Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) version 2.0

Transcription

1 Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) version 2. CCAP Future Actions Dialogue Mexico City, November 24 Kevin A. Baumert World Resources Institute Overview Introduction to CAIT Insights from the Data Demonstration of CAIT Questions & Discussion

2 Introduction to CAIT Interactive database of GHGs & other policy-relevant indicators User-friendly interface includes: All major GHGs and sources Data for 186 countries (most UNFCCC Parties) Data for geographic, UNFCCC, and other Regions Analysis tools (e.g., trend, sector, or gas analysis) Purposes Promote greater access to information Support decision-making processes and help build capacity Provide common platform for data and analysis Policy neutral Data sources include: Introduction to CAIT International Energy Agency (fossil fuels) CDIAC (cement and fossil fuels) U.S. EIA (gas flaring and fossil fuels) U.S. EPA (non-) EDGAR (non-) Houghton (land use change and forestry) UNFCCC (all GHGs) World Bank, UNDP, WHO, etc. (socio-economic data)

3 Insights from the Data GHG Emissions, Population, GDP Gases Sectors Per Capita Emissions Historical Emissions Projected Emissions For more information, see forthcoming report from Pew Center on Global Climate Change (available at COP-1). GHG Emissions, Population, GDP A relatively small number of countries produce a large majority of GHG emissions. Most large emitters are also those with large populations or economies. % of Total Countries GHGs Population GDP Rest of World (16+) 1 to 25 Top 1

4 Top 25 Overlap Top 25 in Population Thailand Netherlands, Chinese Taiwan Top 25 in GDP Bangladesh, Nigeria, Viet Nam, Philippines, Ethiopia, Egypt, Congo USA, China, EU25, Russia, India, Japan, Germany, Brazil, UK, Italy, Mexico, France, Indonesia, Iran, Turkey Ukraine, Pakistan S. Arabia Canada, S.Korea, Australia, S.Africa, Spain, Poland, Argentina Top 25 Emitters Land-Use Change and Non- Gases from fossil fuels is the largest GHG emission source. But LUCF and non- together account for about 4 percent of global emissions. Uncertainties in LUCF and non- are high Fossil Fuels Land Use Change CH4 N2O F-Gases 18% 33% 16% 62% 58% 8% 41% 1% 4% 1. World 2. Developing Countries 3. LDCs

5 Land-Use Change and Non- Gases Inclusion of different gases and sources alters the North-South balance from Fossil Fuels Non- gases LUCF 6 2 Tons of C Equiv., Developed Developing USA China EU-25 Russia India GHGs by Sector Energy is the largest sector, followed by land use change and agriculture. Agriculture Transport, Electricity & Heat Manufact. & Const. 1% Fuel Combustion 11% Fugitive Emissions,, CH4, 4% Industrial, 3% Land Use Change & Forestry 18% Waste, 3% Int'l Bunkers, 2% Soils 48% Enteric Ferm. 32% Rice Manure 8% Road 85% Air 7% 5% CHP+ Heat 15% Rail 3% Electricity 71% Ener. Iron+ Steel 43% Chemicals Non- Metall ic Miner als 13% 9% Commercial 21% Residential 58% Ag. High GWP Gases 28% Cement () 6% Nitric Acid (N2O) Wastewater 39% Landfills 55% Sewage 6% Energy-Related Sectors

6 Agriculture Transport, GHGs by Sector Energy is the largest Enteric sector, followed by land use change and agriculture. Ferm. Soils 48% Enteric Ferm. 32% Rice Manure 8% Road 85% Soils (N2O) 48% Air 7% 5% CHP+ Heat 15% Rail 3% (CH4) 32% Electricity & Heat Electricity 71% Ener. Rice (CH4) Manure, 8% (CH4 & N2O) Iron+ Steel 43% Manufact. & Const. 1% Chemicals Non- Metall ic Miner als 13% Fuel Combustion 11% 9% Commercial 21% Residential 58% Ag. Fugitive Emissions,, CH4, 4% Industrial, 3% High GWP Gases 28% Cement () 6% Land Use Change & Forestry 18% Nitric Acid (N2O) Wastewater 39% Landfills 55% Waste, 3% Int'l Bunkers, 2% Sewage 6% Energy-Related Sectors Agriculture Transport, GHGs by Sector Energy is the largest sector, followed by land use change and agriculture. Road Electricity & Heat 85% Manufact. & Const. 1% Domestic Air, 5% Rail, 3% Fuel Combustion 11%, 5% Fugitive Emissions,, CH4, 4% Industrial, 3% Land Use Change & Forestry 18% Waste, 3% Int'l Bunkers, 2% Soils 48% Enteric Ferm. 32% Rice Manure 8% Road 85% Air 7% 5% CHP+ Heat 15% Rail 3% Electricity 71% Ener. Iron+ Steel 43% Chemicals Non- Metall ic Miner als 13% 9% Commercial 21% Residential 58% Ag. High GWP Gases 28% Cement () 6% Nitric Acid (N2O) Wastewater 39% Landfills 55% Sewage 6% Energy-Related Sectors

7 Per Capita Emissions Per capita emissions vary widely, although levels are generally higher in Annex I countries. 4 Tons of Carbon per Person Developed Developing 6 Gases 6 Gases + LUC Per Capita Emissions: Groups & Clusters Global Ranks in Parenthesis (for 6 gases, excluding LUCF) OPEC/Gulf - Qatar (1) - UAE (2) - Kuwait (3) - Bahrain (4) - S. Arabia (15) New World A-I - Australia (5) - USA (6) - Canada (7) - New Zealand (8) *Non-Party, Non-UN Small Islands - Antigua & Barbuda (11) - Trinidad & Tobago (13) - Singapore (14) - Nauru (22) - Palau (23) EITs - Czech Rep (17) - Russia (2) - Estonia (21) - Turkmenistan (28) - Kazakhstan (34) - Ukraine (35) A-I - Japan (37) - EU-25 (38) Middle Income NA-I - S. Korea (32) - Taiwan* (39) - S. Africa (45) - Argentina (58) - Malaysia (61) - Mexico (8) Large NA-I - China (97) - Indonesia (122) - India (14) 41% of global population

8 Cumulative Emissions, with & without Land Use Change (195-2) United States EU (25) Historical GHG Emissions Industrialized countries have the largest contributions to the historical GHG buildup. Which gases and sources should be examined? Russia China Indonesia from Fossil Fuels & Land Use Change from Fossil Fuels Only Brazil % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% Percent of World Total Cumulative Emissions, with & without Land Use Change (195-2) United States EU (25) Russia Historical GHG Emissions Which time period should be examined? Gases/sources & time period are more determinative than the indicator chosen (cumulative, concentrations, temperature) China Japan India % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% Percent of World Total

9 Projections of Future GHG Emissions Developing countries are expected to grow fastest; growth in U.S. emission is large. Millions of Tons of Carbon Equiv. 15, 13,5 12, 1,5 9, 7,5 6, 4,5 3, 1,5 57% 35% 84% 3, 2,7 2,4 2,1 1,8 1,5 1, % 118% 19% 42% 7% Projected emissions, Emissions 8% 68% 26% 124% World Developed Developing U.S. China E.U. FSU India Africa Brazil Japan Mexico * Projections cover six GHGs. Underlying data sources: EIA (Reference Case), POLES CAIT Products Demonstration of CAIT CAIT Excel (version 2. forthcoming, COP1) Version 1.5, released at COP9 CAIT Online (forthcoming, COP1) CAIT UNFCCC (beta version forthcoming, COP1) CAIT V&A (beta version forthcoming, COP1) COP1. Visit WRI kiosk for a personal demonstration.

10 Accessing CAIT Go to Register and Login to the site Download CAIT (Excel) and supporting documents, OR View CAIT-Online (as of COP1) Current test version: (in peer review) Thank you. Kevin A. Baumert World Resources Institute