general, various census years.
31 The table 4.12 illustrates that the absolute number of illiterates in the country as a whole declined in this decade by 31,958,336. The minimum share in this decline came from Andhra Pradesh, i.e., 16.7 per cent of the total decrease in the illiterates during The States of Uttar Pradesh, Maharastra Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu accounts for threefourths of the percentage decrease in the total number of illiterates in the country, where as they share half of country's population. But Bihar increased its number of illiterates negatively contributing by 9.33 per cent followed by Delhi.
32 Table Number of Illiterates, Decadal decrease in Illiterates and Percentage contribution in decrease : 1991,2001 Source: Census of 2001, Provisional Population Totals, Series-1, Paper 1 of 2001.
33 Conclusion During the early part of the twentieth century, the country witnessed fluctuations in population growth but ultimately more or less stagnant growth of population is observed by the end of The prevalence of high birth and death rates during the early part restrictd the growth rate and the size of population. Since 1951, the country's population is increasing, rapidly during and then at a slower rate during the last phase. At present, India has been growing at a faster rate in absolute terms but it is growing at a slower pace than before in terms of percentage. All the states in the country are grouped into certain categories on the basis of their population growth rages in various census decades. The density is increasing abnormally due to stagnant land area and increasing population pressure the sex ratio is also decreasing slowly, which is having variations in all the States and Union Territories linked up with their progress in development. The literacy rates also increasing but the rate of increase in the literacy of males is faster than females.
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