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1 IHS ECONOMICS World Outlook World Economic Outlook 6 August 2015 ihs.com Simona Mocuta, Director Asia-Pacific Economics , simona.mocuta@ihs.com
2 Key global themes Divergence Disinflation Depreciation 2
3 Percent change DIVERGENCE: DMs trending up, EMs trending down Real GDP World Advanced countries Emerging markets Source: IHS 3
4 Percent change Emerging markets conditions range from subdued to tumultuous; India the new growth leader among BRICs Real GDP China India Brazil Russia Source: IHS 4
5 Why has growth in emerging markets disappointed? Cyclical forces Withdrawal of policy stimulus Excess capacity after investment booms Sluggish export markets Increased risk aversion Structural forces Slower labor force growth Slower pace of globalization Falling commodity prices Lack of market reforms 5
6 IHS weekly indexes, 2002:1=1 DISINFLATION: industrial materials prices have resumed downward path Industrial materials prices All industrial materials Chemicals Nonferrous metals Source: IHS 6
7 Percent change Global consumer price inflation has eased; getting close to a too much of a good thing situation? Consumer price inflation World Advanced countries Emerging markets Source: IHS 7
8 USD/local currency, 2013:1=100 DEPRECIATION: Many emerging-market currencies have depreciated sharply, commodity exporters hardest hit Weekly exchange rate index Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 China India Brazil Russia South Africa Source: IHS 8
9 Index, 2009 = 1.0 The dollar s real exchange value is appreciating, reaching a 12-year high against major currencies Real trade-weighted dollar index Major trading partners Other important trading partners Source: IHS 9
10 Percent of GDP Globalization and free trade: the 2016 theme? Merchandise exports World Asia-Pacific China Source: National Statistic Offices, IHS calculations 10
11 Percent China is NOT disengaging from the world economy Two measures of Chinese merchandise exports Share of China's GDP Share of world exports 11
12 Percent China s dominance in global trade has taken off Share of world merchandise exports China United States Japan 12
13 Monthly manufacturing wages, USD But China s rising costs are a threat Low cost locations no longer the same as decade ago Malaysia Indonesia Vietnam China Thailand Source: IHS 13
14 Asia s free trade commitment remains intact FTAs by country, 2015 Singapore India Japan Thailand Korea China Malaysia Australia New Zealand Indonesia Vietnam Pakistan Philippines Myanmar Laos Cambodia Sri Lanka Bangladesh Source: Asia Development Bank Under negotiations Signed, not yet in effect In effect 14
15 Korea s FTA race In effect with: EU (2011) US (2012) Turkey (2013) Australia (2014) Canada (2015) Signed with: New Zealand (March 2015) Vietnam (May 2015) China (June 2015) 15
16 A post-crisis progress report for the developed world Most countries have fully recovered; the notable exceptions are the Eurozone s peripheral countries. Fiscal deficits are decreasing in most countries. Monetary policies will remain accommodative in the near term. Household debt is on a better trajectory in most countries. Global current-account imbalances are manageable. Inflation remains mild. 16
17 Real GDP per capita in 2014 compared with 2007 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AUGUST 2015 Real GDP per capita Percent of 2007 level Australia Germany Sweden Japan Canada Switzerland United States Austria France Netherlands Norway United Kingdom Portugal Spain Italy Ireland Greece Source: IHS 17
18 Percent change North American business cycles are synchronized Real GDP United States Canada Mexico Source: IHS 18
19 Canada s economic growth by sector Real GDP and its components Percent change Real GDP Consumption Residential investment Business fixed investment Government consumption Exports Imports
20 Mexico s economic outlook: Cautious optimism Growth in consumer spending and fixed investment is expected to steadily pick up over the period. Mexico will benefit from strengthening growth in the US economy through trade, capital inflows, and remittances. Fiscal policy will need to tighten in , however, in response to lower petroleum tax receipts. Constitutional changes are opening Mexico s oil and gas industries to foreign investment and will eventually reverse the decline in production. Global automakers are investing in substantial new capacity in Mexico; Toyota will build a new plant in Guanajuato. Security risks and corruption scandals are taking a toll on business sentiment and investment. 20
21 Mexico s economic growth by sector Real GDP and its components Percent change Real GDP Private consumption Fixed investment Government consumption Exports Imports
22 Western Europe s economic growth is strengthening The Eurozone economy is slowly gaining momentum, led by an acceleration in consumer spending. Investment will strengthen as 2015 progresses, helped by rising business confidence, export growth, and easing credit conditions. The European Central Bank is expected to continue its quantitative easing through September High private and public debt levels will limit progress in some countries. The United Kingdom, Ireland, Sweden, Germany, and Spain will see healthy economic growth. Greece is running out of time to reach an agreement with creditors and avoid default; the probability of an exit from the Eurozone is 45%. 22
23 Eurozone economic growth by sector Real GDP and its components Percent change Real GDP Private consumption Fixed investment Government consumption Exports Imports
24 Percent of labor force European unemployment rates have diverged Unemployment rate France Germany Italy United Kingdom Source: IHS 24
25 United Kingdom outlook summary Real GDP growth (%, fiscal years) Consumer price inflation (%) Source: IHS Source: IHS Exchange rate per USD* Current-account balance** *Annual average, **Billions of US dollars Source: IHS Source: IHS 25
26 China s economic slowdown Real GDP growth held steady at 7.0% y/y in the second quarter, as services accelerated while industry and construction decelerated. Economic growth is expected to settle near 6.5% over the next few years, as deleveraging restrains investment. The rise and fall of stock prices, although worrisome, is having limited impact on consumer spending or business investment. Government actions to support the stock market are raising doubts about its commitment to financial sector reforms. Home sales are picking up, although high inventories will continue to dampen construction activity. Vast excess industrial capacity, financed by an explosion of debt, is the biggest threat to China s growth prospects. 26
27 China s stock market bubble is milder than in 2007 and linkages to real economy still small Weighted price/earnings ratio Source: IHS 27
28 Trillion CNY China s lending flows are decreasing, reflecting a sharp drop in shadow financing Lending flows * Bank loans (LCU and FX) Other financing Source: People s Bank of China, 2015 estimate by IHS based on data through June 28
29 China s shifting engines of growth External demand Domestic demand Rural Urban Industrial sector Services sector Fixed investment Consumer spending 29
30 China s economic growth by sector Real GDP and its components Percent change Real GDP Private consumption Fixed investment Government consumption Exports Imports
31 Percent change China s economic growth will downshift in the long run Real GDP and industrial production Real GDP Industrial production Source: IHS 31
32 India outlook summary Real GDP growth (%, fiscal years) Consumer price inflation (%) Source: IHS Source: IHS Exchange rate per USD* Current-account balance** *Annual average, **Billions of US dollars Source: IHS Source: IHS 32
33 Russia outlook summary Real GDP growth (%) Consumer price inflation (%) Source: IHS Source: IHS Exchange rate per USD* Current-account balance** *Annual average, **Billions of US dollars Source: IHS Source: IHS
34 Percent change Latin America s economic growth has stalled Real GDP Latin America excluding Mexico United States Source: IHS 34
35 Brazil s economy faces competitive challenges Brazil s economy and government are facing a crisis of confidence. After posting its first primary deficit in 20 years in 2014, the government is attempting to raise taxes and cut public expenditures. Low oil prices and corruption investigations at Petrobras are taking a toll on the energy and construction sectors. Currency depreciation and a drought pushed consumer price inflation up to 8.5% y/y in May, its highest rate since To fight inflation, the central bank has raised its Selic rate repeatedly. High labor and capital costs, complex taxation, and inadequate infrastructure are hurting international competitiveness. 35
36 Brazil outlook summary Real GDP growth (%) Consumer price inflation (%) Source: IHS Source: IHS Exchange rate per USD* Current-account balance** *Annual average, **Billions of US dollars Source: IHS Source: IHS 36
37 Summary Low oil prices, monetary stimulus in Europe and Asia, and better US growth will provide the foundations for a pickup in the global economy. The US expansion is led by domestic demand, with consumer spending and residential construction accelerating. The Eurozone is gaining momentum, helped by a weak euro. Contagion from the ongoing Greek situation will be limited. Emerging markets will not regain the peak growth rates of the 2000s. The Asia-Pacific region will make the strongest contribution to global economic growth. Risks abound: Chinese equity market rout, Greece (not resolved), wars in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China s rising debt, and central bank exit strategies. 37
38 IHS Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ); Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) ; Asia and the Pacific Rim: ; IHS TM ECONOMICS COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER. For internal use of IHS clients only. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This report is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at client s own risk. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS.
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