National Risk Assessment: Project Overview

Transcription

1 National Risk Assessment: Project Overview Dr. Jianping Yan Disaster Risk Assessment Specialist

2 Topics Purposes and Objectives Scope and Context Main Activities Key Outputs Implementation Work timeline

3 Purposes and Objectives National DRR strategies National planning development programs and investments Budget and resource allocation Users/Beneficiaries National authorities National institutions and agencies International Organizations

4 Scope Multi-hazard Geological Hazards Earthquake (primary) 1:150,000 Landslides (secondary) 1:50,000 Hydro-meteorological Hazards Floods scale 1:150,000; Drought scale 1:150,000 or smaller; Tropical Cyclones scale 1:100,000

5 Mayon Mudflow Disaster, Philippines Mayon Volcano: the most active volcano in Philippines, 150 miles south of Manila, > 2400 meters (~8,000 feet) tall. Recent eruption: February 28, 2006 Typhoon Durian: Nov. 30, 2006 Torrential rains Mudslides Death Toll: >1000 Houses destroyed: 66,191 + buried houses

6 Lesson learnt from Mayon Mudflow Disaster, Philippines Disaster preparedness based on multihazards assessment; Hazard assessment from a systems perspective.

7 Scope Multi-sectors Population urban, rural (age, gender, income) Buildings residential, commercial, industrial, public Livelihoods industry, agriculture, tourism Critical facilities health system, schools, governmental, police, fire stations Lifelines roads, bridges, airports, ports, railways, sewage, telecommunications, power, etc

8 Main Activities - Overview Step 1: Country situation analysis (SIERA) Step 2: Hazard assessment Step 3: Exposure assessment Step 4: Vulnerability assessment Step 5: Risk analysis and profiling Step 6: Identification of risk reduction measures Step 7: Delineation of National DRR strategy

9 Main Activities - Tasks Step 1: Country Situation Analysis Systematic inventory of existing data and studies Integration of existing studies Gap and needs identification Coordination mechanism Step 2: Hazard Assessment Identification of sources (active seismic faults, cyclone track patterns, precipitation patterns) Identification of hazard-prone areas based on historic data Characterization of hazards (in terms of probability and intensity) Development of probabilistic hazard and event intensity maps (return periods = 25, 50, 100, 200, 500 years); Development of hazard zonation maps

10 Main Activities - Tasks Step 3: Exposure Assessment Categorization of exposed elements at risk (population, infrastructure, livelihoods, critical facilities lifelines) Exposure surface models using dasymetric mapping method or grid approach Step 4: Vulnerability Assessment Compilation of vulnerability functions for all the categories of elements at risk (based on historic damage patterns) Comprehensive damage-loss algorithms for each category of elements at risk

11 Main Activities - Tasks Step 5: Risk Analysis and Profiling Probable maximum losses (PMLs) (return periods = 25, 50, 100, 200, 500 years); Risk expressed in terms of human impact (mortality) and financial impact (absolute value and fraction of GNP) Risk aggregation to district or county level Risk profiling by hazard, district, return period Thematic risk profiles (social, productive, infrastructure) Composite risk profiles (multi-hazard) for relevant return periods

12 Main Activities - Tasks Step 6: Identification of risk reduction measures High-risk areas Risks to avoidance, reduction, transfer, retention (preparedness) Cost-effective analysis Step 7: Delineation of National DRR strategy Priority, budget allocation, programmes

13 Key Results National disaster risk profiles including national risk atlas Comprehensive DRR measures National standards and methodologies National Risk Information System Risk assessment results are readily available to all potential users National capacity National team for risk assessment Understanding and application of risk assessment results

14 Implementation How long will it take? 24 months Who implements NRA? National working group under supervision of relevant national authorities and with extensive supports from Multistakeholders

15 Who should be involved

16 Project Components Component 1: CSA using SIERA Component 2: Data integration & production Component 3: Disaster risk mapping & profiling Component 4: Application development Component 5: Outreach

17 Work Plan

18 Summary NRA is a strategic risk assessment aiming to support national decision/policy makers to shape national DRR strategy and action plans NRA should be multi-hazard, and comparable and aggregatable NRA is a 7-step process An integrated governance and coordination mechanism is highly essential to the success of a NRA exercise.

19 Any Questions?