A more sustainable path to development

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1 A more sustainable path to development World Energy Trilemma Joan MacNaughton Colorado, March 2014 World Energy Council 2013

2 Energy Demand and GDP Trillion dollars (2012) Mtoe GDP: OECD Non-OECD TPED (right axis): OECD Non-OECD World Energy Council

3 Balancing the Energy Trilemma ENERGY SECURITY ENERGY EQUITY ENVIRONMENT AL SUSTAINABILITY World Energy Council

4 Europe All Europe Eastern Europe Western Europe Eastern Europe Austria Luxembourg Albania Poland Belgium Malta Bulgaria Romania Cyprus Netherlands Croatia Russia Denmark Norway Czech Rep. Serbia Finland Portugal Estonia Slovakia France Spain Hungary Slovenia Germany Sweden Latvia Ukraine Greece Switzerland Lithuania Iceland Turkey Macedonia Ireland United Kingdom Moldova Italy Montenegro Western Europe World Energy Council 2013

5 North America North American countries Canada Mexico United States World Energy Council 2013

6 Middle East and North Africa All MENA GCC countries Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Non-GCC countries Algeria Syria Egypt Tunisia Iran Yemen Israel Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco GCC countries Non-GCC countries World Energy Council 2013

7 Latin America and the Caribbean LAC countries Argentina Barbados Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Jamaica Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela World Energy Council 2013

8 Asia All Asia Low-GDP countries High-GDP countries Low-GDP countries High-GDP countries Armenia Australia Azerbaijan Hong Kong, China Bangladesh Japan Cambodia Korea (Rep.) China Malaysia Georgia New Zealand India Singapore Indonesia Taiwan, China Kazakhstan Mongolia Nepal Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Tajikistan Thailand Vietnam World Energy Council 2013

9 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan African countries Angola Benin Botswana Ghana Kenya Madagascar Cameroon Malawi Chad Mauritania Congo (Dem. Rep.) Mauritius Côte d Ivoire Mozambique Ethiopia Namibia Gabon Niger Nigeria Senegal South Africa Swaziland Tanzania Zimbabwe Zambia World Energy Council

10 An opportunity for developing countries Post-industrial countries 3 8 Energy equity dimension performance Most emerging, industrialising countries 2a 2** 2b Some emerging Hydro-powered countries 2 Pre-industrial countries Environmental sustainability dimension performance World Energy Council

11 Thank you Any questions? World Energy Council 2013

12 Outperformers and underperformers Environmental sustainability High Low Colombia Sweden Austria Norway France Paraguay Latvia Ireland Mauritius Brazil Panama UK Portugal Spain Georgia Italy Barbados Lithuania Ecuador Luxembourg Germany Malawi Japan Belgium Netherlands Guatemala Argentina New Zealand Sri Lanka Cameroon Slovenia Hungary Peru Dominican Rep. Hong Kong Low Botswanta Malta Greece Cyprus Israel Tunisia Namibia Chad Singapore Turkey Mexico Morocco Philippines Bangladesh Lebanon Underperformers: countries that perform significantly worse than expected on environmental sustainability given their level of energy consumption Column of Expectation Chile Romania Taiwan Senegal Poland Australia Azerbaijan Yemen Cambodia Bolivia Armenia Algeria Swaziland Egypt USA Macedonia Finland Czech Rep. Malaysia Pakistan Thailand UAE Benin Indonesia Vietnam Bulgaria Jordan Jamaica Moldova Mauritania World Energy Council Canada Korea Nicaragua Qatar Total primary energy consumption / GDP (PPP) Outperformers: countries that perform significantly better than expected on environmental sustainability given their level of energy consumption Venezuela Niger Estonia Serbia Estonia Iran Oman India Kuwait China South Africa Nepal Kenya Côte d Ivoire Nigeria Russia Ethiopia Tanzania High Iceland Zambia Mozambique WEC member countries non-wec member countries

13 Energy Sustainability Index structure Total score Indicator type Dimension Indicators 1.1 Energy Security 25% Ratio of total energy production to consumption Diversity of electricity generation Distribution losses as a percentage of generation Five year CAGR of the ratio of TPEC to GDP Days of oil and oil product stocks 1.1.6a For importers Net fuel imports as a percentage of GDP 1.1.6b For exporters Fuel exports as a percentage of GDP 1/6 Each 1. Energy performance 75% 1.2 Energy equity 25% Affordability of retail gasoline Affordability and quality of electricity relative to access 1/2 Each Country performance 100% 1.3 Environmental sustainability 25% 2.1 Political strength 8.3% Total primary energy intensity CO 2 intensity Effect of air and water pollution CO 2 grams/kwh from electricity generation Political stability Regulatory quality Effectiveness of government 1/2 Each 1/4 Each 2. Contextual performance 25% 2.2 Societal strength 8.3% Control of corruption Rule of law Quality of education Quality of health 1/3 Each 2.3 Economic strength 8.3% Cost of living expenditure Macroeconomic stability Availability of credit to the private sector 1/3 Each World Energy Council

14 Five profiles of the energy trilemma highlight common challenges Illustrative members Key strengths Core Challenges Pack Leaders Switzerland, Denmark Overall performance and balance Ensuring achievement of 2020 climate targets Fossil-fuelled United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia Affordability and security of energy Energy and emission intensity challenges Highly-industrialised India, Mexico Energy security and strong GDP growth Rapid industrial growth and impacts Hydro-powered Brazil, Colombia Use of renewables leads to low emissions and higher electrification rates Improve energy access and affordability Back of the Pack Zimbabwe, Nicaragua Not yet locked in to fossil fuel heavy development path Investment challenges World Energy Council

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