Challenges to Private Investment in the Middle East North Africa Region. and what the World Bank is doing

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1 Challenges to Private Investment in the Middle East North Africa Region and what the World Bank is doing

2 Constraints to conducive private investment climate in the MENA region: Regional stability Macroeconomic stability and openness to trade Knowledge Infrastructure Governance and institutions

3 Regional Stability: MENA region has had a history of volatility which has dampened investment and tourism, and therefore job creation Conflicts: Lebanon, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran- Iraq war, Algeria, Gulf war Embargos Libya, Iraq Uncertainty September 11 aftermath, current Iraq uncertainty

4 Macroeconomic stability and openness to trade: Macroeconomic stability still dependent upon oil revenues, remittances, and aid Fixed exchange rates have meant competitiveness has been sacrificed Lagging indices of integration: -- Trade/GDP -- Lowest FDI in the world -- Low non-oil exports (about $40 billion, equivalent to Finland, despite 55 times the population)

5 Total exports as a share of GDP (percent) 60% Exports as a proportion of GDP, 2000 MNA versus the rest of the World 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MNA East Asia Europe & High Latin South Sub-Saharan Pacific Central Income/ America Asia Africa Asia OECD Caribbean Non-oil Oil

6 Knowledge Infrastructure MNA Lagging on knowledge indicators 5% world population; 0.7% Internet users: lowest score in the world R&D about 1/5 of industrialized countries 1998 book production UK 110,965 Poland 19,192 Iran 12,020 Turkey 9,313 Egypt 1,410 Morocco 894

7 3 HIGH 2 Governance and Institutions Perception Data on Governance: Voice and Accountability 173 Countries - ordered by income per capita (1997/98 comparator also shown for selected countries) Normalized Voice and Accountability Index YEMEN SYRIA DJIBOUTI IRAQ MOROCCO EGYPT ALGERIA IRAN JORDAN TUNISIA LEBANON LIBYA SAUDI ARABIA OMAN BAHRAIN QATAR UNITED KUWAIT ARAB EMIRATES -2 LOW -3 LOW INCOME Source: "Governance Matters II: updated Indicators for " by Daniel Kaufmann, Aart Kraay and Pablo Zoido-Lobaton, Jan 2002.

8 3 HIGH Perception Data on Governance: Control of Corruption 160 Countries- ordered by income per capita (1997/98 comparator also shown for selected countries) Normalized Control of Corruption Index YEMEN SYRIA IRAQ MOROCCO EGYPT ALGERIA IRAN JORDAN TUNISIA LEBANON LIBYA SAUDI ARABIA OMAN BAHRAIN QATAR UNITED ARAB KUWAIT EMIRATES -2 LOW -3 LOW INCOME Source: "Governance Matters II: updated Indicators for " by Daniel Kaufmann, Aart Kraay and Pablo Zoido-Lobaton, Jan 2002.

9 How did MNA get to the current situation? Oil windfalls and increased aid flows enabled governments to ease poverty and unemployment problems through subsidies and public employment The underlying structure of this Public Sector Model impedes the type of diverse, private sector-led growth needed for sustainable reductions in poverty Conflict provided rationale for not addressing domestic issues Consequences: State as paternalistic provider with large discretionary powers, escaping discipline and accountability; State inability to continue to provide services opens up opportunities for NGO service providers (often religious organizations) to build constituencies Weak governance Poverty of participation

10 Five major challenges Public sector reform and governance Politically and socially difficult shift from public sector dominance to private sector economic leadership Need to improve efficiency and effectiveness of public services Private sector development and job creation Essential to increase investment and create 4-5 million jobs each year to educated youth, a fertile ground for social unrest Education for the global economy From quantity to quality (tuning to labor markets; global citizenship; tolerance; etc.) Water management in a water stressed region Gender Unequal rights in many countries lowest female labor force participation in the world

11 The Bank s Response: New strategy and business model: Balancing strategic lending and knowledge Delivering knowledge through lending often not the most efficient vehicle The region wants knowledge for many reasons: information gaps, policy change, internal consensus building, international best practice, seal of approval to leverage other funds Response to demand for knowledge and advice: a new knowledge instrument with all the pros of lending - sustained engagement in activity preparation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation but without financial transfer if it is not needed.

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